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New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder
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New Energy Finance Presentation - Ken Bruder

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  • 1. UK Trade & Investment US Network Conference Implications of the Financial Crisis on Clean Energy Deployment Ken Bruder General Manager - Americas Miami, 20 th November 2008
  • 2. DISCLAIMER THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS DERIVED FROM PUBLIC SOURCES. INFORMATION USED IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY NEW ENERGY FINANCE. NEW ENERGY FINANCE MAKES NO GUARANTEE OF ITS ACCURACY AND COMPLETENESS AND IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ERRORS OF TRANSMISSION OF FACTUAL OR ANALYTICAL DATA, NOR IS IT LIABLE FOR DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF ANY PERSON’S RELIANCE UPON THIS INFORMATION. ANY OPINIONS IN THIS DOCUMENT CONSTITUTE THE PRESENT JUDGEMENT OF NEW ENERGY FINANCE, WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS DOCUMENT IS NEITHER AN OFFER TO SELL, PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY INVESTMENT NOR A SOLICITATION OF SUCH AN OFFER. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION.
  • 3. Global New Investment in Clean Energy, 2004 – 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in projects. Grossed up value based on disclosed deals. Accounts for 10% of global energy infrastructure spend Has remained fairly robust through credit crunch so far… Surged from low level by around 5x between 2004 and 2007 $148.4bn $92.6bn $58.7bn $33.4bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 58% Growth 76% Growth 60% Growth 4% Decline 2008e $142.0bn
  • 4. Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Index Values as of 04 November 2008; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 30 Dec 2002 NEX vs. AMEX Oil & Market Indices, 2003 - 2008
    • Triple Whammy:
    • Early stage
    • Capital hungry
    • Exposure to energy prices
  • 5. Public market transactions by financing type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance
  • 6. Total asset financing by type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
  • 7. Asset financing new build by region Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
  • 8. Oil Price, 1990 to 2030 (IEA forecast) Source: New Energy Finance; International Energy Agency
  • 9. Clean Energy & Climate Funds, October 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Region refers to the headquarters of the Fund Manager Total over $65bn Clean Energy Environmental & Climate Change
  • 10. President-elect Barack Obama’s position on clean energy
    • Supports 36bn gallon by 2022 Renewable Fuels Standard; would keep high tariff which prevents Brazilian ethanol import
    • Supports federal Renewable Portfolio Standard, has proposed 25% of power generation by 2025; voted in favour of extending Production Tax Credit/ Investment Tax Credit (now passed)
    • Supports national cap-and-trade system; proposed returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 via auction-based carbon system that would auction 100% of credits
    • Would invest $150bn over 10 years in clean energy, including electric vehicles, clean coal and renewable power
    • Has threatened to ban conventional coal plants; has not ruled out development of new nuclear plants
    “ Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy ... That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office, assuming obviously that we have done enough to just stabilize the immediate economic situation.”
  • 11. VCPE for companies by financing type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
  • 12. VCPE new investment by sector Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
  • 13. Venture capital only by region Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
  • 14. The world is changing
    • From
          • Supply-chain constrained
          • Turbine shortage
          • Silicon shortage
          • Biofuels broken
          • Infinite availability of finance
          • Limited focus on quality
          • US largely disengaged
    • To
          • Finance constrained
          • Turbine surplus
          • Silicon surplus
          • New start for biofuels
          • Consolidation
          • Focus on good projects, technologies, teams
          • US engaged
  • 15. Wind turbine supply lead times: months Source: New Energy Finance Notes : Trend line reflects 30point rolling average beginning in April 2001. Lead times are based on expected start of delivery, less date of contract signed. April 2001-March 2008
  • 16. Offshore wind projects by location and status, YE 2007 Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Announced/planned Financed/under-construction Commissioned
  • 17. Estimated new solar silicon production, 2006-2011: tonnes Source: New Energy Finance Note: Assumptions and Tier assignment described in Appendix I: Supply methodology.
  • 18. Median forward price of polysilicon for delivery 2008-2015 2007-2008 contracts, $/kg Source: New Energy Finance Silicon Price Survey Note: Hyperpure and solar-grade silicon have been aggregated. Three separate contract duration has also been aggregated for non-Participant report. Approximately half of these contracts are inflation-adjusted, half fixed.
  • 19. 2006 US biofuels bull run Source: New Energy Finance 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 VC/PE, Public Markets and Asset Finance only. Excludes re-investment adjustment. Grossed up value based on disclosed deals
  • 20. Thank you! Ken Bruder General Manager - Americas [email_address] +1 212 744 1988

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