Global banking activities

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Global banking activities

  1. 1. Bank Management, 5th edition. Management Timothy W. Koch and S. Scott MacDonald Copyright © 2003 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning GLOBAL BANKING ACTIVITIES Chapter 21
  2. 2. Global banking business  One clear trend in the evolution of financial institutions and markets is the expansion of activities across national boundaries.  Technology has made it possible to conduct business around the world with relative ease and minimal cost.  Producers recognize that export markets are as important as domestic markets, and that the range of competitors includes both domestic and foreign operations.
  3. 3. Global banking activities …involve both traditional commercial banking and investment banking operations. U.S. commercial banks now accept deposits, make loans, provide letters of credit, trade bonds and foreign exchange, and underwrite debt and equity securities in dollars and other currencies.  With the globalization of financial markets, all firms compete directly with other major commercial and investment banks throughout the world.  Foreign banks offer the same products and services denominated in their domestic currencies and in U.S. dollars.  Still, it was not always this way. 
  4. 4. U.S. banks, although a dominant player in some world markets, have not been considered “large” by international standards  Restrictive branching laws,  Restrictions on the types of activities U.S. banks could engage in, and  Other regulatory factors generally meant that U.S. banks were greater in number, but smaller in size.
  5. 5. U.S. banks, although a dominant player in some world markets, have not been considered “large” by international standards. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 17 26 Company Name Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., Tokyo, Japan Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt, Germany Credit Agricole Mutual, Paris, France (2) Credit Suisse Group, Zurich, Switzerland (1) Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Ltd., Tokyo, Japan Fuji Bank Ltd., Tokyo, Japan Sanwa Bank Ltd., Osaka, Japan Sumitomo Bank Ltd., Osaka, Japan Sakura Bank Ltd., Tokyo, Japan HSBC Holdings, Plc., London, United Kingdom Chase Manhattan Corp., New York, United States Citicorp, New York, United States (b) 12/31/1996 $648,161.00 575,072.00 479,963.00 463,751.40 434,115.00 432,992.00 427,689.00 426,103.00 423,017.00 404,979.00 333,777.00 278,941.00 Billions of dollars Source: The AmericanBanker: http://www.americanbanker.com.
  6. 6. By the end of the 20th century, many factors had changed in the U.S. banking system.  The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 effectively eliminated interstate branching restrictions in the U.S. such that:  by early 1994, there were 10 U.S. banks with 30 interstate branches.  by June 2001, there were 288 U.S. banks with 19,298 interstate branches.  U.S. banks were also hampered in their ability to compete internationally by the Glass-Steagall Act, which effectively separated commercial banking from investment banking.  As such, U.S. commercial banks essentially provided two products: loans and FDIC-insured deposits.  In November 1999, the U.S. Congress passed the GrammLeach-Bliley Act, which allowed U.S. banks to fully compete with the largest global diversified financial companies by offering the same broad range of products.  The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 repealed restrictions on banks affiliating with securities firms and modified portions of the Bank Holding Company Act to allow affiliations between banks and insurance underwriters.
  7. 7. By the end of 2000, the largest banking company in the world was Citigroup at just under one-trillion dollars and three of the largest ten banking companies in the world were U.S. banks.
  8. 8. The merger between Citicorp and Travelers created Citigroup, the first diversified financial services company in the U.S.  The merger, however, was not completely permissible at the time it was approved under provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act.   The passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, made this merger permissible and thereby allowed Citigroup to legally be the world’s largest banking company. Citigroup formed a financial holding company under the provisions of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and became one of the first integrated financial services companies engaged in investment services, asset management, life insurance and property casualty insurance, and consumer lending.  Its operating companies include Salomon Smith Barney, Salomon Smith Barney Asset Management, Travelers Life & Annuity, Primerica Financial Services, Travelers Property Casualty Corp., and Commercial Credit.
  9. 9. Today, the product offerings of Citigroup are similar to that of Deutsche Bank in Germany  Prior to the merger between Citibank and Travelers, however, Citibank’s product line was more limited.  Outside the U.S., Citibank was able to offer a diversified set of products using an Edge Act corporation.  Edge Act corporations are domestic subsidiaries of banking organizations chartered by the Federal Reserve.   All “Edges” are located in the United States and may be established by U.S. or foreign banks and bank holding companies, but are limited to activities involving foreign customers. They can establish overseas branches and international banking facilities (IBFs) and own foreign subsidiaries.
  10. 10. 60.0% 10.0% 55.0% 5.0% 50.0% 0.0% Domestic total assets Foreign owned total assets 20 01 15.0% 19 99 65.0% 19 97 20.0% 19 95 70.0% 19 93 25.0% 19 91 75.0% 19 89 30.0% 19 87 80.0% 19 85 35.0% 19 83 85.0% 19 79 19 81 40.0% 19 77 90.0% 19 75 45.0% 19 73 50.0% 95.0% Percent of total domestic 100.0% Domestic total deposits Foreign owned total deposits Percent of total foreign owned Foreign banks operating through their American banking offices have also aggressively pursued U.S. business.
  11. 11. The growth in market share of U.S. offices of foreign banks in total loans and business loans. 45.0% 90.0% 40.0% 85.0% 35.0% 80.0% 30.0% 75.0% 25.0% 70.0% 20.0% 65.0% 15.0% 60.0% 10.0% 55.0% 5.0% 50.0% 0.0% Domestic total loans Foreign owned total loans Domestic business loans Foreign owned business loans Percent of total foreign owned 95.0% 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 50.0% Percent of total domestic 100.0%
  12. 12. The largest U.S. banks with significant international operations. Total Name Assets Citibank NA, New York NY 452,343 JPMorgan Chase Bk, New York NY 537,826 Bank of America NA, Charlotte NC 551,691 Fleet NA Bk, Providence RI 187,949 Bank of New York, New York NY 78,019 Bank One NA, Chicago IL 161,023 MBNA America Bk NA, Wilmington DE 43,066 First Union NB, Charlotte NC 232,785 State Street B&TC, Boston MA 65,410 Wachovia Bk NA, Winston-Salem NC1,555 7 Keybank NA, Cleveland OH 71,526 PNC Bk NA, Pittsburgh PA 62,610 Mellon Bk NA, Pittsburgh PA 27,813 Bank of Hawaii, Honolulu HI 10,493 Northern Trust Co, Chicago IL 32,758 National City Bk, Cleveland OH 39,214 Wells Fargo Bk NA, San Francisco140,675 CA Wells Fargo Bk MN NA, Minneapolis MN 52,428 Deposits Held in: Domestic Foreign Offices Offices $ Mill % TA 98,899 208,024 46.0% 160,102 120,371 22.4% 334,909 56,634 10.3% 110,148 22,316 11.9% 28,786 27,024 34.6% 81,020 26,358 16.4% 26,187 1,448 3.4% 135,276 12,473 5.4% 12,137 26,718 40.8% 42,684 3,627 5.1% 40,010 2,721 3.8% 44,079 2,307 3.7% 9,947 4,949 17.8% 5,621 1,369 13.0% 10,380 9,424 28.8% 20,464 1,007 2.6% 73,644 5,433 3.9% 26,311 7,459 14.2% Net Loans and leasses: Domestic Foreign Offices # of US Offices $ Mill % TA Branches 121,901 157,462 34.8% 277 135,872 39,022 7.3% 612 287,364 20,867 3.8% 4,350 102,956 19,737 10.5% 1,709 19,822 16,879 21.6% 362 76,440 4,991 3.1% 804 18,733 4,123 9.6% 3 118,053 3,479 1.5% 2,143 4,519 1,402 2.1% 1 45,434 807 1.1% 790 54,047 785 1.1% 980 39,072 777 1.2% 735 6,269 548 2.0% 346 5,312 495 4.7% 78 11,331 397 1.2% 1 31,022 154 0.4% 353 93,799 20 0.0% 939 34,277 1 0.0% 169
  13. 13. The largest “foreign owned” banks operating in the U.S. Deposits Held in: Loans in % # of Total Domestic Foreign Frgn Foreign # of US Foreign Top Holding Company Name Assets Offices Offices Offices Owned Branches Branches HSBC Bank USA, Buffalo NY 84,230 37,067 21,153 3,194 HS BC Holdings PLC, LONDON NA 100 440 19 Lasalle Bank NA, Chicago IL 54,731 24,963 4,226 0 ABN Amro, AMS TERDAM NA 100 122 2 Taunus Corporation, NEW YORK NY Bankers Trust Co, New York NY 42,678 11,423 10,000 253 100 4 14 Standard Federal Bk NA, Troy MI 42,088 19,702 624 0 ABN Amro, AMS TERDAM NA 100 385 2 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, TOKYO NA Union Bk of CA NA, San Francisco CA 35,591 26,518 3,305 1,041 66 286 6 Banco Popular De PR, San