Traffic Growth and Transportation Safety in the Bakken Oil Producing Region

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USDOT Safety Council hears update on Bakken Traffic, as part of his presentation Feb. 28, UGPTI Director Denver Tolliver also described the new ND Transportation Safety Advisory Committee.

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Traffic Growth and Transportation Safety in the Bakken Oil Producing Region

  1. 1. Traffic Growth and Transportation Safety in the Bakken Oil Producing Region Denver Tolliver Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University 1
  2. 2. Introduction  Director: Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI), North Dakota State University  Director: Mountain-Plains Consortium (MPC), Region 8 University Transportation Center (NDSU)  Consortium member: Small Urban & Rural Livability UTC (Montana State U.); NTI • UGPTI’s Lakewood CO center develops/updates FMCSA software: (1) inspection apps: e.g., Aspen, ISS, QC; (2) investigative apps: e.g. , CAPRI, CDLIS Access, UFA, CaseRite 2
  3. 3. 10,000-12,000 feet beneath surface Shale Oil Formations in North Dakota 3 • Tight rock formation • Hydraulic fracturing • Horizontal drilling North Dakota Oil and Gas Division
  4. 4. Horizontal versus Vertical Wells 8-12 horizontal wells per 1,280 acre spacing unit Vertical Well 4 Horizontal Well
  5. 5. Production Trends and Potential ND is producing roughly 1 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD) Production may increase to 1.6 million BOPD Dept. of Mineral Resources projects 10-14 billion barrels of technically recoverable reserves Industry projections (e.g., Continental Resources) are much higher—e.g., 20+ billion barrels Continental Resources estimates in-place oil reserves of 900 billion barrels 60,000 new wells will be drilled over next 20-30 years See following production charts        5
  6. 6. Annual Oil Production: North Dakota 300 Million barrels 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 North Dakota is second leading state in oil production
  7. 7. Number of Oil Wells: North Dakota 90 80 Hundreds of Wells 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1990 7 1995 2000 2005 2010 Currently: 10,000+ producing wells 2015
  8. 8. Critical Highway Transportation Issues       8 Unprecedented heavy truck traffic levels on twolane rural roads 1st slide following: shows truck ADT projections on oil routes vs. traditional farm-to-market roads Percent trucks 40% to 50% in many cases Highways deteriorate quickly under heavy loads; insufficient roadway widths result in narrow shoulders Truck severe injury crashes in oil region increased by 1200% from 2008 to 2012, vs. 147% increase for remainder of the state over the same period See trend (2nd slide following) and map of crashes (3rd slide following)
  9. 9. Avg. Projected Truck ADT on County Roads for Three Heavily Impacted Oil Counties (with Control Case) 9 Slope County (not impacted by oil production) illustrates traditional truck traffic levels
  10. 10. Motor Carrier Crashes in North Dakota
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. Materials and Product Flows  Inputs (e.g., sand, water, chemicals) move to well site for hydraulic fracturing and production  Specialized equipment (drilling and workover rigs) move to and from well site  1st slide following shows 2,300 drilling-related truck trips per well  Outbound crude initially moves by truck to pipeline or rail transfer location (2nd slide following); may shift to small diameter pipe later in production cycle  Outbound byproducts: e.g., salt water 12
  13. 13. Drilling Related Truck Movements per Well Input or Byproduct Water (Fresh) Water (Waste): Out Frac Tanks Sand Scoria/Gravel Rig Equipment Drilling Mud Cement Pipe Other 13 Loaded Trucks 450 225 115 100 80 65 50 20 15 30 1,150 Loaded Trucks 2,300 Loaded and Empty Trucks
  14. 14. Current Mode Share Crude Oil Gathering Movement Movements from Wells to Transfer Locations 27% 73% 14 North Dakota Pipeline Authority Truck Pipeline
  15. 15. Crude Oil Mode Shares: Line Haul    Currently 69% rail Near-term projection: 90% rail Reasons for rail dominance      15 Limited pipeline capacity (sized to historical production) Challenges/length of time in siting and constructing new pipelines Greater ease in capacity expansion of railroads Lower cost of rail expansion Rail access to a wider variety of markets → premium prices
  16. 16. North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines 16 North Dakota Pipeline Authority – Feb., 2013
  17. 17. System Capacities (Input not Throughput) 1600 Pipeline forecast uncertain Thousand Barrels per Day 1400 1200 1000 800 Pipeline 600 Rail 400 200 0 2006 17 2008 2010 2012 North Dakota Pipeline Authority 2014 2016
  18. 18. Rail Movements      Shipments in multicar units or trainloads (e.g., 100+ cars) Current share in ND ≈ 1,000 railcars per day Equivalent to ten 100-car trains/day If railroads maintain 70%+ share, could have 16-20 trainloads per day of crude oil at peak Questions/potential issues  Line capacity: other goods  Tankcar standards  Transload capacity  Accident exposure (train-miles)  Service levels and priorities  Grade crossings  Classification/placarding 18  Risk assessment/routing
  19. 19. Hazmat Concerns    Bakken light crude: volatility and precise chemical composition Disposal of saltwater fracing mix Reduction in flaring: leads to more natural gas processing (LNG of CNG transport)  Fractionation: (NGLs)    Ethane (C2), Propane (C3), and Butane (C4) Grade crossings: increasing truck and train traffic at traditional low-volume crossings Emergency preparedness and response   19 Pipeline spills Train and truck movements through cities
  20. 20. ND Transportation Safety Advisory Committee Members        ND Highway Patrol NDDOT ND Emergency Services FHWA Division FMCSA Division FRA Division  Chief Inspector  Grade crossing PHMSA Region 20 Missions      Gather input Fact finding Promote safety Develop research and technical assistance work plan for MPC/UGPTI Leverage industry resources

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