Public Lecture Slide Presentation (4.11.2013)

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Data-driven Perspectives on Community Recovery in Tohoku
- Daniel P. Aldrich, Ph.D., Professor, Purdue University, Political Science

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Public Lecture Slide Presentation (4.11.2013)

  1. 1. During Disaster,(Tsunami) Size andAge Matter, but SoDo NetworksDaniel P. AldrichPurdue University and Tokyo UniversityDaniel.aldrich@gmail.com and Twitter @DanielPAldrich
  2. 2. Overall Project FrameworkLevel of Analysis Cases Data Stress onInternational Japan, Haiti, India,ChinaRecent earthquakedisastersPolitical capacityand state-civilsociety relationsNational Aomori, Iwate,Miyagi,Fukushima, ChibaPrefecturaldamage, populationshift, businessconditionFinancial capacity,social capital,damageCity / village/ town 280 coastal villages Quant (200+variables withoutcome ofmortality andsurvival)Damage, socialcapital, politics,demographicsIndividual Survivors from sixTohoku villagesQualitative Narrative ofsurvival andrecovery
  3. 3. Theories of Mortality
  4. 4. VariableNumber ofObservations MeanStandardDeviation Min MaxDisaster characteristics          Tsunami height 283 4.08 9.15 0.00 55.60Demographic factors          Percentage of pop over 65 283 0.27 0.06 0.12 0.55Population density 283 680.00 1417.20 1.62 9530.00Social capital factors          Crime rate per capita 283 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03Blood donations per capita 283 6.97 11.16 0.04 123.50Recycling compliance rate 269 18.05 7.18 5.80 58.20Political factors          LDP party support in 2009 LH election283 0.29 0.45 0.00 1.00Voter turnout 277 70.69 5.86 60.00 91.00Merged locality 283 0.09 0.28 0.00 1.00Environmental factors          Sea wall height 212 1.33 3.20 0.00 15.50
  5. 5. Strong variation in mortality050100150Density0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1Proportion of population missing or deceased
  6. 6. Some correlation with wave heightHinoemataShowaKatsuraoNishimeyaShichikashukuMishimaSaiKaneyamaKazamauraKawauchiShingo FudaiKitashiobaraImabetsuYomogitaYugawaBandaiTanohataSamegawaYanaizuNodaYokohamaTadamiNakajimaOhira HironoFurudonoTakkoSumitaIitateTeneiOmaYamatsuriKozakiShimogoKunoheNishiwagaIzumizakiAsakawaHirataFutabaSotogahamaTamakawaHigashidoriKuzumakiMutsuzawaNishiaizuShikamaNarahaOnjukuShibayamaNagaraInakadateShinchiHiraizumiOtamaOsatoKyonanFujisawaChonanGokaFukauraHanawaKawasakiOnagawaKunimiKawachiKarumaiRokunoheOtaki IwaizumiOwaniRokkashoOnoSannoheAjigasawaOkumaMurata IchinomiyaShirakoHiranaiNakadomariKagamiishiKoriZaoIchinoheTsurutaNoheji HashikamiChoseiIwate shiTanaguraMatsushimaTonoshoItayanagiOtsuchiMarumoriKawamataInawashiroTomiokaTakoFujisakiKanegasakiYamamotoShichinoheMihoAizubangeMinamisanrikuToneWakuyaIshikawaMinamiaizu HironoKujukuriShizukuishiMiharu OaraiYabukiYamadaGonoheTohokuNishigoNanbuDaigoShichigahamaKatsuuraNamieShisuiShirosatoSakaeAizumisatoYachiyoRikuzentakataOgawara OiraseYokoshibahikariTaiwaMisatoKamiSakaiYahabaHachimantaiTonoNinoheItako TakahagiKakudaMotomiyaShiwaHirakawa RifuIbarakiWatariKamogawaKuroishi KujiTsugaruShiroishi TokaiNamegataSomaShibataKamaishiSosaTamuraOfunatoIsumi MisawaMinamibosoHigashimatsushimaKasumigauraIwanumaTsukubamiraiShimotsumaHitachiomiyaSakuragawaInashiki KitaibarakiTomiyaAmiFuttsuTateyamaOamishirasatoHokotaTomisatoOmitamaKitakataYukiTakizawaNaka SanmuBandoHitachiotaShiogamaGoshogawaraMiyakoNihonmatsuShiroiSodegauraMutsuToganeMoriyaTagajoShirakawaJosoDate KashimaTowada AsahiChoshiMinamisomaNatoriYachimataKesennumaKuriharaSukagawaKasamaIshiokaRyugasakiUshikuKatoriTomeYotsukaidoInzaiKimitsuMobaraKitakami KamisuHanamakiKamagayaChikuseiTorideIchinosekiMidoriOshuAizuwakamatsuNaritaKisarazu WakabayashiAbikoOsakiKogaTsuchiuraMihamaWakabaNoda HitachinakaInageIshinomakiNagareyamaNarashinoUrayasuSakuraHanamigawaHirosakiYachiyo MiyaginoHitachiChuoIzumiTsukubaTaihaku HachinoheMitoIchiharaAobaFukushima shiMoriokaAomori shiKoriyama IwakiKashiwaIchikawaMatsudoFunabashi Chiba shiSendai Ibaraki0.02.04.06.08.1PercentageMissing/Dead0 20 40 60Maximum tsunami height
  7. 7. Predicted mortality ceteris paribus0.01.02.03.04Mortality0 10 20 30 40 50Tsunami Height
  8. 8. Age matters-.01-.0050.005.01.015Mortality0 20 40 60Proportion of Population 65 and over
  9. 9. Proxy for social capital matters-.0020.002.004.006Mortality0 5 10 15Pre-Tsunami Proportional Crime Rate
  10. 10. Why might social capital matter?
  11. 11. ConclusionsStandard theories on mortality supported(weight height, age)No evidence that political factors played aroleSocial networks evidently important forsurvivalLook next to combine qualitative andquantitative data to fill in gaps

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