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Global insights audio-slides-07-20-11
 

Global insights audio-slides-07-20-11

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  • On the right the July Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined sharply to 63.8 from 71.5 in June.In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment and gasoline prices. However, even with lower gasoline prices, consumer sentiment declined sharply.Some of the decline in July may be related to the as-yet-unresolved debt-ceiling debate as well as the second month of weak jobs growth, economists say. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence numbers dropped significantly AGAIN in June. What stands out to me is that against comparable prints taken at financial crises and tragedies of the past such as the October 1987 markets crash, Desert Storm, LTCM, the dot com collapse, September 11, Katrina, and Lehman they are WORSE and getting WORSE!
  • We are back to the range of lows in 2008 and 1980-82This mirrors my Technical Analysis Stock Index charts in REAL terms versus Reported Nominal terms. To me what stands out is the close overlay it is to the Secular Bear Market I believe began in December 1999 and was made evident with the March 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst.
  • We are back to the range of lows in 2008 and 1980-82This mirrors my Technical Analysis Stock Index charts in REAL terms versus Reported Nominal terms. To me what stands out is the close overlay it is to the Secular Bear Market I believe began in December 1999 and was made evident with the March 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst.
  • Americans haven’t felt this bad in almost three decades. The Misery Index is the highest since May 1983 when unemployment was 10.1 percent, inflation was 3.5 percent and the economy was recovering from the 1981-82 recession. The CHART shows the correlation between the U.S. Misery Index, or the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, and measures of consumer confidence.The Misery Index stands at 12.8, the highest in 28 years. Consumer sentiment slumped in July to the lowest level in more than two years, a report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan showed last week
  • SPENDING AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW!The above chart takes a stab at linking confidence and spending, with the red figure measuring the 12-month change in personal consumption expenditure (adjusted for prices). ADDITIONALLYThe Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is lower than it was at the start of the year.
  • Nick Clegg UK, Deputy PM: 'I fear we're on the brink of another financial crisis'AMBROSE EVANS PRITCHARDA modest proposal for eurozone break-up - The eurozone can in theory still be saved, if two sets of conditions are fulfilled; if the leaders of Germany, Austria, Finland, and the Netherlands accept fiscal union and a common pooling of debt, and can persuade their parliaments and courts to ratify such a revolution. Given that these sovereign diets will not efface themselves lightly, the wise course is to prepare for an orderly break-up of monetary union. Only one option can be orderly. Germany and its satellite economies must withdraw from EMU, leaving the Greco-Latin bloc with the residual euro and the institutions of monetary union. Let us call the legacy group the "Latin Union" in memory of its 19th Century forebearMEETING SCHEDULE:A flurry of options are being considered as governments scramble to narrow their differences ahead of an emergency summit of euro-zone leaders Thursday. Senior finance ministry officials and aides to the heads of government will meet Wednesday in Brussels to try to hammer out a deal. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is set to travel to Berlin on Wednesday to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in a last-minute attempt to find a compromise solution before the summit.  SUMMIT: On the table for the summit are: Finding ways to come up with around €120 billion ($169 billion) that Greece will need through the end of 2014, beyond what has already been committed by euro-zone governments and the International Monetary Fund. Various proposals to trim the amount of debt Greece must repay to creditors to get financing costs down, A Novel French Idea - Continue to use public money to finance Greece, but collect part of it through a tax on banks or other financial-system actors.
  • Ireland joined Portugal and Greece to become the third euro-area nation to be reduced to non-investment grade.  Ireland's rating was lowered to Ba1 from Baa3 on after the markets closed July 12th, 2011.  Moody's had previously cut Ireland's credit rating two levels on April 15 to the lowest investment grade.  Moody's said that reason for the downgrade was a growing possibility that once the current €85bn European Union/ International Monetary Fund rescue package ends in 2013, Ireland is likely to need further bail-outs before it can return to the bond market.I haven’t shown them but our listeners should note that: German, UK CDS Surge By 50% In Two Weeks
  • Europe's Stress to Continue - The real value of the tests will come in the asset disclosures that accompanied the results. That could prove a double-edged sword if it causes investors and depositors to lose confidence in banks whose governments lack the means to recapitalize them. But that merely underlines the extent to which the euro-zone banking crisis and sovereign-debt woes are intertwined.
  • Portuguese debt was reduced to non investment grade with a four notch reduction by Moody's on July 6th, 2011. This left Portugal completely at the mercy of an EU / IMF bailout. Portugal's new leader Pedro Passos Coelho followed very quickly with a public announcement on July 19th, 2011 that the nation was to brace for further austerity measures after his government discovered a "colossal" €2bn (£1.7bn) hole in the public accounts left by the outgoing Socialists.  There is growing rancor in Lisbon over the term of the €78bn rescue by the EU and the International Monetary Fund, and the sweeping powers of the inspectors as they impose a "structural adjustment" on the economy.  The penal rate of interest charged by the EU is expected to top 5.5pc and risks trapping the country in debt-deflation. At the same time fiscal austerity, without offsetting monetary stimulus or devaluation, may tip the economy into an even deeper downturn.  Portugal is obliged to cut the budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP this year under its rescue terms. This looks like a Sisyphean task since the deficit was still 8.7% in the first quarter, and further austerity will have the side-effect of choking tax revenue.  The experience of Greece is that the country can find itself chasing its tail, with the deficit remaining stubbornly high in a shrinking economy. Portugal's central bank said the economy will contract a further 1.8% next year.
  • Spain has entered the danger zone for yield levels especially on the 10YSpain (and likely soon Italy) has entered this territory of yield where there is a growing risk that a large systemic risk event is plausible in the near term and if not then in a matter of weeks.Tomorrows meeting is critical!
  • 10 YEAR LONG TERM NOTESThe EU 60% RuleSince the government pays the interest through taxes and typically the government is smaller than 25% of the Economy, with interest payments being an even smaller part, it suggests 60% is about the realistic limit. (With GDP equal to interest rates)At 100% GDP Growth must be larger that Interest Rates So they simply must get the total debt down so the arithmetic approaches something approximating realistic GDP growth and historical interest rates.Simply can’t be done without a major haircut

Global insights audio-slides-07-20-11 Global insights audio-slides-07-20-11 Presentation Transcript

  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT & EU BONDS
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT
    63.8 FROM 71.5 in June
    58.6 in June from 66.0 in April
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS: Greece
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS: Ireland
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS: Italy
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS: Portugal
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS: Spain
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    GIIPS
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
  • This chart is from the discussion recordedJuly 20th, 2011
    FOCUS: SENTIMENT & EU BONDS
    Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights