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Evaluating links between climate change and recent    enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the                 ...
Expected High Altitude Plant Response to          “improving” climate                  • “Improving” conditions           ...
Recent Results (Salzer et al., 2009)• Showed that increment growth was increasing for three bristlecone  sites in the west...
Some Limitations• Three bristlecone sites   – Are they truly representative of all bristlecones?• Bristlecone pine only   ...
Purpose/goals of this research• To evaluate vegetation cover trends for:   – Many sites   – Many species   – Over an eleva...
Annual NPP (GLOPEM)                                                       g C/m2/year                                     ...
Change in NPP 1981 to 2000                        NPPDifference2000-1981                        g C/m2/year               ...
Study Area:Western United   States
GIS Based                                               Processing StepsRaw and Derived     Data                        Ex...
Analysis Point ExtractionGrid points placed every 6 kmAlternative placements offset every 2 km N,S,E & Wto test whether pl...
Extractions for each grid cell and point location           • NPP Annual (1981, 1982, 1983 …….., 2000)           • Delta N...
Analysis by Land Cover Type• Between 1981 and 2000 NPP at all elevations increased by an average of~67 g C/m2 (~7.0 percen...
Analysis  By TreeSpecies
Species where water availabilityis not an issueSlow growingLow moisture useHigh drought tolerance
Species where water availabilityis somewhat of an issueRange of growth ratesMedium moisture useLow to medium drought toler...
Species where water availabilityis an issue (medium to highwater use and/or medium to lowdrought tolerance)*Results:•Decre...
ANOVA - NPP and moisture use
NPP Change above 2000m                          Delta NPP                         1981 to 2000                           G...
California and Nevada Bristlecone Sites  At Elevations Greater Than 2000m                                  Pearl          ...
Trends in bristlecone pine NPP             1981-2000Elevation (m)             P. longaeva   P. aristataMid-point of 500m r...
Bristlecone pine NPP                                    August                                                            ...
Conclusions•   Increase in NPP for 11 of the 15 species     – Suggests that some, but not all, species are experiencing hi...
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Evaluating links between climate change and recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United States [Louis Scuderi]

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Evaluating links between climate change and recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United States. Presented by Louis Scuderi at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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Transcript of "Evaluating links between climate change and recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United States [Louis Scuderi]"

  1. 1. Evaluating links between climate change and recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United StatesLouis A. Scuderi and Maria Lohmann,Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesUniversity of New Mexico
  2. 2. Expected High Altitude Plant Response to “improving” climate • “Improving” conditions – Warmer temperatures – Increased growing season length – Adequate moisture/water balance • Response spectrum – Main stem – Increased increment growth – Whole plant – canopy expansion/densification – Entire treeline – upward movement of treeline
  3. 3. Recent Results (Salzer et al., 2009)• Showed that increment growth was increasing for three bristlecone sites in the western United States• This increase only was detectable from treeline to 150 meters below treeline• The actual elevation of the treeline was not important Salzer et al., 2009
  4. 4. Some Limitations• Three bristlecone sites – Are they truly representative of all bristlecones?• Bristlecone pine only – Unknown if the response is species specific or extends to other treeline species• Focus on the whole stem response (increment growth only) – What is happening to the entire plant? – What is happening for all trees at all sites?• Responding to what factors? – Temperature, Precipitation, ??? or some combination?