Juan PR 20,477 11,459 190 10,306 Popular Inc., S AN JUAN PR 100 2 204 Harris T&SB, Chicago IL 19,673 9,498 1,708 151 Bank of Montreal, MONTREAL NA 100 57 2 Allfirst Bk, Baltimore MD 17,762 12,758 545 249 Allied Irish Banks Limited, DUBLIN NA 100 270 2 RBC Centura Bk, Rocky Mount NC 13,732 7,388 273 0 Royal Bank of Canada, MONTREAL NA 100 241 1 Bank of The West, San Francisco CA 13,412 9,212 N/A 0 Bancwest Corporation, HONOLULU HI 44 193 0 United CA Bk, San Francisco CA 10,524 8,285 428 0 S anwa Bank, Limited, OS AKA NA 100 121 1 First Hawaiian Bk, Honolulu HI 8,682 5,691 463 364 Bancwest Corporation, HONOLULU HI 44 56 6 Firstbank PR, San Juan PR 8,143 4,117 N/A 0 First Bancorp, S AN JUAN PR 100 1 49 Banco S antander S .A., S ANTANDER NA Banco Santander PR, Hato Rey PR 7,656 4,811 0 0 80 1 72 TD Waterhouse Bk NA, Jersey City NJ 6,069 5,546 N/A 0 TD Waterhouse Holdings, Inc., NEW YORK NY 80 2 0 Israel Discount Bank Limited, TEL-AVIV NA 100 Israel Discount Bk of NY, New York NY 6,021 2,112 2,094 415 7 1 Westernbank Puerto Rico, Mayaguez PR 5,887 3,214 N/A 0 W Holding Company, Inc., MAYAGUEZ PR 100 1 35 Banco Popular North America, New York City NY 5,606 4,761 0 0 Popular Inc., S AN JUAN PR 100 98 0 Safra NB, New York NY 5,010 2,548 320 875 S NBNY Holdings Limited, MARINA BAY NA 99 2 1 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argenta, San Juan PR 4,801 2,971 N/A 0 BBVAPR Holding Corporation, S AN JUAN PR 100 1 61 Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi TC, New York NY 4,337 1,491 1,310 46 Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, TOKYO NA 100 1 1 Bank Leumi USA, New York NY 4,082 1,496 1,800 169 Bank Leumi Le-Israel B.M., TEL-AVIV NA 99 8 1 R-G Premier Bk of PR, San Juan PR 3,963 2,115 N/A 0 R&G Financial Corporation, S AN JUAN PR 100 1 25 Doral Bk, San Juan PR 3,486 1,528 N/A 0 Doral Financial Corporation, S AN JUAN PR 100 1 26 Incus Co. Ltd., ROAD TOWN NA Laredo NB, Laredo TX 2,349 2,029 N/A 0 71 24 0
  14. 14. Universal banking model  Universal banking is the conduct of a variety of financial services such as:  trading of financial instruments; foreign exchange activities; underwriting new debt and equity issues; investment management, insurance; as well as extension of credit and deposit gathering  Universal banks have long dominated banking in most of continental Europe. Universal banks engage in everything from insurance to investment banking and retail banking—  similar to U.S. banks prior to the enactment of the Banking Act of 1933 and Glass-Steagall provisions and now post the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999
  15. 15. Three events changed the historical development of banking in the united states. 1. The first was the stock market crash of 1929 and the following Great Depression.  2. 3. Many people blamed the banks and the universal banking activities for the problems although there is no strong evidence to link the speculative activities of banks with the crash. The second was the enactment of the Banking Act of 1933 and the Glass-Steagall provision, which separated commercial banking from investment banking activities. The third was the rising importance of the federal government in financial markets. Prior to these events, the U.S. banking system operated more of less under a universal banking system.
