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This collaborative research project between Global Pulse (www.unglobalpulse.org), and the Complex Systems Institute of Paris Ile-de-France & IFRIS analyzed thousands of news items related to food ...

This collaborative research project between Global Pulse (www.unglobalpulse.org), and the Complex Systems Institute of Paris Ile-de-France & IFRIS analyzed thousands of news items related to food security issues in French language press. http://bit.ly/v5Pj8G

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GlobalPulse_ISC-PIF_IFRIS_MethodsPaper2011 GlobalPulse_ISC-PIF_IFRIS_MethodsPaper2011 Document Transcript

  • 177 affaires humanitaires & OCHA 13.12.2011 Ituri & assistance humanitaire 255 Lesotho & Swaziland 205 105 Lesotho & Mozambique Ituri & police 154 affaires humanitaires & coordination des affaires humanitaires 260 Nairobi & personnes déplacées Lesotho & Zimbabwe Nepad & produit intérieur brut 197 145 Kabila & militaires 170 développement humain & assainissement Liban & bombardements 188 virus H5N1 & H5N1 Nord Kivu & militairesnts Affaires étrangères & terrorisme 153 135 besoin daide alimentaire & crise économique effet de serre & température violence & militaires 133 CO2 & réchauffement climatique 197 104 effet de serre & gaz effet de serre & température 112 245 armée & militaires 191 viande & tomate haricot & arachide 126 vaches & boeufs 106 vitamine & fromage 125 libéralisation & secteur agricole politique agricole & CEDEAO 180 219 décès & infantile 187 diarrhée & UNICEF 136 production céréalière & crise économique Nigériens & criquets pèlerins hygiène & infection 204 maladies diarrhéiques & infection Ecosse & 255 poudre & minéraux FIDA & Annan 101 191 protéines & boissons organismes génétiquement modifiés & pesticides 107 308 bois & canne 248 organismes génétiquement modifiés & engrais FIDA & Jacques Diou 271 tuberculose & infection 373 canne & désertification 357 166 santé publique & allaitement Bissau & Guinée-Bissau 377 forêts & Guinée & Kolda marchés financiers & taux dintérêt 121 Banque centrale & marchés financiers 321 466 Banqu récession & Fmi 302 Tchad & CEN-SAD 122 Guinée & Tchad 210 Suède & Allemagne 142 CEN-SAD & somm UA & Union Africaine Suède & Allemagne 136 174 Suède & Espagne 107 Allemagne & présidence française 264 Sarkozy & G8 201 prix des denrées a flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires & flambée des prix des 381 production déthanol & biocarburants subventions agricoles & Doha 128 Pasca 336 Omc & cycle de Doha Goana & Abdoulaye Wade 277 prix du pain & importations de céréales 127 Goana & millions de tonnes de manioc 167 Gbagbo & Laurent Gbagbo cours internationaux & prix du pain Gba 267 millions de tonnes de manioc & tonnes de manioc & G Goana prix du baril de pétrole & fret 163 251 Mont Québec & LEAD Québec & Montréal 117 134 Québec & LEAD 108 lé vaches & banane 138 vaches & plantes 148 Nepad & maîtrise de leau 162 développement rural & maîtrise de leau 170 CEEAC ministère de lAgriculture & Congolais 215 opérateurs économiques & milieu rural 184 transporteu Streams of Media Issues Yokohama & Méditerranée Yokohama & TICAD 114 Monitoring World Food Security
  • pulseweb http://pulseweb.veilledynamique.com 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jacques Diouf & nombre de personnes sous-alimentées 310 personnes sous-alimentées & Jacques Diouf 303 cheptel & Vienne Vienne & Autriche 136 166 tomate & légumes 177 virus H5N1 & H5N1 Nepad & Jacques Diouf 216 affaires humanitaires & OCHA Ituri & assistance humanitaire 255 Lesotho & Swaziland 205 105 Jacques Diouf & développement rural 143 populations civiles & MONUC 168 Lesotho & Mozambique Ituri & police 154 affaires humanitaires & coordination des affaires humanitaires 260 Nairobi & personnes déplacées Lesotho & Zimbabwe miliciens & rébellion virus H5N1 & H5N1 Nepad & produit intérieur