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Et110902 nl 110711_round_table_f Et110902 nl 110711_round_table_f Presentation Transcript

  • Dutch Chemical Industry Vision 2030/50 Round Table11 July 2011, Den Haag
  • Today’s objectives• Present a summary of the current situation and key trends in the European and Dutch chemical industry• Present summary of possible scenario‟s (2030/50) for the future of the chemical industry• Discuss the impact of the scenarios on the vision for the Dutch Chemical industry1 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn2 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • IntroductionsRound Table Participants• Don Huberts (Linde Gas) • Peter Bertens (Nefarma)• Fer Klinckhamers (Tronox Pigments) • Rein Coster (VNCI)• Hans Vreeswijk (Croda) • Theo Olijve (LyondellBasell)• Jaap Oldenziel (Air Liquide) • Thomas Deman (ExxonMobil)• Jan Smook (MSD) • Wim Pielage (Elementis Specialties)• Joost Berting (Eastman) • Vincent Oomes (Deloitte)• Joke Driessen (Shell) • Willem Vaessen (Deloitte)• Jos van Damme (Yara Sluiskil) • Peter Sanders (Deloitte)• Marc van Doorn (OCI Agro) • Eva Warnaar (Deloitte)• Mark Vester (Sabic)• Melt de Haas (ARKEMA)• Paul Evers (BASF)3 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn4 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • VNCI wants to create a shared view on the Dutch Chemical Industry in2030/50 within the European context• The Chemical Industry is critical for the Dutch economy, but is going through profound changes• The VNCI wants to ensure that key players inside and outside the sector remain committed to it• This requires alignment around a common long term view on the industry, going beyond the current asset base• The VNCI Vision 2030/50 should include: - Current position and importance of the Dutch Chemical Industry - Scenarios for 2030/50 related to - Macro trends - Innovation and Knowledge - Products and Applications - Feedstock and Assets - A description Dutch Chemical Industry in 2030/505 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Today’s workshop provides critical input for the VNCI Vision 2030/50VNCI Vision 2030/50 development process Project set-up, Strategic Radar Round tables Interviews key VNCI Conferencedesk research and workshops with all VNCI players in Dutch interviews with Members Chemical Industry thought leaders AkzoNobel DSM 1. Innovation Round table 1 Shell and knowledge SABIC Dow 2. Products and ExxonMobil Round table 2 applications 3. Feedstock and Round table 3 assets Current situation Scenarios for the First vision for the Validated vision for Final vision for the and views from NL Chemical industry in 2030/50 the industry in industry in 2030/50 others Industry 2030/50 2030/506 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • In the roundtables we would like to discuss the potential impact of trends onthe Dutch Chemical industryThe VNCI Radar Screen Business models Enabling Raw technologies materials outlook Regulation Renewable 3. Feed- 1. Innova- feedstock stock and tion assets and R&D infra- know- structure Global The future of ledge logistics the NL and EU Chemical Industry? Open Sustain- innovation ability 2. Products and Demand applications Competing by sector technologies Demand by New users, geography New usage Population7 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn8 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • De chemische industrie in NW-EU bekleedt een sterke positie in een snelveranderende omgeving Chemische industrie nu Beschrijving • NW EU bekleedt een sterke positie op de wereldmarkt voor chemie, gebaseerd op een belangrijke exportrelatie met in het bijzonder de VS • Het sterk geïntegreerde NW EU-cluster produceert een heel breed spectrum van chemische producten, wat een voortdurende focus op de ontwikkeling van specialiteitschemicaliën mogelijk maakt Macro Innovatie en kennis Producten en Grondstoffen en toepassingen bedrijfsmiddelenEnkele trends • BBP-verschuiving • Convergeren van • Toenemende focus op • Nieuwe groei vanvoor de periode naar het oosten technologieën duurzaamheid petrochemischetot 2030/50 • Groeiende en • Nieuwe • Producten die bedrijfsmiddelen in Azië vergrijzende hulptechnologieën aansluiten bij en het Midden-Oosten bevolking komen op macrotrends • Diversificatie van • Toenemende (materiaaltechniek en (vergrijzende bevolking, grondstoffen nano- en voedselschaarste, (schaliegas, teerzand, schaarste van energietechnologie , hulpbronnen koolstofarme technologie duurzaamheid, enz.) biomaterialen etc.) (energie, grond, en biotechnologie en • Nieuwe technologieën • Schaliegas in VS zou water, zeldzame farmaceutica, enz.) (biotechniek, gevolgen kunnen aardschatten) • Veranderend