Tulare County’s            Economic            Situation Bill WatkinsOctober 2011
www.clucerf.org
A little aboutCLU-CERF & MS Econwww.clucerf.org
Greg Mankiw“One thing we cannot do very well    Is forecast the economy.”
Kierkegaard                       Sartre       Existentialism and EconomicNietzsche         Growth          Camus         ...
Bill Says:    “Effective policy cannot be        made without a clear        understanding of the    situation and the cha...
Outline• Europe• Is the consumer ready?• How Are Our Indicators Doing?• United States• Why Real Estate Won‟t  Recover Soon...
Europe
Optimal Currency Zone • Inflation rates • Openness to trade • Diversification • Integrated financial sectors &   policy • ...
Fundamental Trilemma of  International Finance   1. Make the country‟s economy      open to international flows of      ca...
Bill Says:     “The Eurozone will come     apart, and it will be ugly”      www.clucerf.org
Is the consumer ready tobring us outwww.clucerf.org             of recession?
Total Consumer Debt is Probably Too High                             United States                   Household Consumer De...
Mortgage Debt is Probably Too High                      United States              Household Debt Share: Mortgages        ...
We‟re Still Down Over 6 Million Jobs                    United States Non-Farm JobsMillions of Jobs                       ...
Rising Food Prices                                                             United States600                           ...
Home Prices are Still Falling     www.clucerf.org
Wealth is at 1998 Levels   thousands $ per person                                United States250.0200.0150.0100.0 50.0  0...
Structural unemployment,factor price equalization,    and the consumer.
How are our                   indicators                     doing?www.clucerf.org
Bank Charge-offs Still Too High   Billions of Dollars         United States60.050.040.030.020.010.0 0.0   1984Q1 1986Q4 19...
Home Ownership Still Too High                              United States                       Home Ownership Rate, NSA   ...
Capacity Utilization Still Too Low                          United States90858075706560 Jan-67 Jan-71 Jan-75 Jan-79 Jan-83...
Risk Premiums are Going Crazy Again           Ted Spread normalized by 3                month Treasury1980Q1 1983Q4 1987Q3...
United States
Jobs and Productivity        Datawww.clucerf.org
Problems with the      forecastwww.clucerf.org
United States Forecastwww.clucerf.org
Slow Economic Growth                      Real Gross Domestic Product        3.6                                          ...
Really Slow Job Growth             Average Monthly Non-Farm Job Change  170                                               ...
No Job Recovery Soon                 Non-Farm Jobs-SA140.0138.0136.0134.0132.0130.0128.0126.0124.0   2000Q1   2002Q2   200...
Persistent High Unemployment                    Unemployment Rate - SA                                                    ...
Uncomfortable Facts• Any unemployment decline will  come from discouraged workers• The difference between zero and  negati...
Risk to the National Forecast     • Middle East     • Euro Zone         www.clucerf.org
What about the deficit? www.clucerf.org
Department Overlay as %GDP 2010      10.2                                                                                 ...
Why isn’t small                  business              participating in               the recovery?www.clucerf.org
Small business and real estate
Banks, lending, and small business             growth
How to Change the     Forecastwww.clucerf.org
Milton Friedman“"The role of the economist in discussions ofpublic policy seems to me to be to prescribe what should be do...
How to Change the Forecast    • Immigration        www.clucerf.org
Foreign Immigration                                                        1.68                                    1.611.6...
How to Change the Forecast    •   Immigration    •   Taxes    •   Energy    •   Regulation          www.clucerf.org
Why Real Estate Won’t Recover Soon
Could home prices fall     20 percent?www.clucerf.org
For residential, it’s allabout home ownershipwww.clucerf.org
Prerequisites for a Housing        Recovery    • Home Ownership    • Foreclosures    • Delinquencies        www.clucerf.org
Housing’s recovery will not be even.
What aboutcommercial property?www.clucerf.org
For retail, it’s all about        Amazon.comwww.clucerf.org
For office, it’s all about      telecommuting.www.clucerf.org
For industrial, it’s all about 3D           printing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZboxMsSz5Aw www.clucerf.org
California
Does California have a      Problem? www.clucerf.org
Just the Facts• 12 percent• 8 of 58• 4 out of 6    www.clucerf.org
Just the Facts•   16.1 percent to 15.1 percent•   from 15 to 26 percent in 2007•   34 percent and 80 percent•   150,000 an...