brut 197 miliciens & rébellion 174 145 192 Kabila & militaires HCR & Nations Unies pour lenfance 170 302 développement humain & assainissement Liban & bombardements 188 situation humanitaire & Nations Unies pour lenfance 176 virus H5N1 & H5N1 Nord Kivu & militaires Israël & bombardements Affaires étrangères & terrorisme 153 135 besoin daide alimentaire & crise économique Angleterre & attentats Israël & attentats effet de serre & température violence & militaires 133 CO2 & réchauffement climatique 197 104 effet de serre & gaz effet de serre & température 112 245organismes génétiquement modifiés & biotechnologie 137 armée & militaires 191 organismes génétiquement modifiés & révolution verte viande & tomate 122 haricot & arachide 126 environnementaux & pollution pesticides & plantes Organisation mon 134 106 vaches & boeufs vitamine & fromage décès & infection 106 141 125 libéralisation & secteur agricole politique agricole & CEDEAO 180 219 décès & infantile 187 pâturages & déficit céréalier 238 diarrhée & UNICEF IRIN & prix des céréales 136 Mexique & Corée du Sud 101 invasion & pays sahéliens 265 production céréalière & crise économique 123 forêts & Corée du Sud Nigériens & criquets pèlerins hygiène & infection 215 204 maladies diarrhéiques & infection Ecosse & dirigeants du G8 moustiquaires & allaitement infection & accouchement 139 255 310 376 poudre & minéraux FIDA & Annan 101 Gleneagles & promesses daide 191 135 protéines & boissons organismes génétiquement modifiés & pesticides 107 308 bois & canne nutritionniste & allaitement 248 192 organismes génétiquement modifiés & engrais FIDA & Jacques Diouf 271 sucre & légumes tuberculose & infection 373 canne & désertification 131 357 166 viande & légumes 165 santé publique & allaitement Bissau & Guinée-Bissau FID 377 forêts & désertification 146 tremblement de terre & séisme tremblement de terre & séisme Guinée & Kolda 190 marchés financiers & taux dintérêt 181 121 Banque centrale & marchés financiers 321 466 Banque centrale & BM marché mondial & Omc récession & Fmi 272 184 302 Tchad & CEN-SAD 122 Guinée & Tchad 210 Omc & produits agricoles Suède & Allemagne 158 142 CEN-SAD & sommet de lUnion africaine Omc & coton 113 186 UA & Union Africaine pâturages & tonnes de vivres Suède & Allemagne 136 174 343 Suède & Espagne 107 Pascal Lamy & Omc Allemagne & présidence française 194 aide alimentaire durgence & Afrique australe 264 240 Namibie & Lesotho Sarkozy & G8 201 prix des denrées alimentaires & prix des denrées Djibouti & Afrique australe 322 186 flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires & flambée des prix des denrées affaires humani 381 13 production déthanol & biocarburants subventions agricoles & Doha 128 Pascal Lamy & Genève 336 275 Omc & cycle de Doha Goana & Abdoulaye Wade dette & G8 dette & G8 277 Somalie & OCHA Goana & sorgh 217 142 230 176 prix du pain & importations de céréales 127 hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires & hau Goana & millions de tonnes de manioc 309 167 Gbagbo & Laurent Gbagbo cours internationaux & prix du pain Gbagbo & Laurent Gbagbo Communauté économique & Communauté économique des Etats dAfrique 182 267 167 millions de tonnes de manioc & tonnes de manioc Goana & Grande offensive agricole prix du baril de pétrole & fret 163 162 251 CEDEAO & Bissau poudre & po Montréal & OTTAWA armée & réb Québec & LEAD Québec & Montréal 175 117 134 Québec & LEAD 108 légumes & Maurice 130 vaches & banane 138 vaches & plantes 148 Nepad & maîtrise de leau 162 développement rural & maîtrise de leau 170 CEEAC & Mob CEEAC & Mobutu Nzanga 165 181 ministère de lAgriculture & Congolais 215 opérateurs économiques & milieu rural 184 transporteurs & produits pétroliers 213 produits pétroliers & baril 192 Yokohama & Méditerranée Yokohama & TICAD 114
