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Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment

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CKNP Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment

CKNP Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment

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  • The CKNP consists of 4 districts, 350 settlements, and a population of 211475 according to 1998 census estimates. Its distinctive biodiversity, unique local culture and wilderness make CKNP an attractive destination for around 4,000 tourists per year. Population source: Wikipedia, 1998 census
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Advocacy before research: islamabad subsidized some crops and didn’t for others….those that it did suddenly became cash crops…now G-B wants to leave its traditional cropping patterns. So subsidies given in some other part of Pakistan distorted farmers return on traditional crops in G-B. Entirely kills agricultural productivity. Need for climate education in schools curicula
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Aga Khan Cultural Service Pakistan, MGPO: Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization
  • Still measuring caloric intake of GB ppl according to national line…not recognizing additional caloric needs of mountain ppl. Need for Climate Education in Schools
  • Transcript

    • 1. CKNPClimate Change and Ecosystem Assessment Report Dr. Vaqar Ahmed Sustainable Development Policy Institute 1
    • 2. CKNP Region: Population & Livelihoods Populations; Gilgit (0.8 10,000 square Distinctive million), Skardukilometers and biggest biodiversity, unique (214,848), Ghanchi national park of local culture and (88,366), and Hunza Pakistan wilderness (87,000) Unique ecosystem Economic activities including highest relate to glacier peeks such as agriculture, tourism Baltoro, Panmah, Biafo, and mining Hispar glaciers 2
    • 3. Need for this Study• The ecosystem of the CKNP region is highly vulnerable to climate change in particular to rise in temperature which is directly and indirectly affecting the communities, culture, economy, livestock, pattern of agriculture and biodiversity of that area (IPCC 2007, Campbell 2004).• Ecosystem  Human well-being (Reid et al. 2005). 3 Conservation of ecosystem from climate change
    • 4. Key Areas of Study• Highlights the impacts of climate change on the communities of CKNP region.• Identify vulnerable communities and regions that need policy focus for conservation of biodiversity and local ecosystems.• Possible Identification of vulnerabilities and link with economic growth in the region 4
    • 5. MethodologyRegional Growth Collective Review of & Climate Stakeholder Literature Modeling Observations Primary Data Secondary Data Key Informant Collection Collection Interviews 5
    • 6. Data Sources• Primary data – Household survey conducted in Gilgit, Hunza, Skardu, Ghanche in April 2011 (sample size 300 households) – Stakeholder’s interviews: AKCSP, EV-K2-CNR, MGPO, PARC, PMD, WWF and CKNP Directorate• Secondary data by PMD – For Gilgit: temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and relative humidity – For Hunza and Skardu data provided was on wind speed, wind direction, and relative humidity• Secondary data by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics – Production and Consumption data• Government of Gilgit-Baltistan: Institutional Review 6
    • 7. Existing Literature• Khan, B., Ali, F. Understanding Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change On Gilgit-Baltistan. WWF, UNDP, OCHA• Salerno et al., 2009. Integrated case study of a selected valley in the Central Karakoram National Park. The Bagrot Valley. HKKH Partnership Project. EV-K2-CNR. 81-103• Shah, A., et al. 2009. Land Cover Mapping of the Central Karakoram National Park.WWF, Pakistan• Mayer, C., et al. 2006. Glaciological Characteristics of the Ablation Zone of Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan. International Glaciological Society
    • 8. Existing Literature (Contd..)• Mihalcea, C., et al. 2006. Ice Ablation and Meteorological Conditions on the Debris-Covered Area of Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan. International Glaciological Society• CESVI., Daconto, G. 2007. Exploring the Future: Strategic Analysis of Future Scenarios for Central Karakorum National Park. CESVI.• Belò, M., et al. 2008. The Recent Evolution of Liligo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan, and Its Present Quiescent Phase. International Glaciological Society. Three of these studies were on glaciers, two were on climate change, and the rest were generally on CKNP
    • 9. Gaps in Existing Literature• Update and further research, advocacy and outreach required for CKNP region• There is a need of integrated study for the CKNP region that tries to explore issues and remedies through a social, economic and environmental appraisal• Missing link with sectoral economic growth• Link the various facets of climate change impacts with the resource availability and capacity to deal with the challenges.
