Time value of money

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Time value of money

  1. 1. CHAPTER 6 Time Value of Money <ul><li>Future value </li></ul><ul><li>Present value </li></ul><ul><li>Annuities </li></ul><ul><li>Rates of return </li></ul><ul><li>Amortization </li></ul>
  2. 2. What is Time Value of Money? <ul><li>$ (today) > $ (future) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Time lines <ul><li>Show the timing of cash flows. </li></ul><ul><li>Time 0 is today; Time 1 is the end of the first period (year, month, etc.) or the beginning of the second period. </li></ul>CF 0 CF 1 CF 3 CF 2 0 1 2 3 i%
  4. 4. Drawing time lines: $100 lump sum due in 2 years; 3-year $100 ordinary annuity 100 100 100 0 1 2 3 i% 3 year $100 ordinary annuity 100 0 1 2 i% $100 lump sum due in 2 years
  5. 5. Drawing time lines: Uneven cash flow stream; CF 0 = -$50, CF 1 = $100, CF 2 = $75, and CF 3 = $50 100 50 75 0 1 2 3 i% -50 Uneven cash flow stream
  6. 6. What is the future value (FV) of an initial $100 after 3 years, if I/YR = 10%? <ul><li>Finding the FV of a cash flow or series of cash flows when compound interest is applied is called compounding. </li></ul><ul><li>FV can be solved by using the arithmetic, financial calculator, and spreadsheet methods. </li></ul>FV = ? 0 1 2 3 10% 100
  7. 7. Solving for FV: The arithmetic method <ul><li>After 1 year: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 1 = PV ( 1 + i ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After 2 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 2 = PV ( 1 + i ) 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After 3 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 3 = PV ( 1 + i ) 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After n years (general case): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV n = PV ( 1 + i ) n </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Solving for FV: The arithmetic method <ul><li>After 1 year: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 1 = PV ( 1 + i ) = $100 (1.10) = $110.00 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After 2 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 2 = PV ( 1 + i ) 2 = $100 (1.10) 2 =$121.00 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After 3 years: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV 3 = PV ( 1 + i ) 3 = $100 (1.10) 3 =$133.10 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After n years (general case): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FV n = PV ( 1 + i ) n </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Solving for FV: The calculator method <ul><li>Solves the general FV equation. </li></ul><ul><li>Requires 4 inputs into calculator, and will solve for the fifth. (Set to P/YR = 1 and END mode.) </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 0 133.10 -100
  10. 10. What is the present value (PV) of $100 due in 3 years, if I/YR = 10%? <ul><li>Finding the PV of a cash flow or series of cash flows when compound interest is applied is called discounting (the reverse of compounding). </li></ul><ul><li>The PV shows the value of cash flows in terms of today’s purchasing power. </li></ul>PV = ? 100 0 1 2 3 10%
  11. 11. Solving for PV: The arithmetic method <ul><li>Solve the general FV equation for PV: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PV = FV n / ( 1 + i ) n </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PV = FV 3 / ( 1 + i ) 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> = $100 / ( 1.10 ) 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> = $75.13 </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Solving for PV: The calculator method <ul><li>Solves the general FV equation for PV. </li></ul><ul><li>Exactly like solving for FV, except we have different input information and are solving for a different variable. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 0 100 -75.13
  13. 13. Solving for N: If sales grow at 20% per year, how long before sales double? <ul><li>Solves the general FV equation for N. </li></ul><ul><li>Same as previous problems, but now solving for N. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3.8 20 0 2 -1
  14. 14. What is the difference between an ordinary annuity and an annuity due? Ordinary Annuity PMT PMT PMT 0 1 2 3 i% PMT PMT 0 1 2 3 i% PMT Annuity Due
  15. 15. Solving for FV: 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 at 10% <ul><li>$100 payments occur at the end of each period, but there is no PV. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 -100 331 0
  16. 16. Solving for PV: 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 at 10% <ul><li>$100 payments still occur at the end of each period, but now there is no FV. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 100 0 -248.69
  17. 17. Solving for FV: 3-year annuity due of $100 at 10% <ul><li>Now, $100 payments occur at the beginning of each period. </li></ul><ul><li>Set calculator to “BEGIN” mode. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 -100 364.10 0
  18. 18. Solving for PV: 3 year annuity due of $100 at 10% <ul><li>Again, $100 payments occur at the beginning of each period. </li></ul><ul><li>Set calculator to “BEGIN” mode. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 100 0 -273.55
  19. 19. What is the PV of this uneven cash flow stream? 0 100 1 300 2 300 3 10% -50 4 90.91 247.93 225.39 -34.15 530.08 = PV
