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Caucasus Barometer 2011

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  • 1. Caucasus BarometerPublic Perceptions on Political, Social and Economic issues in South Caucasus Countries Some findings from the CRRC 2011 data 12 September, 2012թ. Yerevan CRRC Armenia crrc@crrc.am www.crrc.am www.crrccenters.org
  • 2. Methodology Almost 2,000 people in each South Caucasus country Representative of total adult (18+) population Proportionate representation of demographic and geographic groups Multi-stage cluster sampling Household selection: Random walk method Respondent selection: Kish table Face-to-face interviews in local languages
  • 3. Content• Life satisfaction and factors acting upon it• Living standards and migration trends• Attitude towards policy and public institutions• Nagorno Karabagh issue and possible solutions• External world perceptions• Level of happiness
  • 4. LIFE SATISFACTION AND FACTORSBEHIND
  • 5. N6. How satisfied are you with your own life as a whole (1-10, where ‘1’ means “Not satisfied at all” and ‘10’ means “Completely satisfied”, average score) 2010 2011 5.65.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.9 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 6. Armenia N6. How satisfied are you with your own life as a whole (1-10, where ‘1’ means “Not satisfied at all” and ‘10’ means “Completely satisfied” (% , by settlement type) Capital Other Urban Rural 35 30 23 13 14 14 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2Not satisfied 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Completely at all satisfied
  • 7. N1_1. Whether the following statement describes your feelings. There are many people I can trust completely, 2011 (%) Describes More or less describes Does not describe Armenia 30 41 29Azerbaijan 36 50 15 Georgia 28 54 18
  • 8. P5. What is the most important issue facing country at the moment 2011, (% ) Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia 44 Unemployment 28 55 16 Poverty 11 10 7 Rising prices / Inflation 4 5 6 Corruption 8 5 Low wages 4 1 4 Low pensions 4 4 4 Unsolved territorial conflicts 31 12 2 Lack of peace in the country 1 2 1Political instability in the country 2 1 1 Violation of human rights 3 1 1 Unaffordability of healthcare 4
  • 9. P6. What is the most important issue facing country at the moment, 2010 (%) Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia 45 Unemployment 17 52 10 Poverty 9 9 9 Lack of peace in the country 2 4 6 Corruption 9 6 Rising prices / Inflation 3 2 5 Territorial integrity 53 12 4 Low wages 2 2 Low pensions 2 3 2 Violation of human rights 1 2 Unaffordability of healthcare 7 2 Low quality of education 1 1 1Political instability in the country 2
  • 10. P5. What do you think is the most important issue facing Armenia at the moment? 2009-2011(%, first five issues) Unemployment 32 Corruption 192009 Poverty 12 Peace 5 Territorial integrity 4 Unemployment 45 Poverty 102010 Peace 9 Corruption 6 Rising prices / Inflation 6 Unemployment 44 Poverty 162011 Rising prices / Inflation 7 Corruption 6 Low wages 5
  • 11. J1. Share of Employed (%) 2010 2011 39 3938 38 38 30 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 12. LIVING STANDARDS ANDMIGRATION TRENDS
  • 13. C14. On which rung of this ladder do you think your household currently stands? (1- 10, 1 -lowest possible economic position in society, 10-highest possible position, average score, weighted by HH weights) 2009 2010 2011 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.14.0 3.9 3.5 3.5 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 14. C9. Household income last month 2011, (%, weighted by HH weights)More than USD 1200 USD 801–1200 USD 401–800 USD 251–400 USD 101–250 USD 51–100 Up to USD 50 0 49 33 32 32 28 26 23 16 15 11 7 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 15. J12-J13. Do you currently have any personal … (% of "yes" answers) Savings Debts 51 34 34 177 7 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 16. D20. If you had a chance, would you leave country for a certain period of time to live somewhere else? (% of "yes" answers) 2009 2010 2011 57 Armenia 64 60 47Azerbaijan 52 52 45 Georgia 47 47
  • 17. D21. If you had a chance, would you leave country forever to live somewhere else? (% of "yes" answers) 2009 2010 2011 25 Armenia 29 25 16Azerbaijan 17 20 11 Georgia 7 6
  • 18. ATTITUDE TOWARDS POLICY ANDPUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
