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Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion
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Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion



Max Spoor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Oxford June 2011

Max Spoor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Oxford June 2011



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    Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion Presentation Transcript

    • Inclusive Growth: Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion?
      Max Spoor
      International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University
    • The Context
      Legacy of Soviet, Soviet-type and Yugoslav social systems (command economies, social systems, social distribution, participation)
      Transition Strategies (gradualist, shock, transition indicators on privatization, liberalisation and state/private sector influence)
      Political Transformations (semi- or consolidated democracy, semi- or consolidated authoritarian regimes, role civil society)
      Initial Conditions (income levels, existing poverty levels, closeness to western markets, pre-transition integration with non-Comecon markets)
    • Geographic Position (1)
      • SEE (Southeast Europe): Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.
      • CEE (Central and Eastern Europe): The Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Central European ones, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania Slovakia, and Slovenia (EU).
      • CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States):
      • Russia Federation.
      • Western CIS: Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
      • Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
      • Central Asia: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
      Note: Georgia, Turkmenistan Ukraine are notmember of the CIS organization. However, here we have kept the name CIS as indicating the FSU (minus de Baltic States)
    • Growth Models (2)
      Pre-dominant Growth Models (Cornia 2009):
      Broad-based, industry and investment (FDI)
      Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia
      Foreign lending (+FDI) and real estate boom
      Estonia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova
      Carbonhydrate Sector + Minerals exports
      Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan
      Official Development Aid (ODA) and Migrant Remittances
      Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan
      Mixed Growth Models:
      Belarus, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
    • Drivers of Growth (3)
      Extractive industry and mining
      Manufacturing industry and services
      Cash-crop agriculture
      Construction and real estate
      Migrant remittances
      Official Development Assistance
      Illegal Activities and shadow economy
    • Political Economy (4)
      Political Economy Settings (Cerami and Stubbs 2010):
    • HDIs
      In-Between Country Inequalities
    • Inclusive Growth and Human Development
      Terry McKinley (2010)
      Development of a composite indicator of inclusive growth
      Two aspects:
      Growth, employment, and infrastructure
      Income, poverty, and inequality
      Equal weights (50%) to both
    • Growth, employment & infrastructure
      Economic growth
      Real rate of growth of GDP/capita
      Share of industry, services and agriculture in total value added (indicating the degree of structural change)
      Productive employment
      Share of the employed in industry
      Share of the employed in manufacturing
      Share of own-account workers and formally unpaid family workers in total employment
      Supplementary indicator (share of workers below 2.50 US$/day) at PPP poverty line
      Access to infrastructure
      Proportion of the population with access to electricity
      Number of mobile phone subscribers per 100 people
    • Income, poverty and inequality
      Poverty indicators:
      The proportion of the population living below nationally determined poverty lines
      The proportion of the population living below the international poverty line (in 2005 constant prices, of 2.50 US$/day)
      Inequality indicators, vertical:
      The Gini coefficient of income inequality
      The income share of the poorest 60% of the population
      Inequality indicators, horizontal:
      The income or expenditure gap between rural and urban areas
      Where feasible, the income or expenditure gap among regions or among major ethnic groupings
    • Towards Inclusive Growth
      Policy agenda focused on the quality of growth and recovery
      Diversification of growth poles and dynamic sectors
      Public investment in leverage points (roads, communication etc) in particular in intermediate cities where poverty is highest
      Fiscal policies to diminish income inequality
      Diminishing asset inequality (through redistribution, rental markets)
      Improving social infrastructure
      Combining labour market flexibility and improving security (flexicurity?)
      Human capital building, job opportunities for the “new poor”