gebruik supermoleculaire chemie, hebben voor procesintensificatie) • Toenemende druk van intellectueel exportpositie EU eigendom en • Convergentie van op het milieu en • Miniaturisatie van opkomende open eindmarkten klimaatverandering nieuwe bedrijfsmiddelen innovatiemodellen • Eindmarkt verschuift gestimuleerd door de • ... • ... naar het oosten trend naar • ... specialiteitsproducten • ...9 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nuDe Nederlandse chemische industrie heeft de afgelopen twintig jaar haarrelatieve aandeel in de Europese markt vergrootOmzet chemische industrie* (€ miljard) 2.043 CAGR ‟91-‟09 CAGR ‟91-‟09 1.925 1.871 1.790 4,8% Afrika 3,5% 1.636 Oceanië 3,6% 1.450 1.416 1.438 Latijns-Am 5,5% 1.362 1.329 Noord-Am 3,7% 1.157 1.105 1.166 VS 3,2% 1.000 1.021 Europa 3,7% 951 880 810 815 NL 3,0% FR 1,6% DE 1,4% Azië 7,5% JP 0,5% CN 15,9% 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 NL 2,7% 2,6% 2,1% 2,2% 2,4% 2,2% 2,2% 2,2% 2,1% 2,3% 2,2% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,0% Aandeel van totaal EU 38% 39% 35% 36% 37% 37% 35% 36% 35% 33% 34% 35% 36% 35% 33% 32% 32% 31% 27%Bron: Cefic Chemdata International* Omzet wordt bepaald aan de hand van de productiewaarde10 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nuEuropa heeft haar sterke positie in de wereldwijde chemische industrieopgebouwd als netto-exporteur van chemische producten...Chemische handelsbalans EU* (€ miljard) 600 Export buiten de EU Export binnen de EU 500 Binnenlandse omzet 126 130 120 Import buiten de EU 109 400 95 105 117 100 104 104 70 70 78 300 55 59 45 46 54 241 263 268 48 117 130 133 159 159 162 163 189 220 60 98 99 222 200 63 79 65 100 190 181 168 177 183 182 181 170 164 180 177 167 161 159 153 150 143 150 109 0 -29 -30 -28 -33 -37 -37 -45 -49 -50 -61 -63 -63 -62 -66 -72 -81 -90 -91 -75 -100 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Buiten 15% 16% 17% 17% 16% 17% 19% 19% 21% 22% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 26% (%) Binnen 20% 22% 23% 25% 29% 29% 32% 35% 36% 37% 37% 37% 38% 42% 46% 47% 50% 49% 50% (%)* Europese UnieBron: Cefic Chemdata International11 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nu...naar de VS, Latijns-Amerika, Afrika en het Midden-OostenChemische handel 2009 in miljard US$ 60 96 83 45 59 73 19 17 19 16 17 20 3 2 Interregionale handel 19 Intraregionale handelBron: WereldhandelsorganisatieOpmerking: bij Europa is de handel van het Gemenebest van Onafhankelijke Staten inbegrepen12 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nuDe traditionele grondstoffen zijn sterk geconcentreerd in het Midden-Oostenwaardoor chemische fabrieken daar concurrentievoordeel hebben...Olievoorraden Gasvoorraden Koolvoorraden 1.333 187 826.001 42 8 15.006 33.399 1.22173 172 9 41 7 1.106 61199 15 154 8 40 103 7 14 16 Biljoen kubieke meter 1.029 246.097 1.004 39 69 137 8 36 13 89 98 117 128 6 12 Duizend miljoen vaten 126 9 Miljoen ton 96 84 93 5 12 772 72 143137 10 10 39 59 72 109 9 11 63 667 102 81 82 95 57 10 34 3 259.253 81 10 56 92 63 3 6 27 57 10 8 57 53 79 6 55 99 4 756 754 660 663 697 40 33 73 76 432 59 272.246 362 45 38 25 28 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 Latijns-Amerika Noord-Amerika Afrika Azië-Pacific Europa* Midden-Oosten* Inclusief EuraziëBron: BP Statistics13 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nu...samen met de eindmarktontwikkelingen verklaart dit de toenemendeethyleenproductie in het Midden-Oosten en AziëMidden-Oosten (x1000 ton) West-Europa (x1000 ton) 100 100 75 75 50 50 0% +11% 37 39 40 34 33 33 33 31 27 30 31 31 32 33 33 30 29 29 29 25 21 25 16 18 19 11 13 13 14 15 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012ENoord-Amerika (x1000 ton) Azië (x1000 ton) 100 100 87 89 90 83 +7% 75 75 72 67 -1% 62 56 51 50 45 46 46 45 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 42 42 50 43 46 36 38 41 25 25 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012EBron: Deloitte-analyse PVC HDPE LLDPE LDPE Styreen Ethyleenglycol Etheenoxide14 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nuBinnen Europa bevindt Nederland zich echter in een goede positie enkan het aandeel veroveren op andere Europese producenten Ethyleenproductiekosten (US$/ton)2.100 Nederland1.400 Noordoost- Noord- Azië Amerika Europa Zuidoost-Azië 700 Midden- Oosten 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Cumulatieve ethyleencapaciteit (miljoen ton)Bron: APIC CMAI, gesprekken met deskundigen, Deloitte-analyse15 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nuDeze positie op de kostencurve is te danken aan sterk onderlingsamenhangende productiefaciliteiten... RAPL (ruwe olie) Stoomkraker PALL (nafta)Productiecapaciteit voor ethyleen in 