The Carbon Crunch- why has so     little been achieved?                   Edinburgh University Business SchoolBusiness and...
The Questions  • What are the causes of global warming?        – Facing up to some inconvenient facts  • Why has so little...
An ever-upward path                       Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)400390380370360350340330   1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19...
What causes global warming?       •     The role of coal       •     China       •     Population growth       •     Carbo...
Historical coal burn vs atmospheric CO2 (mt                   & ppm)                                                      ...
World coal demand scenarios to 2035 (mt)                  9000                  8000                  7000                ...
Population growth – the projections                                          Source: United Nations15/11/2012        Profe...
What is likely to happen before 2020?By 2020:• China X 2 GDP• India X 2 GDP• 400 – 600 GWs new coal (if 12th 5 year plan  ...
Why has so little been achieved?             • Kyoto is production-based             • Europe has been de-industrialising ...
EU Climate Change Package       • 2020 – 20 – 20 It all adds up to 20!!!!       • World leadership – offering 30% at      ...
Europe: an unviable position              Competitiveness                                                   Consumption   ...
How do we make progress?     • Carbon pricing     • Carbon consumption and border       adjustments     • Coal  gas subst...
Carbon taxes v. EU ETS                   35                                                                    A carbon ta...
Coal  gas for the transition                     Fossil fuel emissions              1000               800               ...
The new technologies – future    renewables, active grids and more…        •    Next generation solar        •    Smart Me...
Conclusions        • European leadership has failed        • 2020 – 20 – 20 has probably made matters          worse      ...
8/ 21/ 12           The Carbon Crunch by Dieter Helm -‐‑Yale University Press       15/11/2012   Professor Dieter Helm
www.dieterhelm.co.uk•   The economic analysis of biodiversity: an assessment, with Cameron Hepburn, Oxford    Review of Ec...
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Professor Dieter Helm: The Carbon Crunch: Why has so little been achieved

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Professor Dieter Helm: The Carbon Crunch: Why has so little been achieved

  1. 1. The Carbon Crunch- why has so little been achieved? Edinburgh University Business SchoolBusiness and Climate Change Series, November 14th 2012 Professor Dieter Helm University of Oxford
  2. 2. The Questions • What are the causes of global warming? – Facing up to some inconvenient facts • Why has so little been achieved? – Recognising current failures • How do we make progress? – Delivering effective climate mitigation15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  3. 3. An ever-upward path Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)400390380370360350340330 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: US Department of Commerce National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  4. 4. What causes global warming? • The role of coal • China • Population growth • Carbon consumption, not production15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  5. 5. Historical coal burn vs atmospheric CO2 (mt & ppm) 6000 400 Coal consumption (million tonnes of coal equivalent) 390 5000 380 Atmospheric CO2 (ppm) 4000 370 3000 360 2000 350 1000 Coal consumption Atmospheric CO2 340 0 330 Source: US Department of Commerce National Oceanic15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), BP statistical review of world energy 2011
  6. 6. World coal demand scenarios to 2035 (mt) 9000 8000 7000 6000 Million tonnes 5000 New policies 4000 Current policies 450 scenario 3000 2000 1000 0 1980 2009 2020 203515/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  7. 7. Population growth – the projections Source: United Nations15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  8. 8. What is likely to happen before 2020?By 2020:• China X 2 GDP• India X 2 GDP• 400 – 600 GWs new coal (if 12th 5 year plan implemented in China)• No further action following Durban15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  9. 9. Why has so little been achieved? • Kyoto is production-based • Europe has been de-industrialising • Current renewables are expensive and contribute little • Nuclear is reducing across Europe (especially in UK and Germany) + being replaced by coal in Germany15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  10. 10. EU Climate Change Package • 2020 – 20 – 20 It all adds up to 20!!!! • World leadership – offering 30% at Copenhagen And then…. • Nuclear exit • More coal • 2050 Roadmap and 2030 targets15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  11. 11. Europe: an unviable position Competitiveness Consumption of carbon Costs• Current renewables cannot make much difference to global climate change– land & shallow sea areas just not big enough• Energy efficiency – good idea but does not necessarily reduce energy demand 15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  12. 12. How do we make progress? • Carbon pricing • Carbon consumption and border adjustments • Coal  gas substitution And then…. • Enormous scope for new technologies – future renewables15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  13. 13. Carbon taxes v. EU ETS 35 A carbon tax 30 alternative 25Carbon price EUR 20 15 10 EU ETS futures prices 5 0 Source: Bloomberg 15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  14. 14. Coal  gas for the transition Fossil fuel emissions 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Coal (average) Fuel oil Natural gas Approximate CO2 emissions: grammes of CO2 per KwH of electricity generated Source: International Energy Agency "CO2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm 2011"
  15. 15. The new technologies – future renewables, active grids and more… • Next generation solar • Smart Meters • Storage and batteries • Electrification of transport • Biotechnologies • Nuclear: PRISM, Fast-breeders • Carbon Capture and Storage15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  16. 16. Conclusions • European leadership has failed • 2020 – 20 – 20 has probably made matters worse • Durban will probably lead to 450ppm ++ EITHER: • Change tack now • Admit defeat15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  17. 17. 8/ 21/ 12 The Carbon Crunch by Dieter Helm -‐‑Yale University Press 15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm
  18. 18. www.dieterhelm.co.uk• The economic analysis of biodiversity: an assessment, with Cameron Hepburn, Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2012) 28(1): 1-21• European Energy Policy, in: The Oxford Handbook of the European Union Edited by E Jones, A Menon, and S Weatherill, OUP, August 2012.• The UK’s new dash for gas, Prospect, 20th September 2012.• Trade, climate change and the political game theory of border carbon adjustments, with Cameron Hepburn and Giovanni Ruta, May 2012, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Working Paper No. 80.• Surprise – the oil price isn’t higher, Prospect, April 2012.• The sustainable borders of the state, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 27 no 4, winter 2012.• What next for EU energy policy?, in Green, safe, cheap: Where next for EU energy policy? edited by Katinka Barysch, Centre for European Reform, 2011.• The Economics and Politics of Climate Change, Helm, D. R. and Hepburn, C. (eds), (new edition 2011), Oxford University Press.15/11/2012 Professor Dieter Helm

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