urban futures<br />A presentation by <br />Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of...
space<br />time<br />language<br />http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com<br />@urbanverse<br />Dr C...
3<br />housing & schools<br />public projects<br />master planning<br />
cities<br />buildings<br />movables<br />wearables<br />
cities<br />buildings<br />movables<br />wearables<br />language<br />
Urban Futures Perspective<br />Thinking About the Future?<br />Big Urban Futures <br />Architecture, Language + You<br />
I. How do you …. <br />Think about the future?<br />
The best way to predict the future is to invent it. <br />Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)<br />
4 Types of Change<br />
S-Curve<br />The Real Problem of Change<br />S-Curve<br />Peter Bishop, 2003<br />
Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress<br />Future Society,<br />altruistic<br />Industrial Society<br />Militant Society...
IDEA<br />Late Culture<br />Mass civilization<br />Pre-culture<br />Birth<br />Death<br />Time<br />Oswald Spengler – Grow...
The “Upside of Down” Prophecy<br />Source:  O. Markley,  “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surpr...
RianeEisler – Domination/Partnership<br />Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997<br />
Every day futures… <br />How to apply futures thinking<br />
Applied Futures Work<br />Forecasting<br />Describing the future<br />With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios<br />Plannin...
3 Types of Futures Thinking<br />Futures	Forces	Thinking	Techniques<br />ProbableConstants	Definite	Historical 	Trends		Ex...
Futures Methods<br />Scanning	Research, STEEP  	<br />Forecasting	Systems, Trends, Scenarios <br />Visioning	Preferred Vis...
Economic<br />Environmental<br />Technological<br />Immediate Environment<br />Social<br />Political<br />STEEPEnvironment...
Causal Layered Analysis<br />Time Scale of Change<br />Problem<br />Continuous<br />Litany, Descriptions <br />Causes<br /...
II. Big Urban Futures<br />What do you think might happen?<br />
Cities and people <br />3 Billion <br />More People<br />
Population Forecasts for Selected Countries <br />2010 - 2100<br />Nigeria<br />India<br />U.S.<br />You<br />China<br />
US Population to 2050<br />550m<br />410m<br />You<br />320m<br />
Population Over Age 60  <br />2005 - 2045<br /> You @60<br />You<br />
Megacities  1959 – 2000 - 2015<br />You<br />
Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030<br />You<br />
Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030<br />You<br />
Planet resources<br />Limits to growth<br />
World Oil Production <br />2002- 2012<br />You<br />
Areas with High Water Stress <br />You<br />
Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil<br />
Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change <br />
What happens? Prices are going up…<br />
What kind of cities??<br />Choices or <br />business as usual?<br />
How much land do we need <br />to live like….. <br />Paris<br />S.F.<br />Paris<br />N.Y.<br /> London<br />Singapore<br /...
US home size doubled in 50 years<br />2000: 2,200sf<br />1970: 1,500sf<br />1950: 1,000sf <br />
III. Architecture, Language + You<br />What kinds of cities <br />will you make?<br />
Ways to think about urban futures … <br />Language<br />Social<br />Co-creating<br />Steady state <br />diplomacy<br />
1. Architecture and language<br />The city as language<br />
44<br />Mythic Cities<br />Utopia<br />High Tech<br />Fortress<br />Gaia<br />
45<br />metaphoric cities<br />garden<br />family<br />bird<br />machine<br />
Omega Center  for Sustainable Living<br />Rhinebeck NY<br />BNIM Architects<br />Living Cities<br />
Beauty with meaning <br />Seed Cathedral<br />Shanghai World Expo<br />UK Pavilion<br />Thomas Heatherwick, architect<br />
People first<br />Oakland CA Existing Street<br />
From Dead Zones <br />To Lovable<br />Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes<br />
2. The Social City<br />IRL, virtual, and you<br />
A<br />Entry Points<br />The Conversation Prism <br />Brian Solis + JESS<br />
Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010<br />From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade<br />
Social networks; peer to peer<br />Digital Added to Real World<br />New Fantasy Worlds<br />Representations of reality; ma...
Layar – <br />on android cell phone<br />
New York Phantom City Tour<br />Phantomcity.org<br />
Heads Up display  wearable lenses<br />Vernor Vinge <br />Rainbows End<br />
Heads Up Display<br />
Times Square NYC <br />Networked Omniscient  Exhibit<br />You’ll know the social city far differently.<br />
3. Co-Creating the City<br />Hacking the City<br />
 Guerrilla art<br />underground<br />The Underbelly Project<br />Abandoned Subway<br />New York City<br />
Guerilla art<br />hillside<br />Women, Morro de Providencia<br />Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist <br />
Guerilla gardening<br />
D<br />DIY Cities<br />Germany electrical box bench <br />
Making cities, <br />not just looking<br />Sydney Opera House<br />JornUtzon Architect<br />
4. Steady State Cities<br />How do we measure progress?<br />
Data-driven choices<br />Baltimore, CitiStats<br />
Most Livable <br />Vienna, Austria - Mercer<br />
Greenest Cities<br />Portland Oregon<br />
Well-being <br />
Walkability <br />Mapping Walk Scores . . . . <br />Seattle<br />
Affecting Where We Live<br />Zillow <br />
5. Urban Diplomacy<br />Coming together<br />
Resolving wicked problems<br />Los Angeles …..<br />17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share ...
