The title of 2013 Human Development Report is the Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World. The report looks at the evolving geopolitics of our times, examining emerging issues and trends and alsothe new actors which are shaping the development landscape with:Developing nations driving economic growthLifting hundreds of millions of people from povertyPropelling billions more into a new global middle classThe report argues that the striking transformation of a large number of developing countries into dynamic major economies with growing political influence is having a significant impact on human development progresswhich is an importantopportunity for still greater human progress for the world as a whole.
With living standards rising in much of the South, the proportion of people living in extreme incomepoverty worldwide plunged from 43 percent in 1990 to 22 percent in 2008, including more than 500million people lifted from poverty in China alone. As a result, the world has already achieved the mainpoverty eradication target of the Millennium Development Goals, which called for the share of peopleliving on less than US$1.25 a day to be cut by half from 1990 to 2015.
The South is increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Mobile phones with Internet links are nowfound in most households in Asia and Latin America, and in much of Africa– and most of thoseaffordable smart phones are produced by South-based companies. Brazil, China, India, Indonesia andMexico now have more daily social media traffic than any country except the United States.
The South’sgrowing global interconnections are personal as well virtual: migration between developing countriesrecently surpassed net migration from South to North.
Theworld is witnessing an epochal “global rebalancing.” Therise of the South reversesthehugeshiftthatsawEuropeand North Americaeclipsethe rest of theworld, beginningwiththeindustrialrevolution, throughthecolonialeratothetwoWorldWars in the 20th century. Nowanothertectonicshift has put developingcountries on an upwardcurve. TheReportpredictsthattheso-called “Rise of the South” shouldcontinueandcouldevenaccelerate as the 21st centuryunfolds. Accordingtotheprojections in theReport, by 2050, Brazil, ChinaandIndiawilltogetheraccountfor 40 % of global output far surpassingtheprojectedcombinedproduction of today’sGroup of Seven bloc. (Germany, France, Italy, UK, US, CanadaandJapan)
Countries across the South areextending trade, technology and policy ties throughout the North, while the North islooking South for new partnerships that can promote global growth and development.Developing countries nearly doubled their share of world merchandise trade from 25 percent to 47percent between 1980 and 2010, the Report notes. Trade within the South was the biggest factor in thatexpansion, climbing from less than 10 percent to more than 25 percent of all world trade in the past 30years, while trade between developed countries fell from 46 percent to less than 30 percent. Tradebetween countries in the South will overtake that between developed nations, the Report projects.Increasing openness to trade correlates with rising human development achievement in most developingcountries.
The report notes that this phenomenon goes well beyond the so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the 2013 report stresses, including Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa. The report shows more than 40 developing countries, including Turkey, have made greater human development gains in recent decades than would have been predicted. These achievements are largely due to sustained investment in education, health care and social programmes, open engagement with an increasingly interconnected worldThe report notes that the overall trend globally is toward continual human development improvement. UNDP’s Human Development Report includes “Human Development Index”, (HDI) which includes social indicators (for example, health and education) and hence is a broader measure of welfare than gross domestic product (GDP), which is based on income.Indeed no country for which complete data was available has a lower HDI value now than it had in 2000. Over the last decade, all countries accelerated their achievements in the education, health and income dimensions as measured in the Human Development Index (HDI).
Fourteen countries recorded impressive HDI gains of more than 2 percent annually since 2000. These countries are Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Angola, Timor-Leste, Myanmar, Tanzania, Liberia, Burundi, Mali, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger.Most are low-HDI African countries, with many emerging from long periods of armed conflict.
In the report, the middle class includes people earning or spending $ 10- $100 a day (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms).The middle class in the South is growing rapidly in size, income and expectations. It will triple by 2030 with growth concentrated in Asia. The sheer number of people in the South –the billions of consumers and citizens- multiplies the global human development consequences of actions by governments, companies and international institutions in the South. The South is now emerging alongside the North as a breeding ground for technical innovations and creative entrepreneurship. In North-South trade, the newly industrializing economies have built capabilities to efficiently manufacture complex products for developed country markets. But South-South interactions have enabled companies in the South to adapt and innovate with products and processes that are better suited to local needs.
The 2013 report first identifies more than 40 developing countries with human development gains that significantly outpaced global norms in recent decades.It then looks in greater detail at 17 of those countries, ranging from the biggest high-achievers – beginning with China- to many smaller successful countries in South such as Chile, Ghana and Thailand. While these countries differed greatly in their histories, political systems, economic profiles and development priorities, they share some key characteristics:Commitment to long-term human developmentActively promoting job creationEnhancing public investment in health and educationNurturing industrial capacities
Four countries are featured to show with what kind of policies these countries have significant human development progress. Turkey is among these countries with the health care policy. Brazil with expanding education access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities.Mexico with poverty reduction through innovative cash transfer programmes.India with extending development benefits to broader society key to accelerating progress.
