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The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years [Maria Ananicheva]
 

The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years [Maria Ananicheva]

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The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years. Presented by Maria Ananicheva at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years. Presented by Maria Ananicheva at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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    The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years [Maria Ananicheva] The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years [Maria Ananicheva] Presentation Transcript

    • The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 yearsMaria D. Ananicheva, Gregory Kapustin, Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia Perth, September 2010
    • Some general evidence Koryak Highlands Located: on the North-east Asia, within the territory of Chukotka and Kamchatka autonimic districts, on the coast of the Bering Sea between the Gulf of Anadyr and Kamchatka Peninsula. Consists of short ridges, ridges of medium height. The length of the upland is 880 km, width up to 270 km. Height varies from 600 to 1800 m (The highest point is 2,562 m - Ledyanaya Mountain). The main ranges: Vetveysky (height 1,443 m), Pahachinsky (to 1715 m), Pylginsky (up to 1355 m), jutting into the sea by Gauvin peninsula , Olyutorskij (up to 1558 m), forming Oljutor Peninsula Neprokhodimy (up to 1450 m), Koyverlansky (up to 1062 m), South Mainsky (1265 m), resting into Mainsky Plateau (Parhanoy Plateau), Snegovoy and Ukaelyat ranges (glaciated).
    • Data about glaciers of Koryak UplandModern glaciers were discovered by geologists in the late 1930s;• In 1955 A.P. Vaskovsky published the results of laboratory calculations of glaciers, based on aerial photography, he mentioned 480 glaciers and snow patches of the area ~ 185 sq.km.3 years later, M. I. Malyh was there and he counted 282 glaciers in the area of 60-63 ° N and 166.5-176.5 E, among them - the valley morphological type and a variety of corries (circus type).N.M. Svatkov conducted field work on 3 glaciers of the Koryak Upland in 1961, he was the main author of Koryak Upland Volume of the Inventory of Glaciers of the USSRInventory of the glaciers of the USSR, Volume 20, Part 1, Koryak Upland:At the time of its publication the Koryak Upland contains 715 glaciers (author NM Svatkov). Dated by 1950Glaciers were indentified by topographic maps, compiled mainly basing on aerial photo surveys.Why is such a big difference in the estimates?
    • Researchers came in this area only in 1990-s. Various geomorphological objectshave been studied, in particular rock glaciers (Galanin, 2005). By Galanin, thenumber of REAL glaciers is close to what is indicated in the end of 1950s by M.I.Malykh (282 glaciers of 180 km2 in area ) • Regions of rock glaciers of different types and glaciers spreading over north-eastern Asia (Galanin, 2005) 1 – regions of spreading active and dead rock glaciers, mainly near-slope type; 2 – regions of contemporary glaciarization according to other researchers; 3 – main watershed and the boundary between Arctic and Pacific glaciologic basins; 4 – areas of discovery and field studies of rock glaciers: Б – Bahapchinskie Mountains; И – Iskaten Range; К – Koni Peninsular; М – Meynypelgynsky Mountain Massif; П – Provedenskiy Mountain Massif; Пе – Pekulney Range; Х – Khasynsky Range; Ки – Kilgansky Mountain Massif;
    • I. Determining the present state of Koryak glaciersThe vastness of KoryakUpland, therequirements of highresolution and coverageof surveys, as well astime, suitable forshooting glaciersdefined our choice:We used satellite data 2002_08_15ASTER 2002 -ASTERLandsat, and Terra /Aqua (EOS AM-1) andASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne ThermalEmission and ReflectionRadiometer).Both individual images,and their mosaics werestudied 2008_07_29Landsat 2008- Landsat
    • 3D surfaces: glaciers of Koryak Upland3d_1LandsatFor 3 D we used SRTM30 We have found only 237 glaciers. Considered space surveys of the same plots in different years, but in the same season. Season is from late July to early September. There is this time when the most heat- resistant snow and ice bodies could be revealed in those areas. If at least one of the periods of observation any traces of glaciers were found, it means that a glacier existed in this place… or do not exist or disappeared (melted), and all subsequent formations are just snow patches.