  • is platform is a monitoring system for large corpora of press articles. It has been applied to a French-speaking corpus dealing essentially with food security. While the platform can be used as a simple browser, it also provides a series of analytical tools: by exploiting semantic dynamics, it is able to identify main me- dia issues on a given topic. e speci c instance of the platform which is being presented here depicts both the evolution of these food security-related issues in the 2000s and their geographic features on a global map. 2009 2010 2011 protéines & poisson 105 vaches & protéines protéines & sorgho 164 133 CILSS & désertification 124 intrants & Ziguinchor 226 CILSS & l’Uemoa agriculture africaine & révolution verte 278 chômage & Fmi investisseurs étrangers & millions dhectares de terres 120 Espagne & Mexique 200 coup dEtat & Bissau Royaume-Uni & Mexique 122 engrais & révolution verte 185 188 Indonésie & Corée du Sud 118 crise financière internationale & l’Uemoa Arabie saoudite & Mexique 119 198 ministre de lEconomie & prix du carburant vaccination & paludisme santé publique & allaitement 194 191 inflation & finances publiques diarrhée & infection 154 275 ministre des Finances & Banque centrale ministre des Finances & Tunisie 119 162 G20 & taux de croissance infection & accouchement 222 infection & paludisme 227 243 crise financière internationale & Fmi 209 effet de serre & carbone hectares de terres & superficie diarrhée & infection G20 & développement en Afrique 253 effet de serre & environnementaux 155 diarrhée & infection 146 hôpital & infection diarrhée & infection 253 178 Etats africains & UA 136 206 Organisation mondiale de la Santé & diarrhéendiale de la Santé & hygiène campagne agricole & cheptel 170 196 115 effet de serre & forêts Niamey & cheptel tomate & manioc 112 185 enfants souffrant de malnutrition & vitamine produits laitiers & poisson 279 protéines & végétaux Zimbabwe & taux de mortalité infantile viande & pomme de terre stocks mondiaux & prix de lénergie 109 137 protéines & sel 130 denrées de premières nécessités & cours mondiaux 146 effet de serre & gaz 297 poudre & compléments alimentaires 113 179 Niamey & Nigériens effet de serre & température 218 159 prix des aliments & demande mondiale 201 crise humanitaire & Valerie Amos terres cultivables & arbres effet de serre & carbone 227 millions de Nigériens & Nigériens 278 Libéria & Abidjan forêts & végétaux 219 gaz & arbres 144 réfugiés & HCR 108 embargo & stocks mondiaux 209 Niamey & millions de Nigériens situation humanitaire & personnes déplacées 130 191 149 embargo & exportateur mondial 116 croissance mondiale & présidence françaiseDA & Jacques Diouf 264 dette & volatilité des prix G20 agricole & volatilité des prix agriculteurs africains & Fonds international de développement agricole 222 210 296 Indonésie & Corée du Sud Jacques Diouf & faim chronique 184 Japon & Corée du Sud 267 127 armes & Kadhafi Aquila & Iran 124 177 Sarkozy & G20 cycle de Doha & Doha 223 armes & Kadhafi 207 affaires humanitaires & malnutrition sévère 137 211 musulmans & Ben Ali 129 prisonniers & Libyens G20 & Doha 113 181 réponse humanitaire & affaires humanitaires Directeur général de la FAO & Jacques Diouf 203 602 Moubarak & Ben Ali Goana & Grande offensive agricole 128 142 campagne agricole & Goana Université Cheikh Anta Diop & président Wade 167 personnes déplacées & travailleurs humanitaires 122 181 crise humanitaire & OCHA 154 Wade & Abdoulaye Wade OCHA & personnes déplacées 142 147 pâturages & sécheresse 172 campagne agricole & Goanaitaires & OCHA 19237 campagne agricole & Goana 239 situation humanitaire & OCHA 167 MONUC & personnes déplacées campagne agricole & Goana 187 104 situation humanitaire & Nord Kivuho 194usse des prix des denrées civils & rébellion Directeur général de la FAO & Jacques Diouf personnes sous-alimentées & nombre de personnes sous-alimentées personnes sous-alimentées & nombre de personnes sous-alimentées 132 283 160 259 personnes sous-alimentées & Jacques Diouf 370 droits de