Infrastructure Needs:
North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal
Roads & Bridges
2015-2034
June 25, 2014
Upper Great Plains...
Contents
• History/purpose of road studies
• Data collection/field studies
• Major factors influencing results
• Analysis ...
Road Infrastructure Studies
• 2010 study: UGPTI estimated road
investment needs for the 2011 session
– 21,500 new wells & ...
Study Horizon
• 20 year time frame
• Traffic and investment needs estimated
annually
• Results summarized by:
– Biennium
–...
pg. 5
Key Factors in Road Study (1)
Oil and Gas Agriculture
Number of wells Cultivated acres
Well locations Crop mix
Produ...
Key Factors in Road Study (2)
Slide 6
Traffic Road
Truck trips Surface type
Truck axles/weights Width & design
ESALs Age &...
pg. 7
Data Sources (1)
Oil production ND Oil & Gas Division
Pipeline/transload
network
ND Pipeline Authority
Base road net...
pg. 8
Data Sources (2)
Traffic Vehicle counts and
classifications
Surveys/elevator reports
Paved road condition Pathways/s...
2013
Slide 9
1000+ counts
670 classifications
Pavement Data Collection
• Condition data
– NDDOT Pathway van
– Summer/fall 2013
– 4,786 miles of paved county roads
• Pav...
Slide 11
Pavement Data Collection
• Non-destructive testing - verify prior estimates on subgrade
strength
– Falling Weight Deflecto...
Modeled Movements
• Agriculture
– Wheat (including durum), corn, soybeans,
barley, canola, sunflowers, sugar beets,
potato...
Agriculture Production Forecasts
• Production data: ND-NASS
• Production estimated at township level
• Elevator and plant ...
Oil Development
• 2,300 truck trips per new well (drilling
related)
– 3 million gallons of freshwater
– 4 million pounds o...
Forecasting/Modeling Process
Slide 16
Trips generated Trips originated or terminated
E.g., wells and farms
Trips attracted...
Oil Exploration Traffic Projections
Slide 17
Example of
predicted
traffic flows
over road
network
Crude oil
movements
Crop Movement Projections - Wheat
Slide 18
Unpaved Road Analysis
• Unpaved road miles grouped by traffic
volume categories
• “Normal” practices established for each
...
Unpaved Improvement Types
• Traffic Category Improvement
– Low: low volume average
– Baseline: county average
– Elevated: ...
To Pave or Not?
• Conversion of gravel roads to hot mix
asphalt (HMA) not directly considered,
except for highest traffic ...
Life Cycle Cost Comparison
Slide 22
Slide 23
Unpaved Road Investment Needs (millions)
Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil
2015-2016 $548.0 $299.4 $248.6
2017-2...
Paved Road Analysis Steps
• AASHTO 1993 Design Guide
• Predict year & type of improvement
• Improvement threshold based on...
25
0.645
1
1.47
2.09
2.89
Single Axle Load in Thousand Pounds
16 18 20 22 24
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
ESAL Factors: Single Axle
Paved Road Improvements/Maint.
• Improvement type
– Overlay
– Sliver widening
– Reconstruction
– Mine & blend
• Normal mai...
Paved Road Improvement Criteria
• Reconstruction
– Condition and traffic volume
– Subgrade modulus
– Rutting
• Mine & Blen...
28
Pavement Serviceability Rating (PSR)
PSR Range General Rating
5 to 4 Very Good
4 to 3 Good
3 to 2 Fair
2 to 1 Poor
1 to...
29
Effects of Soil Support
Resilient Modulus (thousand psi)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
pg. 30
Paved Road Improvements
Type Miles Percent
Resurface 5,005 88.1%
Reconstruct 253 4.5%
Mine/Blend 219 3.9%
Widen 201...
pg. 31
Paved Road Investment Needs (millions)
Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil
2015-2016 $377 $186 $191
2017-2018 $323 $...
Bridge Analysis
• NBI: county and local
• Open bridges (other than culverts):
2,556
• Not considered: recently replaced or...
Bridges Costs (1)
• Unit cost model
– Based on 2011-2014 NDDOT bid reports
– Discussed with NDDOT & counties
– Includes ap...
Bridges Costs (2)
• Rehabilitation
– Deck widening 50% replacement cost
– Deck replacement 45% replacement
cost
• Preventi...
Bridge Investment Needs
• 2015-2034: $327 million
• 77% of costs for replacements
• Backlog of 480+ bridges
• Backlog spre...
Next Steps
• Feedback from Legislature, NDDOT,
and counties
• Written report/documentation (July
8)
• Detailed maps and da...
Questions?
