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Social Casino Games - Gaining the Edge using Predictive Personalization
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Social Casino Games - Gaining the Edge using Predictive Personalization

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  • 1. Social Casino GamesGaining the Edge throughPredictive Personalization5 ‘Easy’ Steps to a Higher ROIAlan Avidan, PhD, MBA, Executive Director, Bees and Pollenalan@BeesAndPollen.com
  • 2. Overview 1 – Current• 5 ‘Easy’ Steps to Reaching higher ROI ?Get game, ROI goals, KPIs, Game Elements, & Optimize• Optimization Technologies TodayAnalytics, A/B Testing, Segmentation, Predictive Personalization• We Need Player Data for OptimizationKPIs and user data• Why Predictive Personalization is More Effective
  • 3. • Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a to Model Game• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, CSTR• Local and Global Optimization ….Overview 2 – A Peak Ahead
  • 4. Gaining The Edge: Steps 1-33. Identify KPIs that Embody Your GoalsARPU %PAY ARPPU DAUDAU/MAUK-FactorAvgSessionTime# ofConcurrentPlayersDx ChurnAbandonRate2. Identify GoalsMonetization:Revenue or Profit?Retention Engagement Virality1. Get Yourself a GameDevelop White-label Acquire
  • 5. Gaining The Edge: Steps 4-55. Optimize the Chosen ElementsAnalytics(manually)A/B Testing(one-size-fit-all)A PrioriAttributeSegmentationClusteringSegmentation(OMG! Big data)PredictivePersonalizationthe Game Elements that Drive the Selected KPIsChoose.4PaymentPagesLocal orUSDcurrencyShopCalls-to-ActionCasinolobbychoicesorder ofunlockedslotsFastPlay tutorial OpenGraph
  • 6. 3rd Party Data‘Tons’ of User Data, EverywhereFacebook DataFriendsInfluenceLikesInterestsPostsEventsBehavioral DataSpendingBetsBalanceWinning %Played GamesSession DataTime of dayDayDurationGeo-Demographic DataAgeGenderEducationCountryIP addressProprietarySegmentationData:(e.g., WhalesMinnows,Influencer)IncomeLevelEducation
  • 7. KPIs ≡ Optimization ObjectivesMonetization• Revenue/Profit• ARPU/ARPPU• %PAY• % WhaleRetention• DAU/MAU• DX• Visits/DAU• Churn RateEngagement• Abandon Rate• Session Time• Drop-off RatesVirality• K-Factor• Invites/DAU• Acceptance RateAcquisition• CPA, CPI• Abandon RateTraffic• DAU/WAU/MAU• # Concurrent
  • 8. Optimization Technologies:Analytics(Source: apsalar)Funnels, Cohorts, FiltersChangeMeasureDisplayAnalyzeDecide
  • 9. Optimization Technologies:A/B and Multi-Variate Testing20% CTR10% CTRPayment pageAPayment pageBWinner: Payment page BDeploy Winner
  • 10. Optimization technologies:A Priori, Rule-Based SegmentationPayment pageAPayment pageB
  • 11. Optimization Technologies:Clustering Segmentation
  • 12. Advanced algorithms find correlations between user data DNA and conversionsUsers Social andBehavioral DataUsers DNAGenerationPredictive Best-FitAlgorithmsOptimization Technologies:Predictive PersonalizationOption AOption BOption C
  • 13. Optimization Technologies:Predictive Personalization
  • 14. Monetization - Payment PageDifferent OrderVariant 1Prices from lowest to highestVariant 2Prices from highest to lowest(Slotolotto)
  • 15. Monetization - Payment PageDifferent IncentivesOption 4Incentive in absolute numbersOption 3Incentive in percentage(Slotolotto)
  • 16. Q: Why is Predictive PersonalizationMore Effective?A: Delivers Persistent Lift Above A/B TestingEasiest to Deploy, Predict Behavior
  • 17. • Beyond Spot - Local and Global Optimization• We Need a Holistic Game Model• Our First Test Model: Mass-Action Kinetics, CSTR• Local and Global Optimization ….Overview 2 – Peak Ahead
  • 18. Modeling Games:Local and Global OptimizationWhy do we need a game model?To determine the time behavior of all KPIin response to different scenariosTo use numerical search optimization algorithmsto find optimal operating conditions
  • 19. What is a Game Model?A Set of Equations Describing all Userinflows and Outflows, Conversion RatesModeling GamesLocal and Global Optimization
  • 20. What are we optimizing?Normally, We Maximize a ProfitFunction While Keeping the ControlVariables within BoundsModeling GamesLocal and Global Optimization
  • 21. Recap:Gaining the Edge via OptimizationNow:• Follow the 5-step process to increase game ROI• Use Spot Optimizations to raise relevant KPIs• Predictive Personalization is the most efficientAhead:• Solve your game model to predict all KPIs• Use Local and Global Search Optimization tofurther boost profitability
  • 22. Gain the Edge – Use Optimization
  • 23. Thanks!Bees And PollenPlease share: