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Automotive Focus Group Thailand
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment
Risk Rating for Thailand
Friday 12 November 20...
1.1 Thailand ranking by GDP, Population and Per Capita GDP
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Da...
Source: International Monetary Fund Database
(US$ with forecasts from 2010)
US$
China
Thailand
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Autom...
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 1: ...
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 1: ...
Sources: World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report s
Note:
•  Thailand slipping for past 10 years
•  Vietnam, In...
Source: Transparency International Survey 2010
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia
Laos
Mya...
Sources: UNDP Human Development Index 2009, 2010
(ranking among 169 countries)
•  Human Development emphasizes education, ...
Sources: World Economic Forum: 2010-2011
Note:
•  Main defects relate to politics and government
•  Education and work eth...
Political stability
Accountability
Corruption control
Rule of law
Gov’t effectiveness
Regulatory Quality
Scores
(out of 10...
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 3. ...
3.2 Net Flow of Foreign Direct Investment (billion baht)
Source: Bank of Thailand
Baht billion
Note: Figures relate to all...
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 3. ...
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 3. Thailand Economy: pres...
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand
Part 3. ...
Stock Exchange Index
Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand
Index
April 1975 = 100
(SET Index at month-end)
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov...
Foreign Trading on Stock Exchange of Thailand: Monthly Buy/Sale (Billion Baht)
Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand
Baht bil...
Source: Bank of Thailand
Baht
per US$
(Baht per US$)
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group
Opportunities and Challe...
Source: Bank of Thailand
US$ billion
(Oct)
(US$ billion reserves at year-end)
AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
Automotive Focus Group...
•  Risks at “Elite” Level:
  Transitions are not easy in Thailand
  Role of Privy Council has been a vital factor for st...
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Afg thailand 2011 11-12

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  1. 1. Automotive Focus Group Thailand Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Friday 12 November 2010 Royal Cliff Beach Hotel, Pattaya Christopher F. Bruton Dataconsult Ltd, Bangkok, Thailand (Tel: 662-233-5606/7, Fax: 662-236-8143, Email: chris@dataconsult.co.th)
  2. 2. 1.1 Thailand ranking by GDP, Population and Per Capita GDP Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, 2010 GDP (US$ billion 2010) (current prices) Population (million 2010) Per Capita GDP (US$) (current prices) 695.1 Note: •  Second largest economy (17.4% of ASEAN total) •  Fourth largest population (11.3% of ASEAN total) •  Fourth largest per capita GDP (54% above ASEAN average) Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Thailand AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Thailand 234.6 Thailand Total 1,800.5 600.3 3,000
  3. 3. Source: International Monetary Fund Database (US$ with forecasts from 2010) US$ China Thailand AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context 1.2 Thailand: GDP per capita, compared with China Note: China overtakes by 2012?
  4. 4. AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context 1.3 Thailand ranking for Ease of Doing Business Sources: World Bank: Doing Business Series, 2011 (ranking in 183 countries)
  5. 5. AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 1: Ease of doing business: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context 1.4 Rankings for Thailand and main ASEAN investment Competitors in 2011 Sources: World Bank: Ease of doing 2011 (ranking in 183 countries) Ease of doing business factors Thailand Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Protecting investors Trading across borders Dealing with construction permits 12 12 12 2 1 2 4 37 108 173 63 62 44 47 60 132 61 156 Registering property Enforcing contracts Closing a business 19 25 46 15 13 2 60 59 55 43 31 124 98 154 142 102 118 153 Getting credit Paying taxes Starting a business 72 91 95 6 4 4 1 23 113 15 124 100 116 130 155 128 124 156 Total ranking 19 1 21 78 121 148
  6. 6. Sources: World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report s Note: •  Thailand slipping for past 10 years •  Vietnam, Indonesia improving •  Malaysia, Singapore stable (ranking in 139 countries) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context 1.5 ASEAN Competitiveness rankings (2010/2011 compared with 2001/2006)
  7. 7. Source: Transparency International Survey 2010 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Laos Myanmar 9.2 (1) 4.4 (56) 3.5 (78) 2.8 (110) 2.7 (116) 2.4 (134) 2.1 (154) 2.1 (154) 1.4 (176) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context 1.6 Transparency: the perception of corruption Ranking among 176 countries shown in brackets Brunei 5.5 (38) Scores :