However, the South stillfaces long-term challenges shared by industrialized countries of the North, including an aging population, environmental pressures, social inequalities, mismatches between educational preparation and job opportunities and the need for meaningful civic engagement among others. Although, as we have said, the pace of HDI progress has been fastest in countries in the low and medium human development categories, progress requires more than average improvement in the HDI. It will be neither desirable nor sustainable if increases in the HDI are accompanied by rising inequalities in income, unsustainable patterns of consumption, high military spending and low social cohesion.These require both national and global solutions if developing countries are to maintain their human development momentum. Enhancing Equity: Essential for promoting human development. One of the most powerful instruments for this purpose is education which boosts people’s self confidence and makes it easier for them to find better jobs, engage in public debate and make demands on government for health care, social security and other entitlements. The report suggests that faster educational progress also substantially reduces child mortality, the direct result of improvements in girls’ opportunities for continued education and the well-documented benefits for children of having a well-educated mother. Educating women through adulthood is the closest thing to a silver bullet formula for accelerating human development.Enabling voice and participation: People should be able to influence policy making and results and young people in particular should be able to look forward to greater economic opportunities and political participation and accountability. Confronting Environmental Pressures: While environmental threats such as climate change, deforestation, air and water pollution, and natural disasters affect everyone, they hurt poor countries and poor communities most. The cost of inaction will likely be high. To ensure sustainable economies, new policies and structural changes are needed that align human development and climate change goals in low emission, climate-resilient strategies and innovative public-private financing mechanisms. Managing Demographic Change: In more advanced developing countries, as in the North, aging populations are increasing the burden on the productive workforce, the Report notes. Some poorer regions, however, could benefit from a demographic dividend as the share of their working age population rises, the Report says, but only if appropriate policy action is taken to reap this dividend.
The report warns that non-responsive political structures can prompt civil unrest, especially if economic opportunity does not keep pace with educational advancement, as in the countries that were part of 2011’s uprisings in the Arab States region. The South itself has both the expertise and the resources to be a more powerful force in global development, the Report argues. Developing countries now hold two-thirds of the world’s total 10.2 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, including more than 3 trillion dollars in China alone., and about three-quarters of the 4.3 trillion dollars in assets controlled by sovereign wealth funds worldwide. Even a small share of these vast sums could have a swift measurable impact on global poverty and human development, report says. The 2013 Report argues that the rise of the South is challenging existing global institutions to change and showing new ways that countries and regions can work together to confront shared challenges. As older international institutions fail to adapt, new mechanisms are emerging, such as overlapping networks of national and continent-wide cooperation, including regional trade pacts, security groupings, development banks and bilateral agreements.The South needs greater representation in global governance, which also requires assuming greater responsibility, the Report argues. The global system is overdue for reform, and the Report calls for a more “coherent pluralism” in international governance driven at the national level by “responsible sovereignty,” or the recognition that in an interconnected world, national policy decisions affect neighboring countries and, often, the planet as a whole.The Report urges the convening of a new “South Commission” where developing countries can take the lead in suggesting constructive new approaches to effective global governance. The rise of the South and its potential for accelerating progress for future generations should be seen as beneficial for all countries and regions, as living standards improve and the world as whole becomes ever more deeply interdependent, the Report emphasizes.
Accordingto HDR 2013, the state created favourable economic conditions that encouraged construction and the manufacture of furniture, textiles, food and automobiles—all industries with a high capacity to absorb labour. Turkey’s export basket has since moved towards products that involve more processing, higher technology content and the use of skilled labour. Turkish Minister of Development CevdetYılmazwrites in the Report about how Turkey strengthened health, education and social support programs as a strategy to reduce poverty. “Key policy changes include systematic strengthening of social assistance programmes, conditional cash transfers, social security reforms and an ambitious transformation of the national public health system,” he writes. Trade performance after the 1980s rested on production capacities built in the pre-1980 era of import-substituting industrialization in Turkey.Between 1990 and 2010, its trade to GDP ratio rose from 32% to 48%, a substantial jump for a middle-income country with a large domestic market. In 2011, the top exports—automobiles, iron and steel, and household appliances and consumer electronics—were all from industries that had grown under trade protection.In 2011, Turkish companies made 25 deals worth nearly $3 billion. One of Turkey’s famous acquisitions is Godiva, a Belgian chocolate manufacturer, bought for $850 million by Yıldız Holding.