  16. 16. The advantages of universal banking …risk diversification and expanded business opportunities.  A universal bank can spread its costs over a broader base of activities and generate more revenues by offering a bundle of products.  Diversification, in turn, reduces risk.  insurance companies, investment banks and other suppliers of financial services are moving toward building financial conglomerates  The GLB Act repealed Glass-Steagall and allows U.S. banks to operate in the business of commercial banking, investment banking, and insurance.  Although there are many restrictions, U.S. banks are allowed to compete with foreign banks on an equal footing for the first time since the passage of the Glass-Steagall Act,
  17. 17. Disadvantages of universal banking …inherent conflict of interest  A universal bank might use pressure tactics to coerce a corporation into using its underwriting services or buy insurance from its subsidiary by threatening to cut off credit facilities.  It could force a borrower in financial difficulties to issue risky securities in order to pay off loans.  A universal bank could also abuse confidential information supplied by a company issuing securities as well.  One area of the new GLB Act that has received significant attention is that of privacy protection
  18. 18. Formation and development of the European Community (EC) will provide new opportunities for U.S. Banks.  By abolishing trade restrictions, the EC exposes European banks to outside competition.  In order to increase their competitive advantage, many banks are looking into merging with banks from other countries.  Today, most of Europe uses a unified currency, the Euro.
  19. 19. Organizational structures in international markets  Head office  International divisions or departments are operated as a part of the head office's organizational structure, with the division managers reporting to senior management (supervisory function).  Representative office  International office which does not conduct normal banking business but simply represents the corporation, with the purpose of promoting the corporation's name and developing business to be funneled to the home office (exploratory function).
  20. 20. Foreign offices  Foreign branch  A legal part of the home bank which is subject to the laws and regulations of the host nation  Shell office  Does not conduct business with local individuals; serves as a conduit for Eurodollar activities that originate in the head office  Full-service branch  Performs all the activities of domestic banks  Foreign Subsidiary  Foreign banks or non-bank corporations acquired by domestic commercial banks or bank holding companies; distinct from the parent bank and performs the same functions as the domestic banks
  21. 21. Edge act and agreement corporations  Edge Act corporations:  Domestic subsidiaries of banks chartered by the Federal Reserve which may be established by U.S. or foreign banks and are limited to activities involving foreign customers.  Agreement corporations:  State-chartered equivalents of Edge Act Corporations.
  22. 22. International banking facilities  Subparts of banks that are created to conduct international business without the cost and effort of avoiding regulatory requirements through shell units.  Exist as a set of accounting entries on the books of the parent company.
  23. 23. Export trading companies  Companies that are acquired by banks and are organized and operated principally for purposes of exporting goods and services produced in the U.S. by unaffiliated persons.
  24. 24. Agencies of foreign banks  Parts of foreign banks that can offer only a limited range of banking services (cannot accept transactions deposits from U.S. residents or issue CDs) with the primary purpose of financing trade originating from firms in their own country.
  25. 25. International financial markets  International markets have evolved to facilitate funds flow in international exchange of goods and services and to reduce the risk of doing business outside the home country.
  26. 26. The Eurocurrency market  Eurocurrency:  A deposit liability in any currency except that of the country in which the bank is located.  Eurobank:  Bank that issues Eurocurrency claims.
  27. 27. Eurodollars  Arise when a Eurobank accepting the deposit receives a dollar claim on the U.S. bank from which the funds were transferred.  Eurobanks will redeposit the Eurodollar proceeds in another bank until the funds are given out as a loan by one of the banks.  The initial Eurodollar deposit is accepted at the base rate called LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate).  Each redeposit and the final loan will then be priced at a markup over LIBOR.
  28. 28. The Eurobond market  Bonds issued in the international Euromarket, underwritten by an international banking syndicate, not subject to any one country's securities laws, and denominated in any major national currency.  Floating-rate Note:  Issued in denominations as low as $5,000 with maturities ranging from two to five years, carrying interest rates that vary with LIBOR.
  29. 29. Eurocredits …term loans priced at a premium over LIBOR, with the rate floating every three or six months in most cases, thereby reducing the mismatch between asset and liability maturities  Eurocredits are created to overcome interest rate risk.
  30. 30. International lending  International operations generate a considerable portion of earnings for money center banks  Citigroup earns about two-thirds of their earnings globally.  International lending, however, carries risks not associated with domestic lending Country risk …default risk associated with loans to borrowers outside the home country  Foreign exchange risk …the current and potential volatility in earnings and stockholders’ equity due to changes in foreign exchange rates. 