2010 Pijpleiding voor industriële Olefineverbruiker(s) gassen NL-BE-DE Raffinaderij Raffinaderij + olefineproducent Pijpleiding voor ethyleen vertegenwoordigt 44% van de capaciteit Pijpleiding voor propyleen Rest van Europa Noorwegen Zweden Rotterdam Pernis Marl Nederland Moerdijk Verenigd Koninkrijk Gelsenkirchen Vlissingen Rheinberg België Terneuzen Polen Antwerpen Tsjechische Republiek Meerhout Tessenderlo Duitsland Duinkerke Keulen Geleen Roemenië Frankrijk Oostenrijk Beringen Hongarije Spanje Feluy Jemeppe Wesseling Italië Frankfurt 3.000 MT LudwigshafenBron: CMAI, Deutsche Bank, Deloitte-analyse16 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Chemische industrie nu...en relatief grote fabriekenAlkanen (butaan/propaan/ethaan) Ontvlambare vloeistoffen (op naftabasis) 2.500 2.500 2.000 2.000 Capaciteit, x1000 ton Capaciteit, x1000 ton NL 1.500 1.500 BE NL DE 1.000 1.000 NL 500 500 0 0 Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EULiquevicaties (procesgestuurd in plaats van opslag) Gas, mengsels en overig 2.500 2.500 2.000 2.000 Capaciteit, x1000 ton Capaciteit, x1000 ton 1.500 1.500 DE 1.000 1.000 DE 500 500 0 0 Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EUBron: CMAI Deloitte-analyse17 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • MacrotrendsIn de toekomst zal de economische macht naar verwachting verschuiven naar hetoosten; in 2050 zal Azië bijna 50% van de wereldeconomie vertegenwoordigen Bevolking in miljard Energieverbruik in biljard Btu Reëel BBP in biljoen US$ (2005)* 3,7 7,0 9,5 473 591 739 12 38 160 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 10% 5% 3% 15% 6% 6% 3% 3% 4% 21% 8% 6% 9% 22% 20% 26% 24% US 5% 8% 35% 34% 18% 5% 11% 8% 20% 23% 3% 6% 5% 28% 3% 4% 6% 7% 4% JP 7% 11% 6% 10% IN 58% 61% 58% 50% 8% 45% 37% 12% 29% CN 14% 9% 1970 2010 2050 2005 2020 2035 1970** 2009** 2050 Afrika Latijns-Amerika Noord-Amerika Europa Azië-Pacific* Inclusief G20-landen, exclusief de Europese Unie als geheel** In 1970/2007 vertegenwoordigde de G20 (excl. EU) respectievelijk 80% en 79% van het totale BBPBron: United Nations World Populations Prospects 2009, Worldbank, Carnegie World Order in 2050, EIA18 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • MacrotrendsDe toenemende bevolking vergrijst en zal voor het merendeel in stedelijkegebieden wonen, waardoor de vervuilingsdruk groter wordt…Verstedelijking (%) per regio Bevolking per leeftijdsgroep 80-99 60-79 40-59 20-39 0-19 1970 2010 2050 Afrika Azië 14% 10% 9% 14% 16% 19% 21% 23% 27% 30% 27% 26% 32% 32% 90 26% 89 55% 51% 51% 84 36% 35% 24% 82 80 74 75 1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050 73 71 70 Europa Latijns-Amerika 65 62 63 14% 9% 9% 18% 15% 20% 57 23% 25% 21% 29% 26% 27% 28% 24% 32% 28% 22% 25% 42 53% 40 34% 37% 21% 20% 23% 1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050 24 23 Noord-Amerika Oceanië 12% 15% 9% 13% 20% 21% 17% 23% 24% 28% 24% 25% 28% 27% 28% 27% 25% 26% Afrika Azië Europa Latijns- Noord- Oceanië 39% 42% 32% Amerika Amerika 27% 23% 26%Bron: United Nations World Populations Prospects 2009 1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 205019 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Macrotrends...en mogelijk tekorten aan water en belangrijke hulpbronnen ontstaanWateronttrekking in % van totaal beschikbaar Hulpbronnen (aantal jaar tot uitputting) Top 3 Marktaandeel1995 producenten van top 3 (%) Soda 180 CN, VS, IN Onbeduidend Aluminium 161 CN, RU, CA 55% Kolen 148 CN, VS, IN 69% Fosfaat 75 CN, VS, MA 75%2025 IJzererts 64 CN, AU, BR 50% *** Koper 44 CL, VS, PE 47% Antimonium 30 CN, BO, SA 95% Zilver 29 PE, MX, CN 44% Indium 13 CN, JP, KO 78% Meer dan 20% - 10% 40% 40% - 20% Minder dan 10% Zeldzame metalenBron: UNEP, VGG group, Deloitte-analyse20 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Het Europese bestand van grondstoffen en bedrijfsmiddelen moet wordenuitgebreid met nieuwe grondstoffen en Europa moet inspelen op de nieuwemogelijkheden op het gebied van innovatie Innovatie en kennis • Explosieve toename van • Nieuwe procestechnologieën • Explosieve toename van materialen en producten • Nieuwe moleculaire selectie materialen en producten • ... en modellering • Cradle to Cradle-ontwerpen • Procesintensificatie en • ... • productie met weinig bedrijfsmiddelen • ... Producten en Grondstoffen Bedrijfsmiddelen toepassingen • Uitbreiding van bedrijfsmiddelen • Verschuiving naar het oosten • Schaarste van hulpbronnen voor basischemicaliën in Azië • Groeiende en vergrijzende stimuleert nieuwe bevolking en het MO grondstoffen, zoals biomassa- • Toenemend bewustzijn van • Focus op klimaatverandering en afval duurzaamheid klimaatverandering en • ... • Verschuiving bedrijfsmiddelen duurzaamheid op