    • Why it was found ~3 times lesser glaciers in the Koryak Upland (2003) than - by N.V. Svatkov (in the Inventory of glaciers) ?• According to Galanin A.A. (2005) When the Inventory of glaciers were rock glaciers are located in prepared many snow patches were GLACIER zone, so it is easy to take taken for glaciers..Since that time they them for glaciers melt out … Climate is changing, however no• There is no data in the USSR intensive warming here.. Glacier Inventory about rock glaciers, so it is impossible to The question remains open… indentify their locations
    • Absolute and relative reduction (S )of Koryak glaciers: Number of Are a of glaciers by the Are of glaciers, Mean Mean glaciers USSR Glacier Inventory, 2003, km2 absolute relative 1950-EPS, S, km2 S, % km2 243 176.6 54.4 0.56 66.5The total retreat of the glaciers of this region varied from 40 to 69 % ascompared to aerial photography surveys (1950).This is the most intense reduction among the studied glacier systems of theRussian Subarctic.However we can’t exclude errors of the area meanings on the date of Inventorycreation, having in mind “exaggeration” of glacier number by account of rockglaciers and snow patches.Therefore the assessment of area reduction about 66% we consider preliminaryand required checking.N.M. Svatkov personally studied a number of glaciers around peak Ledyanayain situ (Svatkov, 1965, Svatkov, Tsvetkov, 1965). For those glaciers thereduction is 40-50% compared with 2003. It is never the less, a large value.
    • The analysis of the retreat (reduction in area) of Koryak glaciers by groups with the same morphological type and the same aspect Mean relative dS (%) dependence of Morphological type Maximal reduction is attributed to the 80 glaciers of N and NE aspects. 70 The greatest warming within Russia ocurred along the latitudinal belt 55-62º 60 N, to the north and south the temperature 50 increase is not so pronounced but takes 40 place (Shmakin, 2009) 30 Relative retreat of glaciers by aspect,% . Относительное отступание ледников по экспозици 20 В 80,00 10 70,00 60,00 0 Asymmetric Valley Corrie-valley Compound Corrie Corry- Near-slope Cirque Hanging ЮЗ З 50,00 Corrie Hanging 40,00Linear trends for the recent 30 years: from 1.5°С/30 yr to 0.2°С/30 yr, both 30,00 20,00for Тyear, and for Тsum air temperature. 10,00 0,00The trends indicates long lasting warming in this region, but catastrophic scale Ю Сof glacier reduction can be explained only by sharp decrease of precipitation(or errors in the Inventory values).The total PCP records (from weather stations) for the recent 30 years indeedshows negative trends here: from - 60 до - 250 mm/ 30 years. СЗ СВ
    • Russian Mountain Glacier system Modern Period from dS, km2 dS, % area, km 2 toSubArctic GlaciersChange by area (dS) Suntar-Khayata 162.2 1945-2003 -37.2 19.3 Mountains Chersky Range 113.0 1970-2003 -43 28 Byrranga 24.4 1967-2003 -5 16.5 Mountains Korayk Upland 37.3 1950-2003 -109 66.5
    • II. The evolution of the Koryak glaciers in the near future• Significant reduction of Koryak glaciers We allocated 8 glacier motivated us to estimate the near future systems for projection evolution of GLACIER SYSTEMS of this of glacier development: region. 1 Basin Machevna- Apuka• The term “glacier system” is considered as a set of rivers glaciers united by their common links with the 2 Basin of Anivayam River environment: the same mountain system or – Machevana Bay archipelago location and similar atmospheric circulation patterns. The glaciers are related to each 3 Glacier system of Pikas – other usually by parallel links from atmospheric inputs Uekalyat ranges and topographical forms to hydrological and 4 Glaciers of Vatyna River topographical outputs, and demonstrate common basin spatial regularities of glacier regime and other features. 5 Glaciers of Snegovoy- Uekalyat ranhes• The method was published in ( Ananicheva, 6 Basin of Olyutorskiy Inlet 2009), but we develop it from application to application onto various mountain regions 7 Basin of Apukavayam• We used AOGCM – ECHAM5 (B1) as a River climate development scenario 8 Basin of Korf Inlet
