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Croatia - Sustainability, Equity and the Green Economy

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  • By 2050, the global HDI would be:19% higher than it is today.Largest increase in developing countries (24%).44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 36% for South Asia.8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.Dramatic impact on developing countries24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.
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    • 1. Empowered lives. Resilient nations.Sustainability, equity, and thegreen economy: Implications for Croatia Ben Slay Senior economist UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS
    • 2. Rio+20“Three birds with one stone”
    • 3. Key messages: Global• World has made major progress in past two decades . . .• . . . But this progress is increasingly threatened by unsustainable environment policies and practices – Key manifestation: failing ecosystem services – Key causes: • Over-exploitation of common property resources • Population growth • Consumerist aspirations of global middle class• Environmental sustainability and equity are closely linked – Sustainability is about inter-generational equity . . . • . . . But what about intra-generational equity? • More equal societies have better development indicators – “Double burden”: Many of the world’s poor bear environmental risks as well as income poverty,• These issues will be taken up at UNCSD in Rio (June 2012)
    • 4. Sustainable development and the green economyThe three “pillars” of sustainable human development • 1992 Rio earth summit popularized “three pillar” model Economic: • Is green growth the Issue of traditional growth based on high use of energy intersection of: energy pricing, regulation, direct government activities – Economic and environmental pillars? – All three pillars? Social • Developing countries are Environmental Inclusion, access to resources, green jobs, health, education – Biodiversity, water, food, energy, suspicious of the green good governance climate change impact economy because it may leave out the social pillar • Are green growth, inclusive growth different? Solutions that are compatible across all three strands
    • 5. Key messages: Regional• New EU member states, Western Balkans, former Soviet republics compare well with other regions . . .• . . . But there are causes for concern as well: – Relatively high levels of energy inefficiency• Good examples: energy efficiency in Croatia – Highlighted in Development and Transition• Concrete examples of how UNDP can help
    • 6. Possible consequencesof environmental unsustainability Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of education
    • 7. The world is warmingSea levels: RisingNatural disasters:Average annualnumber has doubled inlast 25 yearsGreatest impact bornby low HDI countries• Greatest forest cover losses(11% since 1990)• Poorest households, countriescan not afford to reforest
    • 8. Precipitation patterns changing Avg. value, 1951 - 1980Avg. value, 2000s
    • 9. “Double burden” of income poverty, poor access to resources Poor households are likely to: 90% 80% Form of • cook with wood, dung deprivation • not have access to improved water, sanitation services 35% Multiple deprivations: • 80% of poor households experience two or more deprivations Modern Sanitation Water • 29% face all three cooking fuels Particular burden on women
    • 10. How much finance is needed?• For climate change mitigation, adaptation: – Estimates are uncertain . . . – . . . Ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion, annually• For water and sanitation: $60 billion annually• Most of this must come from private sector . . . – . . . But how effective are carbon markets?
    • 11. Public finance and climate change• ODA needed to: – Leverage carbon markets – Promote market deepening by reducing: • Risks • Transactions costs• Financial transactions tax? – EU has pledged to introduce this in 2012 . . . – . . . But not necessarily for development, or carbon finance
    • 12. How much finance is coming?• Copenhagen summit (2009):―Green climate fund‖ • Developed countries are to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2020 • ―New, additional monies‖• 2010: $97 billion in carbonfinance flows • $93 billion—mitigation • Private sector: $55 billion • ODA: • $39 billion—mostly via development banks . . . •. . . Most not ―new and additional‖ • Carbon markets: ―only‖ provided $2.3 billion Source: The Economist (5 November 2011)
    • 13. Rio + 20—Issues • Financing the transition to low- carbon growth? • MDGs after 2015? • Sustainable development goals? • Reform of global environmental governance? • Binding emissions targets?
    • 14. Regional dimension: High/very high HDI levelsOECD countries (2004 new EU member states), CroatiaMoldova, Central Asia (except Kazakhstan) Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of Russia, other Former Soviet education republics, Southeast Europe
    • 15. Forest cover is returning 2% 1%Asia, Pacific Europe, Central Asia Arab states Latin America, Caribbean Sub-Sahara Africa Change in square kilometres of forest coverage, 1990-2010 -8% -10% -12%
    • 16. Greenhouse gases—manytransition economies still outliers1.7 1.6 1.6 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
    • 17. But: many European transitioneconomies beat the global average 0.5 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Global Slovakia Croatia Armenia Lithuania Albania Latvia UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
    • 18. Carbon finance: Not comingJoint implementation Clean development projects approved* mechanism projects 400 approved* 212 Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Rest of the world Rest of the world *As of 31 August 2011 John O’Brien, “Carbon finance: Opportunities and reality”, Development and Transition
    • 19. Carbon finance: What is to be done?• Reduce high transactions costs for projects, by: – Accelerating project approval – Increasing project size – “Bundling”• Capacity development for: – Designated national authorities – Private companies in: • Energy efficiency • Renewables – Project beneficiaries
    • 20. UNDP can help—Croatia• UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency• Results (2006-2010): – Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted – Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings – $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings – Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons – “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities – 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created – $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition
    • 21. • UNDP’s regional research bulletin, for Europe and Central Asia• Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, p olicy, programming• Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects• Distributed to: – All UNDP staff in Europe, Central Asia region – 3000 external subscribers www.developmentandtransition.net
    • 22. Food for thought• EU accession  “20/20/20” policy: – Reduce primary energy use by 20% – Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% – Increase share of renewables in energy mix to 20% – By 2020• EU countries that are furthest along in this respect have: – Energy prices high enough to encourage renewables – Feed-in tariff regimes that work