Dti solar park cob pillay 2010

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Dti solar park cob pillay 2010

  1. 1. CCI Clean Energy Program Presentation to the Asian Development Bank 15 June, 2009Introduction to Solar Park Concept and Technologies Information Session – Pretoria 14 September, 2010
  2. 2. Introductions - The Clinton Climate Initiative• “The Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI) works under the leadership of government partners, and in collaboration with private sector sponsors, to develop and implement large-scale projects that directly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and serve as replicable and scalable models for others to follow…”• Three Focus Areas: Cities, Clean Energy, and Forestry• Within Clean Energy: • Utility Scale Solar – India, Australia, U.S.A., Morocco and South Africa • Carbon Capture and Sequestration• Clean Energy Team includes people withy backgrounds in: • Project Finance, Private Equity, Strategy Consulting, Power Industry, Electrical Engineering, Policy Development and Politics• CCI is completely independent and has no financial ties to any particular company, technology, or project 2 CONFIDENTIAL
  3. 3. CCI – Solar Park Concept• A Solar Park is a concentrated zone of solar development, pre-permitted to include power plants developed by private investors – Convoy Deployment – Shared Infrastructure – Streamlined permitting processes, regulatory approvals and boilerplate contracts• Solar Parks can significantly reduce the cost of electricity from solar power due to – (i) economies of scale; – (ii) the use of less expensive domestically-manufactured components; and – (iii) removal of regulatory hurdles• Independent Engineering Analysis in Queensland, Australia: – 50-60% infrastructure cost-savings scaling from 250 MW to 1,000 MW – Results in 14-18% reduction in cost of electricity• “Coordinated Purchasing” of Components may lead to further reductions 3 CONFIDENTIAL
  4. 4. CCI Solar Program – South Africa Project Status• South Africa – MOU Signed between DOE and CCI to initiate pre-feasibility study (November 2009) – Pre-feasibility study completed (April 2010) – DOE developing a Solar Park Authority and procurement strategy – DTI consulting with local industry on capacity expansion and component procurement policies – National Treasury, DBSA, public pension funds and other financial stakeholders developing programmatic financing package for Solar Park IPPs – Northern Cape Government, the Municipality of Upington, ESKOM and an engineering partner (Fluor) on siting analysis and infrastructure planning – Investor Conference: September/October 2010 – Government likely to set an initial target for “Phase 1” of 1,000 MW by 2015 or 2016 4 CONFIDENTIAL
  5. 5. Solar Park Pre-Feasibility Study Conclusions (April 2010)• Optimal sites for solar found in Northern Cape – Strong solar radiation (DNI and GHI) on Government owned land – Water availability (for CSP) – Transmission capacity expansion planning underway• Solar can help South Africa meet “baseload” and “peak” power capacity needs• If developed in a “Solar Park” context and if incentives were designed to reduce interest rates for projects, various solar technologies can be competitive with coal-fired power by 2013• Once enough solar power is built, solar technologies can be competitive even at commercial financing rates• Capacity can be brought online incrementally in short time frame (unlike nuclear or coal)• Significant stimulus to local manufacturing and labor demand possible 5 CONFIDENTIAL