  • 19. P1. Which direction your country’s domestic politics are going. (%) Politics is going in the right direction Politics does not change at all Politics is going in the wrong direction Dont know 2011 14 25 36 25Armenia 2010 18 32 36 14 2011 32 34 14 21Azerbaijan 2010 38 31 9 21 2011 47 11 17 24Georgia 2010 44 17 20 18
  • 20. Armenia P4. Trust Toward Institutions, 2011 (%) Fully trust Somewhat trust Neither trust nor distrust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust Don’t knowReligious institutions to which you … 44 31 11 5 6 3 Army 33 31 12 9 13 2 Healthcare system 15 33 20 13 16 1 Educational system 13 33 23 13 13 4 Banks 12 35 22 10 12 9 Ombudsman 11 23 24 8 13 22 European Union 10 26 26 7 11 20 President 10 24 21 15 24 5 United Nations 10 26 26 7 10 21 Police 8 21 25 18 22 6 Executive government 6 20 23 18 26 7 Court system 6 16 23 19 23 13 Media 5 28 34 14 15 3 Local government 5 28 34 14 15 3 Parliament 5 17 25 18 28 6 NGOs 5 18 30 11 14 22
  • 21. P4. Level of trust toward Army (5-point scale, where ‘1’ means “Fully distrust”, and ‘5’ means “Fully trust”, average score) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20114.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.6 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 22. P4. Level of trust toward President (5-point scale, where ‘1’ means “Fully distrust”, and ‘5’ means “Fully trust”, average score) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.12.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 23. P4. Level of trust toward Parliament (5-point scale, where ‘1’ means “Fully distrust”, and ‘5’ means “Fully trust”, average score) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.42.0 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 24. P15, P16. Paradox of Trust Would you say that the most recent election was conducted …, 2011 (%) Completely fairly To some extent fairly Not at all fairly Dont know Armenia 12 36 33 19 Azerbaijan 13 30 16 41 Georgia 24 30 10 36 Did you vote in the last national election?, 2011 (%) Yes No Dont know Armenia 81 19Azerbaijan 62 36 2 Georgia 74 23 2
  • 25. P8. Do you think or not that people like yourself have the right to openly say what they think?, 2011 (%) Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia63 56 45 42 31 32 13 13 5 Yes No Dont know
  • 26. D22. Have you or any member of your household been in a situation during thelast 12 months when you/they had to pay a bribe in order to get a service or to obtain preferential treatment or consideration?, 2011 (%) Yes No 99 89 64 276 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 27. NAGORNO KARABAGH ISSUE ANDPOSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
  • 28. NK2. When do you think the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will be resolved?, 2011(%) Armenia Azerbaijan 38 34 24 24 12 12 12 11 10 7 4 5 3 3It has already Within the next In 2-5 years In 6-10 years In more than 10 Never Don’t knowbeen resolved year years
  • 29. NK4.1. How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within the next 5 years by peaceful negotiation?, 2011 (%) Very likely Rather likely Rather unlikely Very unlikely Dont know Armenia 38 24 9 12 17Azerbaijan 26 26 22 20 7
  • 30. NK4.2. How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within the next 5 years by force?, 2011 (%) Very likely Rather likely Rather unlikely Very unlikely Dont know Armenia 11 10 19 36 23Azerbaijan 19 23 28 19 10
  • 31. Armenia NK5. Various ideas have been proposed for settling the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Whether you would ...?, 2011 (%) Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept Dont know Have Nagorno-Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia. 61 16 15 8 Have Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country. 58 19 14 9 Create a special administrative region that will be jointly governed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. 24 77 17Have Nagorno-Karabakh with a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan. 23 78 17Have Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan without autonomy. 42 75 18
