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  • Trends and events that affect the economy also create opportunities and problems in obtaining human resources. To prepare for and respond to these challenges, organizations engage in human resource planning – defined in Chapter 1 as identifying the numbers and types of employees the organization will require to meet its objectives.
  • Figure 5.1 shows the human resource planning process. The process consists of three stages: Forecasting Goal setting and strategic planning Program implementation and evaluation
  • The first step in human resource planning is forecasting. The primary goal is to predict which areas of the organization will experience labor shortages or surpluses.
  • Usually an organization forecasts demand for specific job categories or skill areas. After identifying the relevant job categories or skills, the planner investigates the likely demand for each. The planner must forecast whether the need for people with the necessary skills and experience will increase or decrease. There are several ways of making such forecasts.
  • Once a company has forecast the demand for labor, it needs an indication of the firm’s labor supply.
  • Table 5.1 is an example of a transitional matrix. Matrices such as this one are extremely useful for charting historical trends in the company’s labor supply.
  • Issues related to a labor surplus or shortage can pose serious challenges for the organization.
  • Transcript

    • 1. The Process of Human Resource Planning• Organizations need to do human resource planning so they can meet business objectives and gain a competitive advantage over competitors. – Human resource planning compares the present state of the organization with its goals for the future – Then identifies what changes it must make in its human resources to meet those goals
    • 2. Overview of the Human Resource Planning Process
    • 3. Human Resource Forecasting• HR Forecasting attempts There are three major to determine the supply steps to forecasting: and demand for various types of human resources, 1. Forecasting the demand and to predict areas for labor within the organization 2. Determining labor where there will be labor supply shortages or surpluses. 3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages
    • 4. HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNINGFORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS) (Trying to predict future staffing needs) Managerial Estimates Sales Projections Simulations Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS) (Predicting worker flows and availabilities) Succession or Replacement Charts Skills Inventories (use of HRIS) Labor Market Analysis Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix) Personnel Ratios
    • 5. Forecasting the Demand for LaborTrend Analysis• Constructing and applying statistical models that predict labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective statistics from the previous year.Leading Indicators• Objective measures that accurately predict future labor demand.
    • 6. CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONSSIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES 200 240 300 260 400 470 500 500 600 620 700 660 800 820 900 860
    • 7. SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECASTMODEL Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)Y = Number of employees needed to staff the storeX1 = Square feet of sales spaceX2 = Population of metropolitan areaX3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million) Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17 Y = 86 employees needed at this store
    • 8. VACANCY ANALYSIS Historic departures used to project turnoverLEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to RemainTOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760TOTALS 3500 536 2964AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531
    • 9. Determining Labor Supply Predicting Worker Flows and Availabilities• Succession or Replacement ChartsWho has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW?• Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur.• Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of employees in each of those job categories in a future period.It answers two questions:1. “Where did people in each job category go?”2. “Where did people now in each job category come from?• Personnel / Yield RatiosHow much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?
    • 10. SUCCESSION PLANNINGREPLACEMENT CHART FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONSPOSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION------------------------------------------------------------------------POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGERDANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now PRESENT PROMOTIONPOSSIBLE CANDIDATES CURRENT POSITION PERFORMANCE POTENTIALSHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding Ready NowGEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding Needs TrainingHARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs TrainingTRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Satisfactory Questionable-------------------------------------------------------------------------
    • 11. HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS (HRIS)PERSONAL DATA Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etcEDUCATION & SKILLS Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications Languages spoken, Specialty skills Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/softwareJOB HISTORY Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc. Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & DevelopmentMEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishmentsPREFERENCES & INTERESTS Career goals, Types of positions sought Geographic preferencesCAPACITY FOR GROWTH Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company
    • 12. Transition MatrixExample for an Auto Parts Manufacturer
    • 13. MARKOV ANALYSIS (STATISTICAL REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS) TO:  A TRANSITION MATRIXFROM: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT TOP .80 .02 .18 MID .10 .76 .04 .10LOW .06 .78 .01 .15SKILL .01 .84 .15ASSY .05 .88 .07 ------------------------------------------
    • 14. MARKOV ANALYSIS – 2 (Captures effects of internal transfers)(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIXFROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXITTOP 100 .80 .02 .18MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07---------------------------------------------------------END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 totNEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) totKEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot
    • 15. MARKOV ANALYSIS – 3 (Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers (660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by year’s end.-------------------------------------------------------(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIXFROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXITTOP 100 .80 .02 .18MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07---------------------------------------------------------END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot
    • 16. Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage• Based on the forecasts for labor demand and supply, the planner can compare the figures to determine whether there will be a shortage or surplus of labor for each job category.• Determining expected shortages and surpluses allows the organization to plan how to address these challenges.
    • 17. PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOSPast experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEWOF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATIONOF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITIONOF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAMTHUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that 8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that 1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and 1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!

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