  20. 20. Solving for PV: Uneven cash flow stream <ul><li>Input cash flows in the calculator’s “CFLO” register: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ CFL=D.Editor x” press “exe” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CF 0 = 0 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CF 1 = 100 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CF 2 = 300 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CF 3 = 300 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CF 4 = -50 press “cash” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enter I/YR = 10, press NPV button to get NPV = $530.09. (Here NPV = PV.) </li></ul>
  21. 21. Solving for I: What interest rate would cause $100 to grow to $125.97 in 3 years? <ul><li>Solves the general FV equation for I. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 8 0 125.97 -100
  22. 22. For FV ? <ul><li>Calculate NPV using CASH mode </li></ul><ul><li>Now using CMPD mode to calculate FV </li></ul>
  23. 23. Compounding <ul><li>It makes our money grow and makes it grow quickly with each return that’s added in a subsequent period of time. </li></ul>
  24. 24. The Power of Compound Interest <ul><li>A 20-year-old student wants to start saving for retirement. She plans to save $3 a day. Every day, she puts $3 in her drawer. At the end of the year, she invests the accumulated savings ($1,095) in an online stock account. The stock account has an expected annual return of 12%. </li></ul><ul><li>How much money will she have when she is 65 years old? </li></ul>
  25. 25. Solving for FV: Savings problem <ul><li>If she begins saving today, and sticks to her plan, she will have $1,487,261.89 when she is 65. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 45 12 -1095 1,487,262 0
  26. 26. Solving for FV: Savings problem, if you wait until you are 40 years old to start <ul><li>If a 40-year-old investor begins saving today, and sticks to the plan, he or she will have $146,000.59 at age 65. This is $1.3 million less than if starting at age 20. </li></ul><ul><li>Lesson: It pays to start saving early. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 25 12 -1095 146,001 0
  27. 27. Solving for PMT: How much must the 40-year old deposit annually to catch the 20-year old? <ul><li>To find the required annual contribution, enter the number of years until retirement and the final goal of $1,487,261.89, and solve for PMT. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 25 12 -11,154.42 1,487,262 0
  28. 28. Will the FV of a lump sum be larger or smaller if compounded more often, holding the stated I% constant? <ul><li>LARGER, as the more frequently compounding occurs, interest is earned on interest more often. </li></ul>Annually: FV 3 = $100(1.10) 3 = $133.10 Semiannually: FV 6 = $100(1.05) 6 = $134.01 0 1 2 3 10% 100 133.10 0 1 2 3 5% 4 5 6 134.01 1 2 3 0 100
  29. 29. Classifications of interest rates <ul><li>Nominal rate (i NOM ) – also called the quoted or state rate. An annual rate that ignores compounding effects. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>i NOM is stated in contracts. Periods must also be given, e.g. 8% Quarterly or 8% Daily interest. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Periodic rate (i PER ) – amount of interest charged each period, e.g. monthly or quarterly. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>i PER = i NOM / m, where m is the number of compounding periods per year. m = 4 for quarterly and m = 12 for monthly compounding. </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Classifications of interest rates <ul><li>Effective (or equivalent) annual rate (EAR = EFF%) – the annual rate of interest actually being earned, taking into account compounding. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EFF% for 10% semiannual investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EFF% = ( 1 + i NOM / m ) m - 1 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>= ( 1 + 0.10 / 2 ) 2 – 1 = 10.25% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An investor would be indifferent between an investment offering a 10.25% annual return and one offering a 10% annual return, compounded semiannually. </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Why is it important to consider effective rates of return? <ul><li>An investment with monthly payments is different from one with quarterly payments. Must put each return on an EFF% basis to compare rates of return. Must use EFF% for comparisons. See following values of EFF% rates at various compounding levels. </li></ul><ul><li>EAR ANNUAL 10.00% </li></ul><ul><li>EAR QUARTERLY 10.38% </li></ul><ul><li>EAR MONTHLY 10.47% </li></ul><ul><li>EAR DAILY (365) 10.52% </li></ul>
  32. 32. Can the effective rate ever be equal to the nominal rate? <ul><li>Yes, but only if annual compounding is used, i.e., if m = 1. </li></ul><ul><li>If m > 1, EFF% will always be greater than the nominal rate. </li></ul>
  33. 33. When is each rate used? <ul><li>i NOM written into contracts, quoted by banks and brokers. Not used in calculations or shown on time lines. </li></ul><ul><li>i PER Used in calculations and shown on time lines. If m = 1, i NOM = i PER = EAR. </li></ul><ul><li>EAR Used to compare returns on investments with different payments per year. Used in calculations when annuity payments don’t match compounding periods. </li></ul>
  34. 34. What is the FV of $100 after 3 years under 10% semiannual compounding? Quarterly compounding?
