German Gref. Cities 2011. Twelve Urban Trends of Critical Importanve to Russia
CITIES 2011 12German Gref,President and Chairman of theBoard of Sberbank Russia,for the Moscow Urban Forum URBAN TRENDS OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE TO RUSSIA
Russia’s cities is being impacted by all of the key trendsinfluencing the development of today’s global cities. AEROTROPOLIS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATIONS SHRINKING CITIES STRATEGIC PLANNING PUBLIC SPACES CITY 3.0 URBANIZATION CITY 2.0 EVENT ECONOMY NEW URBANISM SMART GROWTH CITY BRANDING DEINDUSTRIALIZATION GENTRIFICATION METROPOLIZATION CITY 1.0
1. URBANIZATIONUrbanization of world economy and population iscontinuing to grow.Over 50% of the world’s population lives in cities. Over 60% will live in cities by 2025.
Urban population expanded 4 times since 1950.80% of global GDP is produced in cities.The world’s 600 largest cities produce 60% of global GDP.20% of total world population is settled in those 600 cities.The world’s 100 largest cities will account for 35% of global GDPgrowth by 2025*Dubai 1990 2003 2007(UAE) 0.370 mln 1.204 mln 1.870 mln residents** residents** residents**McKinsey Study “Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities”**censuses in 1985; 2005; 2010
74% of the Russian population lives in cities.Only one-third of Russian urban population lives in large cities.Small cities will continue to suffer population losses,Millionaire cities will continue to grow at their cost. Saint Petersburg, 4.868 mln people Moscow, 11.551 mln people Novosibirsk, 1.475 mln people
2. METROPOLIZATIONExpansion and transformation of large cities into vast economicregions encompassing significant swaths of surroundingterritory. METROPOLIS [from the Ancient Greek: μητρόπολις literally: “mother city”] - region comprising a densely-populated urban core and more sparsely-populated surrounding areas. The entire territory features an integrated infrastructure, industrial and residential structure. There is a trend towards concentration of the urban population within major cities and reduction of the relative population share of small towns continues in Russia.
Metropolization in Russia led to the collapse of all major cities.It is a result of city growth that was guided last 20 years by thecommercial interests of developers, not the strategic planning.Large-scale, unbalanced Map of commuter traffic from the Moscow Motor vehicle traffic resultingdevelopment of Greater Moscow suburbs into the downtown area between from commuter migration 08:00 and 10:00
• How city growth can be decentralized? Moscow Amalgamation with new territories will proceed on the• Which functions driving basis of decisions adopted by the governmental authorities of two of the Russian Federation’s constituent the city’s collapse should entities: the City of Moscow and Moscow Region be transferred to new territories?• How can business interest in the development of Moscow’s new territories be generated?• How can Moscow’s environmental problems be solved? Current territory New city limits Territory of Population of Moscow (as of August 2011) Kaluga Region centers СП – rural centers ГП – urban centers Expansion plan of Moscow’s city limits (2011)
3. SHRINKING CITIES- worldwide trend towards the population loss and economicdecline of the majority of small and medium-sized cities. InRussia part of those cities defined as monocities.DETROIT, USA2011
In Russia, several hundreds of small and medium-sized cities are in danger zone due to their heavy dependency on exhausting raw natural resources, or technologically obsolete industries.KARABASH, Chelyabinsk Region IULTIN, Chukotka Autonomous DistrictCenter of copper smelting industry, Center of tin and tungsten mining industry.Declared as an “ecological disaster zone” in 1996 by order of 1994 – mining wound down due to unprofitability.the RF Ministry of the Environment. 1995 – city of the many thousands was officially disbanded.Since 1989, the city’s population has fallen by 12% to15,057 residents.
The risk of shrinkage can threat even industrial areas of large cities. Russian cities have to elaborate the approaches of renovation of unused industrial sites.MURMANSKSince 1989, the city’s population has dropped by 34% to 307 664 residents.Together with its surrounding area, Murmansk is an important strategic center in Russia’s Northwest. Following dramatic budgetarycutbacks for the Russian Armed Forces in the 1990s, many bases were disbanded and the towns surrounding military facilitiesabandoned.
