Will Miller
Ohio University
The Bush Style
The decision is the central presidential act
Control the big picture, delegate the details to those under...
Benefits of the Bush style
Don’t mess with Texas approach in a NASCAR nation
“Horse sense”
Successfully implemented muc...
Problems with the Bush style
Assigns tasks and considers then job done since he has
delegated it (i.e. Mike Brown and Kat...
Present Study
What individual-level factors shape feeling
thermometer ratings of George W. Bush?
2000 Like Count 2004 Like Count
Honest/sincere; man of integrity 147 Decisive/aggressive 128
Good Republican 90 Handles te...
Methods
Goal is to compare 2000, 2004, 2008
Questions have to be asked in all three waves of ANES
Dependent Variable: F...
Independent Variables
 Bush Affect: Angry
 Bush Affect: Hopeful
 Bush--Moral
 Bush--Knowledgeable
 Bush--Intelligent
...
2000 Model
Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score
Bush Affect: Hopeful (6.889)
Party ID (3.774)
Bush Affect:...
2004 Model
Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score
Party identification (9.136)
Bush—Moral (7.892)
Bush Affec...
2008 Model
Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score
Party identification (4.637)
Bush Affect: Hopeful (3.205)
...
Conclusions
General issue stances do not appear to matter as
much as we may think in the classical recursive
Candidate t...
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Millerwilliam 090724172615-phpapp01
Millerwilliam 090724172615-phpapp01
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Evaluating the George W Bush Presidency 2009 Conference

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  1. 1. Will Miller Ohio University
  2. 2. The Bush Style The decision is the central presidential act Control the big picture, delegate the details to those under him Run a tight shaped based on loyalty to the man, mission, and message Decide quickly and do not turn back Thinks in black-white dichotomy with moral rhetoric framing all decisions CEO/MBA President: Command-Control v. Consensual leadership
  3. 3. Benefits of the Bush style Don’t mess with Texas approach in a NASCAR nation “Horse sense” Successfully implemented much of his agenda His values are known and consistent  Family, faith, integrity Sets agenda, articulates vision, and leads Active recruiter of staffers that are right for specific situation He is as loyal to his staff as he expects them to be to him
  4. 4. Problems with the Bush style Assigns tasks and considers then job done since he has delegated it (i.e. Mike Brown and Katrina) Wants realistic alternatives and plans, but will not engage those who could help (i.e. Tom Murtha and the Iraq War) Fails to adapt policies in light of new evidence Works hard, but typically on subjects he knows well Will move forward without public support
  5. 5. Present Study What individual-level factors shape feeling thermometer ratings of George W. Bush?
  6. 6. 2000 Like Count 2004 Like Count Honest/sincere; man of integrity 147 Decisive/aggressive 128 Good Republican 90 Handles terrorism better 121 Family 69 Honest/sincere; man of integrity 116 Pro-lower taxes 67 General assessment 76 Record of public service 62 Handles Iraq better 70 2000 Dislike Count 2004 Dislike Count Dishonest/insincere; no integrity 101 Handles Iraq worse 353 A Republican 93 Dishonest/insincere; no integrity 97 Pro-big business 88 Economy worse under him 60 Favors death penalty 75 Pro-big business 60 Unintelligent/stupid/dumb 65 Unintelligent/stupid dumb 41
  7. 7. Methods Goal is to compare 2000, 2004, 2008 Questions have to be asked in all three waves of ANES Dependent Variable: Feeling Thermometer of Bush 30% of respondents go with polar answers (0 or 100)  Huge standard error OLS Regression
  8. 8. Independent Variables  Bush Affect: Angry  Bush Affect: Hopeful  Bush--Moral  Bush--Knowledgeable  Bush--Intelligent  Economy Past Year  Economy Next Year  Social Service Spending  Defense Spending  Party ID  Age  Married  Education  Income  African-American  Gender
  9. 9. 2000 Model Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score Bush Affect: Hopeful (6.889) Party ID (3.774) Bush Affect: Angry (-3.540) Bush—Moral (2.241)
  10. 10. 2004 Model Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score Party identification (9.136) Bush—Moral (7.892) Bush Affect: Hopeful (7.199) Bush Affect: Angry (-6.902) Bush—Knowledgeable (4.906) Bush—Intelligent (3.392) Economy Past Year (3.257) Defense Spending (3.139) African American (2.721)
  11. 11. 2008 Model Significant Predictors and Corresponding t-score Party identification (4.637) Bush Affect: Hopeful (3.205) Bush Affect: Angry (-2.436)
  12. 12. Conclusions General issue stances do not appear to matter as much as we may think in the classical recursive Candidate traits and psychological responses of respondents are more telling than literature may suggest More than just partisanship

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