Social Casino GamesGaining the Edge throughPredictive Personalization5 ‘Easy’ Steps to a Higher ROIAlan Avidan, PhD, MBA, ...
Overview 1 – Current• 5 ‘Easy’ Steps to Reaching higher ROI ?Get game, ROI goals, KPIs, Game Elements, & Optimize• Optimiz...
• Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a to Model Game• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, CSTR• ...
Gaining The Edge: Steps 1-33. Identify KPIs that Embody Your GoalsARPU %PAY ARPPU DAUDAU/MAUK-FactorAvgSessionTime# ofConc...
Gaining The Edge: Steps 4-55. Optimize the Chosen ElementsAnalytics(manually)A/B Testing(one-size-fit-all)A PrioriAttribut...
3rd Party Data‘Tons’ of User Data, EverywhereFacebook DataFriendsInfluenceLikesInterestsPostsEventsBehavioral DataSpending...
KPIs ≡ Optimization ObjectivesMonetization• Revenue/Profit• ARPU/ARPPU• %PAY• % WhaleRetention• DAU/MAU• DX• Visits/DAU• C...
Optimization Technologies:Analytics(Source: apsalar)Funnels, Cohorts, FiltersChangeMeasureDisplayAnalyzeDecide
Optimization Technologies:A/B and Multi-Variate Testing20% CTR10% CTRPayment pageAPayment pageBWinner: Payment page BDeplo...
Optimization technologies:A Priori, Rule-Based SegmentationPayment pageAPayment pageB
Optimization Technologies:Clustering Segmentation
Advanced algorithms find correlations between user data DNA and conversionsUsers Social andBehavioral DataUsers DNAGenerat...
Optimization Technologies:Predictive Personalization
Monetization - Payment PageDifferent OrderVariant 1Prices from lowest to highestVariant 2Prices from highest to lowest(Slo...
Monetization - Payment PageDifferent IncentivesOption 4Incentive in absolute numbersOption 3Incentive in percentage(Slotol...
Q: Why is Predictive PersonalizationMore Effective?A: Delivers Persistent Lift Above A/B TestingEasiest to Deploy, Predict...
• Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a Holistic Game Model• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, ...
Modeling Games:Local and Global OptimizationWhy do we need a game model?To determine the time behavior of all KPIin respon...
What is a Game Model?A Set of Equations Describing all Userinflows and Outflows, Conversion RatesModeling GamesLocal and G...
What are we optimizing?Normally, We Maximize a ProfitFunction While Keeping the ControlVariables within BoundsModeling Gam...
Recap:Gaining the Edge via OptimizationNow:• Follow the 5-step process to increase game ROI• Use Spot Optimizations to rai...
Gain the Edge – Use Optimization
Thanks!Bees And PollenPlease share:
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Social Casino Games - Gaining the Edge using Predictive Personalization

596

Published on

0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
596
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
33
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Social Casino Games - Gaining the Edge using Predictive Personalization