4. DEINDUSTRIALIZATION By the end of XX century, the industries were taken away from the territories of most global cities. Post-industrial redevelopment of those sites made a huge impact on cities growth.MOSCOW, 1920 MOSCOW, since 2007former brewery turned “Moskovskaya Bavaria” Winery “Vinzavod” Center of Modern Art.Complex.
The world has amassed a wealth of experience in terms of theeconomic development of the service sector and creativeindustries based on the redevelopment of old industrialfacilities. Those lessons should be learned, because Russiancities will have to enter the period of mass deindustrialization.BARCELONA, 1970 BARCELONA, 1975Cement plant Architectural offices, expo sites, apartments, hotel rooms, gardens
Beyond the fostering of creative industries and the service sector, the post-industrial redevelopment of industrial zones can also involve the formationof international financial centers, innovation centers and global universities.LONDON, 1980 LONDON, 2011Docklands in London – the biggest London’s new business district, aport in the world major international financial center
Industrial belt of Moscow occupies near 20% of its territory. The experience of redevelopment of former industrial zones is formed in Moscow. It ranges from very negative to quite interesting even within the scope of global standards.MOSCOW, until 2004 MOSCOW, 2010Garages at the site of the “Krasniy “Strelka” Institute for Media, ArchitectureOktyabr” Factory and Design; public space
5. CITIES 1.0, 2.0, 3.0In the second half of the XX Century, global cities fundamentally changedtheir development ideology, coming to embrace the concept that citiesshould provide people with a high quality of life. The global leaders didntstop there – having their vision on further development in terms of growinginto spaces, in which certain social groups find it convenient to live andwork. This is how global metropolises become network cities. CITIES 1.0 CITIES 3.0Modern Russian cities – work cities Direction 2 – Cities of the future Product – infrastructure Outpacing Post-informational cities CITIES OF MACHINES development Product – cultural codes, communications NETWORK CITIES Direction 2 – Catch-up development CITIES 2.0 Modern European cities “Liveable” cities Product – dwelling place PEOPLE CITIES
Most Russian cities still remain collapsed industrial cities. Many European cities are developing as ideal spaces for living. Global leaders pick and choose the residents, investors and tourists who share their vision.transportation cultural environment infrastructure cultural heritagecommunications housing and public security public spaces aesthetics utilities opportunity small business personal development international communications catering public transportation telecommunications education financial security communications jobs civil liberties commerce cultural sites IT-infrastructure housing environment (museums, galleries) congress-and-expo technology infrastructureKRASNOYARSK, 1.0 BERLIN, 2.0 SINGAPORE, 3.0
6. SMART GROWTHThe collapse of uncontrollably expanding cities formed the global demand forthe theory of Smart Growth, which is characterized by the pursuit of sustainabledevelopment and uses a comprehensive approach to the development ofinfrastructure, office and residential real estate, and public spaces. Office/commercial development - collapse of the city’s transportation infrastructure; - reduced quality of life chaotic, unbalanced development residential development territory brownfield grayfield greenfield smart growth sustainable urban development, increased quality of life comprehensive territorial analysis in creation of transportation balanced model the context of the city’s urban- and pedestrian infrastructure, of territorial planning development parks and public spaces, development preservation of historical environment
Smart growth is based on the 10 basic principles of the New Urbanism. Thisis the ideology of the compact “pedestrian” city or district featuring theservices residents need – and often jobs within walking distance of home. Pedestrian accessibility High-quality architecture and urban planning Traditional neighbourhood Connectivity structure High density Multifunctionality and diversity Green transportation Diversified and mixed Sustainable development developmentQUALITY OF LIFE: taken together, these principles create a high quality of life and allow for theformation of comfortable residential areas, populated by more stable and highly-developed communities.
7. MARKETING AND BRANDING OF CITIES AND PLACESIncreased competition among cities for residents, tourists and investors hasfocused the sharp attention on the need for the professional branding ofplaces, just like the branding of goods and services is done for the commercialmarkets.
8. PUBLIC SPACES- the most critical infrastructure element of City 2.0 – a city geared towardsthe individual and ensuring a high quality of life. Comfortable parks,boulevards, grounds and squares brimming with social and economic life – acharacteristic feature of global cities.
