Wind energy eskom mohsin seedat 2010

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Wind energy eskom mohsin seedat 2010

  1. 1. Wind EnergyPresented By: Mohsin Seedat 15 July 2010
  2. 2. Structure of Presentation• Strategic benefits of Wind• Project SERE Background• Global Wind Market• Wind Technology Progression• Africa’s share of the global wind market• Overall growth drivers• Investment Attractiveness• R&D in WTG designs• OEMs - business system and supplier relationships• Case Study: Germany• Case Study :Germany (Incentives)• What is required to nurture Wind in RSA• Value adding Localisation Opportunities• Q&A2011/01/21 2
  3. 3. Strategic Benefits of Wind • Wind is a Renewable Energy resourceSecurity of • No Dependency on Fossil Fuels Supply • No Exposure to Fuel Supply Risks • No Exposure to Fuel Price Volatility • Non Polluting & Non Consuming Resource • Zero C02, S0x, N0x and other atmospheric pollutantsEnvironmental • Zero Water Consumption • No Waste products (i.e. ash, dust, waste water, spent fuel) • No Waste Disposal Cost • Zero Short Run Marginal CostFinancial • Very Low decommissioning and rehabilitation costs • Low O & M costsTransmission • Coastal Location, closer to load centre resulting in reduced line losses
  4. 4. Project SERE Background• Eskom’s R&D research into cleaner technologies led to the commissioning of demo wind farm (Klipheuwel) in 2003,• Govt released RE strategy with target of 10 000GWh by 2013• Favourable data and key learnings from the demo plant coupled to independent studies by GTZ, CSIR indicated considerable distributed potential of Wind in South Africa,• In 2006 Eskom Board approved 100MW Wind project on the West coast• As with many projects in the world, the project was delayed due to funding constraints• NERSA released REFIT as an incentive mechanism in 2009 [Source: Tennessee Valley authority]• Funding approvals by the Clean Technology Fund and other Multi Lateral Development Banks enable resumption of the project 2011/01/21 4
  5. 5. Global Wind Market &Technology Progression Three-bladed, upwind, variable-speed, pitch-regulated turbines currently predominate onshore. 1.5MW de-facto standard in 2008/09 WT technology is different for offshore projects: there are strong reasons why individual turbine size is significantly larger, and turbines of 5 MW and more are being aimed at this market The principal design drivers are now grid compatibility, cost of energy (which includes reliability), acoustic emissions, visual appearance and suitability for site conditions. Growth in size of commercial Wind Turbine Generators Source: Garrard Hassan 2011/01/21 5Global installed capacity has been increasing at an average of 35 per cent since 2005
  6. 6. Africa‟ s Share of the Global Wind Market •Share in global cumulativeRegional distribution of cumulative installed wind capacities globally – 2009 year end •50.0 installed capacities•Total = 157900 MW •Percent •Europe •US & •48 •24 •Canada MEA •China •0.6 •16 •Latam •India •0.8 •7 •RoAsia •1.8 •Pacific •1.4 Africa & Middle East: Detailed cumulative capacity by country (MW) Egypt •: 430 •Tunisia •:54 Israel •:8 Morocco 253 •Cape Verde 12 Kenya 5 2011/01/21SOURCE: GWEC Iran •: 91 •South Africa •: 8 Other •:4 6
  7. 7. Overall growth drivers Key growth drivers Potential barriers to growth•Europe • High CO2 price due to Kyoto protocol • Public resistance against onshore turbines • EU regulations and subsidy schemes • Political support for other renewable technologies • Currently high oil and gas prices • Ramp-down of nuclear power plants•US • Political desire for energy independence, e.g., the “fear factor” • Limited grid capacity to key wind areas vis-à-vis Middle East • Increasing energy demand • Currently high oil prices•China • Strong increase of power demand requires fast installation of new • Overall weak transmission capacity capacity • Weak domestic industry • Environmental problems/wish for “clean air” • Transportation issues for larger WTGs • Will to foster strong domestic industry•India • Strong increase in power demand • Differing regulations across provinces • Independence from highly • Very weak grid in some areas unreliable grid • Transportation issues for larger WTGs • Tax saving schemes 2011/01/21 7Source: Mckinsey