lHomme & civils Iran & prisonniers 207 159oudre de lait armée & conflit 253 militaires & prisonniers Israël & prisonniers 144 172bellion production laitière & poudre de lait 127 investissement agricole & CEDEAO 163 CEDEAO & UA 183 production vivrière & séisme Guinée & Bissau 201 120 production vivrière & séisme 180 Gbagbo & Bissau 102butu Nzanga5 milliards de francs CFA & Kaolack 145 Kaolack & Kolda is methods white paper arose from an on-going series of collaborative research projects conducted by the United Nations Global Pulse in 2011. Global Pulse is an innovation initiative of the Executive O ce of the UN Secretary- General, which seeks to harness the opportunities in digital data to strengthen evidence-based decision-making. is research was designed to better understand where digital data can contribute to global development. is project was conducted in collaboration with the Complex Systems Institute of Paris Ile-de-France (ISC-PIF) and the Institute For Research, Innovation and Society (IFRIS). For more information on this project or the other projects in this series, please visit: http://www.unglobalpulse.org/research
  • Methodology Press corpus and lexical retrieval A press article corpus made up of around 20,000 articles published between 2004 and 2011 has been formed on the basis of a Factiva request. Textual content has been processed through lexical retrieval: each article has been turned into a list of terms. We suppressed terms which were too generic, and homogenized others, for instance by developing acronyms into their extended form. e corpus has been reorganized according to this nal list of terms. Once lexical retrieval has been achieved, the corpus has been divided into 20 corpora of 1000 articles – a “period” – which have been processed separately. Creation of clusters e aim of lexical retrieval is to highlight frequent associations between terms. e most frequently associated words form clusters, which we label using the two most central terms of the cluster. Linking clusters: drawing streams Clusters are linked through a stream if they are likely descendants. In this case, “parents” and “children” have terms in common, identi ed by an intersection computation. Some clusters have no parents: in this case, a stream begins. Others have numerous parents: some streams merge into a single cluster. Numerous children may have the same parent: streams fork. Eventually, when a parent has no child, a stream dies. See gure 1 for an illustration of these concepts. stream cluster cluster cluster cluster crise financière internationale & l’Uemoa 119 ministre de lEconomie & prix du carburant ministre des Finances & Banque centraleministre des Finances & Tunisie 119 162 crise financière internationale & Fmi 209 Filiations are determined by an optimization computation: only the most relevant streams are being repre- sented on the interface. As is the case for clusters, stream names are based on frequency and centrality criteria. e number of streams is also determined by an optimization computation and their breadth depends on the size of clusters, which di ers according to the number of relevant articles. Hyper-streams, i.e. groups of same-colored streams, emphasize a thematic similarity between streams. Projection in time and space Clusters and streams are then projected onto a two-dimensional space, with time on the abscissa. It meets the following requirements: clusters belonging to the same stream are similar; at a higher level, two streams be- come visually closer when they share a growing part of common terms. e representation is stylized: relative distances are determined by an optimization computation. Since we retrieve geographical terms, we are also able to associate clusters with spatial information such as regional areas and countries. Note that this provides a spatial map of topics rather than a spatial representation of sources.
