2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt
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Urban Futures for Architects - presented to Introduction to Architecture class at University of Kansas School of Architecture 22 Sep 2011. Topics covered:...

Urban Futures for Architects - presented to Introduction to Architecture class at University of Kansas School of Architecture 22 Sep 2011. Topics covered:
1 How Do You Think About the Future? an overview of futures thinking, the change process
2 Big Urban Futures. demography, limited resources affecting 21st c cities
3 Architecture, Language and You. Places you can see the future today

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  • Petals: Site, Water, Energy, Health, Materials, Equity, and Beauty w/ 20 imperativesBiophilia, Red Zone materials, The Center for Sustainable Living is a wastewater filtration facility that is designed to use the treated water for garden irrigation and in a greywater recovery system, Omega will use the system and building as a teaching tool in their educational program designed around the ecological impact of their campus.

2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt 2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt Presentation Transcript

  • urban futures
    A presentation by
    Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies
    For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011
  • space
    time
    language
    http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com
    @urbanverse
    Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA
  • 3
    housing & schools
    public projects
    master planning
  • cities
    buildings
    movables
    wearables
  • cities
    buildings
    movables
    wearables
    language
  • Urban Futures Perspective
    Thinking About the Future?
    Big Urban Futures
    Architecture, Language + You
  • I. How do you ….
    Think about the future?
  • The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)
  • 4 Types of Change
  • S-Curve
    The Real Problem of Change
    S-Curve
    Peter Bishop, 2003
  • Herbert Spencer – Technology & Progress
    Future Society,
    altruistic
    Industrial Society
    Militant Society
    Barbarism
    Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
  • IDEA
    Late Culture
    Mass civilization
    Pre-culture
    Birth
    Death
    Time
    Oswald Spengler – Growth and Decline
    IDEA
    Late culture
    Mass culture
    Pre-Culture
    Death
    Birth
    TIME
    Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
  • The “Upside of Down” Prophecy
    Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)
    15
  • RianeEisler – Domination/Partnership
    Galtung & Inayatullah, 1997
  • Every day futures…
    How to apply futures thinking
  • Applied Futures Work
    Forecasting
    Describing the future
    With systems, cycles, trends, scenarios
    Planning
    Visions = Preferred Futures
    Influencing, strategies
  • 3 Types of Futures Thinking
    Futures Forces Thinking Techniques
    ProbableConstants Definite Historical Trends Extrapolation
    PlausibleDiscontinuities Imaginative Scenarios
    Surprises
    Preferable Choices Visionary Visioning
    Images Planning
    From Peter Bishop, 2003
  • Futures Methods
    Scanning Research, STEEP
    Forecasting Systems, Trends, Scenarios
    Visioning Preferred Vision, Goals
    Planning Mission, Strategy
    Acting Initiatives, Results
  • Economic
    Environmental
    Technological
    Immediate Environment
    Social
    Political
    STEEPEnvironmental Scan
    You
  • Causal Layered Analysis
    Time Scale of Change
    Problem
    Continuous
    Litany, Descriptions
    Causes
    Years
    Systems Analysis
    Worldview
    Decades
    Discourse Analysis
    Metaphors, Myths, Images
    Generations
    Inayatullah, 2004
  • II. Big Urban Futures
    What do you think might happen?
  • Cities and people
    3 Billion
    More People
  • Population Forecasts for Selected Countries
    2010 - 2100
    Nigeria
    India
    U.S.
    You
    China
  • US Population to 2050
    550m
    410m
    You
    320m
  • Population Over Age 60
    2005 - 2045
    You @60
    You
  • Megacities 1959 – 2000 - 2015
    You
  • Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030
    You
  • Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030
    You
  • Planet resources
    Limits to growth
  • World Oil Production
    2002- 2012
    You
  • Areas with High Water Stress
    You
  • Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil
  • Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change
  • What happens? Prices are going up…
  • What kind of cities??
    Choices or
    business as usual?
  • How much land do we need
    to live like…..
    Paris
    S.F.
    Paris
    N.Y.
    London
    Singapore
    Houston
  • US home size doubled in 50 years
    2000: 2,200sf
    1970: 1,500sf
    1950: 1,000sf
  • III. Architecture, Language + You
    What kinds of cities
    will you make?
  • Ways to think about urban futures …
    Language
    Social
    Co-creating
    Steady state
    diplomacy
  • 1. Architecture and language
    The city as language
  • 44
    Mythic Cities
    Utopia
    High Tech
    Fortress
    Gaia
  • 45
    metaphoric cities
    garden
    family
    bird
    machine
  • Omega Center for Sustainable Living
    Rhinebeck NY
    BNIM Architects
    Living Cities
  • Beauty with meaning
    Seed Cathedral
    Shanghai World Expo
    UK Pavilion
    Thomas Heatherwick, architect
  • People first
    Oakland CA Existing Street
  • From Dead Zones
    To Lovable
    Oakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes
  • 2. The Social City
    IRL, virtual, and you
  • A
    Entry Points
    The Conversation Prism
    Brian Solis + JESS
  • Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010
    From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade
  • Social networks; peer to peer
    Digital Added to Real World
    New Fantasy Worlds
    Representations of reality; maps
    Second Life
    Metaverse Roadmap modified
  • Layar –
    on android cell phone
  • New York Phantom City Tour
    Phantomcity.org
  • Heads Up display wearable lenses
    Vernor Vinge
    Rainbows End
  • Heads Up Display
  • Times Square NYC
    Networked Omniscient Exhibit
    You’ll know the social city far differently.
  • 3. Co-Creating the City
    Hacking the City
  • Guerrilla art
    underground
    The Underbelly Project
    Abandoned Subway
    New York City
  • Guerilla art
    hillside
    Women, Morro de Providencia
    Rio de Janeiro, JR Artist
  • Guerilla gardening
  • D
    DIY Cities
    Germany electrical box bench
  • Making cities,
    not just looking
    Sydney Opera House
    JornUtzon Architect
  • 4. Steady State Cities
    How do we measure progress?
  • Data-driven choices
    Baltimore, CitiStats
  • Most Livable
    Vienna, Austria - Mercer
  • Greenest Cities
    Portland Oregon
  • Well-being
  • Walkability
    Mapping Walk Scores . . . .
    Seattle
  • Affecting Where We Live
    Zillow
  • 5. Urban Diplomacy
    Coming together
  • Resolving wicked problems
    Los Angeles …..
    17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.
  • Who Owns the Water?
  • Who Owns the Skyline?
  • Who Owns the Sidewalk?
  • Who Decides Transportation Options?
    Copenhagen Bike Highway
    Sharing the city, not just consuming.
    How do we live together, diversity in harmony?
  • Urban Futures
    What futures will you make?
    What stories will your city tell future gens?
  • Thank you!
    DrCindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse FrewenArchitects and University of Houston Futures Studies
    http://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com