  1. 1. Social Casino GamesGaining the Edge throughPredictive Personalization5 ‘Easy’ Steps to a Higher ROIAlan Avidan, PhD, MBA, Executive Director, Bees and Pollenalan@BeesAndPollen.com
  2. 2. Overview 1 – Current• 5 ‘Easy’ Steps to Reaching higher ROI ?Get game, ROI goals, KPIs, Game Elements, & Optimize• Optimization Technologies TodayAnalytics, A/B Testing, Segmentation, Predictive Personalization• We Need Player Data for OptimizationKPIs and user data• Why Predictive Personalization is More Effective
  3. 3. • Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a to Model Game• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, CSTR• Local and Global Optimization ….Overview 2 – A Peak Ahead
  4. 4. Gaining The Edge: Steps 1-33. Identify KPIs that Embody Your GoalsARPU %PAY ARPPU DAUDAU/MAUK-FactorAvgSessionTime# ofConcurrentPlayersDx ChurnAbandonRate2. Identify GoalsMonetization:Revenue or Profit?Retention Engagement Virality1. Get Yourself a GameDevelop White-label Acquire
  5. 5. Gaining The Edge: Steps 4-55. Optimize the Chosen ElementsAnalytics(manually)A/B Testing(one-size-fit-all)A PrioriAttributeSegmentationClusteringSegmentation(OMG! Big data)PredictivePersonalizationthe Game Elements that Drive the Selected KPIsChoose.4PaymentPagesLocal orUSDcurrencyShopCalls-to-ActionCasinolobbychoicesorder ofunlockedslotsFastPlay tutorial OpenGraph
  6. 6. 3rd Party Data‘Tons’ of User Data, EverywhereFacebook DataFriendsInfluenceLikesInterestsPostsEventsBehavioral DataSpendingBetsBalanceWinning %Played GamesSession DataTime of dayDayDurationGeo-Demographic DataAgeGenderEducationCountryIP addressProprietarySegmentationData:(e.g., WhalesMinnows,Influencer)IncomeLevelEducation
  7. 7. KPIs ≡ Optimization ObjectivesMonetization• Revenue/Profit• ARPU/ARPPU• %PAY• % WhaleRetention• DAU/MAU• DX• Visits/DAU• Churn RateEngagement• Abandon Rate• Session Time• Drop-off RatesVirality• K-Factor• Invites/DAU• Acceptance RateAcquisition• CPA, CPI• Abandon RateTraffic• DAU/WAU/MAU• # Concurrent
  8. 8. Optimization Technologies:Analytics(Source: apsalar)Funnels, Cohorts, FiltersChangeMeasureDisplayAnalyzeDecide
  9. 9. Optimization Technologies:A/B and Multi-Variate Testing20% CTR10% CTRPayment pageAPayment pageBWinner: Payment page BDeploy Winner
  10. 10. Optimization technologies:A Priori, Rule-Based SegmentationPayment pageAPayment pageB
  11. 11. Optimization Technologies:Clustering Segmentation
  12. 12. Advanced algorithms find correlations between user data DNA and conversionsUsers Social andBehavioral DataUsers DNAGenerationPredictive Best-FitAlgorithmsOptimization Technologies:Predictive PersonalizationOption AOption BOption C
  13. 13. Optimization Technologies:Predictive Personalization
  14. 14. Monetization - Payment PageDifferent OrderVariant 1Prices from lowest to highestVariant 2Prices from highest to lowest(Slotolotto)
  15. 15. Monetization - Payment PageDifferent IncentivesOption 4Incentive in absolute numbersOption 3Incentive in percentage(Slotolotto)
  16. 16. Q: Why is Predictive PersonalizationMore Effective?A: Delivers Persistent Lift Above A/B TestingEasiest to Deploy, Predict Behavior
  17. 17. • Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a Holistic Game Model• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, CSTR• Local and Global Optimization ….Overview 2 – Peak Ahead
  18. 18. Modeling Games:Local and Global OptimizationWhy do we need a game model?To determine the time behavior of all KPIin response to different scenariosTo use numerical search optimization algorithmsto find optimal operating conditions
  19. 19. What is a Game Model?A Set of Equations Describing all Userinflows and Outflows, Conversion RatesModeling GamesLocal and Global Optimization
  20. 20. What are we optimizing?Normally, We Maximize a ProfitFunction While Keeping the ControlVariables within BoundsModeling GamesLocal and Global Optimization
  21. 21. Recap:Gaining the Edge via OptimizationNow:• Follow the 5-step process to increase game ROI• Use Spot Optimizations to raise relevant KPIs• Predictive Personalization is the most efficientAhead:• Solve your game model to predict all KPIs• Use Local and Global Search Optimization tofurther boost profitability
  22. 22. Gain the Edge – Use Optimization
  23. 23. Thanks!Bees And PollenPlease share:
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×