basis van biomassa naar • Convergentie van eindmarkten herkomst van grondstoffen • ... • ... Macrotrends21 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • We will use the scenario planning in the next section to determine theimpact of the key uncertainties that have been identified Key Industry drivers High Decreasing GDP Shift EU export Global GDP growth Polarisation : Governance* Ageing Slow EU end Local for local Scarcity of Awareness population market growth bulk – global energy Talent Technological Environment. specialty shortage developments** change Population Water Possibility of shift Food Increasing scarcity scarcity2 Convergence new energy role of of end- sources Impact Global clusters Rare metals markets1 Land scarcity Regulation Education scarcity Consolidation Role of IP shift bulk chemicals EU in NW-EU CO2 Emis- population Continuing sion growth ageing first specialisation of NW-EU chem. Urbanisation Low Key uncertainties for scenarios Low Uncertainty High Driving Forces Key Uncertainties* Protectionist vs cooperative ** Effect of super moculair modelling, nano technology, synthetic biology, process intensification, increased computing power etc 1) Food, agro, nutrition, health etc 2) Scarcity is expected to drive up prices22 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn23 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Based on desk research, expert interviews and workshops 4 possibleindustry scenarios have been identified...Dutch Chemical Industry Scenarios Fragmented Future Scenarios • The world will fragment in order to ensure self • Scenarios are alternative future sufficiency environments in which todays decisions may be played out Green • Scenarios are not predictions Revolution but descriptions of different • High climate change futures specifically designed to and sustainability highlight the uncertainties awareness in society inherent in specific strategic Today Solar issues Revolution • Alternative scenarios provide a • Solar PV decreases way of focusing on the future energy prices without locking in on one forecast to the exclusion of Technological other possibilities Revolution • Rapid technological developments Time24 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • ...which differ around six dimensions Fragmented Green Technological Dimension Description Solar Revolution Future Revolution Revolution Growth development Low High and international Economy alignment of economic growth Decoupled Coupled Global Governance Global governance Protectionism coordination* and model and its regulation strength Loose Strict Energy and (international) commodity availability of energy Abundance Scarcity availability and feedstock Way in which climate Local Global Climate and and environmental environment issues are addressed Focused Broad Ethics, Social acceptance of No focus Focus culture and new technologies and sustainability sustainability (customer) focus on climate and Slow Fast behaviour environment change acceptance Acceptance Focused Diversified Science and The orientation and Technology speed of tech. dev. Slow Fast* Including free trade25 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • In summary, potentially there will be significant overlap in the keys tosuccess in the different scenariosDutch Chemical Industry Scenarios Directional Oil Bio Re-use Current 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050Scenario Fragmented Future Green revolution Solar revolution Technical revolutionDescription • The world will fragment in • High climate change and • Solar fuel decrease energy • Rapid technological order to ensure self sustainability awareness in prices developments sufficiency societyImpact on • Bio and re-use feedstock will • Societal pressure will force • Bio and re-use feedstock only • Technological possibilitiesfeedstock mix grow in order to become self the use of biomass and re- for new functionalities, drive use of biomass and re- sufficient use feedstock naphtha remains dominant use feedstockImpact on • Slow investments in current • Significant investments in • Slow investments in new • Significant investments inassets assets to support mixing in both current and new assets , assets for specialty both current and new assets bio and gas due societal pressure chemicals based on biomass due to technical and economic opportunitiesNW-EU • Current asset cluster will • Strongly developed biomass • Large global players will be • Further integration of thechemistry have to integrate biomass and recycled feedstock complemented by a set of value chain to include bio andindustry and waste and scale down based production smaller players focussing on recycled feedstock due to limited possibility to