Governing education in a context of economic recession


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Regional Conference on Fighting Corruption in Education in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 24-25 November, Bratislava
Dirk Van Damme

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Governing education in a context of economic recession

  1. 1. Governing education ina context of economicrecession Dirk Van Damme Head of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation - OECD
  2. 2. Outline• Impact of the recession on education• Changing policy contexts• Governance of education systems• Some conclusions 2
  3. 3. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste” Paul Romer – Emanuel Rahm 3
  4. 4. Impact of the recession on education• Rising demand for education – Lower opportunity costs for education – Delaying entry on the labour market is a rational strategy – Private sector reducing investments in training – Hence, increased demand for post-compulsory education, especially in VET• But private cost of participation also increases – Some countries increase private cost, while others try to contain the private cost by social measures 4
  5. 5. Impact of the recession on education• Private benefits from post-compulsory education continue to be high in most countries – High private return – But also high social returns 5
  6. 6. Impact of the recession on education• Transition from school to labour market becomes more difficult – Rising youth unemployment probably the most visible and problematic social consequence of the recession – On average in OECD increase in youth unemployment rate from 10.3% to 13.5% from 2008 to 2009 – Low schooled people are very vulnerable for weak employment opportunities 6
  7. 7. When the crisis hit Percentage point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for the 15-29 year-olds Iceland Spain Ireland Italy Turkey SwitzerlandCzech Republic New Zealand Hungary IsraelUnited Kingdom France Australia Netherlands OECD average Below upper secondary education Austria Tertiary education Finland Canada Poland Norway Denmark Slovenia Sweden Greece Belgium Estonia GermanySlovak Republic Portugal (10.00) (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
  8. 8. Impact of the recession on education• Most governments try to contain the impact of the recession and fiscal consolidation on education budgets – In 2009 and 2010 still few signs of budget cuts in education, but notable exceptions in a few countries – Some countries included educational investments in their stimulus measures – 2011 and 2012 budgets may result in different picture 8
  9. 9. Impact of the recession on education• Many countries see the recession as an opportunity to accelerate educational reform – Tackling youth employment, meeting increased educational demand, prepare future economic growth and fostering innovation• Educational reform more and more focused on increasing efficiency in education systems 9
  10. 10. Impact of the recession on education Primary Secondary Tertiary VETAustralia ReductionBelgium (Fl) AccelerationDenmark AccelerationFinland Reduction Reduction ReductionGreece Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration AccelerationHungary Reduction Reduction AccelerationIreland Expansion Expansion Expansion ExpansionJapan Expansion Expansion ExpansionKorea Acceleration ReductionPortugal ExpansionSpain Acceleration Acceleration AccelerationSweden Expansion 10
  11. 11. Changing policy contexts• Changing skills policies – Competition between nations in high-qualified and high-skilled people is rising – High social costs of low skills – Qualifications without matching skills levels will become economically detrimental – Growing importance of comparative and realistic assessment of skills and learning outcomes (PISA, PIAAC, AHELO) – Importance of changing skills demands as result of technology and innovation (21st C skills) 11
  12. 12. 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 % 45 50 0 5 United States Israel Norway Netherlands Canada Denmark Iceland Estonia 2000sRussian Federation Australia United Kingdom New Zealand Switzerland 1990s Sweden Hungary Japan OECD average Germany 1980s EU19 average Chile Finland Luxembourg Greece 1970s Ireland Poland Spain France Czech Republic Korea Growth in university-level qualifications Belgium Slovak Republic the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2008) Italy Turkey Brazil Mexico Austria Portugal Approximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in Slovenia
  13. 13. Low skills and economic outcomes Increased likelihood of failure (16-65 year olds) 3.5 In lowest two quintiles of personal income 3.0 Unemployed 2.5 2.0 Received social assistance in last year 1.5 Did not receive 1.0 investment income in last year 0 1 2 3 4 Number of skills domains with low performanceOdds are adjusted for age, gender and immigration status. 13
  14. 14. Changing policy contexts• Efficiency of education systems will become top- priority – Most education systems have seen a significant increase in resources over the past 10 years without a comparable increase in output – Especially failing schools will come into the picture – Schools and teachers more and more held accountable for learning outcomes – Policies focusing on the efficiency gaps in the system 14
  15. 15. Governance• Recent trends in educational governance – From central regulation to decentralisation and deregulation • Often intended, not always realised • Multiplication of governance levels – From input- to output steering – Stakeholder participation and more demand- oriented policies – Increasing school autonomy • School leadership and management • Local control over curricula 15
  16. 16. Governance Main level of decision-making regarding secondary education curriculum School Mixed Central Australia, Hungary, Low Netherlands, (highly Korea Iceland New flexible) Zealand, Scotland Austria, Luxembourg, Estonia,Central Mexico, Finland, Italy, Norway,influence Neutral Portugal, France, Sweden Spain, Japan Slovenia, Turkey High Belgium (Fl.), (control Czech ~ ~ from a Republic, distance) England
  17. 17. Governance• Recent trends in educational governance – Increasing accountability on performance • Based on measurable objectives and indicators – ‘Governing by numbers’ – Focus on evaluation and quality assurance – Increasing transparency • Both at institutional and system level • Transparency on all dimensions: – Input – Process – Outputs 17
  18. 18. Governance• Contemporary governance models are combination of public regulation and market mechanisms• Crucial role of knowledge and evidence in central and local governance – ‘Evidence-based policy and practice’ – New information and feedback systems in education 18
  19. 19. Conclusions• The economic recession has not (yet) hit the education system but has set the conditions for a policy context which will focus more on effectiveness in realising outcomes (skills for employability) and efficiency• Governance in education is changing with more local control but also more accountability and transparency• Trust in education (for producing outcomes, for matching qualifications with skills, …) will become a critical factor in educational competition 19
  20. 20. Thank you ! 20