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Rural Territorial Dynamics in Latin America Julio A. Berdegué 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists Bei...
Why? <ul><li>Changes in rural and national societies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Diversification of the rural economy </li></ul>...
Why? <ul><li>Preparatory work for the WDR 2008 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationship between economic growth, poverty reducti...
Why? <ul><li>Mainstream ‘Washington Consensus’ rural development strategy (e.g., WDR 2009) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic ...
Rural Territorial Dynamics program <ul><li>A research-based capacity development and policy incidence program for  rural e...
Rural Territorial Dynamics program
Development outcomes <ul><li>Changes in development outcomes as indicators of development dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>What ...
<ul><li>Small Area Estimates (Elbers, Lanjouw, Lanjouw 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Combines </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population c...
<ul><li>Household survey data    statistical model that captures the association between per capita consumption (or incom...
<ul><li>11 countries  - Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pe...
<ul><li>Change over last two censi </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average per capita income (or consumption) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Development outcomes 100% 10.421 100% 399.509.138 Total 32% 3.359 35% 139.697.708 8 L L L 13% 1.388 21% 85.462.336 7 L L W...
Development outcomes Brazil, 1991-2000
Development outcomes Peru, 1993-2005
Development outcomes Mexico, 1990-2005
Next stages <ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In depth research in 19 territories </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What can we do a...
Next presentations <ul><li>A. Schejtman – conceptual framework and approach to examine these patterns </li></ul><ul><li>J....
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International Conference IAAE Rural Territorial Dynamics in Latin America

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Presentación realizada por Julio Berdegué de Rimisp en la 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists realizada en Beijing, China, entre el 16 y 22 de agosto de 2009.

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Transcript of "International Conference IAAE Rural Territorial Dynamics in Latin America"

  1. 1. Rural Territorial Dynamics in Latin America Julio A. Berdegué 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists Beijing, 16-22 August 2009 [email_address]
  2. 2. Why? <ul><li>Changes in rural and national societies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Diversification of the rural economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Urbanization and new urban-rural relations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decentralization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New social and economic actors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corollary: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rural ≠agricultural </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture-led rural development questioned </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Why? <ul><li>Preparatory work for the WDR 2008 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relationship between economic growth, poverty reduction and greater income equality, varied by large regions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corollary: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Same policy has different impact in different regions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different regions have different capacity to participate in development opportunities </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Why? <ul><li>Mainstream ‘Washington Consensus’ rural development strategy (e.g., WDR 2009) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic development policies for those products, firms and regions with comparative advantages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social policies for the rest </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corollary: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A split between economically-integrated and socially-integrated or left behind regions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is there room for place-based development policies even in regions that lack a natural competitive advantage? </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Rural Territorial Dynamics program <ul><li>A research-based capacity development and policy incidence program for rural economic growth, social inclusion and environmental sustainability in Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>Eleven countries, 5 years </li></ul>
  6. 6. Rural Territorial Dynamics program
  7. 7. Development outcomes <ul><li>Changes in development outcomes as indicators of development dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>What are the changes over time in development outcomes at the local level in the participating countries? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aggregate economic well-being (proxied by average per capita consumption and/or income) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Poverty (proxied by the incidence of poverty) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic inequality (proxied by the gini coefficient of per capita consumption or income) </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Small Area Estimates (Elbers, Lanjouw, Lanjouw 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Combines </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population censi – representativeness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Household surveys – richness of data including income or consumption </li></ul></ul>Development outcomes
  9. 9. <ul><li>Household survey data  statistical model that captures the association between per capita consumption (or income) and a set of individual, household, locality, and region-level correlates. </li></ul><ul><li>Set of correlates must exist not only in the household survey data set, but also in the population census data. </li></ul><ul><li>Parameter estimates from consumption model are taken to the population census data and are used to “forecast” consumption at the level of each household into the population census. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates can be used to calculate aggregated statistics (for example, average consumption, and summary measures of poverty and inequality) at any chosen level of aggregation. </li></ul>Development outcomes Source, Peter Lanjouw
  10. 10. <ul><li>11 countries - Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru </li></ul><ul><li>400 million persons, 73% of Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>10 thousand municipalities </li></ul>Development outcomes
  11. 11. <ul><li>Change over last two censi </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average per capita income (or consumption) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incidence of poverty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gini coefficient of per capita income (or consumption) </li></ul></ul>Development outcomes <ul><li>Typology </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>WWW LWW </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>WWL LWL </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>WLW LLW </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>WLL LLL </li></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Development outcomes 100% 10.421 100% 399.509.138 Total 32% 3.359 35% 139.697.708 8 L L L 13% 1.388 21% 85.462.336 7 L L W 4% 395 2% 9.462.410 6 L W L 10% 1.034 8% 30.934.332 5 L W W 7% 736 8% 32.708.854 4 W L L 1% 120 1% 5.512.634 3 W L W 20% 2.129 15% 60.920.050 2 W W L 12% 1.260 9% 34.810.814 1 W W W % Municipalities % Population Type
  13. 13. Development outcomes Brazil, 1991-2000
  14. 14. Development outcomes Peru, 1993-2005
  15. 15. Development outcomes Mexico, 1990-2005
  16. 16. Next stages <ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In depth research in 19 territories </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What can we do about it? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategies for capacity development at subnational level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy dialogue an incidence at subnational, national and international levels </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Next presentations <ul><li>A. Schejtman – conceptual framework and approach to examine these patterns </li></ul><ul><li>J. Escobal – Is there a spatial effect beyond individual and geographic attributes </li></ul><ul><li>E. Ramírez and F. Modrego – Is institutional change an important component of spatial effect? </li></ul>
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