  • Scales of analysisThe global scale: three sub-periods in the approach of world food security What kinds of interpretations can be made about each construct: hyper-streams, streams, and clusters? We will present them at a respectively global, medium and localConsidering the relative positions of hyper-streams and their size, we notice that there are three main hyper- scale and show how interactions between scales of analysisstreams: a red one, a pink one and a light-blue one. Others (yellow-, dark-blue-, dark-green-, light-green- are relevant, especially in the case of the 2008 crisis.and purple-colored) are both remote from the core of the map and less cohesive. On these grounds, we canidentify three phases: the blue hyper-stream appears in 2007 and gradually replaces the red one, ending inJune 2008; then the pink hyper-stream, born in 2004, expands dramatically in 2010.thematic domination humanitarian crisis transition financial crisis transition arab spring of media framing 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Hyper-streams gather di erent streams e red hyper-stream focuses on In the light-blue hyper-stream, stress e pink hyper-stream came back to a localdealing with a common topic, but a closer humanitarian crises due to natural is laid on the role of world prices in the approach of the problem, as it focuses onlook at streams is generally needed in order disasters: in 2006, oods led to poor 2008 food crisis (see notably the “increase Maghreb and Mashriq. e birth of a newto make sense of these phases. e rst harvests in Southern Africa, especially in in food prices – undernourished people” hyper-stream suggests that Arab revolutionsand the third sub-periods focus on a local Mozambique and Lesotho where a cyclone stream). As these streams are very close to are not directly connected with the globalscale (famine is caused by an ine cient occurred (see the “Lesotho – Zimbabwe” each other, we can infer that this focus on food crisis. Indeed, the “increase in foodfood production or distribution in a stream); in 2004-2005, locust attacks and world prices is linked with the discourse of prices – undernourished people” streamspeci c place) and a rather humanitarian drought threatened local food production international institutions, namely the G8 stops in December 2010, whereas theconceptualization of the problem (food in Niger, and to a lesser extent in some (see the “Scotland – leaders of G8” stream “weapons – Khadafy” stream begins only ininsecurity arises from political turmoil neighboring countries, such as Mali and about the 2005 G8 in Gleeneagles), the March 2011 and the “Muslims – Mubarak”or natural disasters), whereas the second Burkina Faso (see the “Nigerians – grain World Trade Organization (see the “Doha stream in April 2011. Nevertheless, theperiod features a mainly global framing (the production” stream). Wars and con icts are Round – agricultural subsidies” stream link between the increase in food pricesfood crisis is due to the rise in world staple depicted as another cause of famines: the about the Doha Round and about the and Arab food riots is present inside offood prices) and a more political stance Darfur crisis and the political turmoil in 2009 G8 in L’Aquila), the World Bank and the “Director General of FAO – Jacques(biofuels and speculation are here presented Rwanda and Congo (see the “humanitarian the IMF (see the “central bank – nancial Diouf ” and “world stocks – staple food”as likely causes of the 2008 crisis). situation – UNHCR” stream); but also markets” stream) and at least the FAO (see streams. Another important feature of this the consequences of the Israel-Palestine the “FIDA – African farmers” stream). hyper-stream is the continuity of the “death con ict, both relating to the trade embargo Even if the international stage is prevailing, – infant” stream, which is uninterrupted against Gaza and the 2006 war between African answers to the food crisis are also from 2004 to 2011. is stream deals Israel and Lebanon (see the “need of food present, for instance regional economic with children vulnerability to hunger and aid – economic crisis” stream). A third cooperation (see the “Tchad – CEN- with malnutrition as a factor of worsening group of streams deals with controversies SAD” stream) and national measures (see infections: UNICEF and WHO promote about the role of agricultural innovations the “crop year – GOANA” stream in case breast-feeding as the best way to prevent in development: are GM crops the of Senegal). Note that previous topics do malnutrition since the youngest age. In solution to persisting hunger (see the not disappear: the concern about the role this hyper-stream, land-grabbing appears “CEDEAO – GMO” stream)? Is the so- of GM crops (see the “meat – tomato” as an emergent controversial issue about called “double green revolution” (see the stream dealing with an edible GM cotton), global agriculture in the “foreign investors “human development – Nepad” stream) and humanitarian crises (see for instance – United Kingdom” stream. Two topics a better alternative given the context of the “OCHA – drought” stream about are still represented: the global governance, climate change – as demonstrated by the Somalia); yet they are less central than as far as the so-called agricultural G20 is Stern Report in October 2006 and the they were in the red hyper-stream. ey concerned; and the humanitarian focus, 4th Report of IPCC in February 2007 also address new problems, respectively the rst in the “humanitarian situation – – and proliferation of environmental role of biofuels in rising staple food prices UNHCR” stream about Libya & Ivory problems, for instance the damage caused (see the “wood – cane” stream) in the case Coast, and second in the “Niamey – to ecosystems (see the “greenhouse e ect – of controversies, and food riots (see the millions of Nigerians” stream about the environmental” stream)? “CEEAC – Mobutu Tzanga” stream). 2010 Nigerian drought.
