Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion


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Max Spoor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, Oxford June 2011

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Inclusive Growth Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion

  1. 1. Inclusive Growth: Beyond Poverty and Social Exclusion?<br />Max Spoor<br />International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University<br />
  2. 2. The Context<br />Legacy of Soviet, Soviet-type and Yugoslav social systems (command economies, social systems, social distribution, participation)<br />Transition Strategies (gradualist, shock, transition indicators on privatization, liberalisation and state/private sector influence)<br />Political Transformations (semi- or consolidated democracy, semi- or consolidated authoritarian regimes, role civil society) <br />Initial Conditions (income levels, existing poverty levels, closeness to western markets, pre-transition integration with non-Comecon markets)<br />
  3. 3. Geographic Position (1)<br /><ul><li>SEE (Southeast Europe): Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.
  4. 4. CEE (Central and Eastern Europe): The Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Central European ones, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania Slovakia, and Slovenia (EU).
  5. 5. CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States):
  6. 6. Russia Federation.
  7. 7. Western CIS: Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
  8. 8. Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
  9. 9. Central Asia: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.</li></ul>Note: Georgia, Turkmenistan Ukraine are notmember of the CIS organization. However, here we have kept the name CIS as indicating the FSU (minus de Baltic States)<br />
  10. 10. Growth Models (2)<br />Pre-dominant Growth Models (Cornia 2009):<br />Broad-based, industry and investment (FDI)<br />Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia<br />Foreign lending (+FDI) and real estate boom<br />Estonia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova <br />Carbonhydrate Sector + Minerals exports<br />Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan<br />Official Development Aid (ODA) and Migrant Remittances<br />Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan<br />Mixed Growth Models:<br />Belarus, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan<br />
  11. 11. Drivers of Growth (3)<br />Extractive industry and mining<br />Manufacturing industry and services<br />Cash-crop agriculture<br />Construction and real estate<br />Migrant remittances<br />Official Development Assistance<br />Illegal Activities and shadow economy<br />
  12. 12. Political Economy (4)<br />Political Economy Settings (Cerami and Stubbs 2010):<br />
  13. 13. HDIs<br />In-Between Country Inequalities<br />
  14. 14. Inclusive Growth and Human Development<br />Terry McKinley (2010)<br />Development of a composite indicator of inclusive growth<br />Two aspects:<br />Growth, employment, and infrastructure<br />Income, poverty, and inequality<br />Equal weights (50%) to both<br />
  15. 15. Growth, employment & infrastructure<br />Economic growth<br />Real rate of growth of GDP/capita<br />Share of industry, services and agriculture in total value added (indicating the degree of structural change)<br />Productive employment<br />Share of the employed in industry<br />Share of the employed in manufacturing<br />Share of own-account workers and formally unpaid family workers in total employment<br />Supplementary indicator (share of workers below 2.50 US$/day) at PPP poverty line<br />Access to infrastructure<br />Proportion of the population with access to electricity<br />Number of mobile phone subscribers per 100 people<br />
  16. 16. Income, poverty and inequality<br />Poverty indicators:<br />The proportion of the population living below nationally determined poverty lines<br />The proportion of the population living below the international poverty line (in 2005 constant prices, of 2.50 US$/day)<br />Inequality indicators, vertical:<br />The Gini coefficient of income inequality<br />The income share of the poorest 60% of the population<br />Inequality indicators, horizontal:<br />The income or expenditure gap between rural and urban areas<br />Where feasible, the income or expenditure gap among regions or among major ethnic groupings<br />
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Towards Inclusive Growth<br />Policy agenda focused on the quality of growth and recovery<br />Diversification of growth poles and dynamic sectors<br />Public investment in leverage points (roads, communication etc) in particular in intermediate cities where poverty is highest<br />Fiscal policies to diminish income inequality<br />Diminishing asset inequality (through redistribution, rental markets)<br />Improving social infrastructure<br />Combining labour market flexibility and improving security (flexicurity?)<br />Human capital building, job opportunities for the “new poor”<br />