Vision And Five Regions

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What Does It Look Like?

Why Is It Important?

Presented by Joel A. Barker, futurist, author, filmmaker

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Vision And Five Regions

  1. 1. The Next 10 Years A Choice of Visions What Does It Look Like? Why Is It Important? Presented by Joel A. Barker, futurist, author, filmmaker
  2. 2. Vision is… <ul><li>Dreams in action! </li></ul>
  3. 3. Vision’s Importance <ul><li>Clarifies purpose </li></ul><ul><li>Gives direction </li></ul><ul><li>Empowers beyond assets </li></ul>
  4. 4. Five Scholars <ul><li>Fred Polak--Dutch </li></ul><ul><li>Benjamin Singer--Canadian </li></ul><ul><li>Viktor Frankl--Austrian </li></ul><ul><li>Martin Seligman--American </li></ul><ul><li>James Collins--Californian </li></ul>
  5. 5. Fred Polak <ul><li>The Image of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>WWII triggered his scholarship </li></ul><ul><li>Why did the Nazis do so well? </li></ul>
  6. 6. Polak <ul><li>Decided it was their image of their future </li></ul><ul><li>Theory: vision precedes great performance </li></ul>
  7. 7. Polak <ul><li>Studied Western civilization to see if it were true </li></ul><ul><li>Found many examples </li></ul><ul><li>Discovered vision is about pulling, not pushing </li></ul>
  8. 8. Polak’s Grid Pessimism Optimism Essence Influence Characteristics
  9. 9. Polak’s Grid Pessimism Most Powerful Optimism Essence Influence Characteristics
  10. 10. Polak’s Grid Least Powerful Pessimism Optimism Essence Influence Characteristics
  11. 11. Polak’s Conclusions <ul><li>Visionary nations outperform their assets </li></ul><ul><li>“Perhaps a civilization’s mightiest lever is its own image of its future.” </li></ul>
  12. 12. Vision for USA <ul><li>Can you name 10 goals that the United States wants to achieve by 2025? </li></ul>
  13. 13. Viktor Frankl <ul><li>Man’s Search for Meaning </li></ul><ul><li>Austrian Jew </li></ul><ul><li>Psychiatrist </li></ul><ul><li>Spent WWII in concentration camps </li></ul>
  14. 14. Frankl <ul><li>Observed it was impossible to predict who would survive by standard measures: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>youth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>strength </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>health </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>brains </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Frankl <ul><li>None of those assets turned out to be useful measures over the long term. </li></ul><ul><li>Most useful measure: There was something important yet undone waiting in their future. </li></ul>
  16. 16. Frankl <ul><li>All of those who made it through had something significant yet to do. </li></ul><ul><li>They outperformed their assets </li></ul>
  17. 17. Benjamin Singer <ul><li>Canadian educational psychologist </li></ul><ul><li>“The Future Focused Role Image.” </li></ul><ul><li>Vision’s influence on children </li></ul>
  18. 18. Singer <ul><li>Looked at school performance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>grades </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>leadership </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>teacher recommendations </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Singer <ul><li>Interviewed two ends of spectrum </li></ul><ul><li>Asked students to describe their future </li></ul><ul><li>Found startling correlation </li></ul>
  20. 20. Singer <ul><li>Top students had strong/long visions </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom students had no vision </li></ul>
  21. 21. Specifics of successful students <ul><li>Long time horizons </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>A belief that their own behavior made a big difference in how their future turned out </li></ul>
  22. 22. Specifics of nonsuccessful <ul><li>Very short time horizons </li></ul><ul><li>No idea of what they were going to be </li></ul><ul><li>Believed their lives were in the hands of fate </li></ul>
  23. 23. Singer <ul><li>Could not find these two extremes by measuring: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IQ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>family structure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>economic structure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>race </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>gender </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. Singer conclusion <ul><li>Children with vision outperformed their assets </li></ul><ul><li>Successful students had one thing in common: a profound belief in their future and their ability in their own efforts to shape it! </li></ul>
  25. 25. James Collins <ul><li>Built to last with Jerry Porras </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Study of corporations with and without vision </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Good to Great </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A study of mediocre corporation that became great corporations </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. The Research <ul><li>Studied Parallel companies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>same industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>same resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>same starting point </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>One was visionary, one was not </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. The difference <ul><li>Extraordinary </li></ul><ul><li>Investing $1.00 in 1926 in 3 categories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>general stock market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>nonvisionary company </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>visionary company </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Results of investment in 1990 <ul><li>General Market--$415 </li></ul><ul><li>Nonvisionary company--$955 </li></ul>
