we_NATO - 2.0 Challenges from a system theory point of view

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Peter Kruse's presentation at an internal NATO workshop .... getting ready for web 2.0!

Peter Kruse's presentation at an internal NATO workshop .... getting ready for web 2.0!

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  • 1. The Network Challenge:Some arguments to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio ofopen communication and participation via InternetProf. Dr. Peter Kruse 1
  • 2. THE NETWORK CHALLENGEshort introduction 2
  • 3. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE short introductionFor more than 30 years working on network dynamics and collective intelligence: How can people and computers be connected established in October 2006 so that – collectively – they act more intelligently than any individuals, groups or computers Massachusetts Institute of Technology have ever done before? 3
  • 4. Power shift enforced by network architectureExpectations provoked by network experienceCultural change necessary for network success 4
  • 5. Power shift enforced by network architectureExpectations provoked by network experienceCultural change necessary for network success 5
  • 6. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture connectivity self- organising by hyper network link involvement boom 2. 3. recurrent access boom excitations new 1.information medium Internet spontaneous activity of nodes 6
  • 7. THE NETWORK CHALLENGEminutes time people spend in the internet a day access boom involvement boom160 0. 1. 2. 3. KILLER APPLIKATION140 Broadcast Yourself to get120 information for free MOTIVE FOR ACTION to manage to leave to create100 exploding personal networks information traces together 80 1995 2000 2005 2010 7
  • 8. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture1. very high degree of connectivity2. critical level of spontaneous activity3. promotion of many recurrent excitations high probability of sudden autocatalytic boosts (avalanche effects, hypes) Coca Cola commercial 8
  • 9. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture Marshall Mc Luhan “15 minutes of fame” (Andy Warhol): Homeless guy with a striking radio voice 01 “detected” 2011 incidentally by a reporter at a street corner in Columbus, Ohio.“The Golden Voice” Ted Williams in 1 week > 12 million views 9
  • 10. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture Marshall Mc Luhan “15 minutes of fame” (Andy Warhol): Five musicians from Canada cover the hit 01 “Somebody 2012 that I used to know” playing together on only one guitar.The Group “Walk of the Earth” in 2 weeks > 35 million views 10
  • 11. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture new self-information Web 1.0 “new medium” “s-o network” Web 2.0 organising medium more linear dynamics non-linear dynamics network the impact of a contribution the impact of a contribution is a function of the amount is a function of the amount of activity invested by the of activity invested by the provider power shift prosumer the stronger the input the very small causes may have more intense is the effect surprisingly huge effects (presence and attention) (attraction and resonance) 11
  • 12. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture new self-information Web 1.0 “new medium” “s-o network” Web 2.0 organising medium linear dynamics non-linear dynamics network cause = effect cause ≠ effect 12
  • 13. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecturePeople have realised the power of resonance effects for political agenda setting: Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg first article on possible plagiarism ---- demission as German defence minister February 2011 hit by an avalanche March 2011 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 01. 13
  • 14. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture Listen to people: Without empathetic understanding of the mostly hidden beaten force fields of a tracks culture or a society it is impossible to predict emergence of resonance effects.Task is to analyse the implicit value systems of cultures and societies. 14
  • 15. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture connectivity self- organising by hyper no web 2.0-strategy network link PULL-PRINCIPLE empathy for value systems attraction and resonance PUSH-PRINCIPLE legend of viral marketing communication strategy new presence and attentioninformation medium Internet spontaneous activity of nodes 15
  • 16. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architectureThe Force: Volkswagen commercial 32.817 comments 190.484 I like it no. 3 top scorer cars & vehicles49.064.539 views (until 23.01.2012) 16
  • 17. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architecture www.vwdarkside.com500 thousand instead of 50 millions 17
  • 18. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architectureSuccess principles to deal with the network challenge: 1The behaviour of self-organised networks is far toocomplex to be used as strategic communication tool.Network dynamics can not be predicted or controlled.To be part of an open network communication is away to improve perception and understanding of thecultural force fields enabling resonance (push to pull). 18
  • 19. Power shift enforced by network architectureExpectations provoked by network experienceCultural change necessary for network success 19
  • 20. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience Why put people so much hope in Internet? complexity by networking exceeding individual capacities balancing(globalisation) social frictions sustainability polarisation by increasing conflicts of interest shortage of resources (limits to growth) Why is collective intelligence a buzz word? 20
  • 21. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceJanuary 2011 January 2011CEOs and complexity Confronting complexityCEOs agree: Executives say:Complexity Improving exchangeis the biggest of information is thechallenge today. number one action. Study based on interviews with 1.400 Senior executives in 22 countries 21
  • 22. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience representative democracy complexity by networking political parties ill-defined(globalisation) groups of experts basis for lobbyists decisions complexity direct trap democracy stakeholders citizens’ initiatives polarisation by state residents shortage of resources politics (limits to growth) Why is collective intelligence a buzz word? 22
  • 23. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience representative democracy complexity by networking political parties hope for(globalisation) groups of experts Liquid collective lobbyists Democracy intelligence complexity direct trap democracy stakeholders citizens’ initiatives polarisation by state residents shortage of resources politics (limits to growth) Why is collective intelligence a buzz word? 23
  • 24. THE NETWORK CHALLENGEExpectations provoked by network experience Time Magazine person of the year December 2006: collective intelligence of people in Web 2.0 The end of the “Great Man” theory of history. 24