  6. 6. Solar Technology Summary• Concentrated Solar Thermal Power (“CSP”) plants concentrate heat from the sun to power a traditional steam turbine or engine to generate electricity – Parabolic Trough – Central Receiver (Tower) – Concentrated Linear Fresnel (CLFR) – Parabolic Dish Engine – Efficient thermal storage commercially proven; base-load generation demonstrated• Photovoltaic (“PV”) systems directly convert sunlight into direct current (DC) electricity – mono- and multi-crystalline (silica) PV – Thin-Film PV• Concentrated Photovoltaic (“CPV”) systems use refractive lenses to concentrate sunlight onto a series of highly efficient PV cells 6 CONFIDENTIAL
  7. 7. Solar Technologies - CSP Parabolic Trough Compact Linear Fresnel Central Receiver (Power Tower) Parabolic Dish w. Engine CONFIDENTIAL
  8. 8. State of CSP Market Installed Capacity by Technology Installed Capacity by Geography 3.0% 4.0%• CSP Market Driven by 0.2% 0.7% subsidies (Spanish 2.3% 46.3% Feed-in Tariff), which 92.7% 50.7% are being scaled back• 953 MW in operation Trough Tower Dish CLFR Hybrid USA Spain Other today Capacity in Construction by Technology Capacity in Construction by Geography• ~1,935 MW in 0.9% construction and over 0.1% 3.4% 15,000 MW reportedly 7.3% 3.9% in development 91.7% 92.7%• Parabolic trough most utilized technology to Trough Tower Dish Hybrid USA Spain Other date 8 CONFIDENTIAL
  9. 9. CSP – Parabolic Trough• ~880 MW in operation (in use since the “SEGS” plants of the 1980s)•Parabolic mirror focuses light on an “evacuated” tube that carries a heattransfer fluid (typically an oil)• Max steam inlet temperature of about 370 C•Storage capable•Individual collector loop ~150 to 170 meters; single-axis tracking 9 CONFIDENTIAL
  10. 10. CSP – Parabolic TroughSource: Worley Parsons 10 CONFIDENTIAL
  11. 11. CSP – Trough (Example of Variation Within Tech) LS – 3 Collector SENERTrough SGX – 1 Space FrameSources: NREL “Troughnet”; Sener 11 CONFIDENTIAL
  12. 12. CSP - Parabolic Trough Layout Source: Worley Parsons 12 CONFIDENTIAL
  13. 13. CSP – High-level Trough Schematic 13 CONFIDENTIAL
  14. 14. CSP – HTF Supply and Return 14 CONFIDENTIAL
  15. 15. CSP – Heat Exchanger 15 CONFIDENTIAL
  16. 16. CSP – Storage System Schematic COLD SALT HOT SALT Source: Worley Parsons 16 CONFIDENTIAL
  17. 17. CSP – Trough Plant with Storage in Construction • 2 tank system for a 50 MW plant with 8 hours storage •Each built to contains 30,000 tons of Salt • 39 meters in diameter • Over 1,000 MWth heat capacity• 9 CSP plants with thermal storage are in operation today (trough and tower),with up to 8 hours of storage capacity• 16 more are in construction, including one tower with 12 hours of storagecapacity (Gemasolar) 17 CONFIDENTIAL
  18. 18. CSP - Tower Receiver Heliostats• 38 MW in operation today• Higher temperature conditions than trough (up to 550 C)• May use molten salt as HTF, making “direct” storage possible• Tower height varies but can be up to ~220 meters• ~ 5,000 to 20,000 heliostats depending upon capacity and use of storage 18 CONFIDENTIAL
  19. 19. CSP - Tower • Vertical banks of tubes with top and bottom headers used to carry working fluid (can be molten salt or water) • High temperature alloy required • Slight curve in heliostats optimal depending upon tower size • ~2 to 200 m2 surface area per heliostat •Dual-axis tracking 19 CONFIDENTIAL
  20. 20. CSP – Tower with Molten Salt Loop 20 CONFIDENTIAL
  21. 21. CSP - CLFR • 7 MW currently in operation • Single-axis tracking, flat mirror facets focus heat onto single receiver • Lower levels of solar concentration than other CSP technologies, but lower CAPEX • Oil or water as heat transfer fluid • Inlet temperature ~260 C 21 CONFIDENTIAL
  22. 22. CSP – Dish Engine• ~2 MW currently in commercialoperation• Individual “dish” capacity of 25 to 80kW• Flat mirror facets assembled intoparabolic dish shape; dual-axis tracking• Mirrors focus light onto a StirlingEngine to directly generate electricity(thermal storage not possible) 22 CONFIDENTIAL
  23. 23. Solar Technologies – Photovoltaics (“PV”) Silica (crystalline) Module Thin-Film Module Silica (crystalline) Plant Thin-Film Plant 23 CONFIDENTIAL
