Which party is the most transparent while contesting elections?
Which party is the least transparent while contesting elections?
Will you vote in the upcoming elections even if you feel that the electoral system and process is rigged?
Which political party, in your opinion, is the most corrupt?
Which political party, if it comes into power, can reduce or end corruption?
Will your decision be based on levels of corruption within a political party?
Do you think Pakistan should have a strong strategic alliance with the United States?
Are drone attacks an infringement on Pakistan's sovereignty?
Does Pakistan require foreign aid?
Would you vote for a party that…
Should Pakistan actively promote a government favourable to its own interests in Afghanistan?
Which party will handle Pakistan's foreign affairs in the best possible manner?
The government's engagement with Taliban should focus on…
Which party can best counter religious violence?
Which party can best counter secterain violence?
What are the biggest economic issues facing Pakistan today?
Which sectors should Pakistan increase its expenditure in?
Which sectors should Pakistan reduce its expenditure in?
Which party will be the most effective in addressing Pakistan's economic problems?
Pakistan's interprovincial relations are…
Do you support the creation of new provinces?
Do you think power is distributed equitably between all provinces?
Do you think food is distributed equitably in all provinces?
Which party, were it to win, would be the most effective in addressing the problems of your province?
The most powerful institution in Pakistan is…
What should be the government's policy be on women contesting elections?
What should the government's policy on women wearing the veil/hijab/niqab be whey they step outside their homes?
What should the government's policy be on women working alongside men in workplaces?
Who should be given preference in education?
What should the government's policy be co-education in Pakistan?
Should women have the right to divorce?
What is your opinion on domestic violence?
What is your opinion on honour killings?
Which culture and lifestyle issues will affect your decision to vote for a political party?
Do you think non-Muslims should have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in Pakistan?
Do you think non-Muslims should have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan?
Should there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan?
Do you think Pakistan's blasphemy laws are justly and fairly applied?
PTI poses tough competition in the 18-35 age bracket36-50 years = PPP51-70=N and PPP equal70+=PML-N
Sindhi = PPPSeraiki =PPPPunjabi & Hindko= PML-NPakhtun = ANP LOSES TO PTIPakhtun & Hindko = PTI
Socio-Political Preferences in Pakistan
POLITICAL BAROMETERA Study of Socio-PoliticalPreferences of People ofPakistan
Background• First civilian government completing it’s term• Chief Election Commissioner appointed through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the country’s history• Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by the president
The Political Barometer Survey• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators• Conducted across broad sections of the society• Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform, governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead of the traditional provincial demarcation
Sampling• Demographic sample based on the population census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics• Stratified Sampling ▫ Ethno-linguistic ▫ Gender ▫ Urban/Rural ▫ Age ▫ Income ▫ Educational qualification
Questionnaire, interviews, andchallenges• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to minimize biases• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to respond to a few questions• The data was verified through randomly contacting reluctant respondants• Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN
Issues Electoral Process Civil Military Corruption Relations Inter- Foreign provincial Policy relations Political Internal Economy Security
Electoral Process Most transparent party while contesting elections Others PPP 25% 24% PMLN PTI 24% 27%
Least transparent party while contesting elections Others 24% PPP 41% MQM 19% PMLN 16%
Decision to vote despite doubts about the electoral process Maybe 26% Yes 53% No 21%
Corruption Responses on the most corrupt party Others 18% MQM 16% PPP 56% PMLN 10%
Responses on political party that will end/reduce corruption, if in power Others 18% PPP 23% PTI PMLN 34% 25%
Decision to vote: will it be based on levels of corruption within a political party? Maybe 24% Yes No 60% 16%
Foreign Policy Preferences for Pakistan to have strong strategic alliance with the US Maybe Yes 32% 33% No 35%
Are drone attacks infringement on Pakistans sovereignty? Maybe 19% No 11% Yes 70%
Does Pakistan require foreign aid? Maybe 26% Yes 37% No 37%
Relations with neighbors Preference to vote for a party that... Opposes peaceful ties with India 17% Maintains a neutral stance 38% Pledges peaceful ties with India 28% A partys stance on relations with India will not factor in my decision making 17%
Should Pakistan promote a government favourable to its own interests in Afghanistan? Maybe Yes 32% 33% No 35%
Party that can best handle Pakistans foreign affairs Others 20% PPP 30% PTI 21% PMLN 29%
Internal Security Governments engagement with Taliban should focus on... Other 1% Negotiation Negotiation and military 36% action 39% Military action 24%
Party that can best counter religious violence PPP Others 24% 30% PMLN PTI 26% 20%
Party that can best counter sectarian violence PPP 22% Others 32% PMLN 24% PTI 22%
Political Economy Economic issues facing Pakistan Unemploym Others ent 23% 21% Foreign debt Energy burden shortage 12% 19% Inflation Currency 12% devaluation 13%
