M.Sc thesis Presentation

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Future Energy Scenario of Nigeria till 2020

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M.Sc thesis Presentation

  1. 1. Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria: Development of Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria Thesis Submitted in the Master of Science Programme Environmental and Resource Management By Ubong S. Simon (Mat’l No.: 2411604) Supervisors Professor Dr.-Ing. G. Lappus Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus Chair of Control Engineering Dr.-Ing. Jörg Becker Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus Center of Human Ecology 15.01.2009
  2. 2. Contents € Introduction and Methodology € Objectives and Scope of the Study € Energy supply and demand of Ghana and Nigeria € West Africa Gas Pipeline Project € Energy supply plan for Nigeria € Implications € Conclusion € References Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 2
  3. 3. Introduction Methodology Energy Resources in Based on: Ghana and Nigeria € The Economic and €Fossil fuels population growth rates €Hydro € Energy data of 2007 €Wood Electricity € Establishment of energy Financial and demand scenarios till 2020 political issues € Development of energy supply plans using scenarios (low, base, and high) Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 3
  4. 4. Objectives and Scope of the Study Objectives of the study € Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) € Contribution of non-hydro renewables in TPES of Nigeria € Environmental costs Scope of the study € Energy potential of Nigeria € Nuclear energy Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 4
  5. 5. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria Energy Supply in TPES of Ghana in % (2003) Ghana 32 Fire wood •Energy resources 9 9 Petroleum 59 Electricity •TPES •Electricity generated from: Electricity consumption by 68% hydro, and sector in % (2005) 32% thermal 37 Industry •End-use energy 14 14 Household distribution 49 Commercial Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 5
  6. 6. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria Energy Supply in Nigeria •Energy resources •TPES (103.785 Total Primary Energy Mtoe) Supply in % (2005) Hydro 13,9 Gas 7,5 91,8 77,9 0,7 Oil Wood Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 6
  7. 7. Energy Supply and Demand of Ghana and Nigeria Electricity Electricity Supply in % (2005) Installed electricity capacity (2006) 63 Hydro •6000 MW 22 22 Gas Available capacity Oil 15 •3600 MW Access to electricity Petroleum End-use Hydro Gas Products Wood Coal Total Total end-use energy Cooking/Lighting 0 3.2 9.3 87.5 0 100 Electricity 15 63 22 0 0 100 Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 7
  8. 8. West Africa Gas Pipeline Project West Africa Gas Pipeline company (WAGPCo) •Owned by participating companies •675 Km of gas pipeline •Initial capacity of 170 MMSCF/day of gas •85% for power generation •Estimated cost of about US$480 million •2006 Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 8
  9. 9. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria Projected Total Primary Energy Supply of Nigeria Determinants of Future 250000 Energy 200000 TPES (Ktoe) •Population and economic 150000 growth 100000 *TPES Low (3.5 %) *TPES Base (5.0%) (144.7 M in 2006, and 201.6 M in 50000 *TPES High (6.3 %) 2020) 0 •Technological change 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year •Resource base and environment Future Energy Demand for PROJECTED FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND Nigeria (2008-2020) •TPES of 2007 (106.379 Mtoe) 25000 using 3 economic growth 20000 scenarios (3.5%, 5%, and 6.3%) 15000 MW •166.375, 200.593, and 235.390 Low (3.5 %) 10000 Mtoe in 2020 Base (5.0%) 5000 Electricity High (6.3 %) 0 •18,856 MW in 2020 for the 5% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 scenario YEAR Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 9
  10. 10. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria Future Energy Year TPES (Mtoe) Coal Nat. Gas Hydro Oil Nclear N. Ren Wood Supply for Nigeria . 2008 111.697 - 9 1.2 14.1 - - 75.7 €TPES 2009 117.282 - 10.5 1.7 14.3 - - 73.5 Using 5% base scenario 2010 123.146 0.5 12 2.2 14.5 - 0.2 70.6 % share of : 2015 157.170 3 19.5 4.7 15.5 0.5 1.2 55.6 •Natural gas •Coal 2016 165.028 3.5 21 5.2 15.7 1 1.4 52.2 •Nuclear 2017 173.280 4 22.5 5.7 15.9 1.5 1.6 48.8 •Wood •Oil 2018 181.944 4.5 24 6.2 16.1 2 1.8 45.4 •New Renewable 2019 191.041 5 25 6.7 16.3 2.5 2 42 •Hydro 2020 200.593 5.5 27 7.2 16.5 3 2.2 38.6 Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 10
  11. 11. Energy Supply Plan for Nigeria Future Energy Supply for Nigeria €Electricity Using 5% base scenario 10,500 MW in 2008, and 18,856 MW in 2020 New renewables •Solar energy •Wind, etc Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 11
  12. 12. Implications € Investment and financing € Technology € Cost of supplying energy € International trade € Environmental impact Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 12
  13. 13. Conclusion € Enormous energy resources € Fossil fuels € West Africa Gas Pipeline Project € Non-hydro renewable € Economic affordability Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 13
  14. 14. References € AKINBAMI, J.F.K (2001): Renewable Energy Resources and Technologies in Nigeria: Present Situation, Future Prospects and Policy Framework in “Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change”. Kluwer. Netherlands. 6: 156-160 € EIA/IEA (2007): International Energy Outlook 2007. Energy Information Administration. Washington D. C. DOE/EIA-0484 (2007). pp. 39-45 € KRUGER, P. (2006): Alternative Energy Resources. The Quest for Sustainable Energy. John Wiley. New Jersey. pp. 45-46 € NAKICENOVIC, N., A. Grübler, and A. McDonald (1998): Global Energy Perspectives. Cambridge. UK. pp. 97-136 € OECD/IEA (2003): Energy to 2050. Scenarios for a Sustainable Future. OECD. Paris. pp. 14-27 € SAMBO, A. S. (2005): Renewable Energy for Rural Development: The Nigeria Perspective. ISESCO. Nigeria. pp. 12-17 Natural Gas Potential of Nigeria. Development of 15.01.2009 Future Energy Supply Plan for Ghana and Nigeria 14

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