  8. 8. Sources: UNDP Human Development Index 2009, 2010 (ranking among 169 countries) •  Human Development emphasizes education, health, social development •  Only Singapore, Brunei and Thailand improved ratings •  Thailand a middle ranking country •  Poor education and health: biggest handicap to development Thailand AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 20102009 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand 1.7 ASEAN: Human development indicators Part 1: How Thailand rates in an ASEAN context
  9. 9. Sources: World Economic Forum: 2010-2011 Note: •  Main defects relate to politics and government •  Education and work ethic of workforce not major factors Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 2: Thailand Economic and Political Risk Factors 2.1 Thailand: Most problematic factors for doing business AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
  10. 10. Political stability Accountability Corruption control Rule of law Gov’t effectiveness Regulatory Quality Scores (out of 100) Source: World Bank: Aggregate Governance Indicators 2009 (354) (361) (366) (344) (334) (318) (318) (280) (261) (263) Notes: •  Thailand has enjoyed acceptable levels of government effectiveness, regulatory quality (hitherto also rule of law, but now declining) •  Corruption control, accountability declined but now stable •  Political stability now nearing anarchy (272)Total scores AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand 2.2 Governance factors in Thailand: 1996-2009 Part 2: Thailand Economic and Political Risk Factors
  11. 11. AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.1 Thailand: GDP Growth (constant prices) and inflation Sources: National Economic and Social Development Board (% change with 2010 forecast)% change
  12. 12. 3.2 Net Flow of Foreign Direct Investment (billion baht) Source: Bank of Thailand Baht billion Note: Figures relate to all foreign investment, BOI promoted or otherwise 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 (Baht billion inflow per full year) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook
  13. 13. AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.3 Thailand’s GDP and foreign trade Sources: National Economic and Social Development Board (US$ billion) US$ billion (forecast)
  14. 14. Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.4 Thailand’s principal export markets AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 (% of total exports) Source: Ministry of Commerce Note: •  East Asia 55% •  North America / W. Europe 20% ASEAN Other Taiwan S. Korea India Middle East Australia Hong Kong EU USA Japan China% % % % % % % % % % % %
  15. 15. AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.5 Foreign Tourist Arrivals / Hotel occupancy Sources: Department of Tourism, Ministry of Tourism and Sports (Hotel occupancy %) Million persons (9 months)
  16. 16. Stock Exchange Index Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand Index April 1975 = 100 (SET Index at month-end) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.6 Thailand Investment and Financial Flows Note: •  November 8 reach 1050 1050
  17. 17. Foreign Trading on Stock Exchange of Thailand: Monthly Buy/Sale (Billion Baht) Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand Baht billion 250 200 150 100 50 0 (Baht billion monthly total buy / sell transactions) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.7 Thailand Investment and Financial Flows
  18. 18. Source: Bank of Thailand Baht per US$ (Baht per US$) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.8 Baht Currency against US$: Year-end Exchange Rates
  19. 19. Source: Bank of Thailand US$ billion (Oct) (US$ billion reserves at year-end) AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10 Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 3. Thailand Economy: present situation and outlook 3.9 Thailand: International Reserves (year end figures)
  20. 20. •  Risks at “Elite” Level:   Transitions are not easy in Thailand   Role of Privy Council has been a vital factor for stability behind the scenes   Military are determined to maintain decisive role in politics   Constitutional amendments are unlikely to produce acceptable ground rules •  Risks at “Political Operational” Level:   Democrat Party: dissolved or not dissolved - either way will cause conflict   Democrat / Bhumjaithai coalition is heading for break-up   Transparency campaign mounted by National Anti-Corruption Commission and Chambers will add to instability   Election has been promised “sooner rather than later” by Prime Minister   Thaksin Shinawatra is now back on campaign trail •  Risks at “Social Evolution” Level:   Red Shirt / Yellow Shirt conflicts remain unresolved   National Reconciliation Campaign has been ineffective   No significant moves towards equal opportunities, closing of income gaps Automotive Focus Group Opportunities and Challenges: An Investment Risk Rating for Thailand Part 4: Thailand’s Challenges to Economic Progress 4.1 Political Risks Affecting Investment AFG Pattaya 12 Nov 10
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