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The Niwot Ridge Mountain Biosphere Reserve:
Tipping points in high-elevation ecosystems
in response to changes in climate and
atmospheric deposition


       Mark Williams, University of Colorado
High-elevation areas are important
  bellwethers of global change:
   we need long-term research
Glaciated
valley      SADDLE
External Drivers: Temperature
 Increasing air temperature since early 1980’s
 Summer air temps warming fastest
 Earlier lake ice-out
  dates




      5ºC increase in 25 years
External Drivers: Precipitation
 Greater precipitation with increasing elevation
 Increases in the winter months (more snow)
 Summer drought starting in 2000
External Drivers: N deposition

• Increased rates of N deposition (wetfall)
• N loading increases, despite drought
ARIKAREE         D1 CLIMATE
     GLACIER

ROCK
GLACIER
                   GREEN
                   LAKE 4




                3,600 m
Earlier Snowmelt 2-6 days decade-1
Precipitation Effects on Streamflow

   GL4               225-ha




   MART               8-ha
Wet Year            vs.   Dry Year
-Increasing subsurface
pathways.

-- Snowmelt peak is not
snow – old, reacted water
(talus + baseflow) is
pushed out by infiltrating
snow.

-- Source of baseflow
changes and volumes are
not significantly different.
Arikaree glacier is dying




                              Drought
                              Tipping point




Arikaree Glacier: Mass balance (Bn), cm water equivalent.
N dep + warming T = N saturation


                  N Critical load:
                  Aquatic
                  4 Kg N/ ha/ yr




Annual VWM concentrations of nitrate increase at all stream sites
Stoichiometric controls on N-
          cycling




  Scatterplot of NO3- vs. DOC: NO3- ratio
  for eight sites in Green Lakes Valley.
Saddle site
how much N input does it take to produce a change in
    species composition? (= N critical load using biotic
                        response)




Addressed experimentally in
species rich dry meadow, using
additions of 2, 4, 6 g N/m2/yr
species composition response:



                      50    treatment x year P < 0.01
                                                                          Carex rupestris
                      40
projected cover (%)




                                                                    N added:
  Carex rupestris




                      30                                                  0
                                                                          2
                      20
                                                                          4
                      10                                                  6

                       0
                      96

                           98

                                  00

                                          02

                                                  04

                                                         06

                                                                 08
               19

                           19

                                20

                                        20

                                                20

                                                        20

                                                               20

                Treatment specific rate of change in cover
                                             similar response for Trisetum spicatum
Empirical estimation of N critical load for plant
   species responses in alpine dry meadows
       4




    (% projected cover/yr)
    change in Carex cover
                             3


                             2


                             1


                             0
                                 -1      0     1   2    3          4             5        6    7
                                                                       -2            -1
                       0.0                     N input (g N m               yr )
                                                                                              N Critical load:
 score (value /year)
  Change in DCA1




                                                                                              10-40 Kg N/ ha/
                       -2.5
                                                                                              yr
                       -5.0

                                      Whole community response
                       -7.5
                                 -1     0     1    2   3       4                 5        6    7
                                                              -2            -1
                                             N input (g N m        yr )
Woody Willow Encroachment
Willow Encroachment Experiment

             Factorial manipulation of N
             (fertilizer), snow (snowfence),
             summer temperature (open-
             topped chambers), in all possible
             combinations
             + Addition of Salix glauca
             seedlings
Shrub growth benefits from
increased N, snow, and temperature
Salix growth in height after 2 years (cm)
Feedbacks to ecosystem processes

 Willow encroachment
  increases litter, N availability,




                                      Net N mineralization
                                                             (mg N/g soil/30 days)
  and snow depth.
 These effects may accelerate
  encroachment




                                                                                     Absent Present
                                                                                       Willows
Summary
• Disappearing glaciers
• Snowmelt occurring earlier
• Drought years little discharge because of
  groundwater deficit
• Increasing N deposition increases nitrate in
  streamflow
• Critical loads for terrestrial veg 10 kg/ha/yr
• Shrub invasion of alpine
QUESTIONS?
Remote sensing and isotopic analysis to determine the contribution of snow- and ice-melt to streamflow in the Nepal Himalaya [Mark Williams]

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Remote sensing and isotopic analysis to determine the contribution of snow- and ice-melt to streamflow in the Nepal Himalaya [Mark Williams]

  • 1. The Niwot Ridge Mountain Biosphere Reserve: Tipping points in high-elevation ecosystems in response to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition Mark Williams, University of Colorado
  • 2. High-elevation areas are important bellwethers of global change: we need long-term research
  • 4. External Drivers: Temperature  Increasing air temperature since early 1980’s  Summer air temps warming fastest  Earlier lake ice-out dates 5ºC increase in 25 years
  • 5. External Drivers: Precipitation  Greater precipitation with increasing elevation  Increases in the winter months (more snow)  Summer drought starting in 2000
  • 6. External Drivers: N deposition • Increased rates of N deposition (wetfall) • N loading increases, despite drought
  • 7. ARIKAREE D1 CLIMATE GLACIER ROCK GLACIER GREEN LAKE 4 3,600 m
  • 8. Earlier Snowmelt 2-6 days decade-1
  • 9. Precipitation Effects on Streamflow GL4 225-ha MART 8-ha
  • 10. Wet Year vs. Dry Year -Increasing subsurface pathways. -- Snowmelt peak is not snow – old, reacted water (talus + baseflow) is pushed out by infiltrating snow. -- Source of baseflow changes and volumes are not significantly different.
  • 11. Arikaree glacier is dying Drought Tipping point Arikaree Glacier: Mass balance (Bn), cm water equivalent.
  • 12. N dep + warming T = N saturation N Critical load: Aquatic 4 Kg N/ ha/ yr Annual VWM concentrations of nitrate increase at all stream sites
  • 13. Stoichiometric controls on N- cycling Scatterplot of NO3- vs. DOC: NO3- ratio for eight sites in Green Lakes Valley.
  • 15. how much N input does it take to produce a change in species composition? (= N critical load using biotic response) Addressed experimentally in species rich dry meadow, using additions of 2, 4, 6 g N/m2/yr
  • 16. species composition response: 50 treatment x year P < 0.01 Carex rupestris 40 projected cover (%) N added: Carex rupestris 30 0 2 20 4 10 6 0 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 Treatment specific rate of change in cover similar response for Trisetum spicatum
  • 17. Empirical estimation of N critical load for plant species responses in alpine dry meadows 4 (% projected cover/yr) change in Carex cover 3 2 1 0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -2 -1 0.0 N input (g N m yr ) N Critical load: score (value /year) Change in DCA1 10-40 Kg N/ ha/ -2.5 yr -5.0 Whole community response -7.5 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -2 -1 N input (g N m yr )
  • 19. Willow Encroachment Experiment Factorial manipulation of N (fertilizer), snow (snowfence), summer temperature (open- topped chambers), in all possible combinations + Addition of Salix glauca seedlings
  • 20. Shrub growth benefits from increased N, snow, and temperature Salix growth in height after 2 years (cm)
  • 21. Feedbacks to ecosystem processes  Willow encroachment increases litter, N availability, Net N mineralization (mg N/g soil/30 days) and snow depth.  These effects may accelerate encroachment Absent Present Willows
  • 22. Summary • Disappearing glaciers • Snowmelt occurring earlier • Drought years little discharge because of groundwater deficit • Increasing N deposition increases nitrate in streamflow • Critical loads for terrestrial veg 10 kg/ha/yr • Shrub invasion of alpine