  31. 31. Short-term foreign trade financing …international trade and international trade financing are considerably more complex than simply dealing with trading partners within the same country  To facilitate trade, someone must enter the transaction and assume the risk that the importer may not pay.  Commercial banks fulfill this role through bankers acceptance financing.  Trading partners must also have the opportunity to convert one currency into another, which creates a demand for foreign exchange services as well.  Bankers acceptance …A time draft that represents a guarantee under which the accepting bank agrees to remit the face value of the draft at maturity.  Acceptances are attractive because a bank substitutes its credit rating for that of the importer.
  32. 32. Bankers Acceptance financing of U.S. Imports …a bankers acceptance is created, discounted, sold, and paid at maturity
  33. 33. Direct international loans …originate from international departments of domestic banks, Edge Act corporations, credit offices of foreign branches and subsidiaries.  Credit extended to less-developed countries (LDCs) has exhibited a poor repayment history and many of the banks have chosen to withdraw from lending to these countries after a large number of default incidents that took place in the 1980s.  Banks prefer to have foreign exposure in the form of equity investments rather than long-term, constantly renegotiated loans to foreign central banks.
  34. 34. Credit analysis of foreign loans  Credit analysis for international loans follow the same procedures adopted frequently for domestic loans:  evaluation of the required loan amount,  use of proceeds,  source and timing of expected payment,  availability of secondary collateral sources.
  35. 35. Foreign exchange activities  Because different countries use different monetary units, traders must be able to convert one unit into another.  Foreign exchange markets are where these monetary units are traded.  Foreign exchange …currency other than the monetary unit of the home country  Exchange rate …the price of one currency in terms of another currency.
  36. 36. Risks unique to international lending:  Foreign exchange risk …the current and potential risk to earnings and stockholders’ equity arising from changes in foreign exchange rates  Country risk …default risk associated with loans to borrowers outside the home country  Economic risks …quantifiable economic and business risks (mostly examined under regular credit analysis).  Political (sovereign) risks …the likelihood that foreign governments will unilaterally alter their debt service payments, regardless of the formal repayment schedule
  37. 37. Foreign Exchange: …currency other than the monetary unit of the home country  Exchange Rate …price of one currency in terms of another currency.  Spot Market: …market for exchange of currencies for immediate delivery.  Forward Market …market for transactions that represent a commitment to exchange currencies at a specified time in the future at an exchange rate determined at the time the contract is signed.
  38. 38. Foreign exchange risk …current and potential risk to earnings and stockholder’s equity arising from changes in foreign exchange rates  Found when changing exchange rates affect a bank’s cash inflows differently than cash outflows associated with positions denominated in different currencies  Changes in values of foreign currency positions (buying and selling foreign currencies for their own account) due to changing foreign exchange rates is price risk
  39. 39. Example: Foreign exchange risk  Commerce Bank’s (CB) home country is Poland and home currency is the zloty. current (spot) exchange rate is $1 = 150 zlotys. 2. Commerce Bank: 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. $1,000 in loans $250 in liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars assets are worth 150,000 zlotys liabilities are worth 37,500 zlotys at the prevailing exchange rate.  If the exchange rate moved to $1 = 160 zlotys, 1. assets increase in value by 10,000 zlotys, 2. liabilities increase by 2,500 zlotys. 3. the bank’s equity would rise by 7,500 zlotys.
  40. 40. Example (continued): Foreign exchange risk  If the exchange rate moved to $1 = 140 zlotys, 1. assets decrease in value by 10,000 zlotys, 2. liabilities decrease by 2,500 zlotys 3. the bank’s would see stockholders’ equity decrease by 7,500 zlotys  These same exposures exist for off-balance sheet commitments and guarantees when counterparties effect the at risk transactions or activities.
  41. 41. Managing foreign exchange rate risk  A bank’s risk managers analyze aggregate foreign exchange risk by currency.  A bank’s net balance sheet exposure in currency j (NEXPj) is the amount of assets minus the amount of liabilities denominated in currency j:  NEXPj = Aj – Lj where Aj = assets denominated in currency j, Lj = liabilities denominated in currency j.  If NEXPj > 0, the bank is long on currency j and if NEXPj < 0, the bank is short currency j.