Turkey’s HDI value for 2012 is 0.722—in the high human development category—positioning the country at 90 out of 187 countries and territories. In the 2011 HDR, Turkey was ranked 92 out of 187 countries. However, it is misleading to compare values and rankings with those of previously published reports, because the underlying data and methods have changed. Between 1980 and 2012, Turkey’s HDI value increased from 0.474 to 0.722, an increase of 52 percent or average annual increase of about 1.3 percent.Between 1980 and 2012, Turkey’s life expectancy at birth increased by 17.7 years, mean years of schooling increased by 3.6 yearsExpected years of schooling increased by 5.5 years. Turkey’s GNI per capita is increased by about 133 percent between 1980 and 2012.
Human Development Report 2013
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2013
INTRODUCTION• Main highlightsfrom 2013 HumanDevelopmentReport• Turkey in 2013HumanDevelopmentReport
“Rise of South” transforming globalpower balance• Developing nations driving economic growth• Lifting hundreds of millions of people frompoverty• Propelling billions more into a new globalmiddle class“The Industrial Revolution was a story of perhaps a hundredmillion people, but this is a story about billions of people”,Khalid Malik, 2013 Report’s lead author.
Some facts…• China and India doubledper capita economicoutput in less than 20years
Much Human Progress, ParticularlyLow HDI Countries0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDIAverage Annual Growth rate 2000-2012
Massive Expansion of the GlobalMiddle Class1990 (1.8 billion)Europe and North AmericaAsia-PacificCentral and South AmericaRest of the World2020 (3.2 billion)2030 (4.9 billion)
Why have some countries done betterthan others?1Commitment tolong-term humandevelopment 2Actively promotingjob creation3Enhancing publicinvestment in healthand education 4 Nurturing industrialcapacities
Social Policy Innovations1 Expanding educationaccess by equalizing fundsacross regions andmunicipalitiesPoverty reductionthrough innovative cashtransfer programmesHealth care for alland targeting thepoor23BRAZILTURKEYMEXICO4 Extending developmentbenefits to the broadersociety key to acceleratingprogressINDIA
Facing Challenges, SustainingMomentum1 24Participation andinclusion essential tostability and social cohesionAging population isincreasing the burden on theproductive workforce.3Environmentalinaction may halthuman developmentprogress in the worldEducated, interconnectedyouth demand greateraccountability
New Resources, NewOpportunities, New Institutions• The rise of the South is challenging existingglobal institutions to change.• The South needs greater representation inglobal governance.• A new South Commission
Rise of the South from Turkey• Favorable economic conditions for industrieswith a high capacity to absorb labor• Strengthening social assistance programmes inTurkey• Rise in GDP ratio from 32% to 48%, between1990 and 2010
Turkey’s Human Development Index• Measured as 0.722 (High HumanDevelopment category)– ranked as 90th out of 187countries– between 1980 and 2012, 52%increase in HDI value• Between 1980 and 2012, Turkey’slife expectancy at birth increasedby 17.7 years, mean years ofschooling increased by 3.6 years• Expected years of schoolingincreased by 5.5 years.• Turkey’s GNI per capita increasedby about 133 % between 1980 and2012.
Turkey compared to OECD and EU00.511.522.53Human Development Index Inequality Adjusted HDI Gender-Inequality IndexOECD AVERAGEEU AVERAGETURKEY
Turkey compared to MIST and CIVETs0.630.640.650.660.670.680.690.70.710.720.73MIST AVERAGE CIVET AVERAGE TurkeyHDIHDIMIST: Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, TurkeyCIVETS: Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa
Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI)• Takes into accountINEQUALITY in HDI• Turkey’s IHDI is0.560 (a loss of22.5% from HDIdue to inequality)
Gender Inequality Index (GII)• Reflects gender-based inequalities in 3dimensions:– Reproductive health (maternalmortality, adolescent fertility rates)– Empowerment (share of parliamentaryseats, attainment at secondary and highereducation)– Economic Activity (labor market participation ratefor each gender)
Gender Inequality Index (GII)• Turkey’s GII value: 0.366– Ranked as 68th out of 148countries.– 14.2% parliamentary seats areheld by women– 26.7% of adult women havereached a secondary or a highereducation– For every 100,000 live births, 20women die from pregnancyrelated causes.– Adolescent fertility rate is 30.5births per 1000 live births.– Female participation in the labormarket is 28.1% compared to71.4% for men.
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)• Identifies multiple deprivations in the same householdsin education, health and standard of living.• A cut-off of 33.3% is used to distinguish between poorand non-poor.– -33.3% means poor– +33.3% means non-poor• Last data is collected in Turkey was in 2003– 6.6% of the population lived in multi-dimensional poverty– 7.3% were vulnerable to multiple deprivations– The intensity of deprivation was 42%– MPI value is 0.028
Conclusion• Human development is not a zero-sum game• New opportunities & New challenges both forthe South and the North.“The South needs the North, and increasingly theNorth needs the South. The world is getting moreconnected, not less”, 2013 HDR Report.For more information: hdr.undp.org / www.undp.org.tr