The History of Climate Change Negotiations

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UNDP presentation - Gabriela Fischerova, Climate Change Policy Advisor

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The History of Climate Change Negotiations

  1. 1. Short History of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol<br />Gabriela Fischerova<br />Climate Change Policy Advisor<br />
  2. 2. Where it starts<br /><ul><li>1886 Arrhenius hypothesis – carbon dioxide could increase Earth average temperature
  3. 3. 1930 – Lonely voice of G. S. Callendar (warming in the US was due to increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere)
  4. 4. 1950 – More money for the climate research on the weather and the sea
  5. 5. 1960 – First simple mathematical models
  6. 6. 1970s – The rise of environmentalism
  7. 7. 1979 – The First World Climate Conference identified climate change as an urgent world problem (World Climate Programme set up)
  8. 8. 1988 – The Toronto Conference recommended to develop comprehensive global framework convention to protect the atmosphere</li></li></ul><li>UN role<br /><ul><li>1988 – IPCC established by the UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53
  9. 9. 1990 – First assessment Report by the IPCC
  10. 10. 1990 – UN Resolution 45/212 – INC for FCCC established
  11. 11. 1992 – UNFCCC adopted at Rio Earth Summit
  12. 12. 1994 – 21 March – Convention entered into force</li></li></ul><li>Convention – Ultimate objective<br />Article 2:<br /> „The ultimate objective ... is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“<br />
  13. 13. Convention – Principles<br /><ul><li>Precautionary Principle – the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to postpone action when there is a threat of serious or irreversible damage
  14. 14. Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities(CBDR) and respective capabilities – the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof
  15. 15. Principle of Sustainable Development – policies and measures to protect the climate system should be appropriate for the specific conditions of each Party and should be integrated with national development programmes</li></li></ul><li>Convention – Annex I Parties<br />Australia, Austria, Belarus*, Belgium, Bulgaria*, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic*, Denmark, European Community, Estonia*, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary*, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia*, Lichtenstein, Lithuania*, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland*, Portugal, Romania*, Russian Federation*, Slovakia*, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine*, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Malta<br />
  16. 16. Convention – Annex II Parties<br /> Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, European Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America<br />
  17. 17. Convention – Commitments (Art. 4, 5, and 6)<br />All Parties (according to CBDR):<br /><ul><li>Develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies
  18. 18. Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change
  19. 19. Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control, reduce or prevent emissions</li></li></ul><li>Convention – Commitments(Art. 4, 5, and 6)<br /><ul><li>Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases
  20. 20. Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change
  21. 21. Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio-economic and other research, systematic observation and development of data archives
  22. 22. Promote and cooperate in education, training and public awareness
  23. 23. Communicate to the Conference of the Parties information related to implementation</li></li></ul><li>Convention – Commitments (Annex I)<br /><ul><li>Adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs
  24. 24. Communicate detailed information on its policies and measures on mitigation, on inventories, projections, vulnerability assessment, adaptation, financial sources, etc. </li></li></ul><li>Convention – Commitments (Annex II)<br /><ul><li>Provide new and additional financial resources to meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in complying with their obligations
  25. 25. Assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.
  26. 26. Promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention. </li></li></ul><li>Kyoto Protocol<br /><ul><li>1995 – COP 1 of UNFCCC in Berlin 1995 – Berlin mandate to negotiate more stringent commitments for developed countries
  27. 27. 1996 – 2nd Assessment report published by IPCC
  28. 28. 1997 – Kyoto Protocol adopted by COP 3
  29. 29. 2001 – Marrakesh Accords adopted at COP 7 (detailed set of rules for implementation of KP)
  30. 30. 2005 – Entry into force (16 February)
  31. 31. 2005 – COP/MOP 1 (December, Montreal)</li></li></ul><li>Kyoto Protocol – Commitments<br /><ul><li>Commitments only for Annex I Parties
  32. 32. Quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments</li></ul>aggregate by at least -5% in 2008 – 2012 compared to 1990<br />Individual as in Annex B: from -8% to +10% compared to 1990 or other base year (Bulgaria - 1988, Hungary - average of 1985-1987, Poland - 1988, Romania - 1989, Slovenia - 1986).<br /><ul><li>Flexible mechanisms (Joint Implementation JI, Clean Development Mechanism CDM, International Emission trading IET)
  33. 33. Other commitments (national inventory systems, annual reporting …
  34. 34. Burden sharing </li></li></ul><li>Kyoto Protocol – Annex B<br />
  35. 35. Trends in GHG Emissions of Annex I<br />
  36. 36. Kyoto Protocol – Key Problems<br /><ul><li>Inadequate reduction targets
  37. 37. Limited validity for emission reduction (first commitment period 2008 – 2012)
  38. 38. Reduction targets only for certain countries (Annex I)
  39. 39. Geopolitical changes since 1992
  40. 40. Climate is changing faster then expected in 1992</li></li></ul><li>What is needed<br /><ul><li>Keep the temperature raise below 2° C by 2100
  41. 41. The concentration of GHG in the atmosphere should not be higher than 450 ppm
  42. 42. Deeper cuts in global emissions (up to -50% by 2052)
  43. 43. More ambitious commitments for the future period from Annex I Parties (up to -25% to -40% by 2020 compared to 1990) – current pledges of Annex I are from -13% to -19%
  44. 44. Improved rules
  45. 45. New legal architecture </li></li></ul><li>What is needed (cont.)<br />
  46. 46. How to get to future climate regime<br /><ul><li>AWG KP – Ad hoc Working Group for Further Commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 KP)</li></ul>Article 3. 9: „Commitments for subsequent periods for Parties included in Annex I shall be established in amendments to Annex B to this Protocol, which shall be adopted in accordance with the provisions of Article 21, paragraph 7. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Protocol shall initiate the consideration of such commitments at least seven years before the end of the first commitment period<br /><ul><li>2012 (end of the first CP) – 7 = 2005 (COP/MOP 1 in Montreal)</li></li></ul><li>AWG KP<br /><ul><li>Established in December 2005 by COP/MOP1
  47. 47. First sessions in 2006
  48. 48. Currently, 16th session of AWG KP in Bangkok, 2011
  49. 49. Objective:</li></ul>To negotiate commitments for Annex I for second commitment period<br />Improvement of flexible mechanisms<br />Rules for LULUCF (land use, land-use change, and forestry)<br />Methodical issues (global warming potential – GWP, new gases, new sectors, guidelines…)<br />Potential consequences of reduction measures <br />
  50. 50. AWG LCA<br /><ul><li>AWG LCA – Ad hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention – Bali Action Plan
  51. 51. Established by COP14 in Bali, 2007
  52. 52. First session in 2008
  53. 53. Currently 14th session in Bangkok, 2011
  54. 54. Objective:</li></ul> to negotiate long-term cooperative action among the Parties on how to achieve the objective of the Convention, looking at a range of commitments from all Parties to the Convention (to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012)<br />
  55. 55. Bali Action Plan<br /><ul><li>A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions
  56. 56. Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change</li></ul>For developed countries – absolute targets <br />For developing countries – Nationally appropriate mitigation actions – NAMAs<br /><ul><li>Enhanced action on adaptation
  57. 57. Enhanced action on technology development and transfer
  58. 58. Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.</li></li></ul><li>THANK YOU<br /> Gabriela Fischerova, <br /> Climate Change Policy Advisor Tel:  +421 2 59337 219<br /> Mobile: +421 901 736 030E-mail: gabriela.fischerova@undp.org<br />

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