  24. 24. State of PV Market – Capacity Grown and Geography• New installed capacity in 2009 totaled over 6,000 MW• Can be used for utility-scale or small, off-grid projects• As PV directly produces electricity, large-scale storage not economic• Module prices have dropped ~50% over the past two years•Geographical distribution of projects driven by subsidies (German and SpanishFeed-in Tariffs), which have also seen recent reductions 24 CONFIDENTIAL
  25. 25. State of PV Market – Decreasing Prices • PV price decreases driven by growing expansion of silicon processing capacity (now in over- supply) and growing thin-film manufacturing capacity Silica, ingots and wafers, cells, modules Solar Grade Silicon, $/kg 25 CONFIDENTIAL
  26. 26. PV –Solar Cell Schematic 26 CONFIDENTIAL
  27. 27. PV – Fixed-tilt and Tracking• Lower efficiency technologies (thin-film = 10-13% efficiency) typically do fixed-tilt• Higher efficiency (silica = 14-20% efficiency) utilize single-axis tracking Fixed-Tilt Horizontal Axis Vertical Axis 27 CONFIDENTIAL
  28. 28. Solar Technologies – CPV; State of Market CPV Module and Tracker CPV Module Erection• Highly efficient solar cells with refractive lenses form series of modules that aremounted on a dual-axis tracker•0• Individual module capacity on the order of a few hundred kW• A novel technology with roughly 15 MW of installed capacity 28 CONFIDENTIAL
  29. 29. Solar Technologies – CPV • CPV modules use “multi-junction” solar cells to capture a broader range of light radiation • Refractive lenses to concentrate radiation onto the cells 29 CONFIDENTIAL
  30. 30. Summary of Technology Components CSP Si PV Thin-Film PV CPV Raw Silicon Semi-Cond. Material - CdTe, CIGS Gallium Arsenide Ingots and Wafers Glass Multi-Junc. Cells Encapsulants (e.g. EVA) Frames Glass Backsheets (e.g. TPT) Modules Lenses Ribbon (tin, copper) Modules ModulesUp-stream Silicon Sealants Glass Cells Frames Modules Mirrors Steel /Alum. Steel /Alum. Steel /Alum. Tubes/Receivers Inverters Inverters Inverters Heat Transfer Fluids Tracking Sys. Tracking Sys. Tracking Sys. Steel - load bearing; mirror frame Cabling Cabling Cabling Solar Field Concrete Transformers Transformers Transformers Cabling Pumps and Valves Fabricated Piping Controls and Sensors Steam Turbine/Generator Set Heat Exchangers Pumps and ValvesPower Block Fabricated Piping Transformers Storage Medium (salts) Heat Storage Tanks 30 CONFIDENTIAL
  31. 31. Indicative Component Requirements for Solar Parks – Steel• A100 MW CSP Plant can require anywhere between 9,000 and 26,000 tons of steel – The wide variance is meant to account for CSP plants with and without thermal storage. – Typically mild carbon, hot-rolled and flat-plate steel – Common specifications include ASTM A992, ASTM A36, S 275 JR, S 355 JR, H- 340, ASTM A 16 Gr. 75 CSP Steel Tonnes MW Min Max Average 100 9,000 26,000 17,500 500 45,000 130,000 87,500 1000 90,000 260,000 175,000 3000 270,000 780,000 525,000 5000 450,000 1,300,000 875,000 31 CONFIDENTIAL
  32. 32. Indicative Component Requirements for Solar Parks – Glass• A100 MW CSP Plant can require between about 445,000 and 1.2 million square meters of glass for its mirrors • Range again attributable to thermal storage • Parabolic trough plants require curved mirrors between 2 and 3 square meters apiece, while other technologies require flat mirrors between 1 and 7 square meters apiece • Number of mirrors per heliostat or mirror-line varies widely by technology • The glass is usually 3-4 mm thick and must be low-iron tempered glass with 92- 93% reflectivity • Some technologies are experimenting with reflective films rather than glass 2 2Parabolic Volume (m ) Tower (Flat) Volume (m ) MW Min Max Average MW Min Max Average 100 445,100 1,188,000 816,550 100 490,600 1,870,600 1,180,600 500 4,450,900 11,880,300 8,165,600 500 4,905,900 18,705,900 11,805,900 1000 8,901,800 23,760,700 16,331,250 1000 9,811,800 37,411,800 23,611,800 3000 13,352,700 35,641,000 24,496,850 3000 14,717,700 56,117,600 35,417,650 5000 22,255,000 59,400,000 40,827,500 5000 24,530,000 93,530,000 59,030,000 32 CONFIDENTIAL