  • 25. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience impact of decisions complexity by networking decision maker ill-defined(globalisation) management basis for leaders decisions complexity level of information trap staff customers polarisation by cooperation partners shortage of resourcesbusiness (limits to growth) Why is collective intelligence a buzz word? 25
  • 26. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience impact of decisions complexity by networking decision maker hope for(globalisation) management implementing collective leaders enterprise 2.0 collaborative intelligence software complexity level of information trap staff customers polarisation by cooperation partners shortage of resourcesbusiness (limits to growth) Why is collective intelligence a buzz word? 26
  • 27. THE NETWORK CHALLENGEExpectations provoked by network experience McKinsey 2011 27
  • 28. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE reticular system level of alertness activationbrain as natures complexitybest example for reduction byan intelligent 3 interactingnetwork How to create subsystems collective intelligence ? evaluation association decision making creative connections limbic system cortical system 28
  • 29. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE reticular system level of alertness activation non-linear avalanche dynamics effect, hypesInternet ? How to create collective intelligence ? evaluation association decision making creative connections limbic system cortical system 29
  • 30. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE reticular system level of alertness activation non-linear avalanche dynamics effect, hypesInternet ? How to create hyperlink collective intelligence ? architecture evaluation association decision making creative connections limbic system connectivity cortical system 30
  • 31. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE reticular system level of alertness activation non-linear avalanche dynamics effect, hypesInternet ? problem How to create hyperlink of semantics collective intelligence ? architecture evaluation association decision making creative connections limbic system connectivity cortical system 31
  • 32. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experience cortical system Berlitz Schoolpattern formation fast changing ideasdecision making sustainable values limbic system turning mask 32
  • 33. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceWhy the Internet has an evaluation problem:Following the definition of Marshall McLuhanthe Internet is a “cool” medium which needsa lot of effort on the part of the users todetermine meaning (ill-defined context):hyperlink architecture and lack of consensusin using words (taxonomy, social tagging). 33
  • 34. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceconcept dilemma of social tagging A CAR DRIVING FUN TRIP NATUREconcept same tags B CAR VACATION TRIP TRIP NATUREconcept different concepts C CAR ECO-BALANCE TRIP NATURE 34
  • 35. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceWhy the Internet has an evaluation problem:Any statistical evaluation procedure like themeasurement on basis of standardisedscales is subject to the jury-theorem postedby Marquis de Condorcet (1743 - 1794):to get proper results the mean rating hasto be above chance (distributed knowledge). 35
  • 36. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experiencerelevance discourse qualitative distributed knowledge evaluation and shared culture Wisdom of the Crowd limited mean rating expert above chance quantitative networks < chance evaluation problem of semantics Condorcet-Jury-Theorem quantity 36
  • 37. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceTasks to be solved by an open platform:(realistic expectations)on national and international level:• agenda setting and agitation• activation of democratic majorities• synchronisation of protest movements• understanding social-cultural dynamics• involvement in ordinary decision making 37
  • 38. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Expectations provoked by network experienceTasks not to be solved by an open platform:(unrealistic expectations)on national and international level:• production of innovative solutions• elaboration of sophisticated content• involvement in complex decision makingtasks only possible in limited expert networks 38
  • 39. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE reticular system level of alertness activation non-linear avalanche dynamics effect, hypes problem How to create hyperlinkof semantics collective intelligence ? architecture evaluation association decision making creative connections limbic system connectivity cortical system 39
  • 40. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Power shift enforced by network architectureSuccess principles to deal with the network challenge: 2In open networks like the Internet the realisation ofcollective intelligence is strongly limited by loss oforiginal context (semantic problem, “cool” medium).To save participation from triviality only topics shouldbe addressed where a sufficient level of distributedknowledge and a minimum cultural fit is guaranteed. 40
  • 41. Power shift enforced by network architectureExpectations provoked by network experienceCultural change necessary for network success 41
  • 42. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Cultural change necessary for network successWilliam Ross Ashby (1899 – 1992) 1956 An introduction to Cybernetics: variety absorbs variety Ashby’s Law of requisite varietyPrinciples of the self-organizing to handle networkdynamic systems (1947) dynamics it is necessary to act like a dynamic network 42
  • 43. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Cultural change necessary for network successCulture of organisations has to be flexible enough to change between two modes: hierarchy steering and regulation self- organisation network 43
  • 44. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Cultural change necessary for network successHIERARCHY NETWORK centralised organisation decentralised organisation command and control tolerance and trust steering, regulation self-organisation confidentiality transparency STRENGTHS cultural change STRENGTHS clear orientation fast adaptability powerful realization creative invention SCOPE SCOPE lower complexity higher complexity mandate to stabilise permission to de-stabilise 44
  • 45. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE next practice entrepreneurship PULLINSPIRATION NETWORKING soft facts hard factspeople/staff leadership excellence organisation soft facts hard facts COACHING OPTIMISATION PUSH management best practice 45
  • 46. THE NETWORK CHALLENGE Cultural change necessary for network successSuccess principles to deal with the network challenge: 3The unrestricted communication in open networks isvery fast in detecting and very rigorous in criticisingmismatch between published intentions and reality.Before starting an new platform for participation anyorganisation should reflect on own readiness to adaptto the implicit value system of networks (authenticity). 46
  • 47. THE NETWORK CHALLENGEnextpractice GmbHSchuppen 2Hoerneckestraße 25-31D-28217 BremenTel. +49 (0)421-3355880Fax. +49 (0)421-3355830office@nextpractice.dewww.nextpractice.de 47