Denver Tolliver
701-231-7190
denver.tolliver@ndsu.edu
www.ugpti.org/
Addendum
• Consideration of converting very
high traffic (500+ trucks/day)gravel
miles to asphalt
• 37 miles @ $1.5 millio...
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Infrastructure Needs: North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal Roads & Bridges, 2015-2034

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UGPTI Director Denver Tolliver shared preliminary results of a study on infrastructure needs of North Dakota’s county, township and tribal roads and bridges with the ND Legislature Budget Section and Economic Impact Committee. The study projects investments that will need to be made over the next 20 years to maintain and upgrade those bridges and paved and unpaved roads.

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Infrastructure Needs: North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal Roads & Bridges, 2015-2034

  1. 1. Infrastructure Needs: North Dakota’s County, Township, & Tribal Roads & Bridges 2015-2034 June 25, 2014 Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University
  2. 2. Contents • History/purpose of road studies • Data collection/field studies • Major factors influencing results • Analysis procedures/models • Results and distributions of impacts – Region – Time period • Next steps Slide 2
  3. 3. Road Infrastructure Studies • 2010 study: UGPTI estimated road investment needs for the 2011 session – 21,500 new wells & increased ag. production • 2012 study: updated investment needs – 46,000 new wells, ag. production, & initial bridge study • Current study: more comprehensive data – Higher roadway costs, ag. production, & 60,000 new wells Slide 3
  4. 4. Study Horizon • 20 year time frame • Traffic and investment needs estimated annually • Results summarized by: – Biennium – Region • Detailed results (by) – County – Jurisdiction Slide 4
  5. 5. pg. 5 Key Factors in Road Study (1) Oil and Gas Agriculture Number of wells Cultivated acres Well locations Crop mix Production rate/curve Yield Inputs/outputs Crop densities Gathering pipeline Elevator network
  6. 6. Key Factors in Road Study (2) Slide 6 Traffic Road Truck trips Surface type Truck axles/weights Width & design ESALs Age & condition Avg. Daily Traffic Soil
  7. 7. pg. 7 Data Sources (1) Oil production ND Oil & Gas Division Pipeline/transload network ND Pipeline Authority Base road network NDDOT GIS Hub Crop production USDA-NASS Elevator demand ND PSC
  8. 8. pg. 8 Data Sources (2) Traffic Vehicle counts and classifications Surveys/elevator reports Paved road condition Pathways/surveys Paved road structure Falling Weight Deflector Ground Penetrating Radar Unpaved roads Surveys
  9. 9. 2013 Slide 9 1000+ counts 670 classifications
  10. 10. Pavement Data Collection • Condition data – NDDOT Pathway van – Summer/fall 2013 – 4,786 miles of paved county roads • Pavement and shoulder width data – Scaled from video images – 4500 miles Slide 10
  11. 11. Slide 11
  12. 12. Pavement Data Collection • Non-destructive testing - verify prior estimates on subgrade strength – Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) – Western ND – all rural pavements not recently improved, not under construction, and not in failure state (785 mi) – Eastern ND – selected based on agricultural production facilities and other major traffic generators (734 mi) Slide 12
  13. 13. Modeled Movements • Agriculture – Wheat (including durum), corn, soybeans, barley, canola, sunflowers, sugar beets, potatoes, & beans – Fertilizer movements – Transshipments • Oil Exploration/Production – Freshwater, sand, equipment, supplies, pipe, outbound saltwater, & outbound crude oil Slide 13
  14. 14. Agriculture Production Forecasts • Production data: ND-NASS • Production estimated at township level • Elevator and plant demands from NDPSC and industry groups • Forecasts of future production, yield and mix derived from multiple sources – USDA/NASS – NDSU/Extension – Industry Slide 14
  15. 15. Oil Development • 2,300 truck trips per new well (drilling related) – 3 million gallons of freshwater – 4 million pounds of sand • Initial production (IP) rate varies by county • Outbound oil to transload locations – Base year: 67% truck, 33% pipe – 2024: 20% truck, 80% pipe, – 2,400 new miles of gathering pipeline/year Slide 15
  16. 16. Forecasting/Modeling Process Slide 16 Trips generated Trips originated or terminated E.g., wells and farms Trips attracted Rail & pipeline transfer facilities Grain elevators Routes taken Fastest path Truck trips: segment Oil-related, ag.-related, other Calibration Traffic data Truck types and loads Annual ESALs