Other Signs of Decline •   Beaches •   Los Angeles water lines •   Freeways •   Electrical cutbacks •   Water supply •   E...
California Nonfarm Jobs as a11.6%               share of United States11.4%11.2%11.0%10.8%10.6%10.4%10.2%10.0%        1990...
Non-Farm Jobs                                                                          15.1 15.2 15.0                     ...
California Forecastwww.clucerf.org
Bill Says:  California is moving toward a    future of contrasts: wealth,     without economic growth;consumption, without...
Really Slow Economic Growth                     Real Gross Domestic Product                               Growth        3....
Really Slow job Growth                                             Non-Farm Jobs-SA                                       ...
Really High Unemployment                          Unemployment Rate-SA                                                    ...
Really Slow Retail Sales Growth                              Real Retail Sales Growth                                     ...
Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.www.clucerf.org
Tulare County
Unemployment is Rising?              Tulare County: Unemployment Rate-SA20.018.016.014.012.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0      ...
25.0%                                                      50.0%                                              10.0%       ...
Persistent Negative Domestic Migration                       Tulare County5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000    0-1,000-2,000-3,000...
Slow Domestic Migration                          Tulare County3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500   0        1991   1993   ...
Some Other Indicators of                      Economic Stress                      Teen         Percent on   Percent on   ...
The job front has not   been all bad.www.clucerf.org
Tulare County Total: All Industries Jobs165,000160,000155,000150,000145,000140,000135,000130,000125,000120,000
Tulare County - Total: All Industries: year-on                    year job growth6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0
Some sectors are growing.www.clucerf.org
Tulare County Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing                     and Hunting Jobs60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000    0
Tulare County Leisure and Hospitality Jobs9,6009,4009,2009,0008,8008,6008,4008,2008,000
Tulare County Manufacturing Non Durables                         Jobs9,0008,9008,8008,7008,6008,5008,4008,3008,2008,1008,000
Tulare County Wholesale Trade Jobs4,3004,2004,1004,0003,9003,8003,7003,6003,5003,400
Tulare County Educational and Health Services                             Jobs11,80011,60011,40011,20011,00010,80010,60010...
Tulare County Financial Activities Jobs5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500   0
Tulare County Transportation and                Warehousing Jobs5,0004,8004,6004,4004,2004,0003,8003,600
Tulare County Personal, Repair, and            Maintenance Services Jobs3,4003,3003,2003,1003,0002,9002,8002,7002,6002,500
Some sectors appear to have    stopped declining.www.clucerf.org
Tulare County Real Estate Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200   0
Tulare County Professional, Scientific, and                  Technical Services Jobs12,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000  ...
Tulare County Construction Jobs9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000   0
Tulare County Manufacturing Durables Jobs4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500   0
Tulare County Retail Trade Jobs18,00016,00014,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000    0
Tulare County Information Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200   0
Tulare County Finance & Insurance Jobs3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500   0
Government is still declining.www.clucerf.org
Tulare County Government Jobs33,00032,00031,00030,00029,00028,00027,000
Tulare County‟s Situation  • Absent change, economic    prospects are grim.  • No inertia will come from the    outside.  ...
The Myth of Sisyphuswww.clucerf.org
Thank you! Please visit our website for:  Forecast data  Op-eds  Blogs  Tweets  Analysis  RSS Feedswww.clucerf.org
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Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast

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An insightful and candid economic analysis and forecast for the Tulare County economy, including state, national, and international drivers.

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Transcript of "Tulare County 2011 Economic Forecast"

  1. 1. Tulare County’s Economic Situation Bill WatkinsOctober 2011
  2. 2. www.clucerf.org
  3. 3. A little aboutCLU-CERF & MS Econwww.clucerf.org
  4. 4. Greg Mankiw“One thing we cannot do very well Is forecast the economy.”