  8. 8. Investment Attractiveness2011/01/21 8
  9. 9. Wind Turbine Main Components Source: Nordex
  10. 10. Wind Turbine Value Chain Source: Mainstream
  11. 11. Mainly Western OEMs - business system andsupplier relationships Outsourced Mixed mode Insourced Rotor blades Gearboxes Generators Towers ControllersVestas Vestas Bosch Rexroth, Weier, Elin, ABB, Vestas, NEG, Vestas(Cotas), Hansen, Winergy, LeroySomer DMI, NEG (Dancontrol) MoventasGE Wind LM, Tecsis Winergy, Hansen, Loher, GE DMI, Omnical, GE Bosch Rexroth, SIAG Eickhoff GEGamesa Gamesa, LM Echesa(Gamesa) Ingelectric Gamesa Ingelectric Winergy, (Gamesa) (Gamesa) Hansen CantareyEnercon Enercon N/A Enercon KGW, SAM EnerconSiemens Wind Siemens - LM Winergy ABB Roug, KGW Siemens, KK ElectronicSuzlon Suzlon - LM Hansen, Winergy Suzlon, Siemens Suzlon Suzlon, Mita TechnicRepower LM Winergy, Renk N/A N/A Mita Technic ReGuardNordex GmbH Nordex Winergy, Eikhoff, Loher Nordex Nordex, Mita Maag Omnical TechnikMitsubishi Mitsubishi, TPI Ishibashi Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Mitsubishi2011/01/21 11
  12. 12. R&D in WTG designs2011/01/21 12
  13. 13. Case Study: Germany OverviewGermany has one of the largest installed bases inEurope, but in 2009, it had to forego its secondranking in the world to make way for China’s blazinggrowth. The German wind energy market blossomedearly in the 21st century and later growth slackenedas other regions began promoting renewables moreaggressively.The wind technologies market has proved to be alucrative export business for Germany. Thepresence of major wind energy companies hasfurther added to the country’s strength. About 85per cent of the components manufactured areexported to other countries, generating more than€7.2 billion as revenues. Backed by a solidengineering base, Germany is a haven for windturbine/components manufacturing companies asan export base. 2011/01/21 13
  14. 14. Case Study :Germany(Incentives)2011/01/21 14
  15. 15. What is required to nurture Wind in RSARegulatory ‘Govt needs to provide ‘ Bold line of sight ‘ Simplify some of the ‘Speed up approvals regulatory certainty for renewable targets complex processes’Framework required to provide Renewables.’ requirements’ guidance to NERSA, EIA industry’Incentives „Appropriate incentives required for ‘ Appropriate Incentives development of Renewables value chain in for development and RSA’ production of renewable energy’ 2011/01/21 15
  16. 16. Value adding Localisation Opportunities Media and press releasesWind Resource MeasurementsProject Development of Windfarms “Transforming this sector is therefore urgently needed and Suzlon believes that wind power can play a big role inComponents manufacturing and servicing (+R&D) helping South Africa reduce its carbon emissions and creating sustainable long term career opportunities for South Africans”,• Turbines (tubular or other) – Mo Siddiqui, Regional Manager of Suzlon Wind Energy Africa at the Africa Utility Week, in Durban, RSA, Feb• Blades (carbon fibre or glass fibre) 2010• Control Systems "We come in to provide technical support to consortiums• Transformers( pad or nacelle mounted) trying to develop renewable energy projects" (…) "Later we could come in again as equipment suppliers." (…) There is the technical skill and capability to• Special coatings manufacture components for both CSP and wind in South Africa," (…) "Just about everything could be• Pitch & Yaw motors manufactured locally but it all depends on economies of scale.• Cabling "– Dion Govender , Chief Executive of Siemens Energy• Others… Southern Africa in The Star, Mar 10, 2010General PM & Construction of Windfarms "Our approach fits in well with the black economic empowerment framework. We have the technologyOperation and Maintenance of Windfarms and the partner will bring local expertise (for South Africa). We are talking to some local entities (…)Wind Turbine Maintenance (3rd party licensing) Partnership is key in our growth model (…) We are particularly excited about wind"Electric Maintenance (3rd party licensing – Jay Wileman, newly appointed regional executive at GE, inRemote Operation and data analysis Comtex All Africa, Aug 12, 2009 2011/01/21 16
  17. 17. Q&A2011/01/21 17

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