UK Trade & Investment US Network Conference Implications of the Financial Crisis on Clean Energy Deployment Ken Bruder General Manager - Americas Miami, 20 th November 2008
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Global New Investment in Clean Energy, 2004 – 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in projects. Grossed up value based on disclosed deals. Accounts for 10% of global energy infrastructure spend Has remained fairly robust through credit crunch so far… Surged from low level by around 5x between 2004 and 2007 $148.4bn $92.6bn $58.7bn $33.4bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 58% Growth 76% Growth 60% Growth 4% Decline 2008e $142.0bn
Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Index Values as of 04 November 2008; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 30 Dec 2002 NEX vs. AMEX Oil & Market Indices, 2003 - 2008
Exposure to energy prices
Public market transactions by financing type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance
Total asset financing by type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
Asset financing new build by region Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
Oil Price, 1990 to 2030 (IEA forecast) Source: New Energy Finance; International Energy Agency
Clean Energy & Climate Funds, October 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Region refers to the headquarters of the Fund Manager Total over $65bn Clean Energy Environmental & Climate Change
President-elect Barack Obama’s position on clean energy
Supports 36bn gallon by 2022 Renewable Fuels Standard; would keep high tariff which prevents Brazilian ethanol import
Supports federal Renewable Portfolio Standard, has proposed 25% of power generation by 2025; voted in favour of extending Production Tax Credit/ Investment Tax Credit (now passed)
Supports national cap-and-trade system; proposed returning emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 via auction-based carbon system that would auction 100% of credits
Would invest $150bn over 10 years in clean energy, including electric vehicles, clean coal and renewable power
Has threatened to ban conventional coal plants; has not ruled out development of new nuclear plants
“ Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy ... That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office, assuming obviously that we have done enough to just stabilize the immediate economic situation.”
VCPE for companies by financing type Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
VCPE new investment by sector Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
Venture capital only by region Q1 2004 – Q3 2008 Source: New Energy Finance Grossed up values based on disclosed deals.
Wind turbine supply lead times: months Source: New Energy Finance Notes : Trend line reflects 30point rolling average beginning in April 2001. Lead times are based on expected start of delivery, less date of contract signed. April 2001-March 2008
Offshore wind projects by location and status, YE 2007 Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Announced/planned Financed/under-construction Commissioned
Estimated new solar silicon production, 2006-2011: tonnes Source: New Energy Finance Note: Assumptions and Tier assignment described in Appendix I: Supply methodology.
Median forward price of polysilicon for delivery 2008-2015 2007-2008 contracts, $/kg Source: New Energy Finance Silicon Price Survey Note: Hyperpure and solar-grade silicon have been aggregated. Three separate contract duration has also been aggregated for non-Participant report. Approximately half of these contracts are inflation-adjusted, half fixed.
2006 US biofuels bull run Source: New Energy Finance 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 VC/PE, Public Markets and Asset Finance only. Excludes re-investment adjustment. Grossed up value based on disclosed deals
Thank you! Ken Bruder General Manager - Americas [email_address] +1 212 744 1988