Let’s have a look at what’s in store for us in this unit...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbF3fG2cc8I...and look at how many of us there are!http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop
Aims of Unit• To understand population structure and interpret ‘population pyramids’• To know how a census is conducted and describe problems with its accuracy/use• To describe and explain factors that cause changes in population – both in EMDCs & ELDCs• To understand the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
World Population DensityPop. Density:People persq.km
Population StructurePopulation Structure describes thecomposition of a country’s population interms of its age and gender.The best way to show this data is by using a‘Population Pyramid’
A simple way of understanding a population pyramid is to think of it as a visual aid telling you how many people of different ages there are in a population. In theory, there will be more babies at the base of the ‘pyramid’ than elderly people at the top!
What do the pyramids tell us?• The shape of a population pyramid gives us information about birth and death rates as well as life expectancy.• A population pyramid tells us how many dependants there are living in an area. There are two groups of dependants; young dependants (aged below 15) and elderly dependants (aged over 65).• Those of working age are classed as economically active Dependants rely upon the economically active for economic support.• Many ELDCs have a high number of young dependants, whilst many EMDCs have a growing number of elderly dependants.
Progressive pyramid – A Pyramid witha high birth rate and a high death rate.
Regressive pyramid – A declining birth rate and a low mortality rate.
Stationary pyramid – A population pyramid showing an unchanging pattern of fertility and mortality.
By studying a succession of pyramids from a country over different years, we can notice and interpret changes that can happen. This is Italy’s population from 2000 and predicted to 2050. What do you noticehappening? Describe the shapes and explain any changes.
In the exam you may be asked to interpret a population pyramid, with a question such as:Look at the diagram showing the projected population structure of Italy in 2025 and describe the main features of the structure.
A good answer to this question would include the following information:• The largest age groups in Italy are 50-54 and 55-59, where there are almost five million people in each group.• There are much smaller numbers in the 0-4 and 5-9 groups, with around two million people in each group.• There are more than one million males and one million females in all age groups up to 75-79. In the age groups beyond this, there are more females than males.• Boost your revision by looking again at the population pyramid. Can you suggest reasons for the pattern it shows? And can you explain the consequences of the population structure?
Impact of a changing population The increased population of older people means that:• there is an increased demand for health and social care• it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to provide satisfactory pensions, which are ultimately funded by the working population The reduced numbers of babies and children means that:• there is less need for schools and school teachers• industries which provide products for children - for example pram manufacturers - may suffer• in the longer term, companies may have difficulty recruiting youthful workers
Possible Solutions• These are some of the issues, but are there any solutions? A statement from an MSP that “Scots should be paid to breed” suggests that the use of financial incentives is one possible solution. The Singapore government has launched a pro-natalist campaign, and hopes to increase the birth rate by: o giving financial inducements for third children o giving paid maternity leave o providing state-funded child care centres• Whether these incentives would make any difference in Western Europe is debatable. The alternative option, tried in a number of countries experiencing a labour shortage, is to encourage immigration.
The Demographic Transition ModelPopulation changes over time can be shown using aDemographic Transition Model (DTM).The key here is the word transition – as every country’spopulation goes through periods of fluctuation, increaseand decrease over the long term.It is also important to remember that this a model – so itonly gives us a general idea/pattern about what wewould expect to see in terms of a country’s development.
Stage 1: High Fluctuating• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating.Reasons:• Birth Rate is high as a result of:• Lack of family planning• High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the bank• Need for workers in agriculture• Religious beliefs• Children as economic assets• Death Rate is high because of:• High levels of disease• Famine• Lack of clean water and sanitation• Lack of health care• War• Competition for food from predators such as rats• Lack of education• Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (ELDCs) today.
Stage 2: Early Expanding• Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.Reasons:• Death Rate is falling as a result of:• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)• Improved sanitation• Improved food production and storage• Improved transport for food• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates• Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Stage 3: Late Expanding• Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.Reasons:• Family planning available• Lower Infant Mortality Rate• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers• Increased standard of living• Changing status of women• Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil
Stage 4: Low Fluctuating• Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady.• NOW YOU THINK OF SOME REASONS WHY STAGE 4 IS LIKE THIS!!!• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
Problems/Anomalies with the DTM Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:1 Birth rates in several EMDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many ELDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.
3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘onechild’ policy.4 The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries.5 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.
Censuses• Information about a population is often collected by a census• Most countries update their census every 10 years• It is a legal requirement in the UK for each household to complete the census form and accurately disclose information
The first known census was taken by theBabylonians (from an area that is nowNorthern Iraq) in 3800 BC, over 5000years ago!Records suggest that it was taken everysix or seven years and counted thenumber of people and livestock, as wellas quantities of butter, honey, milk, wooland vegetables.
So, how does it work?• Since 1801, every ten years the nation has set aside one day for the census - a count of all people and households. It is the most complete source of information about the population that we have. The latest census was held on Sunday 29 April 2001.• Every effort is made to include everyone, and that is why the census is so important. It is the only survey which provides a detailed picture of the entire population, and is unique because it covers everyone at the same time and asks the same core questions everywhere. This makes it easy to compare different parts of the country.
• The information the census provides allows central and local government, health authorities and many other organisations to target their resources more effectively and to plan housing, education, health and transport services for years to come.• In England and Wales, the census is planned and carried out by the Office for National Statistics. Elsewhere in the UK, responsibility lies with the General Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
What is asked in a census?• No. of males & females• No. and age of residents in household• No. of rooms in household• Country of birth of residents and languages spoken• Occupation of residents• How people get to work
DISCUSS:How does the Government benefit fromhaving census data?Describe and explain your findings.
Strange but true...The 2001 census was the first year in which thegovernment asked about religion. Perhaps encouragedby a hoax chain letter that started in New Zealand,390,000 people entered their religion as Jedi Knight(more than Sikhs, Buddhists or Jews), with some areasregistering up to 2.6% of people as "Jedi".It was wrongly implied in emails that stating "Jedi" onthe form would cause it to become an "officialreligion". No such thing exists in the United Kingdom.However, the director of reporting and analysis at theONS stated that it may have helped with the collectionprocess as it encouraged young people, who are oftenmissed, to complete forms!
Problems with taking censuses• Some countries have problems with either taking an accurate census or conducting a census altogether• Vital Statistics (registration of births, marriages and deaths) can be used instead to monitor population change• These can be up-to-date but aren’t as detailed whilst some countries would still encounter problems with accuracy from this information
A rich source of information...o The Census collected information about people, households and their housing.o The information from the forms was processed to produce a database from which results are drawn - information about identifiable individuals is never released.o They are presented either as simple counts, such as the number of young children, or as figures which relate one topic to another, such as the number of children in one parent families.o The linking of topics is one of the most valuable features of a Census.o Most figures are about the people who live in an area, but others are about people who work in an area or about migrants from an area.
What does the Census tell us?The last census in Scotland took place in 2001.You can view this data at the SCROL (Scotland’s Census Results Online) website:http://www.scrol.gov.uk/scrol/common/home.jsp