    • 2.1 Balance profiles constructed by climate data and modelled (upper points) data for glacier systems of Koryakia: baseline period and projected by the model ECHAM5, B1Profiles of А (ablation) - by Тsum, depending on a set of ice Glacier system of Korf Inletfacies ( cold or warm glaciers). 6000Тsum at low levels – by weather stations, lapse rate of Тsum= from 0,4°С до 0,6°С/100 м 5000For upper levels – by distant stations and lapse rate close to 4000dry-adiabatic (0,74°С/100m) depending on elevation and Aclimate dryness. C А, С мм 3000 A prInto Тsum we introduced the correction on cooling of air by C prglacier surface (Tg for each elevation interval of the system 2000by formula Tg = 0.85Tng – 1.2 (Davidovich, Ananicheva, 10001996). Ablation was calculated by empiric formula: 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 А = 1.33 (Тsum + 9,66)2,83 (Krenke, 1982) Elevation, m asl Profiles of С (accumulation) - by А=С at mean for a glacier system ELA. Lower ELA – by observed P and coefficient of concentration of snow on glaciers (Kc) There is no direct data about P on high levels. We used modeled values of P, calculated by ( Krenke, Mikhailov, 1986) specially for this region. Кс depends on the glacier size and has constant meaning for various morphological types of prevailing glaciers in the system ~ 1.4-1.8
    • Glacier system of Korf Inlet Glacier system of Pikas-Uekalyat ranges 2300 1150 1900 Elevation, m asl Elevation, m asl 950 1500 750 1100 550 350 700 150 300 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Area, sq. km Area of ice, sq. km2. 2 Hypsographic schemes for each system ---to understand ice distribution after the reduction of glaciers in the systemMethod of hypsographic schemes construction: summarizing areas by elevationinterval ( 200 m) for entire number of glaciers of the given system with use oftopo-maps, satellite images, DEM, geometric schemes of glaciers in the USSRGlacier Inventory.For Koryak Upland we used already NEW data, obtained by Landsat andASTER
    • Assessment of the evolution of Koryak Upland glacier systems up to 2049-60. In given work we used a GCM of Max Plank Institute - ECHAM5 (B1) as the climatic scenario The resolution of the model is 2.1°х2.1° in geographic coordinates, that is up to now the most frequent grid-net of model outputs for AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model). These outputs are presented on the site:http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/echam5.html Among the outputs important for mass balance of glacier systems parameters – mean monthly ( summer) temperature – Тsum-pr and total precipitation P tot-pr (projected) were applied.
    • Model values:Тsum : from 6,7 to 10,6°С(in northern regions the temperature will be higher than in the south of Korak Upland),P tot-pr: 400 - 700 mm/yr(maximum- in the center and east of the region). Ледниковая система - бассейн залива Корфа 2.3 The elevation of the glacier 1600 termini (Нend), necessary for 1400 calculation of area change 1200 under any scenario of climate 1000 A Высота, м development, - by the formula, 800 C Apr deriving from the hypotheses of 600 Cpr Gether-Kurowsky about twice ELApr 400 more retreat of glacier terminus 200 as compared to its ELA: 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Hends = ELAp – (Hhigh – ELA) = 2 ELA - Hhigh А, С мм The share of reduction of the area by elevation between the termini level and upper points of the glacial system ----by empirical data For Koryak glacier systems morphological type glaciers - cars and different subtypes of cars are characteristic, we analyzed the results of repeated surveys by altitude for 3 glaciers- corries (Polar Urals) (Tsvetkov, 2006). The average difference between the areas before and after warming represents a curve of distribution of ice under glaciers retreat, which is parameterized by parabola, shifted to the top (of the glacier system).
