• Save
Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast

on

  • 955 views

An insightful and candid economic analysis and forecast for the Tulare County economy, including state, national, and international drivers.

An insightful and candid economic analysis and forecast for the Tulare County economy, including state, national, and international drivers.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
955
Views on SlideShare
955
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast Presentation Transcript

    • Tulare County’s Economic Situation Bill WatkinsOctober 2011
    • www.clucerf.org
    • A little aboutCLU-CERF & MS Econwww.clucerf.org
    • Greg Mankiw“One thing we cannot do very well Is forecast the economy.”
    • Kierkegaard Sartre Existentialism and EconomicNietzsche Growth Camus www.clucerf.org
    • Bill Says: “Effective policy cannot be made without a clear understanding of the situation and the challenges that the situation imposes.” www.clucerf.org
    • Outline• Europe• Is the consumer ready?• How Are Our Indicators Doing?• United States• Why Real Estate Won‟t Recover Soon• California• Tulare County www.clucerf.org
    • Europe
    • Optimal Currency Zone • Inflation rates • Openness to trade • Diversification • Integrated financial sectors & policy • Mobile labor and capital www.clucerf.org
    • Fundamental Trilemma of International Finance 1. Make the country‟s economy open to international flows of capital 2. Use monetary policy as a tool to help stabilize the economy 3. Maintain stability in the currency exchange rate www.clucerf.org
    • Bill Says: “The Eurozone will come apart, and it will be ugly” www.clucerf.org
    • Is the consumer ready tobring us outwww.clucerf.org of recession?
    • Total Consumer Debt is Probably Too High United States Household Consumer Debt: Total Thousands of dollars per household25.020.015.010.0 5.0 0.0 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10
    • Mortgage Debt is Probably Too High United States Household Debt Share: Mortgages Percent of Current Income100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004Q1 2010Q1
    • We‟re Still Down Over 6 Million Jobs United States Non-Farm JobsMillions of Jobs Seasonally Adjusted Data140138136134132130128126124 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09May-10Oct-10Mar-11 www.clucerf.org
    • Rising Food Prices United States600 1800 1600500 1400400 1200 1000300 800200 600 400100 200 0 0 Jan-47 Jan-59 Jan-71 Jan-79 Jan-83 Jan-91 Jan-03 Jan-51 Jan-55 Jan-63 Jan-67 Jan-75 Jan-87 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-07 Jan-11 Real: Spot Market Foodstuffs Price Index Nominal: Spot Market Foodstuffs Price Index
    • Home Prices are Still Falling www.clucerf.org
    • Wealth is at 1998 Levels thousands $ per person United States250.0200.0150.0100.0 50.0 0.0 1945 1948 1957 1960 1963 1972 1975 1984 1987 1996 1999 1951 1954 1966 1969 1978 1981 1990 1993 2002 2005 2008 Net Household Sector Wealth per Capita Real (2010 $) www.clucerf.org
    • Structural unemployment,factor price equalization, and the consumer.
    • How are our indicators doing?www.clucerf.org
    • Bank Charge-offs Still Too High Billions of Dollars United States60.050.040.030.020.010.0 0.0 1984Q1 1986Q4 1989Q3 1992Q2 1995Q1 1997Q4 2000Q3 2003Q2 2006Q12008 Q4 U.S. Total Bank Charge-Offs
    • Home Ownership Still Too High United States Home Ownership Rate, NSA Percent of Households70.069.068.067.066.065.064.063.062.061.060.059.0 1965Q1 1971Q1 1977Q1 1983Q1 1989Q1 1995Q1 2001Q1 2007Q1
    • Capacity Utilization Still Too Low United States90858075706560 Jan-67 Jan-71 Jan-75 Jan-79 Jan-83 Jan-87 Jan-91 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11 Capacity Utilization: Total index, (% Capacity, SA)
    • Risk Premiums are Going Crazy Again Ted Spread normalized by 3 month Treasury1980Q1 1983Q4 1987Q3 1991Q2 1995Q1 1998Q4 2002Q3 2006Q2 2010Q1 Annual Yield as a percent of 3-mo. Treasury
    • United States
    • Jobs and Productivity Datawww.clucerf.org
    • Problems with the forecastwww.clucerf.org
    • United States Forecastwww.clucerf.org
    • Slow Economic Growth Real Gross Domestic Product 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 -0.7 -1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -8.92007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