  5. 5. Purpose/goals of this research• To evaluate vegetation cover trends for: – Many sites – Many species – Over an elevation range• To evaluate vegetation growth trends – INDEPENDENT OF DENDROCLIMATIC ANALYSIS• To determine whether dendroclimatic analysis suggesting enhanced growth is supported by other measures of plant growth
  6. 6. Annual NPP (GLOPEM) g C/m2/year 0 - 213 214 - 425 426 - 638 639 - 850 851 - 1,063 1,064 - 1,275 1,276 - 1,488 1,489 - 1,700 1981 Global Production Efficiency ModelGlobal Land Cover Facility, www.landcover.org
  7. 7. Change in NPP 1981 to 2000 NPPDifference2000-1981 g C/m2/year High : 2467.93 Pos. 0.0 Neg. Low : -2190.16
  8. 8. Study Area:Western United States
  9. 9. GIS Based Processing StepsRaw and Derived Data Extraction ofRAW DATA FROM Analysis PointsAVHRR & MODIS• Annual NPP (81-00) Output files CONVERT• Annual GPP (00-10) • Land cover • Species maps Point Data StatisticalATTRIBUTEINFORMTION • Annual NPP (81-00) Analysis TO • Delta NPP (81-00)• Land cover types • Point coverages • Precip, Tmax, Tmin ANOVA and• Tree species with 6km spacing • Regression Regression by:• Species attributes coefficients (a, b, r) • Elevation• Elevation data • Land cover types• PRISM Climate Data Stratified By • Tree species • Precipitation • Land cover type • Species attributes • Minimum T • Maximum T • Tree species • Elevation
  10. 10. Analysis Point ExtractionGrid points placed every 6 kmAlternative placements offset every 2 km N,S,E & Wto test whether placement impacted final resultsRepeated for each land cover type and species
  11. 11. Extractions for each grid cell and point location • NPP Annual (1981, 1982, 1983 …….., 2000) • Delta NPP (change in NPP from 1981 to 2000) • Regression equation (a, b, r)Each of the above then analyzed by: • Elevation ranges: • Divided into 500 meter increments from 0 to 4500 meters • Land Cover type • 14 Land Cover Types (Mapped from MODIS: USGS) • Species • 17 Species (Little, 1991 - USDA species maps) • Species characteristics (USDA) • 28 separate attributes • drought tolerance • water use • growth rate • etc.
  12. 12. Analysis by Land Cover Type• Between 1981 and 2000 NPP at all elevations increased by an average of~67 g C/m2 (~7.0 percent) over the entire study area. Woodland Shrubland Grassland Forest All 5.5 6.1 11.4 3.1Elevations Above 6.3 11.2 8.3 3.4 2000m Above 1.8 5.4 2.4 4.5 2500m
  13. 13. Analysis By TreeSpecies
  14. 14. Species where water availabilityis not an issueSlow growingLow moisture useHigh drought tolerance
  15. 15. Species where water availabilityis somewhat of an issueRange of growth ratesMedium moisture useLow to medium drought tolerance
  16. 16. Species where water availabilityis an issue (medium to highwater use and/or medium to lowdrought tolerance)*Results:•Decreasing trends in NPPor,•Increase in NPP to a mid-forestelevation and then a decrease athigher elevation*includes subpopulations ofbristlecone and foxtail pines foundin wetter regions
  17. 17. ANOVA - NPP and moisture use
  18. 18. NPP Change above 2000m Delta NPP 1981 to 2000 G C/m2 -174 - -150 -149 - -100 -99 - -50 -49 - -1 0 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 250 251 - 300 301 - 350 351 - 400 401 - 450 451 - 500 501 - 550
  19. 19. California and Nevada Bristlecone Sites At Elevations Greater Than 2000m Pearl NPP %Change Peak 1981 to 2000 0-0 1 - 60 61 - 70 71 - 80 81 - 90 91 - 100 101 - 110 111 - 120 121 - 130 131 - 140 Mt 141 - 200 White WashingtonMountains
  20. 20. Trends in bristlecone pine NPP 1981-2000Elevation (m) P. longaeva P. aristataMid-point of 500m range2250 +12.36% -------2750 + 9.67% + 3.95%3250 +17.34% + 4.21%3750 +36.52% + 3.37%All Elevations +11.67% + 3.82%
  21. 21. Bristlecone pine NPP August and climate AprilStandardized Coefficients 1981-2000 Bristlecone pine NPP above 2500m and west of longitude 109 August AprilStandardized Coefficients Bristlecone pine NPP above 2500m Annual and east of longitude 109
  22. 22. Conclusions• Increase in NPP for 11 of the 15 species – Suggests that some, but not all, species are experiencing higher growth over the past 30 years – Pronounced increases at the highest elevations• Slow growing species with exceptional drought tolerance and low water usage had the largest increases – Greater increase for the drier subpopulations of bristlecone and foxtail pine – Greater increase for arid region Great Basin species• Supports the argument for enhanced bristlecone pine growth derived from tree ring analysis – For NPP this suggests a response to a change in season length and water availability associated with higher minimum temperatures• The trend at these sites has continued, albeit at a slower rate, from 2000 to 2010 as indicated from analysis of MODIS GPP and NPP data
  23. 23. Questions?
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