Module 10   definition & causes of climate change & impact on ap region
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Definition & causes of Climate change & Impact on AP Region

Definition & causes of Climate change & Impact on AP Region

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  • 1. Definition & causes of climate change, impact on development with focus on Asia Pacific
    Richard Labelle
    rlab@sympatico.ca
    Module 10
    Session 1(Seoul, Korea, 23 February 2011)
  • 2. 2
    Objectives of Module 10
    To show that ICTs can be used to address climate change
    To demonstrate why ICTs are a crucial part of the solution – i.e. in promoting efficiency, Green Growth & sustainable development
  • 3. 3
    What is climate change?
    Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 4. 4
    Discussion
    Is climate change real?
    How is it affecting your country or region?
    Summarize the evidence of climate change in your regions (4 groups)
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 5. 5
    The causes of climate change (1)
    The variability in the composition of the constituents of the global atmosphere that affects the energy balance of the planet earth
    When certain gases which absorb solar radiation and emit heat increase in concentration in the atmosphere, this can lead to global warming and climate change
  • 6. 6
    The causes of climate change (2)
    Atmospheric gases that absorb solar radiation more than others retain heat that warms the atmosphere and the surface of the planet
    This leads to global warming and climate change
  • 7. 7
    What is global warming?
    Increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.
    Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century.
    Wikipedia. 2010. Global warming. Last modified March 18, 2010, 1621. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cnote_A
  • 8. 8
    Natural greenhouse gases (GHGs)
    Naturally occurring GHGs:
    Water vapor (H2O),
    Carbon dioxide (CO2),
    Nitrous oxide (N2O),
    Methane (CH4),
    Ozone (O3).
  • 9. 9
    Human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs)
    Sulfur hexaflouride (SF6)
    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
    Perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
  • 10. 10
    Relative contribution of GHGs to global warming
    [1]
  • 11. The greenhouse effect
    11
    Greenpeace. 2005. Image. The greenhouse effect. Illustration of the greenhouse effect.http://www.greenpeace.org/international/photosvideos/photos/greenhouse_effect?mode=send
  • 12. 12
    Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) - Mauna Loa or Keeling curve
    [1]
    Wikipedia. 2010. Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg. Own work, from Image:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide.png, uploaded in Commons by Nils Simon under licence GFDL & CC-NC-SA ; itself created by Robert A. Rohde from NOAA published data and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg
  • 13. 13
    Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 January 2011:  391.19 ppm
    [1]
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
  • 14. 14
    Evidence of climate change comes from:
    Data on global average surface temperatures;
    Global average sea level rise
    The thermal expansion of the water in the oceans plus the amount of glacier ice that has melted and that has led by extension to a rise in the level of the oceans around the world
    Northern hemisphere snow cover.
  • 15. 15
    Changes in temperature, sea level and Northern Hemisphere snow cover
    [1]
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 16. 16
    Fluctuations in T (red line) and in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (yellow) over the past 649,000 years
    [1]
    US. EPA. 2009. Climate change science. Figure 1: Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Temperature. 8 Sept. 2009. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc_fig1.html
  • 17. 17
    Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data over a period of 10,000 years before the present
    [1]
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 18. 18
    Global and continental temperature change
    [1]
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 19. 19
    Other explanations for climate change
    Natural phenomena
    Long range natural cycle of climate change
  • 20. 20
    Mapping the global variation in CO2 emissions
    [1]
    UNDP. 2007. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. Map. 1.1. UNDP, New York. 399 pp.
  • 21. 21
    Most important sources of GHG emissions
    Fossil fuel related energy emissions
    Emissions from land-use changes and then agriculture where much of the releases are due to methane release and nitrous oxides escaping from the soil surface of cultivated land.
  • 22. 22
    Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation)
    [1]
    IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 23. 23
    [1]
    World Resources Institute. 2005. Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT), Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy, December 2005. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1996 (data for 2000). http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-sector1
  • 24. 24
    Group discussion
    Can ICTs have a role in reducing emissions from these sectors?
    How?
    Choose 2 sectors and discuss how ICTs can limit or help avoid GHG emissions
  • 25. 25
    Life Cycle GHG Emissions for Selected Power Generation Technologies
    [1]
    IAEA. 2010. Judge Nuclear. IAEA Bulletin51-2, April 2010. Pp. 16.19. http://www.iaea.or.at/OurWork/ST/NE/judge-nuclear.html
  • 26. 26
    Shares of Non-Fossil Sources in the Electricity Sector and CO2 Intensities for Selected Countries in 2006
    [1]
    IAEA. 2010. Judge Nuclear. IAEA Bulletin51-2, April 2010. Pp. 16.19. http://www.iaea.or.at/OurWork/ST/NE/judge-nuclear.htmll
  • 27. 27
    IPCC Projections of surface warming as a result of increasing GHG emissions
    [1]
    [IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 28. 28
    Fossil fuel emissions: actual vs. IPCC scenarios
    [1]
    Global Carbon Project. 2009. Carbon 2008. Budget 08 Released on 17 November 2009. GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium. PowerPoint presentation. GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium. 38 slides.
  • 29. 29
    Growth in fossil fuel demand
    Growth in fossil fuel demand is following the worst case scenarios predicted by a variety of different experts
  • 30. 30
    What is driving energy demand?
    Growing population & affluence
    Shift in global growth to emerging markets
  • 31. 31
    What is affecting energy prices? (1)
    Price, availability and security of energy supplies
    Environmental risks associated with hard to access oil resources
    Offshore & deep sea drilling
    Drilling in sensitive ecosystems: the Arctic/Antarctic, coastal areas, etc.
    Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands, heavy oil)
    Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas
  • 32. 32
    What is affecting energy prices? (2)
    Global security issues
    Policy uncertainty on fossil fuels & renewables
    Investment paralysis in the West
    China votes for investing in both fossil fuels & renewables!
  • 33. 33
    Growth in World primary energy demand to 2035, IEA New Policies Scenario
    [1]
    IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides. http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf
  • 34. 34
    The impact of climate change (1)
    The efficiency of CO2 sinks is down
    Atmospheric CO2 is being added at the rate of 2ppm annually
    Methane up after 10 years of being stable
    Carbonate calcium walls of marine life are down. The oceans are getting more acidic.
  • 35. 35
    The impact of climate change (2)
    Oceans have warmed up faster
    Arctic sea ice is at a low peak
    Greenland ice sheets have decreased in size
    Fossil fuel emissions are above worst case scenarios
    Deforestation emissions continue and are high
  • 36. 36
    Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change (Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation, rate of temperature change and socio-economic pathway)
    [1]
    IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
  • 37. Impacts from increasing GHGs levels in the atmosphere
    37
    [1] Stern, N. 2006. Stern Review on the economics of climate change (pre-publication edition). Executive summary. HM Treasury. London. 27 pp. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
  • 38. 38
    In the Asia Pacific region, the following changes are anticipated (1):
    By the 2050s, freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease.
    Coastal areas, especially heavily populated megadelta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers.
  • 39. 39
    In the Asia Pacific region, the following changes are anticipated (2):
    Climate change is projected to compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development.
    Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle.
  • 40. 40
    In small island states the following changes are predicted
    Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.
    Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources.
  • 41. 41
    In small island states the following changes are predicted
    By mid-century, climate change is expected to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g. in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods.
    With higher temperatures, increased invasion by non-native species is expected to occur, particularly on mid- and high-latitude islands.
  • 42. 42
    Solutions going forward: two issues & how to deal with them
    Increasing demand for energy
    Will need both fossil fuels & new and alternate energy
    Need to limit GHG emissions
    Need to replace emissions from fossil fuel emitting sources
  • 43. 43
    We have a problem!
    Renewables are plentiful but require massive investment to fully replace fossil fuels
    23,000 CMO / yr. from solar.. but…
    Now using about 0.2 CMO/yr fm solar
    For 1 CMO solar: 70,000 x 100 MW Spain Andasol solar thermal @ $ 14 Trillion
    27 Andasol projects/ week for 50 yrs!
    At present rate of E demand – need 270 CMO by 2050!
  • 44. 44
    Predicted global energy use in CMO under 4 different scenarios
    [1]
    Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa
  • 45. 45
    Proportion of energy expressed in CMO from different primary sources (2006 data)
    [1]
    Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa
  • 46. 46
    IEA estimate of renewable and other power technology investments for lowest GHG emissions
    [1]
    [IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Lisbon, 21 October 2010. http://www.renewable.pt/pt/Noticias/Documents/2010_Nobuo_Tanaka.pdf
  • 47. 47
    Global change & global action
    Lack of unified commitment to UNFCCC process does not mean lack of action…
  • 48. 48
    The top ten countries leading investment in clean energy technologies
    [1]
    [Pew Charitable Trusts. 2010. The clean energy economy. China Leads G-20 Members in Clean Energy Finance and Investment. http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/cleanenergyeconomy/pr_24mar2010.html
  • 49. 49
    Some elements of a solution
    No silver bullet (no single solution)
    Mix of approaches needed
    Efficiency and conservation very very important
    Transition from fossil fuels with focus on renewables & efficiency, CCS, +/- nuclear
    WWF 2011: possible to (mostly) replace fossil fuels with renewables by 2050... without nuclear or CCS
  • 50. 50
    The past contribution of energy efficiency
    [1]
    Segar, C. 2009. International energy co-operation and global energy security. International Energy Agency (IEA). Session on “Ensuring the sustainability of energy supply chain”, Conference on Strengthening Energy Security in the OSCE area, Bratislava, 6 – 7 July 2009. PowerPoint presentation. http://www.osce.org/documents/eea/2009/07/38666_en.pdf
  • 51. 51
    Energy efficiency will have major role to play in achieving low C future (IEA)
    [1]
    IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides. http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf
  • 52. 52
    ICTs are key!
  • 53. 53
    ICTs enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by (1):
    Process efficiency
    Doing things faster
    Use less energy  emit less C
    Connecting everything:
    The Internet of Things
    Measuring everything:
    The Internet of Things
    More info on energy use
  • 54. 54
    ICTs enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by (2):
    Controlling everything
    Smart controls
    Connect & control all motors & energy consumption (embedded controls)
    More options to reduce consumption: smart logistics /transport & cities
  • 55. 55
    Different measures and technologies will be needed to get the world onto a 2°C path
    [1]
    [World Bank. 2010. World Development Report. Development and Climate Change. Figure 8. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 439 pp.
  • 56. 56
    IEA: Key technologies for reducing CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario
    [1]
    [IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. OECD/IEA, Paris, 20 pp. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/etp2010sum.pdf
  • 57. 57
    Discussion
  • 58. Thank You
    Visit ava.unapcict.org for more info
    and free online learning courses.
    Twitter : @unapcict (twitter.com/unapcict)
    United Nations Asian and Pacific Training Centre for Information and Communication Technology for Development