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International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency
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International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. Alex Körner, International Energy Agency

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Improving fuel economy and reduction of …

Improving fuel economy and reduction of
emissions from road transport in Russia
17-18 June 2014, Moscow

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  • Today there are six partner organizations in the GFEI – four are represented here today (UNEP, ICCT, IEA and ITF).
    We combine our expertise and resources to provide direct support to countries developing auto fuel economy policies – through financial support, technical expertise and access to the global GFEI network of practice of countries that have already designed and implemented such policies.
    This means gathering and analyzing fuel economy data, supporting the establishment of specialized national task forces to evaluate feasible fuel economy solutions like fiscal incentives, labeling and standards, and awareness raising at the global and national levels.
  • Transcript

    • 1. © OECD/IEA 2012 International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Alex Körner International Energy Agency alexander.koerner@iea.org
    • 2. © OECD/IEA 2012 Content  Methodology  Fuel economy trends by country  Car size/engine displacement/power trends  Market shift vs. technology evolution  Spotlight on Russia  Conclusions
    • 3. © OECD/IEA 2012 Global Fuel Economy Initiative 1. Analysis: Data gathering, modeling, baseline development, projections 2. Evaluation of policy options 3. National strategy development, organization of dialogues 4. Awareness rising, communication “How can we maximize the benefits of fuel efficiency in LDVs on a global scale, given the projected expansion of the global fleet?”
    • 4. © OECD/IEA 2012 Definition of fuel economy  GFEI Fuel economy definition: Energy per distance travelled – Lge/100km CO2 emission per distance travelled – gCO2/km
    • 5. © OECD/IEA 2012 Methodology How do we calculate national average fuel economy of new cars?  New vehicle registration data from Polk:  Detailed vehicle sales numbers by brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power, displacement etc…  Vehicle fuel economy data, vehicle segment/class data are partly missing  Manual input of missing data based on model/sales sampling  Satisfactory market coverage when CO2/FE data coverage >75% of total sales  Comparison and convergence with official national CO2/fuel economy data when available (e.g. from EEA, EPA)
    • 6. © OECD/IEA 2012 Vehicle size classification  GFEI analysis focuses on passenger light duty vehicles, light commercial vehicles are excluded for most of the countries  In Australia, Canada and US light commercial vehicles are included within passenger cars as this category comprises the large pick-up segment which are mostly used for passenger transport
    • 7. © OECD/IEA 2012 Test cycles  Globally, the following test cycles to measure new vehicle fuel economy are used:  Europe: New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) – also used in China , Australia,  Japan: JC08  US: FTP 75 – also used in Canada, Korea  Within the GFEI analysis the different tested fuel economy values are not harmonized  GFEI results are in line with officially published data  Harmonization is planned for the next data update
    • 8. © OECD/IEA 2012 Fuel economy trends & market size  Significant fuel economy improvement can be observed if policies are in place  Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement  Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global fuel economy trend 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 France Italy Japan India Turkey UnitedKingdom Germany Indonesia Thailand SouthAfrica Chile Argentina Malaysia Egypt Ukraine Brazil SouthKorea Russia Mexico China Canada USA Australia World EU27 OECD Non-OECD Lgeper100km 2005 2008 2010 2011 70 000 000Sales 2011
    • 9. © OECD/IEA 2012 Targets and reality 2005 2011 2030 8.1 7.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 7.2 8.0 4.0 2005 base year 2012 base year 2008 -3.0% OECD average 7.6 -2.2% -2.7% -2.4% average fuel economy (Lge/100km) annual improvement rate (% per year) Non-OECD average 7.6 0.4% -0.6% -0.1% average fuel economy (Lge/100km) annual improvement rate (% per year) GFEI target -2.7% Global average 7.6 -1.7% -1.8% -1.8% required annual improvement rate (% per year) average fuel economy (Lge/100km) average fuel economy (Lge/100km) annual improvement rate (% per year) 2050: Improve global FE by 50% OECD: rates close to target Non-OECD: little improvement Global: Right trend at slow pace
    • 10. © OECD/IEA 2012 Vehicle size evolution  OECD shows a trend towards smaller cars  In Non-OECD regions SUVs/trucks/vans are getting more popular  Globally, vehicle segmentation seems to converge 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 OECD Non-OECD World large truck F E D Medium truck C Small truck B A Vehicle segemetation Small Large Medium
    • 11. © OECD/IEA 2012 Market by displacement/power  Cars with medium sized engines, both with respect to displacement and power, saw increasing market shares in OECD and Non-OECD regions  Non-OECD cars have significantly smaller and less powerful engines Note: global results for 2005 and 2008 are heavily affected by lack of data in Non-OECD 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 OECD Non-OECD World >3200 2801-3200 2401-2800 2001-2400 1601-2000 1201-1600 801-1200 <800 unknown 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 OECD Non-OECD World >200 151-200 101-150 71-100 51-70 <50 unknown Engine displacement Engine power
    • 12. © OECD/IEA 2012 OECD market dynamics  Big markets with good fuel economy shrunk significantly 2010-2011  Big markets with worse fuel economy grew significantly 2010- 2011  Although fuel economy improvement in most single markets was remarkable, the fuel economy improvement of the aggregated OECD market slowed down due to the internal market shift
    • 13. © OECD/IEA 2012 Spotlight on Russia: Passenger car FE  Passenger car fuel economy improved at an annual rate of about 1% between 2005 and 2011 in Russia, while the market for passenger cars grew about 9% per year - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2005 2008 2010 2011 Thousandvehiclessold Lge/100km PC FE PC sales
    • 14. © OECD/IEA 2012 Spotlight Russia: Vehicle sales by size  In Russia an uptake of smaller cars can be seen over the years  Medium and large SUVs are getting more popular at the same time 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2008 2010 2011 Large truck F E D Medium truck C Small truck B A
    • 15. © OECD/IEA 2012 Vehicle efficiency pays back  Analysis for the IEA “Technology Roadmap on Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles” showed that fuel economy of passenger cars could be improved by 50% at additional costs of around 3000€ per car
    • 16. © OECD/IEA 2012 Conclusions  Fuel economy improvement rate has accelerated in OECD markets and is almost matching the GFEI target rate  Fuel economy policy implentation (and GFEI actions) are fruitful  Non-OECD markets do not show much progress mainly due to the growing importance of larger classes  Fuel economy policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to limit vehicle size shift  As Non-OECD markets become more and more important, global fuel economy development increasingly depends on succesful policy implementation in these regions  Fuel econonomy policies pay back both at the consumer level and at the macro – economic level
    • 17. © OECD/IEA 2012 Thanks!
    • 18. © OECD/IEA 2012 Fuel economy by segment  Large vehicles showed significant fuel economy improvement in all regions  Small vehicles improved fuel economy only marginally 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2005 2011 2005 2011 2005 2011 OECD Non-OECD World Fueleconomy(Lge/100km) Small Medium Large Average

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