  • Case study the 2008 world food 2009 crisis 2 at the junction of three hyper-streams e peak in food prices, which gave rise to hunger riots in many developing countries between 2007 and 2008, induced a larger production of related media articles. is phenomenon is visible through the size of the corresponding clusters. At the global scale, we may rst notice the continuity of the “death-infant” tomate & légumes 177 stream (belonging to the pink hyper-stream) during the crisis. Second, the climate issue has been reframed during the crisis: the “climate change” stream (belonging to the red hyper-stream) stops in April 2008, whereas a “greenhouse e ect” stream (belonging the pink hyper-stream) begins in September 2008. ird, Nairobi & personnes déplacées 197 since April 2008 three streams devoted to international and global governance of hunger have appeared. coup dEtat & Bissau 122 crise financière internationale & l’Uemoa 119 ministre de lEconomie & prix du carburant Nord Kivu & militaires 153 inflation & finances publiques 154 ministre des Finances & Banque centrale ministre des Finances & Tunisie 119 162 crise financière internationale & Fmi 209 violence & militaires 197 effet de serre & température 245 first stream climate armée & militaires diarrhée & infection 191 diarrhée & infection 253 hôpital & infection 178 136 Organisation mondiale de la Santé & diarrhée Organisation mondiale de la Santé & hygiène 170 196 vitamine & fromage décès & infection 141 125 enfants souffrant de malnutrition & vitamine stream health 279 décès & infantile 187 protéines & végétaux 109 protéines & sel diarrhée & UNICEF 146 136 Mexique & Corée du Sud poudre & compléments alimentaires 265 179 hygiène & infection forêts & Corée du Sud 215 second stream climate 204 terres cultivables & arbres effet de serre & carbone Ecosse & dirigeants du G8 227 stream FAO & FIDA 139 FIDA & Annan Gleneagles & promesses daide forêts & végétaux 191 gaz & arbres 144 135 organismes génétiquement modifiés & pesticides 108 308 bois & canne 248 FIDA & Jacques Diouf 271 canne & désertification 166 Bissau & Guinée-Bissau FIDA & Jacques Diouf forêts & désertification agriculteurs africains & Fonds international de développement agricole 222 146 Indonésie & Corée du Sud marchés financiers & taux dintérêt Banque centrale & marchés financiers 184 321 466 Aquila & Iran 177 Banque centrale & BM stream World Bank & IMF cycle de Doha & Doha 272 récession & Fmi 207 302 Tchad & CEN-SAD 122 Guinée & Tchad 210 G20 & Doha 181 CEN-SAD & sommet de lUnion africaine 113 UA & Union Africaine 136 campagne agricole & Goana Suède & Espagne 167 personnes déplacées & travailleurs humanitaires 107 181 Pascal Lamy & Omc crise humanitaire & OCHA Allemagne & présidence française 194 154 264 OCHA & personnes déplacées stream G8 & WTO 147 pâturages & sécheresse Sarkozy & G8 172 201 prix des denrées alimentaires & prix des denrées 322 campagne agricole & Goana flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires & flambée des prix des denrées affaires humanitaires & OCHA 192 381 137 subventions agricoles & Doha Pascal Lamy & Genève campagne agricole & Goana 336 situation humanit 275 239 167 campagne agricole & Goana 104 Omc & cycle de Doha Goana & Abdoulaye Wade 277 Goana & sorgho Somalie & OCHA 176 142 hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires & hausse des prix des denrées Goana & millions de tonnes de manioc 309 167 Gbagbo & Laurent Gbagbo Directeur général de la FAO & Jacques Diouf personnes sous-alimentées & nombre de personnes sous-alimentées personnes sous-alimentées & nombre de personnes sous-alimentéesZoom on the 2008 world food crisis 283 160 259 personnes sous-alimentées & Jacques Diou e World Bank and FAO streams are short, whereas the WTO & G8 stream is quite long: media coverage cours internationaux & prix du pain Gbagbo & Laurent Gbagbo 370 182considering hyper-streams 267 millions de tonnes de manioc & tonnes de manioc seems to focus on political measures taken by these former actors in spring 20081. Considering the climate Goana & Grande offensive agricole prix du baril de pétrole & fret 163 162 251 issue, the extinction of stream “CO2 & climate change” might be explained by the presence of biofuels is- poudre & poudre de lait armée & conflit 253 militaires & prisonniers Israël & prisonniers 144 Montréal & OTTAWA sue, as the increase in food prices has stressed the competition between food vs. nonfood production. If so, 172 armée & rébellion 1. e United Nations Organization (UNO) Québec & Montréal Coordi- Québec & LEAD 117 Québec & LEAD created a 134 175 production laitière & poudre de lait nation Team of the UN System High Level Task Force on the 108 127 investissement agricole & CEDEAO the threat on food security may have become more present than the question of climate change in among 163 Global Food Security Crisis in April 2008; the World Bank set légumes & Maurice up in May 2008 the Global Food Crisis Response Program; 130 the FAO organized a High-Level Conferencevaches &World Food on banane articles dealing with biofuels. is reframing may perhaps result from the o cial interpretation of the food CEDEAO & UA 183 Security in June 2008. 