bio based and recycling incorporating new players export playersPotential key • Create strong investment • Logistics to support full • Operational excellence for • Create a strong investmentto success for climate for biomass and integration of the cluster to the NW-EU cluster as climate to support high speedNW-EU recycling include new feedstock and process cost-efficiency will of innovation and exploit the adapt to convergence of agri, become dominant convergence of agriculture, (bio)chemistry and health chemistry and health industry27 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Fragmented future – Scarcity of resources makes local for local marketsdominating in a fragmented world Description Impact on Dutch Chemical IndustryDescription • The world will fragment in order to secure local demands, Feedstock and Assets local for local markets arise to ensure self sufficiency • The fragmentation of the world will disturb the global commodity market, so alliances and trade agreementsEconomy • Historical below average growth rates; Europe is decoupled will be installed in order to secure access to feedstock from the global economy • Need of self sufficiency will push the use of biomass asGovernance • Self sufficiency leads to protectionism as dominant paradigm a feedstock especially the 2nd and 3rd generationand for developing regulation biomassregulations • The above can create conflicts between and within regions • Biomass chemical industry will growth relatively fast as will recycling to limit the dependency on import ofEnergy and • Local for local markets drive high energy and commodity feedstockCommodity prices on the distorted international market placeprices Industry StructureClimate and • Concerns for climate and pollution arise locally especially in • The global chemical industry will be affected by tradeenvironment wealthy regions with energy dependency barriers and nationalistic protectionism, forcing local for local productionEthics, • Local and regional debates about the availability of food andculture and energy are dominant, of course depending on local resource • Protection of new technologies and conservative(customer) availability investment climate could favour incumbents, howeverbehaviour being a global company looses significance • Social values strong local focus • Need to grow biomass production could lead toScience and • Technological developments are guarded and protected by decentralisation of assetsTechnology regions • Efficiency will dominate over innovation and • Local policies force technological developments into relevant sustainability, which enables the Netherlands to supply (local) solution areas the rest of Europe for traditional petro chemicals • New „sustainable‟ technologies will arise in energy and commodity dependent regions Products and Applications • The end market growth will be relatively slow in EU, trade barriers limit export position28 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Green Revolution – High social awareness will force very fast transitiontowards a sustainable world Description Impact on Dutch Chemical IndustryDescription • High awareness for climate change, sustainability and Feedstock and Assets energy efficiency dominates the future stimulated by • Traditional petro based feedstock will be complemented scientific evidence linking climate change to changes in and partly replaced with 2nd and 3rd generation rainfall, weather patterns, sea levels and new diseases biomass and strong focus on re-use / recyclingEconomy • Low to average growth rates • The availability of biomass will be the limiting factor • Traditional petro chemical industry will integrateGovernance • Increased compliance with regulations for sustainability, biomass into the current clusterand decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and safety • Additional focus on biomass can drive decentralisationregulations • Carbon credits and greenhouse gas emissions are installed and miniaturisation of (new supporting) assets, this will • Protectionism in trade increased to create global compliance be supported by the decentralised energy supplyEnergy and • Energy costs increase due to policies on carbon andCommodity greenhouse gas emissions which are priced in Industry Structureprices • Commodity prices increase due to protectionism • The consumer pressure for sustainability in combination with the integration with the agrofood and health sectorClimate and • Evidence force market to shift gears, awareness for climate will potentially introduce new players into sector (e.g.environment and environmental changes increase van Gansewinkel, Danisco) • This creates focus to reduce waste across other industries as • Further