Who Owns the Water? <br />
Who Owns the Skyline? <br />
Who Owns the Sidewalk?<br />
Who Decides Transportation Options?<br />Copenhagen Bike Highway <br />Sharing the city, not just consuming.<br />How do w...
Urban Futures<br />What futures will you make?<br />What stories will your city tell future gens?<br />
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2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt

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Urban Futures for Architects - presented to Introduction to Architecture class at University of Kansas School of Architecture 22 Sep 2011. Topics covered:
1 How Do You Think About the Future? an overview of futures thinking, the change process
2 Big Urban Futures. demography, limited resources affecting 21st c cities
3 Architecture, Language and You. Places you can see the future today

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  • Petals: Site, Water, Energy, Health, Materials, Equity, and Beauty w/ 20 imperativesBiophilia, Red Zone materials, The Center for Sustainable Living is a wastewater filtration facility that is designed to use the treated water for garden irrigation and in a greywater recovery system, Omega will use the system and building as a teaching tool in their educational program designed around the ecological impact of their campus.
  • 2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt

    1. 1. urban futures<br />A presentation by <br />Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies <br />For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011 <br />
    2. 2. space<br />time<br />language<br />http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com<br />@urbanverse<br />Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA<br />
    3. 3. 3<br />housing & schools<br />public projects<br />master planning<br />
    4. 4.
    5. 5. cities<br />buildings<br />movables<br />wearables<br />
    6. 6. cities<br />buildings<br />movables<br />wearables<br />language<br />
    7. 7. Urban Futures Perspective<br />Thinking About the Future?<br />Big Urban Futures <br />Architecture, Language + You<br />
    8. 8. I. How do you …. <br />Think about the future?<br />
    9. 9. The best way to predict the future is to invent it. <br />Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)<br />
    10. 10. 4 Types of Change<br />
    11. 11. S-Curve<br />The Real Problem of Change<br />S-Curve<br />Peter Bishop, 2003<br />
    12. 12.
    13. 13. Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress<br />Future Society,<br />altruistic<br />Industrial Society<br />Militant Society<br />Barbarism<br />Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997<br />
    14. 14. IDEA<br />Late Culture<br />Mass civilization<br />Pre-culture<br />Birth<br />Death<br />Time<br />Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline<br />IDEA<br />Late culture<br />Mass culture<br />Pre-Culture<br />Death<br />Birth<br />TIME<br />Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997<br />
    15. 15. The “Upside of Down” Prophecy<br />Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)<br />15<br />
    16. 16. RianeEisler – Domination/Partnership<br />Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997<br />
    17. 17. Every day futures… <br />How to apply futures thinking<br />
    18. 18. Applied Futures Work<br />Forecasting<br />Describing the future<br />With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios<br />Planning<br />Visions = Preferred Futures<br />Influencing, strategies <br />
    19. 19. 3 Types of Futures Thinking<br />Futures Forces Thinking Techniques<br />ProbableConstants Definite Historical Trends Extrapolation<br />PlausibleDiscontinuities Imaginative Scenarios<br /> Surprises <br />Preferable Choices Visionary Visioning<br /> Images Planning<br />From Peter Bishop, 2003<br />
    20. 20. Futures Methods<br />Scanning Research, STEEP <br />Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios <br />Visioning Preferred Vision, Goals<br />Planning Mission, Strategy<br />Acting Initiatives, Results<br />
    21. 21. Economic<br />Environmental<br />Technological<br />Immediate Environment<br />Social<br />Political<br />STEEPEnvironmental Scan<br />You<br />
    22. 22. Causal Layered Analysis<br />Time Scale of Change<br />Problem<br />Continuous<br />Litany, Descriptions <br />Causes<br />Years<br />Systems Analysis<br />Worldview<br />Decades<br />Discourse Analysis <br />Metaphors, Myths, Images<br />Generations<br />Inayatullah, 2004<br />
    23. 23. II. Big Urban Futures<br />What do you think might happen?<br />
    24. 24. Cities and people <br />3 Billion <br />More People<br />
    25. 25. Population Forecasts for Selected Countries <br />2010 - 2100<br />Nigeria<br />India<br />U.S.<br />You<br />China<br />
    26. 26. US Population to 2050<br />550m<br />410m<br />You<br />320m<br />
    27. 27. Population Over Age 60 <br />2005 - 2045<br /> You @60<br />You<br />
    28. 28. Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015<br />You<br />
    29. 29. Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030<br />You<br />
    30. 30. Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030<br />You<br />
    31. 31. Planet resources<br />Limits to growth<br />
    32. 32. World Oil Production <br />2002- 2012<br />You<br />
    33. 33. Areas with High Water Stress <br />You<br />
    34. 34. Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil<br />
    35. 35. Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change <br />
    36. 36. What happens? Prices are going up…<br />
    37. 37. What kind of cities??<br />Choices or <br />business as usual?<br />
    38. 38. How much land do we need <br />to live like….. <br />Paris<br />S.F.<br />Paris<br />N.Y.<br /> London<br />Singapore<br />Houston <br />
    39. 39. US home size doubled in 50 years<br />2000: 2,200sf<br />1970: 1,500sf<br />1950: 1,000sf <br />
    40. 40.
