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This presentation comes from a seminar about work carried out in the scope of the Global Futures for Agriculture and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project. It was held on 24 April, 2014 at the International Potato Center (CIP) in Lima, Peru.
Global Futures for Agriculture and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) is a multi-center CGIAR research collaboration with the objective of developing and applying an integrated simulation modeling framework for the comprehensive analysis of trends and technology impacts in the CGIAR mandate crops and systems.
The core component of the modeling framework is the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), an economic partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. IMPACT has the capability of generating forward looking global analyses of supply, demand, prices and trade of 56 agricultural commodities in 320 geographic regions, taking into account major drivers like economic growth, population dynamics, and climate change. For the ex ante assessment of the impact of new crop technologies, the model can be linked to a geospatial crop modeling system which, via the process of “virtual crop modeling”, allows the estimation of productivity effects under alternate scenarios of climate change.
The objective of the seminar was to introduce the GFSF project to the CIP audience, to inform about the work carried out at CIP under the umbrella of the project over the past four years, and to present an outlook on future project activities. Following an introduction to the analytical approach, examples of applications of the modeling framework are given. These applications include foresight studies of crop sector development, ex ante modeling of the impacts of promising technologies for potato production based on expert opinion, and integrated bio-economic modeling of improved potato technologies.
It is argued that the approach developed and applied by GFSF represents a powerful tool to produce foresight studies and inform about the future development of potato, sweetpotato and other root, tubers and bananas (RTB) crop sectors. Its advantages include a comprehensive systems approach which takes into account major driving forces of the development of the agricultural sector, natural resources and climate change in a multi-crop, multi-country setting as well as its ability to analyze aspects of food security.