138 crisis by the FAO2 or from a so-called informal study of the Wolrd Bank asserting the role of the biofuels in Guinée & Bissau vaches & plantes 120 pr 148 2. Declaration of the High-Level Conference on World Food Gbagbo & Bissau Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy, développement rural & maîtrise de leau 170 the increase of staple food prices3; it could also have been encouraged by the new position of the EU on this 102 Roma, 3-5 June 2008. & Mobutu Nzanga CEEAC & Mobutu Nzanga topic at that time4. CEEAC 165 http://www.fao.org/foodclimate/conference/doclist/fr/ ministère de lAgriculture & Congolais 181 215 opérateurs économiques & milieu rural 3. Source : http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/ 184 milliards de francs CFA & Kaolack jul/03/biofuels.renewableenergy Streams as revealers of media issues in a competitive media space 145 Kaolack & Kolda 4. e EU backtracked on its so-called « 20-20-20 » climate transporteurs & produits pétroliers 213 produits pétroliers & baril change and energy plan adopted in 2007. is action plan 192 aimed at ensuring a variety of energy-related achievements by Yokohama & Méditerranée 2020, including the attainment of a 10% share of biofuels in Yokohama & TICAD 114 Streams have four main meaningful features: their slope, their length, their relative distance to other streams energy consumption in transportation. On the 22nd of April, 2008 some representatives of the European Parliament asked and their structure in terms of fusions and forks. Each stream corresponds to a speci c media issue on food for a moratorium on this decision in the context of world food crisis. security, since it dynamically connects clusters which share common terms. With “media issue” we denote a discourse proposing elements of conceptualization for a given problem (here for food security) whose use is relatively robust throughout the period.
  • 198 G20 & taux de croissance infection & accouchement 222 infection & paludisme 227 243 Slope of a stream Vertical trends are meaningful: streams are vertically organized according to their similarity and, if a stream diarrhée & infection goes up or down, its semantic composition is likely to vary. In other words, G20 & développement en Afrique 253 horizontal streams tend to be 155 semantically homogeneous. To grab the slope of streams, we look at clusters: the growth rate of the stream “world stocks – staple food” (beginning in September 2010) is for instance probably due to an increase in Etats africains & UA 206 generalization. Indeed, this stream begins with a cluster devoted to the consequences of Russian embargo on Stream “world stock-staple food” wheat prices and then deals with the general rise in staple food prices giving rise to the threat of new food (September 2010) riots. effet de serre & forêts tomate & manioc 112 produits laitiers & poisson viande & pomme de terre 130 effet de serre & gaz 113 Niamey & Nigérienseffet de serre & température 218 159 millions de Nigériens & Nigériens 278 embargo & stocks mondiaux Niamey & millions de Nigériens 130 149 Length of a stream embargo & exportateur mondial 116 e birth of a stream signals the appearance of a new media issue, i.e. a new frame of the food security prob- lem. is birth does not necessarily imply that the corresponding topic had been entirely absent before (nor russian embargo food price rises consequences = new riots ? that it entirely disappears after the stream vanishes), it simply indicates that its presence is suddenly growing and becoming more consistent. A particularly interesting con guration occurs when an issue is enrolling Jacques Diouf & faim chronique others or when Corée du Sud because some other issues become dominant. Japon & it disappears 267 127 An intermediate case is that of a stream which disappears for a moment and reappears later, under a distinct Sarkozy & G20 form. e evolution of the trade issue is a particularly revealing example. It roughly corresponds to the link 223 affaires humanitaires & malnutrition sévère between food security and inequalities within the agricultural world trade system exempli ed by the failure 211 of the Doha Round in July 2008: the imbalance between protectionism in the agro-exporter North