  17. 17. Oil Exploration Traffic Projections Slide 17 Example of predicted traffic flows over road network Crude oil movements
  18. 18. Crop Movement Projections - Wheat Slide 18
  19. 19. Unpaved Road Analysis • Unpaved road miles grouped by traffic volume categories • “Normal” practices established for each county based upon traffic observations and reported maintenance practices • For traffic volumes above normal levels responses for oil impacted roads used to establish upper categories of maintenance Slide 19
  20. 20. Unpaved Improvement Types • Traffic Category Improvement – Low: low volume average – Baseline: county average – Elevated: county average increased by 50% – Moderate: county average increased by 100% – High: county average increased by 150%, dust suppressant – Very high: county average increased by 200%, dust suppressant Slide 20
  21. 21. To Pave or Not? • Conversion of gravel roads to hot mix asphalt (HMA) not directly considered, except for highest traffic roads • Needs for the significantly increased gravel maintenance may be sufficient for paving of some road segments • Surface type choice left to county – Reflect practices and local issues – Coordination with an overall planning effort Slide 21
  22. 22. Life Cycle Cost Comparison Slide 22
  23. 23. Slide 23 Unpaved Road Investment Needs (millions) Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil 2015-2016 $548.0 $299.4 $248.6 2017-2018 $547.9 $299.2 $248.7 2019-2020 $547.5 $298.6 $248.9 2021-2022 $545.6 $296.6 $249.0 2023-2024 $541.9 $292.7 $249.2 2025-2034 $2,667.5 $1,422.9 $1,244.6 2015-2034 $5,398.4 $2,909.4 $2,489.0
  24. 24. Paved Road Analysis Steps • AASHTO 1993 Design Guide • Predict year & type of improvement • Improvement threshold based on pavement condition • Year of improvement based on: – Existing structural capacity – Existing condition – Forecasted ESALs Slide 24
  25. 25. 25 0.645 1 1.47 2.09 2.89 Single Axle Load in Thousand Pounds 16 18 20 22 24 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 ESAL Factors: Single Axle
  26. 26. Paved Road Improvements/Maint. • Improvement type – Overlay – Sliver widening – Reconstruction – Mine & blend • Normal maintenance – Chip seals – Crack sealing and patching – Other Slide 26
  27. 27. Paved Road Improvement Criteria • Reconstruction – Condition and traffic volume – Subgrade modulus – Rutting • Mine & Blend – Condition and traffic volume – Widening needed but thin/weak base • Overlay – Pavement condition Slide 27
  28. 28. 28 Pavement Serviceability Rating (PSR) PSR Range General Rating 5 to 4 Very Good 4 to 3 Good 3 to 2 Fair 2 to 1 Poor 1 to 0 Very Poor
  29. 29. 29 Effects of Soil Support Resilient Modulus (thousand psi) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
  30. 30. pg. 30 Paved Road Improvements Type Miles Percent Resurface 5,005 88.1% Reconstruct 253 4.5% Mine/Blend 219 3.9% Widen 201 3.5%
  31. 31. pg. 31 Paved Road Investment Needs (millions) Period Statewide Oil Patch Non-Oil 2015-2016 $377 $186 $191 2017-2018 $323 $120 $203 2019-2020 $285 $158 $127 2021-2022 $236 $133 $103 2023-2024 $138 $52 $86 2025-2034 $1,326 $513 $812 2015-2034 $2,685 $1,162 $1,522
  32. 32. Bridge Analysis • NBI: county and local • Open bridges (other than culverts): 2,556 • Not considered: recently replaced or minimum maintenance roads • Improvements considered: replacement or rehabilitation • Maintenance Slide 32
  33. 33. Bridges Costs (1) • Unit cost model – Based on 2011-2014 NDDOT bid reports – Discussed with NDDOT & counties – Includes approach roadway, engineering, etc. • Replacement cost projections: – Bridges: $250-$275/sf. deck area – Culverts: $400,000-$600,000 /project Slide 33
  34. 34. Bridges Costs (2) • Rehabilitation – Deck widening 50% replacement cost – Deck replacement 45% replacement cost • Preventive maintenance – Annualized maintenance cost $0.24 per sq. ft./year – $0.29 per sq. ft. deck washing/sealing Slide 34
  35. 35. Bridge Investment Needs • 2015-2034: $327 million • 77% of costs for replacements • Backlog of 480+ bridges • Backlog spread over 5 biennia • Approx. $70 million per biennium Slide 35
  36. 36. Next Steps • Feedback from Legislature, NDDOT, and counties • Written report/documentation (July 8) • Detailed maps and data tables posted on webpage (July 8) • Additional study requests Slide 36
  37. 37. Questions? Denver Tolliver 701-231-7190 denver.tolliver@ndsu.edu www.ugpti.org/
  38. 38. Addendum • Consideration of converting very high traffic (500+ trucks/day)gravel miles to asphalt • 37 miles @ $1.5 million/mile = $58M Slide 38 Category 2014 Dollars 2015-2016 Biennium Gravel Needs $548M Gravel to Pavement $58M Paved Needs $377M Total Road Needs $983M

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