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World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013: Global Economic Outlook 2012-2014

by Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on Dec 18, 2012

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Latest report (available at bit.ly/wesp) shows that growth of the world economy has weakened considerably during 2012 and is expected to remain subdued in the coming two years. The global economy is expected to grow at 2.4 per cent in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014, a significant downgrade from the UN’s forecast of half a year ago.

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World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013: Global Economic Outlook 2012-2014 Presentation Transcript

WESP 2013Global Outlook 2012-2014 Rob VosDecember 18, 2012 New Yorkwww.un.org/esa/policy

Main messages1. Renewed global economic slowdown • Much of Europe mired in recession - trapped in vicious circle of debt, low growth and high unemployment • Considerable slowdown worldwide (incl. emerging economies) • Jobs crisis continues1. High risk of downward spiral into new global recession • Escalation of euro area crisis • Fiscal cliff in the United States • Hard landing in China & other emerging economies3. Breaking out of the vicious cycle • Shift away from self-defeating fiscal austerity • Redesign fiscal policies to support job creation & green growth • Coordinate monetary policy & accelerate financial sector reforms • Enhance development financing 2

Slowdown in baseline with significant downsiderisks, but hopes for benign rebalancing withcoordinated policies

A synchronized global slowdown… 10 8 6 Developing Economies 4 2 Economies in Transition 0 Developed Economies -2 -4 -6 -8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4

Feeble policy efforts to break out of Vicious Cycle

The jobs crisis continues:no employment recovery before 2017at going trends

Developed country weaknessesare spilling overGlobal trade growth More capital flow volatilityhas slowed markedly for developing countries

Impact of downside risks onworld economy will be substantial 8

How to get the world economy backon track?•Present policy stances insufficient and source of uncertaintyFundamental policy shift is required:•Coordination of fiscal policy  new growth impulses•Redesign fiscal and structural policies  job creation & green growth•Monetary policy coordination  less capital volatility•Accelerate financial regulatory reform  reduce financial fragility•Ensure adequate development finance  benign rebalancing and achieving MDGs 9

Coordinated strategy for growth andjobs can lift all boatsEmployment in Europe and US will recover by 2014 and 33million more jobs per year in developing countries