  29. 29. The Payoff <ul><li>Visionary Company--$6356 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>15X the market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6X its competitor </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Definitely outperformed their assets </li></ul>
  30. 30. Collins Conclusion <ul><li>Enormous advantage to have institutional vision! </li></ul><ul><li>Accessible to all </li></ul>
  31. 31. Key Influencers of Vision <ul><li>Family & friends </li></ul><ul><li>Leaders </li></ul><ul><li>the media </li></ul>
  32. 32. Collective Observations <ul><li>Vision works at all levels of human endeavor </li></ul><ul><li>Vision helps people and collectives outperform their assets </li></ul><ul><li>Positive vision ennobles the human spirit </li></ul>
  33. 33. Which is most influential? <ul><li>Family & Friends, Leaders, Media: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in Europe? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in Asia? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in South America? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in North America? </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. Media’s influence <ul><li>What kind of messages do the media usually convey to us? </li></ul>
  35. 35. Negative Examples <ul><li>Religious wars </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of medical care </li></ul><ul><li>Energy costs </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Failing infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Global competition </li></ul><ul><li>Bankruptcy </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of jobs to China </li></ul><ul><li>Global climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Devaluation of the dollar </li></ul>
  36. 36. The Negative Vision Question <ul><li>If the future is only going to get worse, then what is the best day of your life? </li></ul>
  37. 37. Mass Media influence <ul><li>Profoundly negative </li></ul><ul><li>“Front page” negative </li></ul><ul><li>Inaccurate description of the real world: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What’s the likelihood of you being killed by terrorists in the next five years compared to death in an auto accident? </li></ul></ul>
  38. 38. The Impact of Negative Information <ul><li>Destroys the power of positive vision </li></ul><ul><li>Shapes our “vision” filters to only see the bad </li></ul>
  39. 39. Five Regions of the Future A New Way to Look at the Evolution of Tomorrow’s Technology
  40. 41. Introduction <ul><li>We have more solutions than problems </li></ul><ul><li>New way of looking at technology </li></ul><ul><li>TechnEcologies </li></ul><ul><li>Choice between technologies </li></ul>
  41. 42. Geography of Technology <ul><li>Super Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Limits Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Local Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Nature Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Human Tech </li></ul>
  42. 43. Five Regions
  43. 44. Characterizing a Technology <ul><li>Attitude toward material wealth? </li></ul><ul><li>View of science and technology? </li></ul><ul><li>View its relationship with nature? </li></ul><ul><li>View of work and leisure? </li></ul>
  44. 45. Super Tech
  45. 46. Super Tech <ul><li>Superabundance is just around the corner. </li></ul><ul><li>Science and technology, given enough time and money, can solve all problems. </li></ul><ul><li>It is time for human beings to move beyond mother nature with our own devices. </li></ul><ul><li>Given the choice, human beings will always choose leisure over work. </li></ul>
  46. 47. Fusion Power
  47. 48. Fission
  48. 49. Oil and Natural Gas
  49. 50. Methane Gas Hydrate
  50. 51. Orbital solar
  51. 52. Sony Robot
  52. 53. Robotic Arm
  53. 54. Hypersonic Planes
  54. 55. Private Orbiters
  55. 56. Very Fast Boats
  56. 57. Deep Sea Hawk
  57. 58. Eye Implant
  58. 59. Weather Control
  59. 60. Fish Farming
  60. 61. L5 Space Colonies
  61. 62. Terraforming Mars                                                                          
  62. 63. Three Shades of Green A Different Way To Look at Sustainability
  63. 64. Limits Tech
  64. 65. Limits Tech <ul><li>We must learn to live within the limits of our planet </li></ul><ul><li>Science and technology, as they have been used in the past century, are Faustian contracts, bringing short term advantages but long term disaster. </li></ul><ul><li>Mother nature knows best. </li></ul><ul><li>Human beings are going to have to work very hard if they want to survive. </li></ul>