Pressing issues based on educationlevelsHigher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education• Extremism • Inflation• Political instability • Gender• Interprovincial discrimination problems • Food shortages
Most effective party to address Pakistans economic problems Others 22% PPP 27% PTI 25% PMLN 26%
Provincial Matters Pakistans interprovincial relations are... No opinion 36% Disharmonio us 42% Harmonious 22%
Support for creation of new provinces Maybe 26% Yes 36% No 38%
Power: equitabledistribution between all provinces? Maybe Yes 19% 12% Water: equitable distribution No between all provinces? 69% Maybe Yes 20% 17% No 63%
Is food distribution across provinces fair? Maybe Yes 24% 21% No 55%
Party that will be most effective in addressing provincial problems Others PPP 25% 26% PTI 23% PMLN 26%
Civil-military relations Most powerful institution in Pakistan 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 1%
Women What should be Government policy on women contesting elections? Remain neutral Ban it 15% 19% Promote it 66%
What should be Government’s Stance onwomens purdah outside their homes? Ban it 11% Remain neutral 36% Promote it 53%
What should be Government policy on women working alongside men in workplaces? Remain Ban them neutral 26% 26% Actively promote them 48%
Preference in education should be for... Girls Neither Boys 6% 1% 5% Both 88%
Governments policy on co-education should be... Remain neutral Ban it 25% 29% Actively promote it 46%
Should women have the right to divorce? Maybe 21% Yes 39% No 40%
Opinions on domestic violence Sometimes No opinion justified, som 5% etimes unjustified 16%Acceptable 2% Unacceptable 77%
Opinions on honour killings No opinion 7% Acceptable Sometimes 11%justified, som etimes unjustified 19% Unacceptable 63%
Lifestyle and cultural issues influencing voter’s preference Its policy on women contesting elections Others 15% 33% Its policy on coeducation 14% Its policy on purdah Its policy on 14% performing arts Its policy on 13% women working alongside men 11%
Minorities Should non-Muslims have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in Pakistan? Maybe 15% No 13% Yes 72%
Should non-Muslims have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan? Maybe 10% No 8% Yes 82%
Should there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan? Maybe 28% Yes 34% No 38%
Opinions on the fairness and justness of blasphemy laws in Pakistan Maybe 23% Yes 38% No 39%
Voting trends Party support within each age bracket* PPP PMLN PTI Others 18% 26% 27% 25% 8% 23% 19% 18% 46% 22% 28% 24% 27% 32% 28% 28% 18-35 36-50 51-70 70+*Does not include respondents who selected no party
Party support across different ethnicities PPP PML-N PTI ANP BNP-Mengal 44% 11% 55% 46% 44% 43% 47% 34%Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch
Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history• Vote bank for PML-N Stagnant• Vote bank for PPP Declined• Vote bank for PTI Stronger urban base
Parties supporters by monthly family income PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQAbove Rs. 100,000 1% 3% 6% 9% 5% 3%Rs. 45,000-100,000 2% 5% 10% 16% 8% 13%Rs. 10,000-45,000 53% 55% 59% 50% 57% 41%Rs. 10,000 or less 44% 37% 26% 25% 30% 44%
• PPP ▫ Roughly one-third of the respondents earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP ▫ Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party ▫ Support from those earning over Rs. 30,000 dropped to 10.8%• PML-N ▫ Support appears similar across all income groups• PTI ▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party
• MQM ▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party ▫ Only 4% of those earning between Rs. 100,000 and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the party ▫ Below 100K• Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as income level rises• PTI eroding PPP votebank
Scenario 1• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and its current allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-Q ▫ Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML- N, JUI, JI, minus PTI• THEN: ▫ PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the vote ▫ Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure 29.5% ▫ Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance may give a tougher time to PPP
Scenario 2• IF: ▫ PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q ▫ MQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not to be part of either• THEN: ▫ PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votes ▫ Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes ▫ Weaker government against a stronger opposition• Option 1: ▫ PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form opposition• Option 2: ▫ PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form opposition
Scenario 3• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and current allies – ANP, MQM, and PML-Q ▫ Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI• THEN: ▫ PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through, capturing 45.0% of the votes relatively stable govt. at the centre ▫ Anti-PPP parties may also join in
Scenario 4• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI ▫ PML-N led strong opposing alliance• THEN: ▫ PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes stable govt. at the centre
Scenario 5• IF: ▫ PPP-led coalition with current allies ▫ PTI and JI partner for an alliance ▫ PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-PPP parties• THEN: ▫ PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votes ▫ PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9% ▫ PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%
What is expected…• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely• Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single political party• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance• An emerging PTI• Likelihood of a strong opposition high• Electorate divided over ‘crucial’ issues