Euromonitor emerging markets

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Euromonitor Emerging Markets 2010

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Euromonitor emerging markets

  1. 1. Emerging Market Consumers: A comparative study of Latin America and Asia-Pacific Euromonitor International ESOMAR Latin America 2010
  2. 2. Table of Contents Emerging markets and the global recession Demographic dynamics Income inequality and the rise of the middle class Spending priorities Consumers in 2010 and beyond
  3. 3. Emerging markets and the global recession Image for 2010
  4. 4. 2010: Recovery is driven by emerging markets Real GDP growth: % growth over previous period, annualised 11 Emerging economies % real GDP growth over previous 6 World 2009: 89 quarter, annualized 2010: 17 Advanced economies Number of countries 1 expected to see negative real GDP 2007Q2 2008Q1 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 growth -4 -9 Source: IMF
  5. 5. Winners and losers Annual % real GDP growth in G20: 2009-2010 China India Indonesia Brazil Saudi Arabia Mexico Turkey Russia South Korea USA Canada Australia South Africa Japan Argentina Germany France United Kingdom EU-27 Italy -10.0 -5.0 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 2009 2010 Source: IMF 5
  6. 6. Latin America Recovery in Latin America is not homogenous across countries. Commodity-exporting countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru) are expected to perform better in the region, while commodity importers face a slower recovery. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Argentina 1.2 1.8 1.3 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 na Brazil 1.8 1.2 1.4 -3.4 -1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 Chile 1.8 1.9 -1.3 -2 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 na Colombia -0.4 0.6 0.2 -1.3 0.1 0.8 0.2 na Mexico 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -6.9 0.3 2.5 2.0 Source: National statistics Note: Data are seasonally adjusted
  7. 7. Brazil Selected macro-economic indicators: Brazil’s economy suffered a contraction 2010-2011 in 2009, largely as a result of slowing global demand for Brazilian exports, 2010 2011 particularly of raw commodities. 12 Nonetheless, the economy has 9.9 rebounded owing to the strong capital 10 inflows and good policy management 8.6 by the government. 8 6 The unemployment rate in Brazil 4.7 4.5 4.1 dropped to 6.8% in December 2009 4 3.7 returning to the same level recorded in December 2008. 2 Growth of private consumption fell 0 Real GDP Inflation Unemployment during 2009, but is supported by low Growth Rate borrowing costs, tax cuts and aggressive government spending. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
  8. 8. Mexico Selected macro-economic indicators: The recession in Mexico ended in Q3 2010-2011 2009. This was a reflection of the improvement in industry and services 2010 2011 caused by the revival of external and 7 domestic demand. 6.3 6 5.7 Swine flu alone cost the country more 5 4.7 than US$2 billion. The recession in the 4.0 4 3.5 USA led to a sharp drop in exports and remittances and the recovery is 3.0 3 dependent on the strength of the US manufacturing sector. 2 1 Consumer spending fell by 8.0% in 2009 owing to tighter credit, a drop in 0 Real GDP Inflation Unemployment wages and remittances. Spending Growth Rate should begin to rise again in 2010, increasing by 1.8%. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
  9. 9. Asia Pacific Asia recovered from the downturn faster than other regions owing to the highly effective policy responses taken by governments. While deflationary pressures and a strong yen could stifle Japan's recovery, China continues to display a strong recovery backed by robust growth in private demand. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 China 10.6 10.1 9.0 6.8 6.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 India 2.0 0.8 2.2 -0.3 1.4 2.5 3.0 na Indonesia 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 South Korea 1.1 0.4 0.2 -5.1 0.1 2.6 3.2 0.2 Vietnam 7.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 7.4 Source: National statistics Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Data for China and Vietnam are year-on-year and are not seasonally adjusted
  10. 10. China Selected macro-economic indicators: China’s growth continues to remain 2010-2011 buoyant aided by a strong rebound of 2010 2011 exports, robust growth in private demand and continued increases in 12 foreign investments. 10.0 9.7 10 Domestic spending is driven by the 8 stimulus package and the relaxation of restrictions on bank lending. 6 4.5 4.5 Concerns about asset price bubbles 4 3.0 3.5 still persist. Timely monetary tightening will not only help sustain growth but 2 also avoid overheating. 0 Real GDP Inflation Unemployment Growth Rate Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
  11. 11. Indonesia Selected macro-economic indicators: Indonesia's economy performed better 2010-2011 than that of many other large Asian 2010 2011 countries in 2009 thanks to its large 10 9.4 domestic market and relatively modest 9.1 dependence on exports. The 9 government has been introducing a 8 range of more liberal policies to boost 7 6.2 economic activity, investment and 6 5.4 employment. 4.8 5.0 5 4  Unemployment fell to 7.9% at the 3 end of 2009 – the lowest rate in nine years. 2 1  Good harvests have boosted farm 0 Real GDP Inflation Unemployment incomes and commodity exporters Growth Rate are benefiting from the surge in China's infrastructure investment. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics
  12. 12. Demographic dynamics Demographic dynamics
  13. 13. A tale of two regions Latin Asia- America Pacific