  35. 35. What’s the FV of a 3-year $100 annuity, if the quoted interest rate is 10%, compounded semiannually? <ul><li>Payments occur annually, but compounding occurs every 6 months. </li></ul><ul><li>Cannot use normal annuity valuation techniques. </li></ul>0 1 100 2 3 5% 4 5 100 100 6 1 2 3
  36. 36. Method 1: Compound each cash flow <ul><li>FV 3 = $100(1.05) 4 + $100(1.05) 2 + $100 </li></ul><ul><li>FV 3 = $331.80 </li></ul>110.25 121.55 331.80 0 1 100 2 3 5% 4 5 100 6 1 2 3 100
  37. 37. Method 2: Financial calculator <ul><li>Find the EAR and treat as an annuity. </li></ul><ul><li>EAR = ( 1 + 0.10 / 2 ) 2 – 1 = 10.25%. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10.25 -100 331.80 0
  38. 38. Find the PV of this 3-year ordinary annuity. <ul><li>Could solve by discounting each cash flow, or … </li></ul><ul><li>Use the EAR and treat as an annuity to solve for PV. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10.25 100 0 -247.59
  39. 39. Loan amortization <ul><li>Amortization tables are widely used for home mortgages, auto loans, business loans, retirement plans, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Financial calculators are great for setting up amortization tables. </li></ul><ul><li>EXAMPLE: Construct an amortization schedule for a $1,000, 10% annual rate loan with 3 equal payments. </li></ul>
  40. 40. Step 1: Find the required annual payment <ul><li>All input information is already given, just remember that the FV = 0 because the reason for amortizing the loan and making payments is to retire the loan. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 3 10 402.11 0 -1000
  41. 41. Step 2: Find the interest paid in Year 1 <ul><li>The borrower will owe interest upon the initial balance at the end of the first year. Interest to be paid in the first year can be found by multiplying the beginning balance by the interest rate. </li></ul><ul><li>INT t = Beg bal t (i) </li></ul><ul><li>INT 1 = $1,000 (0.10) = $100 </li></ul>
  42. 42. Step 3: Find the principal repaid in Year 1 <ul><li>If a payment of $402.11 was made at the end of the first year and $100 was paid toward interest, the remaining value must represent the amount of principal repaid. </li></ul><ul><li>PRIN = PMT – INT </li></ul><ul><li>= $402.11 - $100 = $302.11 </li></ul>
  43. 43. Step 4: Find the ending balance after Year 1 <ul><li>To find the balance at the end of the period, subtract the amount paid toward principal from the beginning balance. </li></ul><ul><li>END BAL = BEG BAL – PRIN </li></ul><ul><li>= $1,000 - $302.11 </li></ul><ul><li>= $697.89 </li></ul>
  44. 44. Constructing an amortization table: Repeat steps 1 – 4 until end of loan <ul><li>Interest paid declines with each payment as the balance declines. </li></ul>Year BEG BAL PMT INT PRIN END BAL 1 $1,000 $402 $100 $302 $698 2 698 402 70 332 366 3 366 402 37 366 0 TOTAL 1,206.34 206.34 1,000 -
  45. 45. Illustrating an amortized payment: Where does the money go? <ul><li>Constant payments. </li></ul><ul><li>Declining interest payments. </li></ul><ul><li>Declining balance. </li></ul>$ 0 1 2 3 402.11 Interest 302.11 Principal Payments
  46. 46. Partial amortization <ul><li>Bank agrees to lend a home buyer $220,000 to buy a $250,000 home, requiring a $30,000 down payment. </li></ul><ul><li>The home buyer only has $7,500 in cash, so the seller agrees to take a note with the following terms: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Face value = $22,500 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7.5% nominal interest rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Payments made at the end of the year, based upon a 20-year amortization schedule. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Loan matures at the end of the 10 th year. </li></ul></ul>
  47. 47. Calculating annual loan payments <ul><li>Based upon the loan information, the home buyer must make annual payments of $2,207.07 on the loan. </li></ul>INPUTS OUTPUT N I/YR PMT PV FV 20 7.5 2207.07 0 -22500
  48. 48. Determining the balloon payment <ul><li>Using an amortization table, it can be found that at the end of the 10 th year, the remaining balance on the loan will be $15,149.54. </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Balloon payment = $15,149.54 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final payment = $17,356.61 </li></ul></ul>

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