    • Change the basic characteristics of the Koryak glacier systems to 2040-2069 (ECHAM5, B1) Glacier system The shift of The elevation range Glaciated area, Ablation and Balance, cm yr-1 *** Нela of the glacier km2, % accumulation at the (from base system, m ELA, mm to projected period), Baseline Projecti Baseline Projection Baseline Projecti Baseline Projecti m ** on period, Period, km2 period on period on period period km2 (%) period period Koryak UplandPikas’-Uekalyat 970 33,7 33.7(100) 1500 2050 -19.58 399.0ranges -200* 1200Uekalyat – Snegovoy 960 18,9 9.04(47.6) 1750 2250 2.36 106.6ranges 343 600Vatyna River basin -56 720 880 11,3 11.2 (99.2) 710 1450 75.04 111.8Anivayam- Machevna 500 3,9 2.97 (76.1) 2400 2650 5.50 6.25rivers basin 83 120Machevna- Apuka 880 1.92 (99.5) 1850 2100 5.45 -27.13rivers basin 142 1000 1,93Apukavayam River 980 15,8 15.8(100) 620 1480 30.37 14.5basin -225 1320Oyutorsky Inlet basin 1070 6,8 2.8 (41.2) 720 2920 12.19 0.35 293 500Basin of Korf Inlet 108 740 520 12,22 10.1(55.8) 460 2310 17.51 13.8 *- minus means descend of the ELA ** - baseline period for climate (1960-91), the glaciers’ state is determined by space images on 2003 *** - balance was calculated as a difference between ablation and accumulation Totally, the area loss up to 2070 will reach only 17% as compared with baseline period
    • ConclusionsFirst time since 1950 the area and number of glaciers of Koryak Highlands are defined by satelliteimagery, dated by 2003. Comparison with the Inventory of glaciers of the USSR showed a largediscrepancy, both in a number of glaciers,Significant retreat can hardly be fully explained by climate change, taking place there. However, thetrend to a decrease in precipitation and increased temperature of the warm period until the notes onmost of the region adjacent to the meteorological stations.An approach to project the evolution of glaciated mountain systems of Eurasian subarctic is presented.Despite the rather "warm" scenario in general, we have obtained varied picture of glaciologicalcharacteristics for glacier systems in the region.Precipitation factor is important, since the Koryak Upland is in the area with low rainfall, the monsoonsdo not get there. Aleutian Low, unlike Icelandic Low, does not persist there in the warm half of a year.Some (2) systems will not be feathered by the reduction of glaciers and their ELA even will fall as aresult of relatively high precipitation; the rest systems (6) will demonstrate the area reduction and therise of the ELA as high as 100-400 m.The overall decrease of glacier area of Koryak Upland will be only 17% of current value.Small decrease of the area, according to the model ECHAM 5, leads to the conclusion that the results ofthe comparison of state of glaciers by the images and Inventory (decrease in area by about 50-70% over50 years), most likely is related to some errors in determination of areas in the Inventory - theiroverestimation due to difficulties of differentiation of snow from an ice surface.In any case, a small upcoming change can testify that the glaciers already by 2003, had entered a phaseof compliance with the climate.
    • Future plansApplication of an ensemble of models - as the climate scenario,both for warming and coolingEstimation of the volume of glaciers in the glacial systems of the nearfuture:According to the Inventory of glaciers and the present estimates ofvolumes for different types of mountain glaciers it is possible to plot therelationship between the volume and area in the system by breakingthem into certain parts so as to cover the entire range of projectedsystems (excluding the volcanoes).In case of the ice mass loss in glacier systems (Russian mountainsystems of Sub Arctic)- to assess the melt runoff and its contribution to sea level rise Thank you for your attention!