  5. 5. Kierkegaard Sartre Existentialism and EconomicNietzsche Growth Camus www.clucerf.org
  6. 6. Bill Says: “Effective policy cannot be made without a clear understanding of the situation and the challenges that the situation imposes.” www.clucerf.org
  7. 7. Outline• Europe• Is the consumer ready?• How Are Our Indicators Doing?• United States• Why Real Estate Won‟t Recover Soon• California• Tulare County www.clucerf.org
  8. 8. Europe
  9. 9. Optimal Currency Zone • Inflation rates • Openness to trade • Diversification • Integrated financial sectors & policy • Mobile labor and capital www.clucerf.org
  10. 10. Fundamental Trilemma of International Finance 1. Make the country‟s economy open to international flows of capital 2. Use monetary policy as a tool to help stabilize the economy 3. Maintain stability in the currency exchange rate www.clucerf.org
  11. 11. Bill Says: “The Eurozone will come apart, and it will be ugly” www.clucerf.org
  12. 12. Is the consumer ready tobring us outwww.clucerf.org of recession?
  13. 13. Total Consumer Debt is Probably Too High United States Household Consumer Debt: Total Thousands of dollars per household25.020.015.010.0 5.0 0.0 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10
  14. 14. Mortgage Debt is Probably Too High United States Household Debt Share: Mortgages Percent of Current Income100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004Q1 2010Q1
  15. 15. We‟re Still Down Over 6 Million Jobs United States Non-Farm JobsMillions of Jobs Seasonally Adjusted Data140138136134132130128126124 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09May-10Oct-10Mar-11 www.clucerf.org
  16. 16. Rising Food Prices United States600 1800 1600500 1400400 1200 1000300 800200 600 400100 200 0 0 Jan-47 Jan-59 Jan-71 Jan-79 Jan-83 Jan-91 Jan-03 Jan-51 Jan-55 Jan-63 Jan-67 Jan-75 Jan-87 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-07 Jan-11 Real: Spot Market Foodstuffs Price Index Nominal: Spot Market Foodstuffs Price Index
  17. 17. Home Prices are Still Falling www.clucerf.org
  18. 18. Wealth is at 1998 Levels thousands $ per person United States250.0200.0150.0100.0 50.0 0.0 1945 1948 1957 1960 1963 1972 1975 1984 1987 1996 1999 1951 1954 1966 1969 1978 1981 1990 1993 2002 2005 2008 Net Household Sector Wealth per Capita Real (2010 $) www.clucerf.org
  19. 19. Structural unemployment,factor price equalization, and the consumer.
  20. 20. How are our indicators doing?www.clucerf.org
  21. 21. Bank Charge-offs Still Too High Billions of Dollars United States60.050.040.030.020.010.0 0.0 1984Q1 1986Q4 1989Q3 1992Q2 1995Q1 1997Q4 2000Q3 2003Q2 2006Q12008 Q4 U.S. Total Bank Charge-Offs
  22. 22. Home Ownership Still Too High United States Home Ownership Rate, NSA Percent of Households70.069.068.067.066.065.064.063.062.061.060.059.0 1965Q1 1971Q1 1977Q1 1983Q1 1989Q1 1995Q1 2001Q1 2007Q1
  23. 23. Capacity Utilization Still Too Low United States90858075706560 Jan-67 Jan-71 Jan-75 Jan-79 Jan-83 Jan-87 Jan-91 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11 Capacity Utilization: Total index, (% Capacity, SA)
  24. 24. Risk Premiums are Going Crazy Again Ted Spread normalized by 3 month Treasury1980Q1 1983Q4 1987Q3 1991Q2 1995Q1 1998Q4 2002Q3 2006Q2 2010Q1 Annual Yield as a percent of 3-mo. Treasury
  25. 25. United States
  26. 26. Jobs and Productivity Datawww.clucerf.org
  27. 27. Problems with the forecastwww.clucerf.org
  28. 28. United States Forecastwww.clucerf.org
