• Save
Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?)
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?)

on

  • 530 views

Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability? ...

Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?
Swept into the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party as a second place finisher and elected prime minister in a constitutionally suspect election where millions of voters abstained in disgust, Abe Shinzo starts his second term on what would seem unstable and unforgiving terms. With a risk-taking economic growth plan and a social agenda out of step with the values of many Japanese, Abe is throwing away the rule book on the role a highly indebted government can play in leading an aging and cautious population.

Despite the adverse circumstances, Abe Shinzo seems to be doing well in his early weeks in office, with high poll ratings and significant support from the political, business and media establishments. He looks on course to lead his party to victory in the summer House of Councillors election and break the cycle of an annual rotation of prime ministers.

How stable is the Abe administration and program? What are the issues that can derail its progression? What changes should we expect after the House of Councillors election?

Statistics

Views

Total Views
530
Views on SlideShare
530
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?) Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?) Presentation Transcript

  • Outlook for the Abe Cabinetand the 2013 House of Councillors Election Michael Cucek Research Associate, MIT Center for International Studies shisakublog@gmail.com
  • Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
  • USD in Yen
  • New Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko Nominated 28 February 2013
  • Supplementary Budget Vote Passes on 26 February 2013Voting in favor Voting againstLDP DPJ *New Komeito Your PartyJapan Restoration Party SocialistsPeople’s New Party Life *DJP defector (1)Midori no Kaze (4) AbstainingIndependents (3) DPJ defector (1) Life (1)
  • Cutting A Deal 1 Hamada Kazuo Noda TakeshiResigned from PNP Resigned from PNP 27 February 2013 27 February 2013
  • Cutting A Deal 2 Tanioka Kuniko Midori no Kaze
  • Popularity of Cabinets - Comparative Source: Sankei Shimbun
  • Which party will you vote for in the House of Councillors Proportional Vote? LDP 43.3 JRA/JRP 13.0 DPJ 7.6 New Komeito 3.5 Your Party 5.2 JCP 2.6 SDP 0.9 Life 0.5 New Renaissance 0.4 Midori no kaze 0.1 Other parties 7.2 Don’t know 15.7 Source: Sankei Shimbun
  • House of Councillors Election Outlook House of Councillors caucuses as of 28 February 2013Party Proportional District Total in Play TotalDPJ 15 30 45 87*LDP 13 22 35 83New Komeito 7 3 10 19Your Party 0 2 2 10Life 3 3 6 8Communist 3 0 3 6SDP 2 0 2 4JRA/JRP 1 1 2 3PNP** 1 0 1 2Renaissance 1 1 0 2Independents 1 3 4 5 Source: House of Councillors
  • What Could Go Wrong ?
  • What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment
  • Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
  • Nikkei 225 – Five Year
  • Tokyo Mothers
  • What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals
  • What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident
  • What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident• Internal dissension
  • What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident• Internal dissension• Policy overreach
  • What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ
  • What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP
  • Results of Proportional Vote - 16 December 2012 LDP 16,624,457 JRA/JRP 12,262,228 DPJ 9,628,653 New Komeito 7,116,474 Your Party 5,245,586 JCP 3,689,159 Tomorrow 3,423,915 SDP 1,420,790 Nippon Daichi 346,848 New Renaissance 134,718 PNP 70,847 Source: Tokyo Shimbun
  • What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP• Proper policy mix
  • What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP• Proper policy mix• The Third Way