Turkey economic reportOctober 2012Regional commentary Upcoming events:Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.8% on the quarter in Q2, the fastest pace of Turkeyexpansion since early 2011. However, this strength was entirely driven by surgingexports (boosted by extraordinary sales to Iran) while both consumer spending and 8 November 2012investment actually fell on the quarter. Development and opportunities inThe combination of faltering domestic demand, the weakness of the global economy the Turkish marketand the expectation that inflation would fall significantly during H2 has prompted the This seminar organised by White & Casecentral bank to loosen monetary conditions significantly over the last few months. This will cover current hot topics impactingeasing, together with a still fairly healthy labour market, may lead to a modest upturn the Turkish market. It will include an overview of the key changes to thein consumer spending and offer some support to investment. But at the same time, Turkish Commercial Code and the newgrowth in exports is set to moderate. Overall, GDP is expected to rise modestly in H2 capital markets law and its impact onbut more significantly through 2013 as global trade starts to pick up again, resulting in initial public offerings, project financinggrowth of 2.7% in 2012 as a whole and 4.2% next year. opportunities in the infrastructure industry and managing risk issues.But there remain serious threats to these reassuring forecasts. First, if the Eurozonewere to break up, Turkey would be hit very hard by the resulting financial turmoil. 7 December 2012Second, inflation could be more ‘sticky’ than the central bank assumes, which might Turkey Market Advisory Groupundermine policy credibility and push the exchange rate lower, adding to inflationary meetingpressure and the likelihood of a policy reversal. In addition, the rapid growth of bank Members of the Group are invited tocredit over the last five years may be a source of instability in the future. the next meeting. Find out more at www.thecityuk.comOn TheCityUK members’ websiteMembers can log-in at www.thecityuk.com to access our latestdocumentation, including:Government Response to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs CommitteeReport of Session 2010-12This note sets out the Government’s Response to the House of Commons Foreign AffairsCommittee Report of Session 2010-12, initiated by TheCityUK.TheCityUK’s evidence to the Foreign Affairs Committee - ‘UK-Turkey relations andTurkey’s regional role’This note sets out views on behalf of TheCityUK in the form of evidence submitted to theForeign Affairs Committee concerning UK-Turkey relations and Turkey’s regional role.ContactTo find out more about the opportunities to engage with the Turkey Group please contact:Senior Manager: Relationship Director: In association with:Jim Begbie Richard AdlerT: 020 7776 8994 T: 020 7776 8978M: 07764 170056 M: 07799 746810E: firstname.lastname@example.org E: email@example.comVisit www.thecityuk.com for more information on TheCityUK and all of our Working Groups.