  29. 29. Slow Economic Growth Real Gross Domestic Product 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 -0.7 -1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -8.92007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
  30. 30. Really Slow Job Growth Average Monthly Non-Farm Job Change 170 181 139 166 136 96 101 97 105 109 124 44 22 67 85 39 -2 -47 -46 -135 -199 -256 -311 -516 -643 -7812007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (thousands of jobs) www.clucerf.org
  31. 31. No Job Recovery Soon Non-Farm Jobs-SA140.0138.0136.0134.0132.0130.0128.0126.0124.0 2000Q1 2002Q2 2004Q3 2006Q4 2009Q1 2011Q2 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (millions of jobs) www.clucerf.org
  32. 32. Persistent High Unemployment Unemployment Rate - SA 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 6.9 6.0 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.72007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (Percent of labor force) www.clucerf.org
  33. 33. Uncomfortable Facts• Any unemployment decline will come from discouraged workers• The difference between zero and negative is really small www.clucerf.org
  34. 34. Risk to the National Forecast • Middle East • Euro Zone www.clucerf.org
  35. 35. What about the deficit? www.clucerf.org
  36. 36. Department Overlay as %GDP 2010 10.2 8.0 5.8 5.2 4.5Total Government Dept. of Defense Dept. of Health and Social Security Other spending Deficit Human Services Administration
  37. 37. Why isn’t small business participating in the recovery?www.clucerf.org
  38. 38. Small business and real estate
  39. 39. Banks, lending, and small business growth
  40. 40. How to Change the Forecastwww.clucerf.org
  41. 41. Milton Friedman“"The role of the economist in discussions ofpublic policy seems to me to be to prescribe what should be done in light of what can be done, politics aside, and not to predict what is „politically feasible and then to recommend it.".”
  42. 42. How to Change the Forecast • Immigration www.clucerf.org
  43. 43. Foreign Immigration 1.68 1.611.60 1.621.59 1.521.511.55 1.51 1.36 1.26 1.12 1.08 1.030.991.05 0.92 0.94 0.87 0.70 0.660.50 0.53 0.520.53 0.440.450.44 0.481982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (millions of persons)
  44. 44. How to Change the Forecast • Immigration • Taxes • Energy • Regulation www.clucerf.org
  45. 45. Why Real Estate Won’t Recover Soon
  46. 46. Could home prices fall 20 percent?www.clucerf.org
  47. 47. For residential, it’s allabout home ownershipwww.clucerf.org
  48. 48. Prerequisites for a Housing Recovery • Home Ownership • Foreclosures • Delinquencies www.clucerf.org
  49. 49. Housing’s recovery will not be even.
  50. 50. What aboutcommercial property?www.clucerf.org
  51. 51. For retail, it’s all about Amazon.comwww.clucerf.org
  52. 52. For office, it’s all about telecommuting.www.clucerf.org
  53. 53. For industrial, it’s all about 3D printing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZboxMsSz5Aw www.clucerf.org
  54. 54. California
  55. 55. Does California have a Problem? www.clucerf.org
  56. 56. Just the Facts• 12 percent• 8 of 58• 4 out of 6 www.clucerf.org
  57. 57. Just the Facts• 16.1 percent to 15.1 percent• from 15 to 26 percent in 2007• 34 percent and 80 percent• 150,000 and 50,000 www.clucerf.org
  58. 58. Other Signs of Decline • Beaches • Los Angeles water lines • Freeways • Electrical cutbacks • Water supply • Education www.clucerf.org
  59. 59. California Nonfarm Jobs as a11.6% share of United States11.4%11.2%11.0%10.8%10.6%10.4%10.2%10.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of U.S.)