    41. 41. III. Architecture, Language + You<br />What kinds of cities <br />will you make?<br />
    42. 42. Ways to think about urban futures … <br />Language<br />Social<br />Co-creating<br />Steady state <br />diplomacy<br />
    43. 43. 1. Architecture and language<br />The city as language<br />
    44. 44. 44<br />Mythic Cities<br />Utopia<br />High Tech<br />Fortress<br />Gaia<br />
    45. 45. 45<br />metaphoric cities<br />garden<br />family<br />bird<br />machine<br />
    46. 46. Omega Center for Sustainable Living<br />Rhinebeck NY<br />BNIM Architects<br />Living Cities<br />
    47. 47. Beauty with meaning <br />Seed Cathedral<br />Shanghai World Expo<br />UK Pavilion<br />Thomas Heatherwick, architect<br />
    48. 48. People first<br />Oakland CA Existing Street<br />
    49. 49. From Dead Zones <br />To Lovable<br />Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes<br />
    50. 50. 2. The Social City<br />IRL, virtual, and you<br />
    51. 51. A<br />Entry Points<br />The Conversation Prism <br />Brian Solis + JESS<br />
    52. 52. Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010<br />From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade<br />
    53. 53. Social networks; peer to peer<br />Digital Added to Real World<br />New Fantasy Worlds<br />Representations of reality; maps<br />Second Life <br />Metaverse Roadmap modified<br />
    54. 54. Layar – <br />on android cell phone<br />
    55. 55. New York Phantom City Tour<br />Phantomcity.org<br />
    56. 56. Heads Up display wearable lenses<br />Vernor Vinge <br />Rainbows End<br />
    57. 57. Heads Up Display<br />
    58. 58. Times Square NYC <br />Networked Omniscient Exhibit<br />You’ll know the social city far differently.<br />
    59. 59. 3. Co-Creating the City<br />Hacking the City<br />
    60. 60. Guerrilla art<br />underground<br />The Underbelly Project<br />Abandoned Subway<br />New York City<br />
    61. 61. Guerilla art<br />hillside<br />Women, Morro de Providencia<br />Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist <br />
    62. 62. Guerilla gardening<br />
    63. 63. D<br />DIY Cities<br />Germany electrical box bench <br />
    64. 64. Making cities, <br />not just looking<br />Sydney Opera House<br />JornUtzon Architect<br />
    65. 65. 4. Steady State Cities<br />How do we measure progress?<br />
    66. 66. Data-driven choices<br />Baltimore, CitiStats<br />
    67. 67. Most Livable <br />Vienna, Austria - Mercer<br />
    68. 68. Greenest Cities<br />Portland Oregon<br />
    69. 69. Well-being <br />
    70. 70. Walkability <br />Mapping Walk Scores . . . . <br />Seattle<br />
    71. 71. Affecting Where We Live<br />Zillow <br />
    72. 72. 5. Urban Diplomacy<br />Coming together<br />
    73. 73. Resolving wicked problems<br />Los Angeles …..<br />17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity. <br />
    74. 74. Who Owns the Water? <br />
    75. 75. Who Owns the Skyline? <br />
    76. 76. Who Owns the Sidewalk?<br />
    77. 77. Who Decides Transportation Options?<br />Copenhagen Bike Highway <br />Sharing the city, not just consuming.<br />How do we live together, diversity in harmony?<br />
    78. 78. Urban Futures<br />What futures will you make?<br />What stories will your city tell future gens?<br />
    79. 79. Thank you!<br />DrCindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse FrewenArchitects and University of Houston Futures Studies <br />http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com<br />
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