  • 32. Azerbaijan NK5. Various ideas have been proposed for settling the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Whether you would ...?, 2011 (%) Definitely favor Accept under certain circumstances Never accept Dont know Have Nagorno-Karabakh as a formal part of Armenia. 0.5 96 3 Have Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country. 1 8 83 8 Create a special administrative region that will be jointly governed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. 16 85 8Have Nagorno-Karabakh with a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan. 23 29 40 8 Have Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan without autonomy. 91 41 4
  • 33. NK1. In your opinion, should the following countries or organizations be involved in finding a solution for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?, 2011 (%) More involved Less involved Not involved at all Dont know Armenia 73 10 6 11Russia Azerbaijan 51 21 18 10 Armenia 36 22 26 16USA Azerbaijan 36 32 21 11 Armenia 50 18 17 16France Azerbaijan 15 29 41 15 Armenia 8 8 70 14Turkey Azerbaijan 87 5 2 6 Armenia 43 22 16 18EU Azerbaijan 40 28 17 15
  • 34. EXTERNAL WORLD PERCEPTIONS
  • 35. P4_16. Trust toward United Nations (%) 2010-2011 Fully trust Somewhat trust Neither trust nor distrust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust Don’t know 2011 10 26 26 7 10 21Armenia 2010 13 23 28 8 9 19 2011 8 13 24 18 16 20Azerbaijan 2010 5 19 23 16 16 22 2011 12 30 25 6 5 22Georgia 2010 14 30 25 6 4 20
  • 36. P4_15. Trust toward European Union (%) 2010-2011 Fully trust Somewhat trust Neither trust nor distrust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust Don’t know 2011 10 27 26 7 11 20Armenia 2010 12 23 27 9 9 19 2011 8 14 26 18 13 21Azerbaijan 2010 5 17 25 17 15 21 2011 13 32 23 6 5 21Georgia 2010 13 31 25 6 4 21
  • 37. P21. To what extent would you support your country’s membership in NATO? (%) 2010-2011 Fully support Rather support Equally support and don’t support Rather not support Don’t support at all Don’t know 2011 16 21 24 9 12 18Armenia 2010 14 23 26 9 12 16 2011 22 21 25 9 6 16Azerbaijan 2010 20 25 22 8 6 19 2011 38 29 15 3 5 11Georgia 2010 35 35 13 4 4 9
  • 38. Armenia N8. Whether you approve or disapprove of people of your ethnicity doing business with…,2011, (%) Yes No 32Azerbaijanis 64 60 Jews 34 73 Americans 22 69 Greeks 27 86 Russians 11 40 Turks 57 66 Georgians 30Kurds, Yezidi 56 s 40 72 English 24
  • 39. Azerbaijan N8. Whether you approve or disapprove of people of your ethnicity doing business with…,2011, (%) Yes No Armenians 99 39 Jews 55 39 Americans 56 44 Greeks 48 71 Russians 27 87 Turks 12 57 Georgians 41 24Kurds, Yezidis 70 53 English 42
  • 40. Georgia N8. Whether you approve or disapprove of people of your ethnicity doing business with…,2011, (%) Yes No 70 Armenians 24 72 Jews 19 75 Americans 17 73Azerbaijanis 20 75 Greeks 18 76 Russians 18 66 Turks 28Kurds, Yezidi 95 s 30 59 English 32
  • 41. P23. Which country is currently the biggest friend of your country, 2011 (%) Russia 81Armenia France 7 Turkey 90Azerbaijan Dont know 5 USA 44Georgia Dont know 25
  • 42. P24. Which country is currently the biggest enemy of your country, 2011 (%) Azerbaijan 60Armenia Turkey 34 Armenia 94Azerbaijan Russia 3 Russia 51Georgia Dont know 34
  • 43. LEVEL OF HAPPINESS
  • 44. N2. How happy would you say you are? (1 - 10, where ‘1’ means “Extremely unhappy” and ‘10’ means “Extremely happy”, average score) 2010 2011 6.9 6.6 6.66.4 6.1 5.8 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia
  • 45. Armenia N2. How happy would you say you are? by household income last month (1 - 10, where ‘1’ means “Extremely unhappy” and ‘10’ means “Extremely happy”, average score) 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.8More than USD USD 801-1200 USD 401-800 USD 251-400 USD 101-250 USD 51-100 Up to USD 50 0 1200
  • 46. N2, A8. How happy would you say you are?, by marital status, 2011 (1 - 10, where ‘1’ means “Extremely unhappy” and ‘10’ means “Extremely happy”, average score) Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.2Never married Married: official Married: Married: both Cohabiting Divorced Separated Widow/Widower state marriage religious state marriage without civil or only, no religious ceremony and religious religious ceremony only, not ceremony marriage registered with state
  • 47. Armenia N2. How happy would you say you are?, by gender and age, 2011 (1 -10, where ‘1’ means “Extremely unhappy” and ‘10’ means “Extremely happy”, average score) 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.4 5.6 5.518-35 36-55 56+ 18-35 36-55 56+ Male Female
  • 48. Data open access and on-line analysiswww.crrccenters.org/caucasusbarometer/online or http://crrc.ge/oda
  • 49. Thank You! www.crrc.amwww.crrccenters.org