  60. 60. Non-Farm Jobs 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.712.2 12.0 12.2 12.41992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (millions of persons)
  61. 61. California Forecastwww.clucerf.org
  62. 62. Bill Says: California is moving toward a future of contrasts: wealth, without economic growth;consumption, without investment; the wealthy and the poor living side by side, without a middle class; young adults and old people, without families and children. www.clucerf.org
  63. 63. Really Slow Economic Growth Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -1.5 -1.8 -4.1 -8.9 -9.72007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
  64. 64. Really Slow job Growth Non-Farm Jobs-SA 2.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -3.1 -6.1 -6.7 -7.4 -8.52007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
  65. 65. Really High Unemployment Unemployment Rate-SA 12.5 12.212.412.412.4 12.2 12.112.212.212.111.9 11.9 11.8 11.811.6 11.2 11.4 10.1 8.6 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.0 5.22007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of labor force) www.clucerf.org
  66. 66. Really Slow Retail Sales Growth Real Retail Sales Growth 9.8 6.8 7.6 4.4 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 -5.3 -9.0 -9.6 -10.6 -27.62007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) www.clucerf.org
  67. 67. Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.www.clucerf.org
  68. 68. Tulare County
  69. 69. Unemployment is Rising? Tulare County: Unemployment Rate-SA20.018.016.014.012.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 CLU Center for Economic Research and Forecasting: percent of labor force California
  70. 70. 25.0% 50.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 0.0% 5.0% Tulare County Alpaugh CDP Cutler CDP Dinuba city Ducor CDP Earlimart CDP East Orosi CDP East Porterville CDP Exeter city Farmersville city Goshen CDP Ivanhoe CDP Lemon Cove CDP Lindsay city London CDP Orosi CDP August 2011 Pixley CDPwww.clucerf.org Poplar Cotton Cntr CDP Porterville city Richgrove CDP Springville CDP Strathmore CDP Terra Bella CDP Three Rivers CDP Tipton CDP Tulare County Unemployment Rates: Traver CDP Tulare city Visalia city Woodlake city Some Communities Have Amazing Unemployment Woodville CDP
  71. 71. Persistent Negative Domestic Migration Tulare County5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0-1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Net domestic Migration
  72. 72. Slow Domestic Migration Tulare County3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Net Foreign Immigration
  73. 73. Some Other Indicators of Economic Stress Teen Percent on Percent on Pregnancy Food Stamps School Meals 2011 1/11/2011 October 2010Tulare 72 % 22.7 % 77.62 %California 41 % 9.55 % 55.9 %United States 34 % 14.10 % www.clucerf.org
  74. 74. The job front has not been all bad.www.clucerf.org
  75. 75. Tulare County Total: All Industries Jobs165,000160,000155,000150,000145,000140,000135,000130,000125,000120,000
  76. 76. Tulare County - Total: All Industries: year-on year job growth6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0
  77. 77. Some sectors are growing.www.clucerf.org
  78. 78. Tulare County Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Jobs60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0
  79. 79. Tulare County Leisure and Hospitality Jobs9,6009,4009,2009,0008,8008,6008,4008,2008,000
  80. 80. Tulare County Manufacturing Non Durables Jobs9,0008,9008,8008,7008,6008,5008,4008,3008,2008,1008,000
  81. 81. Tulare County Wholesale Trade Jobs4,3004,2004,1004,0003,9003,8003,7003,6003,5003,400
  82. 82. Tulare County Educational and Health Services Jobs11,80011,60011,40011,20011,00010,80010,60010,40010,20010,000 9,800
  83. 83. Tulare County Financial Activities Jobs5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
  84. 84. Tulare County Transportation and Warehousing Jobs5,0004,8004,6004,4004,2004,0003,8003,600
  85. 85. Tulare County Personal, Repair, and Maintenance Services Jobs3,4003,3003,2003,1003,0002,9002,8002,7002,6002,500
  86. 86. Some sectors appear to have stopped declining.www.clucerf.org
  87. 87. Tulare County Real Estate Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200 0
  88. 88. Tulare County Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Jobs12,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
  89. 89. Tulare County Construction Jobs9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0
  90. 90. Tulare County Manufacturing Durables Jobs4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
  91. 91. Tulare County Retail Trade Jobs18,00016,00014,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
  92. 92. Tulare County Information Jobs1,6001,4001,2001,000 800 600 400 200 0
  93. 93. Tulare County Finance & Insurance Jobs3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
  94. 94. Government is still declining.www.clucerf.org
  95. 95. Tulare County Government Jobs33,00032,00031,00030,00029,00028,00027,000
  96. 96. Tulare County‟s Situation • Absent change, economic prospects are grim. • No inertia will come from the outside. • The task is not impossible, but you have your work cut out for you. www.clucerf.org
  97. 97. The Myth of Sisyphuswww.clucerf.org
  98. 98. Thank you! Please visit our website for: Forecast data Op-eds Blogs Tweets Analysis RSS Feedswww.clucerf.org

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