development of clusters and ecosystems to agriculture, animal production and manufacturing close energy and product loops in production systemsEthics, • Social values place greater emphasis on environmentalculture and sustainable products Products and Applications(customer) • Customer greatly value sustainable products, practices and • Cradle to cradle design will dominate new productbehaviour companies incorporating climate change considerations design and development potentially further integration of the global supply chainScience and • Demand for clean, energy-efficient and sustainable productsTechnology in response to the climate change requires investment in • Consumer values will allow premiums to be paid for basic and applied research products forcing a tipping point to scale up production • Technological innovation will focus on broad range of fields as the increase of crop yields are developed to minimise the conflict between food and feedstock and to scale up bio based29 chemistry (e.g. pyrolysis process) © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Solar Revolution – Solar fuel will break through on a large scale Description Impact on Dutch Chemical IndustryDescription • Solar fuel (or other energy solutions) will break through Feedstock and Assets on large scale decreasing the costs of electricity • Low electricity costs will push the break through of the electric vehicles limiting the demand of the transport andEconomy • Global economy will develop in a highly coupled way at above energy sector for oil growth rates through increased globalised demand due to lower transport costs • Oil and gas prices will decrease making petro chemistry attractive in comparison to bio basedGovernance • Free trade – as result of negotiated and agreed policies for chemistry this will limited the push for up scaling of bioand production, trade, H&S and environmental sustainability - is based assetsregulations stimulated by lower transport costs. • Additionally the petro chemistry in NW-EU will becomeEnergy and • Lower energy, commodity and feedstock prices as result of more cost competitive as feedstock price differences byCommodity the technical break-through region will decrease and process efficiency becomesprices leading (again) • Economies of scale and scope (products) will determineClimate and • Environmental concerns de-emphasize energy-efficiency and the competitiveness of the NW-EU petro-chemicalsenvironment will focus on mitigating effects of toxics allowed by decent plants. profits • Development of bio based chemicals will remainEthics, • Consumers keep focus on the effects of toxics on important to create new functionalities for new productculture and environment and debate on ethics of biotechnology, development(consumer) nanotechnology and genetically modified products isbehaviour negotiated due to increased demand for products Industry StructureScience and • Solar photovoltaics (or other energy solution) has increased • Given the staying power of the NW-EU petro chemicalTechnology its efficiency and realises low cost energy availability industry large global players will be complemented by a throughout the world, opening opportunities for high energy set of smaller players focussing on bio based and re-use use technologies / recycling • Strong GDP stimulates innovation of environmental sustainable products with focus on limiting the effects of toxics Products and Application • Strong GDP growth combined with a more globalised world • The cost competitive position of NW-EU will relief the will continuously strain the availability of talent in Europe pressure on the export position • Key transportation and automotive sectors will go30 through major transformation © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Technological Revolution – Rapid technological developments create anexplosion of new materials and supporting process technologies Description Impact on Dutch Chemical IndustryDescription • Rapid technological development dominates future Feedstock and Assets • The trend towards asset light production andEconomy • Global economy will develop in a coupled way at above miniaturisation of assets combined with new feedstock average growth rates with increased globalised demand possibilities could lead to asset decentralisation.Governance • Trade policies will move to free trade - health, safety and • Relative free global trade will lead to regionaland environmental regulation are negotiated and strict. specialisation for bulk chemical industry making the EUregulations • The above leads to predictable and long-term policy direction bulk chemical less prominent supported by the continued supporting technological innovation and investment (expected) reliance on import for naphtha based feedstock and biomassEnergy and • Economic and population growth strain supply and lead to • New asset in the Netherlands and Europe will beCommodity increased costs for fuel and traditional petrochemicals producing speciality chemicals based on biomass andprices • High food, commodity and energy prices recycled feedstockClimate and • Strong industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets • Artificial photosynthesis provides new (feedstock for)environment create concern for energy consumption, climate change and chemicals , decreasing oil and biomass dependency pollution Industry StructureEthics, • Consumers are relatively fast in adopting new products andculture and society looks for technological innovation to meet the need for • Technology enabled inclusion of different feedstock(consumer) clean products potentially allows new industry players to enterbehaviour • Ethical concerns for biotechnology, nanotechnology and GMP • Technology driven end market cluster will leverage are pushed to the background their knowledge and innovation capability globally to create an export positionScience and • Technologies as artificial photosynthesis can mitigate the CO2 • Traditional players and new-comers will co-existTechnology effect and produce hydrocarbons for chemicals • Rapid technological breakthroughs and innovation using new feedstock, new production methods and making new products Products and Application using: converged biosciences, materials sciences, self • New product explosion will continue to create higher assembly and nano technologies. added value products in combination with growing global • This is supported by a highly connected IP free world leading demand could lead to stable European export position to increasing speed of innovation • This export position is build on high added value markets as nutrition, health and personal care31 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn32 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Break-out objectives • Participants provide their view on the scenarios for the Dutch Chemical Industry and their impact • Participants share and discuss their view with others • Groups summarize views from everyone on the industry scenarios and their impact • Identify shared conclusions and on element that should be included in vision for the Dutch Chemical Industry33 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • To capture everybody’s thinking, we propose to have the following structurefor our discussionsBreak-out process Scenarios Discussion Topics Fragmented Future What will be the What determines the impact of the success under the scenarios on the different scenarios? North- Western European/NL Importance of Cluster Green Revolution chemical industry? Investment Climate Knowledge & Elements Innovation Environment, Health for the and Safety Industry Products & Vision Applications Regulation Electric Future Feedstock & Talent Assets Image Industry Infrastructure .... Technological Revolution • Write your main conclusions on flipcharts • Be prepared to give a ten minute summary to the plenary group34 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • We would like to start today’s discussion in three smaller groupsProposed composition of the break-out group Group 1 – 3.02 Group 2 – 3.13 Group 3 – 3.14• Fer Klinckhamers (Tronox • Hans Vreeswijk (Croda) • Don Huberts (Linde Gas) Pigments) • Joost Berting (Eastman) • Jaap Oldenziel (Air• Jan Smook (MSD) Liquide) • Marc van Doorn (OCI• Jos van Damme (Yara Agro) • Joke Driessen (Shell) Sluiskil) • Peter Bertens (Nefarma) • Mark Vester (Sabic)• Melt de Haas (ARKEMA) • Wim Pielage (Elementis • Theo Olijve• Rein Coster (VNCI) Specialties) (LyondellBasell)• Thomas Deman • Vincent Oomes (Deloitte) • Paul Evers (BASF) (ExxonMobil) • Willem Vaessen (Deloitte)• Peter Sanders (Deloitte)35 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn36 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn37 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Feedback and discussion• Discuss group outcomes ‒ 10 minutes presentation ‒ 20 minutes response and discussion• Synthesise findings ‒ Elements for the vision ‒ Conclusions38 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
  • Agenda 13:00 Introduction 13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project 13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today 14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry 14:30 Break-out discussions 15:30 Break 15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion 17:00 Adjourn39 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
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