  65. 66. The Good News <ul><li>&quot;EEStor -- A Texas company </li></ul><ul><li>technology is a tenth the weight and volume of lead-acid batteries, and significantly smaller than the most advanced chemical batteries today. </li></ul><ul><li>300 miles before recharge </li></ul>
  66. 67. Negawatts
  67. 68. LEDs
  68. 69. Aerogel
  69. 70. Bendable concrete
  70. 71. PreFab Home
  71. 72. Metal foam stuff
  72. 73. Hybrids
  73. 74. Baby Benz
  74. 75. Air Powered Car
  75. 76. Fuel Cell Motorcycle
  76. 77. 250 mph train
  77. 78. 12,000 mpg
  78. 79. LmT Spin Launcher Spin Me Up, Scotty                                                                           Tony Randazzo for AA Reps
  79. 80. Telecommute
  80. 81. Limits Book
  81. 82. $100 computer
  82. 83. Programmable Clothing
  83. 84. Recycling
  84. 85. Rubber Sidewalks
  85. 86. Plastic bridge
  86. 87. Terra Preta Amazonian “Slash and Char”
  87. 88. Local Tech
  88. 89. Local Tech <ul><li>There is a sufficient amount of resources in the world for everybody. </li></ul><ul><li>Science and technology are OK as long as they are properly scaled. </li></ul><ul><li>Humans are the shepherds of nature. </li></ul><ul><li>Humans needs to work to become fully human. </li></ul>
  89. 90. Wind Power
  90. 91. Sea Snakes
  91. 92. Bobbing Buoy Generators
  92. 93. Solar
  93. 94. Decentralized Power Solar Power Tower
  94. 95. Geothermal
  95. 96. Underground Homes
  96. 97. Straw Bale Homes
  97. 98. Solar Light Bulb
  98. 99. Local Tech Refrigerator
  99. 100. Fog Nets
  100. 101. Bicycles
  101. 102. TWIKE
  102. 103. Segways
  103. 104. Smooth Rollers
  104. 105. Airships
  105. 106.                                                                                                                                                                               Copyright © Worldwide Aeros Corp. All Rights Reserved. 1734 Gage Road, Montebello, CA 90640-6504 Phone 818-344-3999, Fax 323-201-8383
  106. 107. ST Flying Hotel                                                                           Peter Bollinger                                                                           John MacNeill
  107. 108. High Atmosphere Dirigible An artist's concept of a Lockheed Martin                                    
  108. 109. Nature Tech
  109. 110. Nature Tech <ul><li>All human needs can be filled using Nature’s systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Mother Nature has already solved all of our problems. Science’s job is to find her answers and create compatible technologies using those solutions. </li></ul><ul><li>Our relationship with nature is that of a co-equal partner. </li></ul><ul><li>Our work is to learn to live well with Nature. </li></ul>
  110. 111. Ethanol
  111. 112. Hydrogen producing bacteria
  112. 113. Bio Battery
  113. 114. Bacterial Electricity
  114. 115. Exothermic plants
  115. 116. Bioluminescence
  116. 117. Vertigro
  117. 118. Colored Cotton
  118. 119. Spider Silk
  119. 120. Kenaf
  120. 121. Natural Plastics
  121. 122. Nature’s Designs
  122. 123. Medicines
  123. 124. Maggots
  124. 125. Biofilms
  125. 126. Gecko Feet Glue
  126. 127. Butterfly LEDs
  127. 128. Tree Talk
  128. 129. Computing
  129. 130. NT Tree House Spin Me Up, Scotty                                                                           Tony Randazzo for AA Reps                                                                           Graham Murdoch
  130. 131. Call to action
  131. 132. Human Tech
  132. 133. Human Tech <ul><li>The real needs of humans are not material needs. </li></ul><ul><li>Science is only now learning how to measure human technology. </li></ul><ul><li>God or Mother Nature or evolution, depending on your point of view, has endowed us with extraordinary capabilities. </li></ul><ul><li>Our true work is to know ourselves. </li></ul>
  133. 134. Bilateral Symmetry
  134. 135. Pheromones
  135. 136. Chronobiology
  136. 137. Stem Cells
  137. 138. Genome
  138. 139. Healing with your head
  139. 140. Health
  140. 141. Placebos
  141. 142. Teamwork
  142. 143. Intelligence
  143. 144. Manufacturing
  144. 145. Wisdom of Crowds <ul><li>James Surowiecki </li></ul><ul><ul><li>large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. </li></ul></ul>
  145. 146. Blink <ul><li>Malcolm Gladwell </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking that happens in a blink of an eye </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power of thin slicing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowing what to look for </li></ul></ul>
  146. 147. Universal Technologies
  147. 148. Super conducting wire
  148. 149. UT Nanotube Fabric
  149. 150. Aluminum Glass Armor
  150. 151. UT Computer
  151. 152. Cell phones
  152. 153. E Book
  153. 154. 3-D Lithography
  154. 155. TDP/Thermal Conversion
  155. 156. Bio Technology
  156. 157. Dreams, Hope, and Vision by Debbe Kennedy <ul><li>Dreams give us hope. Hope ignites Passion. Passion leads us to enVision success. Visions of success open our minds to recognize possibilities </li></ul>
  157. 158. <ul><li>Far-reaching Possibilities help us enlist Support from others. </li></ul><ul><li>Support from others keeps us focused and committed. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus and commitment foster action. </li></ul>
  158. 159. <ul><li>Action leads to Progress. Progress leads to Achievement. Achievement inspires Dreams. Dreams give us hope. </li></ul>

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