  42. 42. Gain/Loss in a position  The bank will lose if:  it is long a currency (NEXPj > 0) and the currency depreciates in value (the currency buys less of another currency).  if it is short a currency (NEXPj < 0) and the currency appreciates in value (the currency buys more of another currency).  The gain/loss in a position with a currency is indicated by:  Gain/Loss in a Position With Currency j = NEXPj x [spot exchange rate at time t – spot exchange rate at time t-1]
  43. 43. Example: gain/loss in a position  Current (spot) exchange rate is $1 = 150 zlotys.  Commerce Bank’s (CB) would lose if  long U.S. dollars   the dollar depreciates as indicated by a movement in the exchange rate to $1 = 140 zlotys. Loss = [1,000 - 250] x [140 - 150] = -7,500 zlotys  CB would gain if  the dollar appreciates as indicated by a exchange rate change to $1 = 160 zlotys.
  44. 44. Example: forward markets  A bank commits to buy 1 million yen, 90 days forward for $9804.  This means that after 90 days, the bank pays $9804 and receives 1 million yen, regardless of movements in exchange rates during the 90-day period.
  45. 45. Forward markets: forward premium.  Forward premium …the forward price of a currency is higher than its spot price, the foreign currency is priced at a premium.  Example: a bank agrees to buy 1 million yen 90 days forward for 102 yens per dollar.  If the spot rate is 105 yens per dollar, the yen is priced at a forward premium against the dollar. 
  46. 46. Forward markets: forward discount.  Forward discount …the forward price of a currency is lower than its spot price, the foreign currency is priced at a discount.  Example: a bank agrees to buy 1 million yen 90 days forward for 102 yens per dollar.  if the spot rate is 100 yens per dollar, the yen is priced at a forward discount against the dollar. 
  47. 47. Relationship between foreign exchange rates and interest rates.  Arbitrage transactions between countries guarantee that interest rate changes produce changes in foreign exchange rates, and vice versa.  If the interest rate differential between securities in two countries falls out of line with the spot-to-forward exchange rate differential, a covered interest arbitrage will take place and investors will make net profits from the series of transactions.
  48. 48. Continuing arbitrage will go on until prices move back into line to eliminate the riskless return from covered interest arbitrage. Covered interest arbitrage 2. Convert dollars to francs at $1 = 1.7 francs  $1,090,000  1 + 0.09 (1.7) = 1.7 million francs   $1,009,000 = $1,000,000 + 0.09 1 1. Borrow dollars at 9% 3. Invest in Swiss securities yielding 10%  $1,090,000   1 + 0.09 (1.7)(1.10) = 1.87 million francs   $1,090,000 (1.7)(1.10) = $1,121,776 + 0.09 1 (1.667) 4. Sell francs for dollars 1 year forward at $1 = 1.667 francs Sample Transaction: Borrow $1,000,000 1. Borrow $1,000,000 at 9%; agree to repay $1,090,000 in one year. 2. Convert $1,000,000 to 1.7 million francs in spot market at $1 = 1.7 francs. 3. Invest 1.7 million francs in 1-year security yielding 10%; will receive 1.87 million francs after 1 year. 4. Sell 1.87 million francs 1 year forward for $1,121,776 at $1 = 1.667 francs. Net profit = $1,121,776 - $1,090,000 = $ 31,776
  49. 49. Foreign exchange rates and interest rates  Covered interest arbitrage …exists when the interest rate differential between securities in two countries is out of line with the spot-to-forward exchange rate differential.  Interest rate parity …exist when covered interest arbitrage profit potential is eliminated.
  50. 50. Interest rate parity implies: 1 + i 2  s1,2   = 1, = 1 + i1  f1,2    or i 2 − i1  f1,2 − s1,2 = 1 + i1  s1,2  Where i1: Annual interest rate in Country 1. i2: Annual interest rate in Country 2. s1,2: Spot exchange rate equal to the number of units of Country 2's currency for one unit of Country 1's currency. f1,2: One-year forward  exchange rate equal to  the number of units of  Country 2's currency  for one unit of Country 1's currency.
  51. 51. The interest rate parity equilibrium condition suggests that:  The forward exchange rate differential, as a fraction of the spot rate, should equal the interest rate differential relative to 1 plus an interest factor to eliminate arbitrage profits.  Example: i1 is 9%,  i2 is 10%, and  s1,2 is 1.7 as in the previous example,  then f1,2 should be equal to 1.7156:  0.10 − 0.09  f1,2 − 1.7  =  1 + 0.09  1.7 
  52. 52. Bank Management, 5th edition. Management Timothy W. Koch and S. Scott MacDonald Copyright © 2003 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning GLOBAL BANKING ACTIVITIES Chapter 21

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