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Public Lecture PPT (4.11.2012)The fukushima shock and japan’s nuclear future
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Public Lecture PPT (4.11.2012)The fukushima shock and japan’s nuclear future

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The fukushima shock and japan’s nuclear future …

The fukushima shock and japan’s nuclear future
Speaker: Jacques Hymans

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. The Fukushima shock and Japan’s nuclear future Jacques E. C. HymansAssociate Professor of International Relations University of Southern California hymans@usc.edu
  • 2. March 11, 2011: Earthquaketsunaminuclear disasterhttp://leader-leader.com/blog/2011/12/02/what-happened-at-fukushima/
  • 3. Japanese nuclear policies at the time of the quake and one year later Policy area Policy as of March 11, 2011 Policy as of March 11, 2012 Nuclear exports Major multi-agency nuclear Unchanged export promotion effort Nuclear fuel cycle Rapid entry into service of Reprocessing policy (Rokkasho) Rokkasho (reprocessing) and unchanged; Monju (fast breeder Monju FY 2012 budget cut by reactor), domestic enrichment 25%; of uranium (also at Rokkasho) Enrichment restarted Mar. 9, 2012 Nuclear power Increase nuclear power from “Decrease” reliance on nuclear 30% to 50% of domestic power (unclear if “decrease” is electricity production by 2030 counted from 30% or 50%) Nuclear safety 30-year licenses for new 40-year licenses for new NPPs NPPs plus unlimited 10-year with one possible 20-year extensions; extension; No earthquake/tsunami Mandatory earthquake/tsunami emergency “stress tests”; emergency “stress tests”; METI and NSC responsible Ministry of Environment takes for nuclear safety regulation over nuclear safety regulation
  • 4. Japan’s nuclear policymaking arenaMajor veto players Minor veto players Other players Electrical utilities AEC IAEA METI Heavy manufacturers JAEA PM/Cabinet Prefectural governors MEXTPlus, since 3/11: Ministry NSC of Environment? Public/media/activists Universities USA
  • 5. 1st Affiliations of Advisory Committee MembersCategory METI ANRE AEC METI NISASubnational 0 2 (7%) 0gov’tsIndustry 4 (16%) 5 (18%) 0Finance 1 (4%) 2 (7%) 0Think tanks 6 (24%) 3 (11%) 1 (9%)Universities 9 (36%) 7 (25%) 10 (91%)Consumer NGOs 2 (8%) 1 (4%) 0Environment 3 (12%) 2 (7%) 0NGOsOther 0 5 AEC commissioners (18%)* 0 1 journalist (4%)Total members 25 28 11
  • 6. “Anti-nuclear” and “pro-nuclear” members of government advisory committeesGovernment Composition in Composition as Composition asagency 2005-2006 of 3/11/11 of 3/11/12AEC Anti: 1 (3%) Anti: 3 (12%) Anti: 4 (13%) Pro: 32 (97%) Pro: 23 (88%) Pro: 26 (87%)METI ANRE Anti: 0 (0%) n/a Anti: 8- 9 (32- 36%) Pro: 35 (100%) Pro: 16-17 (64- 68%)METI NISA n/a Anti: 0 (0%) Anti: 2 (18%) Pro: 29 (100%) Pro: 9 (82%)
  • 7. “Airtime” of anti-nuclear members on the AEC Policy Planning Council Pre-3/11 Post-3/11Anti-nuclear % of total 10.5 19.2airtimeAnti-nuclear % of council 15.3 32.1member airtime
  • 8. Three levels of nuclear policy• National policy: not very much change?• Corporate policy: more change?• Prefectural policy: most change?
  • 9. Corporate policy: Will METI run TEPCO? Wide range of potential policy implicationsEdano-TEPCO fight over voting rights:• 1/3 of voting shares: veto power over proposed board members• 1/2 of voting shares: select board members• 2/3 of voting shares: directly hire and fire management, set corporate strategy
  • 10. Prefectural policy: What is ‘local’? Potential geometrical expansion in veto playershttp://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ2011101314327
  • 11. Any questions? Any answers?

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