Public spaces are so important for global cities that they have priority over commercial development within the brownfields renovation projects.New York, 2009High-Line – Manhattan park located about 10 metersabove ground level – until the 1980s, served as a linein the city’s elevated rail network. In the 1990s, it wasdecided to transform the line into a park path.
Soviet-era squares and boulevards failed to become fully-fledged public spaces relevant to residents’ daily lives. Post-soviet cities will need to make quite an effort to fill their frequently-empty squares and parks with life.DONETSK, Lenin Square KHABAROVSK, Lenin Square
While other global cities have been busy freeing-up their previously- developed territories to make way for new public spaces, Moscow has managed to permit the commercial development of a whole range of priceless spaces in the city center.MOSCOW, Manezh MOSCOW, Manezh
9. EVENT ECONOMY Economic sector that becoming more and more significant to urban development. The event economy is used as a driver for the development of many territories through the attraction of investments and tourism flows.MOSCOW, 1980 SINGAPORE, 2010Olympic Games Youth Olympic Games
Event economy has become a mainstay of development for many citiesin Europe and US throughout the post-industrial period. museum capital Bilbao, Spain Population: 353,200 specialization: cultural and museum center exhibition capital Hanover, Germany Population: 522,600 specialization: exhibitions, conferences, events concert capital Vienna, Austria Population: 1,670,300 specialization: music concerts (opera, philharmonic, etc.), museum exhibitions
Russia’s cities must develop their congress-and-exhibition infrastructure (hotels, expo-centers, congress centers) in order to participate in the global event economy, which share is now close to 2% of global GDP Official catalogue Guest registration Administration WCPAVILION No. 5 CafePAVILION No. 1 TelephonePAVILION No. 2 First aid pointPAVILION No. 8 Bus stop“FORUM” PAVILIONPAVILION No. 6 Subway station Expo customs point Currency exchange, ATM h ort Front office en nc Police tra En Level one th En s ou tr ce we ance an st Entr M Vy etro st a StaPAVILION No. 3 vo tio ch n naPAVILION No. 4 yaPAVILION No. 7
10. AEROTROPOLISFor any modern city, airport quality is of vital importance. For some globalcities, the airport enjoys a status of such prominence that they are calledaerotropolises – cities developing around and on the basis of airports.
Airports have emerged as the drivers of business and urban development in the 21st century, just as highways were in the 20th Century, railways were in the 19th Century, and seaports were in the 18th Century. The aerotropolis is quickly becoming the focal point of urban activity, where airline passengers and local residents alike can work, shop, conduct business, dine, sleep and find entertainment options – all within 15 minutes of the airport. The state of most Russian airports and their associated economies leaves something to be desired.AMSTERDAM, Schiphol Airport KAZAN, Kazan International AirportPopulation: 780,152 Population: 1,196,738Passenger turnover: 45.2 mln (2010) Passenger turnover: 958,600 (2010)Schiphol – critical aviation gateway to Europe, along Kazan’s only civil aviation airport. Kazan – Russia’s geographicalwith Heathrow Airport in England, Frankfurt Airport center, with tremendous potential to develop into one of thein Germany, and Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris country’s main transportation hubs.
11. STRATEGIC PLANNINGUrban planning has been called the most complex interdisciplinary field of study. Urbandevelopment depends on economics, politics, sociology, culture, science and technology. Urbanplanning at the end of the XX Century – beginning of the XXI Century has demanded dramaticqualitative improvements to the strategic planning of the world’s cities. In Russia, only twomajor cities (Kazan and Perm) enjoy European-quality strategies and master plans. Developinginternational-quality strategies for at least 15 of the country’s major cities is essential toensuring the competitiveness of the domestic economy.strategic master plan of Perm, Russia (2010)
10. URBAN DEVELOPMENT CORPORATIONSThe complexity and sheer scope of urban and territorial transformation have createduniversal demand for Urban Development Corporations, which have assumed a central rolein organizing coordination between cities and investors and preparing sites for new types ofdevelopment.Development strategy for the Thames Docks, managed by theLondon Development Agency, Great Britain