    • 10. Climatic Trends in SkarduMinimum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009 Maximum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009 20 35 30 15 1979 25 10 20 15 1979 5 2009 10 2009 0 5 Average 1979- Average 1979-09 0 -5 09 April October June May November March July January February August September December -10 Precipitation in 1979 Vs. 2009 Snowfall Record 2004-2011 140 60 120 50 100 40 80 30 60 1979 20 40 2009 10 20 Average 1979-09 0 0 2005 Nov 2004 Dec 2006 Dec 2010 Dec 2006 Feb 2005 Feb 2008 Feb 2011 Feb 2007 Mar 2009 Mar 2004 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan April June October November May July January March February August September December
    • 11. Climatic Trends in GilgitMaximum Temperatures 1979 Vs. 2009 Minimum Temperature 1979 Vs. 2009 20 40 35 30 15 25 20 10 1979 1979 15 10 2009 5 2009 5 Average 1979-09 Average 1979-09 0 0 June April October May March July January February August September November December February April June May January March July August October September November December -5 Precipitation in 1979 Vs. 2009 140 120 100 80 60 1979 40 2009 20 Average 1979-09 0 April June October November May July January March February August September December
    • 12. Economic Growth ProjectionsScenario A • growth in agribusiness • growth in agribusiness andScenario B tourism • growth in agribusiness, tourismScenario C and mining
    • 13. Projected Rise in Average Maximum Temperatures for G-B 2010-30 Projected Growth (Real GDP) Rise in Average Maximum Temperatures 2010-30 scenario for Gilgit Baltistan 25.0 24.9 9 8 24.8 7 Temparature oC 24.7GDP Percent (%) 6 5 24.6 4 24.5 Scenario-A (Agribusiness) Scenario A 3 Scenario-B (Agribusiness + 24.4 2 Scenario B Tourism) 1 Scenario-C (Agribusiness + 24.3 Scenario C Tourism+Mining) 0 24.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
    • 14. Challenges with Household-level Survey• Advocacy before research• The problem was that majority of population in CKNP was not being educated above secondary school, explanation of these concepts was sometimes made difficult• Most vulnerable resources in CKNP: – Glaciers – Forests – Pastures – Biodiversity
    • 15. Social, Environmental and Economic Impacts Because of Climate Change• Climatic Conditions (becoming warmer region, increased in rainfall pattern, snow pattern changed)• Land Use Pattern (increased due to urbanization, agriculture pattern has changed, cash crops)• Flora of CKNP (lose of plant species, lessen fruit production)• Domestic animals (GLOF causing epidemic diseases)• Wildlife (endangered species, human interferences, deforestation)
    • 16. Social, Environmental and Economic Impacts Because of Climate Change• Drinking Water (increase in water availability and rain fed areas facing shortages, occurrence of water born diseases)• Forest Cover (loss in forest cover due to urbanization and used as a source of energy)• Natural disasters (frequency has increased)
    • 17. Institutional Capacity in Context of CKNP• This report assesses the capacity of the organizations that are directly or indirectly, involved in research or implementation projects on the climate change in the CKNP region.• Many organizations supporting common agenda: Planning Commission Mountain and Glacier Pakistan Agriculture Research Protection Organization Council(PARC) (MGPO) Karakoram International Agha Khan Rural Support University (KIU) Programme (AKRSP) Northern Areas World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Forests, Wildlife and Parks Social, Economic and Department (NAFWPD) Environmental Development Global Change Institute Study (SEED) project Centre (GCISC) Ev-K2-CNR
    • 18. Institutional Capacity Assessment ParametersThe parameters used to assess the capacity of the aforesaid organizations: • Institutional Setup • Qualified/Trained Manpower • Database Management • Availability of GIS or Geographic Information • Allied Equipment (Hardware/Software) • Past projects on Climate Change • Ongoing projects on Climate Change • Budget Allocations for Climate Change Projects • Specific Achievements in the related discipline
    • 19. Institutions: Policy Threats to ClimateG-B Government Policies • Investment Opportunities – Hydro-power – Mineral Development • Mega Projects – KKH, Daimer-Bhasha Dam, Bunji Power Project, Satpara Dam • PM’s directives on public works
    • 20. Policies: Production Threats to Climate • G-B Economic Report suggests: Private sector led growth in agribusiness, minerals, tourism; Ensuring adequate maintenance of existing infrastructure assets (especially in irrigation, energy and transport) • Chinese $100b investment in XinJiang over next 5 years
    • 21. Formulating Appropriate Adaptation Strategies – for Implementation• Environmental appraisal of public sector development programs in the region – role of G-B government• Regulate (environmental) private sectors entry – Free trade agreements with China (and India- MFN)• Planning economic growth in compliance with environmental quality and social equity – role of federal government• Capacity and will to undertake reform – role of civil society
    • 22. Way Forward• Focus of socio-economic impact should go beyond poverty (e.g. food security) – Coordination needed between G-B’s agriculture, environment and water department’s initiatives. All still in project-mode.• Less time and intensity of winter  taking stock of changing consumption/demand patterns• Baseline needed on pattern changes (crops, animals migrating etc.)• How Chinese growth will impact glaciers & park region? [beyond climate  brain drain]
    • 23. Thank YouThank You www.sdpi.org vaqar@sdpi.org