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Post Economic Crisis Outlook of South Asia
 

Post Economic Crisis Outlook of South Asia

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Presentation by Dr. Vaqar Ahmed at 5th South Asia Economic Summit, 12th September 2012

Presentation by Dr. Vaqar Ahmed at 5th South Asia Economic Summit, 12th September 2012

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  • 1994-2000: Pioneering era, u could have as many episodes as needed. Running a soap every day at almost zero marginal cost
  • Constraints to Economic Growth are Market and Governance FailureMarket Failure: Lack of Competition,No Incentives for Innovation & EntrepreneurshipGovernance Challenges: Poor Contract Enforcement,Distortive Taxes and Subsidies, Anti Competitive Practices, Lacking Software of Growth
  • Yes human K and Physical K is important for growth…but so is socialcaptial
  • And literature of Richrd Florida endorses this.

Post Economic Crisis Outlook of South Asia Post Economic Crisis Outlook of South Asia Presentation Transcript

  • Post Economic Crisis Outlook of South AsiaMoving towards Inclusive Growth & Sustainable Development Vaqar Ahmed Sustainable Development Policy Institute 5th South Asia Economic Summit, 12 September 2012 1
  • South Asian Growth 2000-2011 • Growth volatility adding to uncertainty 10 • Boom bust cycles in absence of reform 9 8 7 6% Growth 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 South Asia PakistanSporadic Growth Usually Created by External Resources or Short Term Injections 2
  • South Asian Investment Outlook 2000-2011 40 35 Fixed Investment % of GDP 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 South Asia Pakistan How are Savings Channeled towards Growth? 3
  • South Asian Exports 2000-2011 35 30 25 20 15% Growth 10 5 0 -5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -10 -15 -20 South Asia Pakistan Sustaining share in global markets seems difficult 4
  • What is the Current Growth Strategy?Growth policy by default • Public sector projects Market Failure being multiplied with lesser available resources • Regulated markets and Governance sector picking Challenges • Lack of structural reform 5
  • Plan Periods in Pakistan Plan Period1. Colombo Plan (Six Year Plan) 1951-572. Ist Five year Plan 1955-603. 2nd Five year Plan 1960-654. 3rd Five year Plan 1965-705. 4th Five year Plan 1970-756. 5th Five year Plan 1978-837. 6th Five year Plan 1983-888. 7th Five year Plan 1988-939. 8th Five year Plan 1993-9810. 9th Five year Plan 1998-200311. 10 Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-1112. Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) 2005-1013. Vision 2030 2008 - 6
  • Revisiting Determinants of Economic Growth Labour Capital Technology Economic Growth Productivity Management Institutions Information
  • Four Important DebatesHardware Vs. Software of growthConsumer perspective in tradeDeregulate institutions dealing with connectivityConfigure cities for domestic commerce 8
  • Socially-relevant Growth Process• Bridging gap between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic outcomes• 3 Case Studies – Public expenditure and social capital – Cities being more responsive to poor – Finding innovation processes that reduce inequalities 9
  • Social Capital and Child Immunization• In 2011 Pakistan reported more polio cases than Nigeria, Pakistan and India together• Over 25000 families refused immunization teams only in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province• For 3 years children of this region went un- immunized despite of spending over Rs. 10 billion since 2010• Took 14 months to bridge trust deficit with local Taliban and convince them on immunization program – Only this year Taliban allowed the teams to enter peacefully and conduct vaccinations Social Capital more important than human and physical capital 10
  • Social Accountability and Cities• South Asian Mayor’s Meeting• We conducted social accountability interventions in two urban slum areas with lowest enrollment: – Minority Christian community – Migrant community• Parents-Teachers committees formed over 13 months and parents informed on registering grievances• Parents ensuring not only child attendance but also content of schooling• A case for micro-governance interventions Cities have a greater tendency to be pro-poor 11
  • Social Innovation and Growth• While formal innovation systems still remain clogged by barriers to entry in market• It is the informal innovations that are pro-poor and have greater growth potential – Honey bee network  Anil Gupta• Case Study of Garbage Bank (Gul Bahao Project) – Low cost consumer durables – Housing at affordable prices – Infrastructure at lower unit costs Innovations that respond to needs of the poor 12
  • Thank You vaqar@sdpi.orgwww.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv 13