Agile estimation

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  • How many passengers can travel in each of these?Boeing 747 – Between 400 and 600. Max Take off weight: 750-950,000 lbs.Airbus A 380 – Between 500 and 800. Max Take off weight: 1.2 – 1.3 million lbs.Cruise ship – Approximately 2000.
  • How many room does this hotel have? Why did it become a little more difficult this time? (Never seen this building before? No idea of it’s scale? Not sure what’s inside of it?)
  • What’s the problem in estimation here? We know what it is, we have the history, so why can’t we be certain?
  • Agile estimation

    1. 1. www.AgileMontage.com
    2. 2. Size? Effort? Complexity? Time?
    3. 3. Factor Range Developer Skill 1-10x Domain Knowledge 1-5x Stated customer wants vs. needs 1-3x Unarticulated details by business 1-3x Underlying platform quality 1-3x No historic data 1-4x Compound 1 – 5000x
    4. 4. “Just-a-second syndrome.” Keeps the work environment healthy. Scope is determined. Highlights areas of concern/risk. Polishes stories. Rocks, stones, and sand.
    5. 5. S, M, L, XL Lacks mathematical convenience. Linear Assumes uniform effort steps. Fibonacci Reduces the illusion of additive mathematics.
    6. 6. Absolute Planning Poker Affinity
    7. 7. • Avoid it • Overhead • Inspires bad behavior – Developers cut corners – Start lying • Derive it rather than track it
    8. 8. • Usually not estimated – Time for root cause analysis is unpredictable – Or, you know where the problem lies • Start defect fixing in first few iterations – Improves estimation and team culture
    9. 9. www.AgileMontage.com
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