and the demand for opening markets in the South has been denounced by many developing countries which blocked negotiations to protect their farmers, notably India and China opposed to the USA. is issue rst appeared in December 2004, then became reframed in June 2008 after the food riots, and eventually has been recast réponse humanitaire & affaires humanitaires 203 again in September 2010, when Russian wild res led to protectionist measures on wheat. Another interesting Goana & Grande offensive agricole example is the case 142 Niger: this country appears in two streams, rst in 2004 and then in 2010, while most of African countries are not the focus of a speci c stream. Why? e speci city of Nigerian famines probably Université Cheikh Anta Diop & président Wade relies on their causes, stemming from natural disasters rather than political turmoil: in 2004, this country 122 underwent a locust attack followed by a severe drought; in September 2009 a new drought occurred, ad- 5. source: http://www.emdat.be/ ditionally worsened by oods5. Wade & Abdoulaye Wade 142 MONUC & personnes déplacées 187
  • Relative distance between streams A third indication of the importance of an issue is the relative distance between streams. Some streams are indeed signi cantly close to each other – they may even overlap, as is the case during the 2008 food crisis. When an issue becomes more present, it may either attract or push away other streams, depending on the a priori similarity: for instance, humanitarian problems are relatively remote from the core of the blue hyper- stream, which is occupied by economic and political topics. Fusions and Forks inside of a stream Lastly, merging and forking processes underscore speci c relationships between sub-streams (or branch- es) inside a stream. For instance, in the case of stream “death – infant”, the sub-stream devoted to nutritional determinants of hunger, especially worrying in the case of children (the so-called “malnutrition” branch) and the one dealing with interactions between hunger and diseases (the so-called “diseases” branch) converge Two sub-streams in March 2006. is fusion can be understood by considering the growing concern about the in uence of of the stream “death – infant”merging in the cluster “nutritionist & feeding” nutrition on health in poorer countries, because of the interactions between hunger and infections, but also in March 2006 in richer countries, especially with respect to cancer and obesity prevention. branch “diseases” cluster “nutritionist & feeding” moustiquaires & allaitement infection & accouchement 310 376 poud protéines & boissons 107 nutritionniste & allaitement 192 sucre & légumes tuberculose & infe 131 357 viande & légumes 165 santé publique & allaitement 377 branch “malnutrition”
  • Micro-scale: clusters and press articles e micro-scale analysis is useful for checking hypotheses previously formulated at the macro and mediumscales. For instance in the case of the 2008 food crisis, the examination of articles may con rm or jeopard-ize the conception that biofuels are being framed in a di erent way before and after the food price increaseand the recognition by international institutions of the severity of the crisis. Indeed, if biofuels are underharsh criticism after these events, warnings about their in uence on food security are already expressed in thestream “greenhouse e ect – environmental”, such that the transition is probably more gradual. For instance,we nd in this stream both pro-biofuels [“Biofuels, the ideal guilty party” and “Second generation could save Extract from the user interface showingbiofuels”] and anti-biofuels [“Crazy race for ethanol” and “Biofuels: eat or drive, do we have to choose?”] content of stream “greenhouse effect –arguments. environmental” (April 2008)In the stream devoted to climate change following the global crisis (“greenhouse e ect – South Korea”), re-sults are much more homogeneous. In the rst and fourth clusters of this stream, we nd mainly articles verysuspicious of the growing production of biofuels: “Biofuels: an ecologic alternative both not very e cient andcostly” “Biofuels: results of public investments are not satisfactory, said the OECD” and “Maurice Island inthe race for biofuels” for instance. is example shows that interactions between macro and medium scales,which provide stimulating working hypotheses, and examination of the data available at the micro scale, cane ciently prevent misinterpretations.
  • byCointet, Jean-Phillipe labs and companies INRA SENS Cornilleau, Lise ESIEE Villard, Lionel institutes FORMISM IFRIS Duong, Tam Kien AGUIDEL ISC-PIF Mogoutov, Andreï EHESS CAMS Roth, Camille X CREA Chavalarias, David Savy, Thierry