2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt

urban futures
A presentation by
Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies
For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011

space
time
language
http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com
@urbanverse
Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA

3
housing & schools
public projects
master planning

cities
buildings
movables
wearables

cities
buildings
movables
wearables
language

Urban Futures Perspective
Thinking About the Future?
Big Urban Futures
Architecture, Language + You

I. How do you ….
Think about the future?

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)

4 Types of Change

S-Curve
The Real Problem of Change
S-Curve
Peter Bishop, 2003

Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress
Future Society,
altruistic
Industrial Society
Militant Society
Barbarism
Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997

IDEA
Late Culture
Mass civilization
Pre-culture
Birth
Death
Time
Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline
IDEA
Late culture
Mass culture
Pre-Culture
Death
Birth
TIME

The “Upside of Down” Prophecy
Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)
15

RianeEisler – Domination/Partnership

Every day futures…
How to apply futures thinking

Applied Futures Work
Forecasting
Describing the future
With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios
Planning
Visions = Preferred Futures
Influencing, strategies

3 Types of Futures Thinking
Futures Forces Thinking Techniques
ProbableConstants Definite Historical Trends Extrapolation
PlausibleDiscontinuities Imaginative Scenarios
Surprises
Preferable Choices Visionary Visioning
Images Planning
From Peter Bishop, 2003

Futures Methods
Scanning Research, STEEP
Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios
Visioning Preferred Vision, Goals
Planning Mission, Strategy
Acting Initiatives, Results

Economic
Environmental
Technological
Immediate Environment
Social
Political
STEEPEnvironmental Scan
You

Causal Layered Analysis
Time Scale of Change
Problem
Continuous
Litany, Descriptions
Causes
Years
Systems Analysis
Worldview
Decades
Discourse Analysis
Metaphors, Myths, Images
Generations
Inayatullah, 2004

II. Big Urban Futures
What do you think might happen?

Cities and people
3 Billion
More People

Population Forecasts for Selected Countries
2010 - 2100
Nigeria
India
U.S.
You
China

US Population to 2050
550m
410m
You
320m

Population Over Age 60
2005 - 2045
You @60
You

Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015
You

Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030
You

Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030
You

Planet resources
Limits to growth

World Oil Production
2002- 2012
You

Areas with High Water Stress
You

Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil

Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change

What happens? Prices are going up…

What kind of cities??
Choices or
business as usual?

How much land do we need
to live like…..
Paris
S.F.
Paris
N.Y.
London
Singapore
Houston

US home size doubled in 50 years
2000: 2,200sf
1970: 1,500sf
1950: 1,000sf

III. Architecture, Language + You
What kinds of cities
will you make?

Ways to think about urban futures …
Language
Social
Co-creating
Steady state
diplomacy

1. Architecture and language
The city as language

44
Mythic Cities
Utopia
High Tech
Fortress
Gaia

45
metaphoric cities
garden
family
bird
machine

Omega Center for Sustainable Living
Rhinebeck NY
BNIM Architects
Living Cities

Beauty with meaning
Seed Cathedral
Shanghai World Expo
UK Pavilion
Thomas Heatherwick, architect

People first
Oakland CA Existing Street

From Dead Zones
To Lovable
Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes

2. The Social City
IRL, virtual, and you

A
Entry Points
The Conversation Prism
Brian Solis + JESS

Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010
From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade

Social networks; peer to peer
Digital Added to Real World
New Fantasy Worlds
Representations of reality; maps
Second Life
Metaverse Roadmap modified

Layar –
on android cell phone

New York Phantom City Tour
Phantomcity.org

Heads Up display wearable lenses
Vernor Vinge
Rainbows End

Heads Up Display

Times Square NYC
Networked Omniscient Exhibit
You’ll know the social city far differently.

3. Co-Creating the City
Hacking the City

Guerrilla art
underground
The Underbelly Project
Abandoned Subway
New York City

Guerilla art
hillside
Women, Morro de Providencia
Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist

Guerilla gardening

D
DIY Cities
Germany electrical box bench

Making cities,
not just looking
Sydney Opera House
JornUtzon Architect

4. Steady State Cities
How do we measure progress?

Data-driven choices
Baltimore, CitiStats

Most Livable
Vienna, Austria - Mercer

Greenest Cities
Portland Oregon

Well-being

Walkability
Mapping Walk Scores . . . .
Seattle

Affecting Where We Live
Zillow

5. Urban Diplomacy
Coming together

Resolving wicked problems
Los Angeles …..
17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.

Who Owns the Water?

Who Owns the Skyline?

Who Owns the Sidewalk?

Who Decides Transportation Options?
Copenhagen Bike Highway
Sharing the city, not just consuming.
How do we live together, diversity in harmony?

Urban Futures
What futures will you make?
What stories will your city tell future gens?

Thank you!
DrCindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse FrewenArchitects and University of Houston Futures Studies
http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com

http://urbanverse.posterous.com	5727
http://futecture.wordpress.com	629
http://urbanverse.net	130
http://blogs.homesandvillages.com	55
http://paper.li	46
http://spanishinglesenglishspaniol.blogspot.com	28
http://urbanverse.tumblr.com	12
http://posterous.com	10
http://tweetedtimes.com	9
http://media.homesandbuildings.com	6
http://www.yatedo.com	5
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2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt

by Cindy Frewen

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