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Climate change and biodiversity loss as drivers for zoonotic diseases emergence in the Alps: the case of tick-borne encephalitis [Annapaola Rizzoli]
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Climate change and biodiversity loss as drivers for zoonotic diseases emergence in the Alps: the case of tick-borne encephalitis [Annapaola Rizzoli]

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Climate change and biodiversity loss as drivers. Presented by Annapaola Rizzoli at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

Climate change and biodiversity loss as drivers. Presented by Annapaola Rizzoli at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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  • 1. Fondazione Edmund Mach San Michele all’Adige (I) Global Change and the Worlds MountainsPerth, Scotland, 26-30 September 2010 Climate change and biodiversity loss as drivers for zoonotic diseases emergence in the Alps: the case of tick- borne encephalitis Annapaola Rizzoli, DVM, PhD Roberto Rosà, Heidi Hauffe, Markus Neteler, Valentina Tagliapietra, Daniele Arnoldi, Francesca Cagnacci
  • 2. Tick-borne encephalitis in Europe •Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that belongs to the genus Flavivirus •Three subtypes: W European (WE), Siberian (SIB), and Far Eastern (FE) • Transmitted to humans mostly through the bite of an infected tick of the Ixodes species, primarily I. ricinus (European subtype) or I. persulcatus (Siberian and Far Eastern subtypes). • The prevalence of TBE increased by almost 400% in the last 30 years (14,000 cases/year) • TBE is endemic in temperate regions of Europe and Asia but new foci are discovered • Evidences of altitudinal shift in many regions
  • 3. Network of independent but synergistic biological and non-biological factors Examples of data from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Czech Republic. Industria l employee s, % of pre -1990 le ve l employees Ind ustr ial outp ut, 100 LT 80 Reduced Environmental Socio-economic 60 industrial awareness? transition 40 pollution output LV 20 Global brightening ?? 1 97 0 1 98 0 1 99 0 2 00 0 Decline of agriculture Higher Higher TBE incidence Sudden increase unemployment in Spring temperature % unemployment 15 60 LV SI % of mean for 1986-88 TBE cases/100,000 population Nationl catt le herd, 100 10 40 ES 24 21-30.Apr Mean daily max temp SI 8 1.Mar-20.Apr 80 5 CZ 20 6 60 20 16 0 4 40 CZ 1 97 0 1 98 0 1 99 0 2 00 0 2 12 20 LV 0 197 0 198 0 199 0 200 0 0 8 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 CZ -2 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 More wealth 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 nat ional land area 50 & leisure SI 40 20 % of tot al wooded LV 30 Increased co-feeding 0 transmission of TBEV More hosts 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 10 field crops LV Greater human for adult ticks 0 exposure to ticks More infected ticks 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 LV CZ in forests? wild boar/1000 ha 20 15 Roe deer & 15 10 10 100 Adult ticks , May LV 5 Regeneration of 80 5 Increase in rodent 60 0 0 shrubs 1970 1980 1990 2000 populations 1970 1980 1990 2000 40 (transmission hosts) 20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 More ticks Courtesy: Sarah RandolphŠumilo D, Randolph SE et al (2008) Revs Med Virol Sumilo D, Randolph SE, et al PLoS ONE (2007) e500
  • 4. Ecological factors affectingEcological factors TBEv circulation within natural foci R0
  • 5. Key hosts threshold density and TBE persistence Parameter estimates obtained from Trentino dataThreshold density of and from literature competent rodent hosts 10 Roe deer density (ha-1) – Log scale 1 “Diverting” effect’ Range of observed of deer 0.1 host density R0 < 1 R0 = 1 R0 > 1 Threshold 0.01 density and a positive effect of deer density on tick 0.001 abundance 0.1 1 10 100 Rodent density (ha-1) – Log scaleTBE model
  • 6. Complex dynamics in time and space m L NL 1L c1N LH1 N L (1   NL / k N k L ) R0,TBE  dT  g N
  • 7. Upsurge of TBE in northern Italy Graph showing numbers of mean annual incidence (n. of cases/100.000 inhabitants) and annual TBE confirmed human cases in the positive provinces
  • 8. Changes in climate MAP of TBE positive and TBE negative provinces • Increase of Avg.yr.Tmin on a 50yr period was 0.75 °C • Increase of Avg.yr.Tmax on a 50yr period was 1.7 °C • Decrease of Avg.yr.prec on a 50yr period was -180mm Trends in annual total precipitation (top), annual minimum (middle) and maximum (bottom) daily air temperature in the TBE-negative provinces (left panels) and TBE-positive provinces (right panels) in northern Italy from 1950 to 2006 (Rizzoli et al., Plos one, 2009)
  • 9. Changes in deer abundance Changes in roe deer density in provinces TBE positive (Trento and Belluno) and TBE negative (Sondrio) 7 6 5 4 Trento Belluno 3 Sondrio 2 1 0 53 65 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Boxplot of mean values of coppice to high forest ratio (cop.hfor)(left panel) and mean values of roe deer abundance (right panel) in TBE positive and TBE negative provinces of northern Italy (Rizzoli et al., Plos one, 2009)
  • 10. Changes in forest cover and structure - 14% of the total wooded areas increased from 1950 to 2002 - Major increase in - high stand mixed forest (184%) - broad leaf coppices (359%) - total mixed coppices (154%) Mean coppice and high forest cover recorded in TBE-negative provinces (left panel) and TBE-positive provinces (right panel) (Rizzoli et al., Plos one, 2009)
  • 11. Conclusion Protection from natural hazards, including infectious diseases, and health protection are considered among the most relevant services provided by mountain ecosystems;  Global changes, including the invasion by alien species, are favouring the emergence of several animal and zoonotic diseases in world’s mountains; Habitat changes and biodiversity loss favor TBD’s emergence: TBD’s pathogens circulation is in fact supported mostly by generalist species (rodents, large game species, I. ricinus) Urgent need to better understand the effects of multi-trophic interactions under a global change scenario across altitudinal gradients Emerging diseases in mountains should be addedd to the “emerging themes” to be covered by integrated research strategies because of their dramatic impact on well being and economy
  • 12. Acknowledgements The Reseach Fund of the Autonomous Province of TrentoContactsannapaola.rizzoli@iasma.it