By 2050, the global HDI would be:19% higher than it is today.Largest increase in developing countries (24%).44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 36% for South Asia.8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.Dramatic impact on developing countries24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.
Empowered lives. Resilient nations.Sustainability, equity, and thegreen economy: Implications for Croatia Ben Slay Senior economist UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS
Key messages: Global• World has made major progress in past two decades . . .• . . . But this progress is increasingly threatened by unsustainable environment policies and practices – Key manifestation: failing ecosystem services – Key causes: • Over-exploitation of common property resources • Population growth • Consumerist aspirations of global middle class• Environmental sustainability and equity are closely linked – Sustainability is about inter-generational equity . . . • . . . But what about intra-generational equity? • More equal societies have better development indicators – “Double burden”: Many of the world’s poor bear environmental risks as well as income poverty,• These issues will be taken up at UNCSD in Rio (June 2012)
Sustainable development and the green economyThe three “pillars” of sustainable human development • 1992 Rio earth summit popularized “three pillar” model Economic: • Is green growth the Issue of traditional growth based on high use of energy intersection of: energy pricing, regulation, direct government activities – Economic and environmental pillars? – All three pillars? Social • Developing countries are Environmental Inclusion, access to resources, green jobs, health, education – Biodiversity, water, food, energy, suspicious of the green good governance climate change impact economy because it may leave out the social pillar • Are green growth, inclusive growth different? Solutions that are compatible across all three strands
Key messages: Regional• New EU member states, Western Balkans, former Soviet republics compare well with other regions . . .• . . . But there are causes for concern as well: – Relatively high levels of energy inefficiency• Good examples: energy efficiency in Croatia – Highlighted in Development and Transition• Concrete examples of how UNDP can help
Possible consequencesof environmental unsustainability Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of education
The world is warmingSea levels: RisingNatural disasters:Average annualnumber has doubled inlast 25 yearsGreatest impact bornby low HDI countries• Greatest forest cover losses(11% since 1990)• Poorest households, countriescan not afford to reforest
“Double burden” of income poverty, poor access to resources Poor households are likely to: 90% 80% Form of • cook with wood, dung deprivation • not have access to improved water, sanitation services 35% Multiple deprivations: • 80% of poor households experience two or more deprivations Modern Sanitation Water • 29% face all three cooking fuels Particular burden on women
How much finance is needed?• For climate change mitigation, adaptation: – Estimates are uncertain . . . – . . . Ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion, annually• For water and sanitation: $60 billion annually• Most of this must come from private sector . . . – . . . But how effective are carbon markets?
Public finance and climate change• ODA needed to: – Leverage carbon markets – Promote market deepening by reducing: • Risks • Transactions costs• Financial transactions tax? – EU has pledged to introduce this in 2012 . . . – . . . But not necessarily for development, or carbon finance
How much finance is coming?• Copenhagen summit (2009):―Green climate fund‖ • Developed countries are to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2020 • ―New, additional monies‖• 2010: $97 billion in carbonfinance flows • $93 billion—mitigation • Private sector: $55 billion • ODA: • $39 billion—mostly via development banks . . . •. . . Most not ―new and additional‖ • Carbon markets: ―only‖ provided $2.3 billion Source: The Economist (5 November 2011)
Rio + 20—Issues • Financing the transition to low- carbon growth? • MDGs after 2015? • Sustainable development goals? • Reform of global environmental governance? • Binding emissions targets?
Regional dimension: High/very high HDI levelsOECD countries (2004 new EU member states), CroatiaMoldova, Central Asia (except Kazakhstan) Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of Russia, other Former Soviet education republics, Southeast Europe
Forest cover is returning 2% 1%Asia, Pacific Europe, Central Asia Arab states Latin America, Caribbean Sub-Sahara Africa Change in square kilometres of forest coverage, 1990-2010 -8% -10% -12%
Greenhouse gases—manytransition economies still outliers1.7 1.6 1.6 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
But: many European transitioneconomies beat the global average 0.5 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Global Slovakia Croatia Armenia Lithuania Albania Latvia UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
Carbon finance: Not comingJoint implementation Clean development projects approved* mechanism projects 400 approved* 212 Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Rest of the world Rest of the world *As of 31 August 2011 John O’Brien, “Carbon finance: Opportunities and reality”, Development and Transition
Carbon finance: What is to be done?• Reduce high transactions costs for projects, by: – Accelerating project approval – Increasing project size – “Bundling”• Capacity development for: – Designated national authorities – Private companies in: • Energy efficiency • Renewables – Project beneficiaries
UNDP can help—Croatia• UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency• Results (2006-2010): – Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted – Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings – $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings – Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons – “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities – 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created – $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition
• UNDP’s regional research bulletin, for Europe and Central Asia• Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, p olicy, programming• Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects• Distributed to: – All UNDP staff in Europe, Central Asia region – 3000 external subscribers www.developmentandtransition.net
Food for thought• EU accession “20/20/20” policy: – Reduce primary energy use by 20% – Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% – Increase share of renewables in energy mix to 20% – By 2020• EU countries that are furthest along in this respect have: – Energy prices high enough to encourage renewables – Feed-in tariff regimes that work