    • Really Slow Job Growth Average Monthly Non-Farm Job Change 170 181 139 166 136 96 101 97 105 109 124 44 22 67 85 39 -2 -47 -46 -135 -199 -256 -311 -516 -643 -7812007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (thousands of jobs) www.clucerf.org
    • No Job Recovery Soon Non-Farm Jobs-SA140.0138.0136.0134.0132.0130.0128.0126.0124.0 2000Q1 2002Q2 2004Q3 2006Q4 2009Q1 2011Q2 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (millions of jobs) www.clucerf.org
    • Persistent High Unemployment Unemployment Rate - SA 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 6.9 6.0 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.72007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (Percent of labor force) www.clucerf.org
    • Uncomfortable Facts• Any unemployment decline will come from discouraged workers• The difference between zero and negative is really small www.clucerf.org
    • Risk to the National Forecast • Middle East • Euro Zone www.clucerf.org
    • What about the deficit? www.clucerf.org
    • Department Overlay as %GDP 2010 10.2 8.0 5.8 5.2 4.5Total Government Dept. of Defense Dept. of Health and Social Security Other spending Deficit Human Services Administration
    • Why isn’t small business participating in the recovery?www.clucerf.org
    • Small business and real estate
    • Banks, lending, and small business growth
    • How to Change the Forecastwww.clucerf.org
    • Milton Friedman“"The role of the economist in discussions ofpublic policy seems to me to be to prescribe what should be done in light of what can be done, politics aside, and not to predict what is „politically feasible and then to recommend it.".”
    • How to Change the Forecast • Immigration www.clucerf.org
    • Foreign Immigration 1.68 1.611.60 1.621.59 1.521.511.55 1.51 1.36 1.26 1.12 1.08 1.030.991.05 0.92 0.94 0.87 0.70 0.660.50 0.53 0.520.53 0.440.450.44 0.481982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (millions of persons)
    • How to Change the Forecast • Immigration • Taxes • Energy • Regulation www.clucerf.org
    • Why Real Estate Won’t Recover Soon
    • Could home prices fall 20 percent?www.clucerf.org
    • For residential, it’s allabout home ownershipwww.clucerf.org
    • Prerequisites for a Housing Recovery • Home Ownership • Foreclosures • Delinquencies www.clucerf.org
    • Housing’s recovery will not be even.
    • What aboutcommercial property?www.clucerf.org
    • For retail, it’s all about Amazon.comwww.clucerf.org
    • For office, it’s all about telecommuting.www.clucerf.org
    • For industrial, it’s all about 3D printing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZboxMsSz5Aw www.clucerf.org
    • California
    • Does California have a Problem? www.clucerf.org
    • Just the Facts• 12 percent• 8 of 58• 4 out of 6 www.clucerf.org
    • Just the Facts• 16.1 percent to 15.1 percent• from 15 to 26 percent in 2007• 34 percent and 80 percent• 150,000 and 50,000 www.clucerf.org
    • Other Signs of Decline • Beaches • Los Angeles water lines • Freeways • Electrical cutbacks • Water supply • Education www.clucerf.org
    • California Nonfarm Jobs as a11.6% share of United States11.4%11.2%11.0%10.8%10.6%10.4%10.2%10.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of U.S.)
    • Non-Farm Jobs 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.712.2 12.0 12.2 12.41992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (millions of persons)
    • California Forecastwww.clucerf.org
    • Bill Says: California is moving toward a future of contrasts: wealth, without economic growth;consumption, without investment; the wealthy and the poor living side by side, without a middle class; young adults and old people, without families and children. www.clucerf.org
    • Really Slow Economic Growth Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -1.5 -1.8 -4.1 -8.9 -9.72007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
    • Really Slow job Growth Non-Farm Jobs-SA 2.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -3.1 -6.1 -6.7 -7.4 -8.52007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