  33. 33. Indicative Component Requirements – PV Manufacturing Inputs • The table below offers indicative figures of materials requirements for a module assembly unit • The levels shown represent general averages based on multiple data points • International suppliers often suggest an annual yield (or demand) of ~30 MW/year is required to justify investment in local module assembly • Economies of scale for up-stream cell manufacturing are achieved at much larger yields (perhaps 1 GW/year) 2Capacity Glass (tons) Alum (tons) Encapsulant (m2) Backsheets (m ) Ribbon (units) Sealant (tons) 30 1,710 48 427,500 213,750 1,900 29 100 5,700 158 1,425,000 712,500 6,333 95 500 28,500 792 7,125,000 3,562,500 31,667 475 1000 57,000 1,583 14,250,000 7,125,000 63,333 950 2500 142,500 3,958 35,625,000 17,812,500 158,333 2,375 5000 285,000 7,917 71,250,000 35,625,000 316,667 4,750 33 CONFIDENTIAL
  34. 34. Job Creation Potential• While figures vary based on technology mix and pace of build, CCI’s base case assumes an average of ~12,000 construction jobs could be created over 8 years during construction of a 5,000 MW Park• 3,000 ongoing O&M jobs upon completion of 5,000 MW• These estimates do not include indirect jobs that would be created in the manufacturing and services sector as a result of the project 34 CONFIDENTIAL
  35. 35. Job Creation Potential• Construction labor force could be re-employed by other Solar Parks upon completion of the firstAnnual Construction Jobs Created 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AveragePV/CPV Capacity Added by EOY (MW) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200CSP Capacity Added by EOY (MW) - 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400PV/CPV Construction Jobs 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776 1,776CSP Construction Jobs 5,012 10,024 10,024 10,024 10,024 10,024 10,024 10,024 5,012 8,910Park Transmission Jobs 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 430 143 398Park Infrastructure Jobs 550 - - - - - - - - 61Regional Transmission Upgrade Jobs 1,122 689 1,411 2,006 1,376 1,376 1,108 1,108 - 1,133Total Average Direct Jobs 12,278O&M Jobs Created 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CumulativePV/CPV O&M Jobs - New - 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146 146CSP O&M Jobs - New - - 212 212 212 212 212 212 212 212PV/CPV O&M Jobs - Cumulative - 146 292 438 584 730 876 1,022 1,168 1,314 1,314CSP O&M - Cumulative - - 212 424 636 848 1,060 1,272 1,484 1,696 1,696Total O&M Jobs Created 3,010*Scenario above based on solar company estimates for plants built in the U.S. and E.U., adjusted for local labor productivity (2.10 : 1.00 versus U.S.Reference); infrastructure related job estimates based on CCI modeling of inputs from ESKOM and Trans-Africa Projects. 35 CONFIDENTIAL
  36. 36. Next Steps• DOE and DTI would like to initiate a dialog with local industry in a dialog about the potential opportunities presented by the establishment of a Solar Park in the Northern Cape• DOE and DTI hope to learn how local industry might respond to the demand for products and services• DOE and DTI would like to invite local industry representatives to attend an upcoming conference introducing the Solar Park to international developers, investors and policymakers• This conference could include some forum designed to promote networking and discussion between international developers, component manufacturers, EPCs and local industry 36 CONFIDENTIAL

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