  14. 14. Stark differences in major markets China 2010 Brazil 1.3 billion Total population 195 million 38.8 years Median age 28.8 years 16.4% % aged 0-14 25.6% 9.7% % aged 65+ 6.8% 1.8 Fertility rate 1.8 Shanghai - 12.0 million Largest city Sao Paulo – 11.4 million Source: UN/National statistics
  15. 15. Income inequality and the rise of the middle class
  16. 16. Fundamental differences in income distribution between the two regions Households with an annual income over Average US$15,000: household Asia-Pacific: income: 7.3% Asia Pacific: Latin America: Gini Index US$11,159 33.2% Asia Pacific: Latin America: 0.413 US$16,254 Latin America: 0.500 Source: National statistics
  17. 17. Income inequality in Latin America impacts on the size of the middle class Middle class households: 2009 40% % of households with an income between 34% 75% and 125% of the median income 35% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 24% 24% 23% 23% 25% 22% 21% 20% 19% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: National statistics
  18. 18. It also means the Latin American rich are richer than the Asia-Pacific rich Average disposable income of decile 10 households: 2009 Venezuela Brazil Taiwan South Korea Mexico Malaysia Chile Peru Colombia Argentina Ecuador Azerbaijan Kazakhstan China Thailand Turkmenistan Philippines Bolivia Pakistan Indonesia India Vietnam - 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 US$ per household Source: National statistics
  19. 19. With some startling extremes The ratio of a decile 10 income to a decile 1 income: 2009 Brazil Colombia Peru Ecuador China Malaysia Philippines Bolivia Thailand Argentina Turkmenistan Mexico Venezuela Vietnam India South Korea Indonesia Chile Taiwan Azerbaijan Pakistan Kazakhstan - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Source: National statistics
  20. 20. Spending priorities
  21. 21. Income inequality has a huge impact on spending patterns Average spending of a decile 5 household: 2009 Necessities Discretionary spending 12,000  A middle income household in Latin America spends 44% more than 10,000 the equivalent household in US$ per household Emerging Asia 8,000 6,000  Despite this, the proportion of 4,000 budget devoted to necessities is 49% 2,000 52% similar: 49% in Latin America and 52% in Emerging Asia - Latin America Emerging Asia Source: National statistics
  22. 22. How does the spending of the rich compare? Average expenditure of a decile 10 household: 2009 100% Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 90% Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages % of total household expenditure 80% Miscellaneous Goods & Services 70% Hotels & Catering 60% Education 50% Leisure & Recreation 40% Communications 30% Transport 20% Health Goods & Medical Services 10% Household Goods & Services 0% Housing China Brazil Clothing & Footwear Source: National statistics
  23. 23. And the poor? Average expenditure of a decile 1 household: 2009 100% Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 90% Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages % of total household expenditure 80% Miscellaneous Goods & Services Hotels & Catering 70% Education Leisure & Recreation 60% Communications 50% Transport Health Goods & Medical Services 40% Household Goods & Services 30% Housing Clothing & Footwear 20% 10% 0% China Brazil Source: National statistics
  24. 24. Consumers in 2010 and beyond
  25. 25. Technology & Communications
  26. 26. Emerging markets increasingly plugged in Internet Users 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 Asia Pacific 800000 Latin America 600000 400000 200000 0 2010 2015 2020
  27. 27. Staying connected on the go Mobile Phone Subscriptions 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 Asia Pacific 2000000 Latin America 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2010 2015 2020
  28. 28. Health & Wellness
  29. 29. Better living through nutrition Health & Wellness China - RMB mn 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2009 2014
  30. 30. Better living through nutrition Health & Wellness Brazil - R$ mn 75000 50000 25000 0 2009 2014
  31. 31. Focus on prevention and dietary gaps Vitamins and Dietary Supplements Vitamins and Dietary Supplements RMB mn Rs mn 80000 40000 70000 35000 60000 30000 50000 25000 40000 2009 20000 2009 30000 2014 15000 2014 20000 10000 10000 5000 0 0 China India
  32. 32. Focus on prevention and dietary gaps Vitamins and Dietary Supplements Vitamins and Dietary Supplements R$ mn Mx$ mn 3000 9800 9600 2500 9400 2000 9200 1500 2009 9000 2009 2014 8800 2014 1000 8600 500 8400 0 8200 Brazil Mexico
  33. 33. Eco-Awareness
  34. 34. Translating awareness into sales  Competitive pricing  Packaging redesign  Concentrated products  Communicating benefits
  35. 35. Retail evolution
  36. 36. Expansion of chained retailing – Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014 Hypermarkets 4048 6786 Supermarkets 124477 154445 Discounters 1043 1545 Small Grocery Retailers 11349185 11608480 Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists 3747283 3803238
  37. 37. Expansion of chained retailing– Latin America Latin America Outlets 2009 Outlets 2014 Hypermarkets 1770 2129 Supermarkets 9940 11111 Discounters 21636 22554 Small Grocery Retailers 1592974 1658011 Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists 395421 412058
  38. 38. Internet retailing: a new frontier for shoppers 1200 04-09 Percentage Value Growth Argentina 1000 India 800 Brazil 600 Mexico 400 China 200 0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 09-14 Percentage Value Growth
  39. 39. Q&A Mary.Tabion@Euromonitorintl.com EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL

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