Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada [Jeff Zukiwsky]
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Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada [Jeff Zukiwsky]

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Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada. Presented by Jeff Zukiwsky at the "Perth II: Global Change and the ...

Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada. Presented by Jeff Zukiwsky at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada [Jeff Zukiwsky] Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment:Examples from Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada Jeff Zukiwsky Zumundo Consultants Fernie, Canada September 28, 2010
  • 2. Overview Columbia Basin Trust (CBT) Communities Adapting to Climate Change (CACC) Initiative2 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 3. 3 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 4. Adapting to Climate Change4 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 5. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started2. Learn About Climate Change3. Identify Community Priorities4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 5 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 6. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started • Appoint a coordinator • Establish a local steering committee2. Learn About Climate Change3. Identify Community Priorities4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 6 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 7. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started2. Learn About Climate Change • Local observations • Historical patterns • Future projections3. Identify Community Priorities4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 7 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 8. Annual mean temperature, 1961-1990 (left) and CGCM3-A2 / CRCM4 downscaled scenario, 2041-2070 (right) (Source: Trevor Murdock, PCIC)8 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 9. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started2. Learn About Climate Change3. Identify Community Priorities • Engage Community • Map climate change impacts4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 9 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 10. Mapping Climate Change Impacts10 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 11. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started2. Learn About Climate Change3. Identify Community Priorities4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities • Risk- based Approach • Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 11 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 12. Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Risk Management Approach  Risk = Probability x Consequence HighConsequence Negligible- No action required Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable Moderate- Some controls Low required to reduce risk to lower levels High - High priority control Unlikely Likely measures required Extreme - Immediate controls Probability required 12
  • 13. Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment  Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity  Risk = Probability x Consequence  Rate each ‘impact’ as low, medium, or high Low High Vulnerability Vulnerability Should be priority planning High Risk May be priority planning areas areas Are unlikely to be priority Low Risk May be priority planning areas planning areas 13
  • 14. 14 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 15. 15 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 16. District of Elkford• Priorities: • Flooding • Wildfires• 1 day workshop (consultant facilitated) with City staff, elected Damage to Flooding of buildings bridge officials, scientific experts, and and land community members Pumphouse flooding• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Vulnerability Assessment Death/injury Stormwater to river managemen • Vulnerability = Sensitivity x users t stress Adaptive Capacity • Risk = Vulnerability x Probability (20 year planning period) Probability 16 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 17. 17 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 18. City of Kimberley3 Planning Priorities 1. Water and Forests 2. Municipal Infrastructure 3. Tourism• Partnership with UBC - Climate Change Impact Visualization• Working group approach: Adaptive capacity Are + Non- we • Working group established for Climate stress climate stresses = Potential impacts Possible actions Can we do it? Challeng es/ vulne rable each priority area (5-8 people) Timeframe – Now + 5 years Barriers ? • Vulnerability assessment based on worksheets developed by each Future Timeframe – 2020 to 2050 working group • 2-3 working group meetings to assessment vulnerability 18 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 19. 19 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 20. City of Rossland• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment• Half day workshop• 3 different colour dots: • Present • 20 years in the future • 50 years in the future• Result – Low, medium, or high rating for risk and vulnerability Planning Area Future Climate Change Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Impact/Opportunity (High, Medium, Low) (High, Medium, Low) (Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity) Food Security Extreme events resulting in road Medium – Highway Medium – There are Medium closures and regional food crews and transport several transportation shortage (filled in for example) trucks are ready to deal routes including air in an with winter storms; but emergency; grocery temporary road closures stores have some have occurred in the supplies as do individual past. households 20 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 21. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process1. Get Started2. Learn About Climate Change3. Identify Community Priorities4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan 21 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
  • 22. Summary: Challenges Multitude of methodologies for community-based RVA Integration of adaptation strategy into existing policy and planning framework Incorporating climate change opportunities into adaptation strategy - - - “RISK” Vulnerability assessment approach is overly „academic‟ and complicated  Is it valid?22 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 23. Summary: Lessons Learned Communities are highly flexible:  Ability to interpret complex assessment criteria and make it work for rural communities Community-driven approach:  Local steering committees  Community involvement Mainstreaming:  Increased awareness and understanding of climate change impacts = integrating climate change impacts and adaptations into day-to-day planning and operations 23 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 24. Conclusion• Process Matters! • Regardless of outcome, risk/ vulnerability assessment was an extremely important learning and capacity building tool 24 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 25. Thank You25 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
  • 26. Selected References• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November 22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website: www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11, 2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developers Risk Management Guide. 26 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada