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  • 1. 1
  • 2. National survey of American electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error National survey of Latino electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error MOE 4.4% on split-sampled questions. Field dates, October 21 – November 1, 2011 Telephone survey of registered voters, land lines and cell phones Survey designed and implemented by Latino Decisions2
  • 3. Obama 51% Romney 42% Undecided 7% Obama 49% Cain 43% Undecided 7% Obama 52% Perry 42% Undecided 6% 33
  • 4. Obama 67% Romney 24% Undecided 9% Obama 65% Cain 22% Undecided 13% Obama 68% Perry 21% Undecided 11%4
  • 5.     90% 80% 70% 26% 60% 50% 26% 36% 13% 40% 24% 30% 51% 12% 20% 37% 37% 30% 22% 24% 16% 10% 17% 3% 5% 0% Obama Obama Obama Obama Congress Congress Congress Congress Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval 48% 50% 66% 29% 19% 77% 27% 63% National Latino National Latino5
  • 6.   25% 23% National Electorate 20% 18% Latino Electorate 15% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 0% Romney Perry Cain Paul Bachman Gingrich Huntsman6
  • 7.   50% 44% 43% 45% 39% 39% 38% 40% 35% 34% 35% 28% 29% 30% Favorable 25% 26% 25% Unfavorable 19% 20% No Opinion/Never Heard 15% 10% 5% 0% Romney Perry Cain Gingrich7
  • 8.   60% 55% 53% 50% 46% 43% 44% 45% 40% 37% 34% 35% 31% 30% Favorable 27% Unfavorable 25% 23% 21% 21% No Opinion/Never Heard 20% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Romney Perry Cain Gingrich8
  • 9. 9
  • 10.   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republican 40% 32% 7% 1% Democrat 40% 33% 5% 2% National Other, Undecided, DK 19% Republican 18% 13% 3% 2% Latino Democrat 59% 49% 8% 2% Other, Undecided, DK 23%10
  • 11.   60% 54% 50% 46% 40% 30% 20% 16% 10% 9% 0% Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care Economy Reform Reform Respondents  allowed  up  to  two  men/ons.  11
  • 12.   All Voters Latinos 80% 74% 70% 65% 60% 50% 40% 30% 23% 21% 20% 16% 12% 10% 10% 5% 0% Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care Economy Reform Reform12
  • 13. Lets say one of the candidates had a plan to improve the economy that you supported, and on the immigration issue the candidate said, quote: [half of sample receives each quote] –  illegal immigrants are a threat to America who have committed a crime, we can never support amnesty for illegals –  America is a nation of immigrants, we need to treat immigrants with respect and dignity and help them assimilate into America instead of attacking them end quote. Would that statement make you more likely to support the candidate, less likely to support the candidate, or would you not care what they said about immigration if you agreed with their plan for the economy?13
  • 14.   All Voters Latinos 70% 60% 59% 50% 41% 40% 30% 25% 19% 20% 14% 15% 10% 0% More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they said14
  • 15.   All Voters Latinos 80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 46% 40% 30% 22% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they said15
  • 16. 16
  • 17.     Support Oppose 90% 84% 80% 70% 60% 58% 50% 40% 30% 28% 20% 11% 10% 0% All Voters Latinos17
  • 18.   All Voters Latinos 80% 70% 67% 60% 58% 50% 40% 30% 25% 20% 14% 13% 14% 10% 0% Path to Citizenship Guestworker program Deport illegal immigrants18
  • 19.   Democratic Party Republican Party 60% 53% 50% 40% 39% 34% 30% 20% 15% 10% 0% All Voters Latinos19
  • 20.   Legitimate Concern 80% Using to Block Progress 68% 67% 67% 66% 70% 62% 62% 58% 58% 60% 50% 40% 31% 29% 30% 24% 22% 20% 20% 17% 17% 13% 10% 0% All All Republicans Republicans Democrats Democrats Independents Independents National Sample   Latinos  20
  • 21.     Favorable Unfavorable DK/No Opinion Support Oppose DK/No Opinion 45% 40% 60% 55% 38% 38% 40% 36% 50% 47% 35% 30% 40% 35% 24% 24% 25% 30% 20% 22% 23% 15% 20% 18% 10% 10% 5% 0% 0% National Latino National Latino21
  • 22.   50% 47% 45% 45% 42% National 40% Latinos 35% 32% 33% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 13% 14% 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% Reaching Out Dont Care Hostile Reaching Out Dont Care Hostile Democratic Party Republican Party22
  • 23. 19% Illegal in all cases 15% Latinos 35% All voters Only to save the woman 28% 38% Legal in most cases 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%23
  • 24. 26% No legal recognition Latinos 35% All voters 13% Civil unions 19% 43% Legally Marry 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%24
  • 25. 25
  • 26.     Bush Obama Both Neither Obama and Democrats Republicans 80% Both Neither 70% 67% 60% 57% 60% 50% 50% 50% 42% 43% 40% 33% 40% 30% 30% 24% 19% 20% 20% 7% 8% 7% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% 2% 2% 0% 0% National Latino National Latino26
  • 27. Latinos All Voters 25% People responsible to get their own 43% 60% Government should ensure access 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%27
  • 28.   All Voters Latinos 50% 47% 45% 44% 40% 39% 35% 30% 29% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Repeal 2010 Health Care Keep it as law28
  • 29. Latino National 42% Tax Cuts for all 44% 50% Tax Cuts only under $250k 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%29
  • 30.     Republicans Independents Democrats Republicans Independents Democrats 60% 60% 53% 49% 50% 50% 47% 50% 47% 39% 40% 40% 30% 30% 31% 29% 29% 30% 26% 25% 30% 27% 22% 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 0% 0% More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in 2012 2008 2012 200830
  • 31. The Bottom Line for the American Electorate 1-year Out •  The President leads his rivals by modest but statistically meaningful margins; •  Moreover, the GOP candidates face signi cant hurdles in favorability/unfavorability; •  The Enthusiasm Gap signi cantly favors Republicans; •  The President struggles nationally on support for health reform and trust in him to x the economy; •  But the Democrats have closed the generic House vote to even, and the public is dissatis ed with the GOP Congress.31
  • 32. The Bottom Line for the Hispanic Electorate 1-year Out •  The President enjoys 2-1 margins over his likely opponents among Latino registered voters; •  GOP candidates are neither well-known nor well-liked: –  GOP has signi cant room to improve Latino outreach; •  Hispanic policy preferences solidly Democratic as well: –  Even on social issues, Latino social conservatism is eroding or altogether missing; •  Immigration sentiments nationally are far more favorable to Latino positions than widely understood: –  But are often drowned out by a passionate minority.32