    • Really High Unemployment Unemployment Rate-SA 12.5 12.212.412.412.4 12.2 12.112.212.212.111.9 11.9 11.8 11.811.6 11.2 11.4 10.1 8.6 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.0 5.22007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of labor force) www.clucerf.org
    • Really Slow Retail Sales Growth Real Retail Sales Growth 9.8 6.8 7.6 4.4 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 -5.3 -9.0 -9.6 -10.6 -27.62007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
    • Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.www.clucerf.org
    • Tulare County
    • Unemployment is Rising? Tulare County: Unemployment Rate-SA20.018.016.014.012.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 CLU Center for Economic Research and Forecasting: percent of labor force California
    • 25.0% 50.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 0.0% 5.0% Tulare County Alpaugh CDP Cutler CDP Dinuba city Ducor CDP Earlimart CDP East Orosi CDP East Porterville CDP Exeter city Farmersville city Goshen CDP Ivanhoe CDP Lemon Cove CDP Lindsay city London CDP Orosi CDP August 2011 Pixley CDPwww.clucerf.org Poplar Cotton Cntr CDP Porterville city Richgrove CDP Springville CDP Strathmore CDP Terra Bella CDP Three Rivers CDP Tipton CDP Tulare County Unemployment Rates: Traver CDP Tulare city Visalia city Woodlake city Some Communities Have Amazing Unemployment Woodville CDP
    • Persistent Negative Domestic Migration Tulare County5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0-1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Net domestic Migration
    • Slow Domestic Migration Tulare County3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Net Foreign Immigration
    • Some Other Indicators of Economic Stress Teen Percent on Percent on Pregnancy Food Stamps School Meals 2011 1/11/2011 October 2010Tulare 72 % 22.7 % 77.62 %California 41 % 9.55 % 55.9 %United States 34 % 14.10 % www.clucerf.org
    • The job front has not been all bad.www.clucerf.org
    • Tulare County Total: All Industries Jobs165,000160,000155,000150,000145,000140,000135,000130,000125,000120,000
    • Tulare County - Total: All Industries: year-on year job growth6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0
    • Some sectors are growing.www.clucerf.org
    • Tulare County Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Jobs60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0
    • Tulare County Leisure and Hospitality Jobs9,6009,4009,2009,0008,8008,6008,4008,2008,000
    • Tulare County Manufacturing Non Durables Jobs9,0008,9008,8008,7008,6008,5008,4008,3008,2008,1008,000
    • Tulare County Wholesale Trade Jobs4,3004,2004,1004,0003,9003,8003,7003,6003,5003,400
    • Tulare County Educational and Health Services Jobs11,80011,60011,40011,20011,00010,80010,60010,40010,20010,000 9,800
    • Tulare County Financial Activities Jobs5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
    • Tulare County Transportation and Warehousing Jobs5,0004,8004,6004,4004,2004,0003,8003,600
    • Tulare County Personal, Repair, and Maintenance Services Jobs3,4003,3003,2003,1003,0002,9002,8002,7002,6002,500
    • Some sectors appear to have stopped declining.www.clucerf.org
    • Tulare County Real Estate Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200 0
    • Tulare County Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Jobs12,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
    • Tulare County Construction Jobs9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0
    • Tulare County Manufacturing Durables Jobs4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
    • Tulare County Retail Trade Jobs18,00016,00014,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
    • Tulare County Information Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200 0
    • Tulare County Finance & Insurance Jobs3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
    • Government is still declining.www.clucerf.org
    • Tulare County Government Jobs33,00032,00031,00030,00029,00028,00027,000
    • Tulare County‟s Situation • Absent change, economic prospects are grim. • No inertia will come from the outside. • The task is not impossible, but you have your work cut out for you. www.clucerf.org
    • The Myth of Sisyphuswww.clucerf.org
    • Thank you! Please visit our website for: Forecast data Op-eds Blogs Tweets Analysis RSS Feedswww.clucerf.org