Outlook for the Abe Cabinetand the 2013 House of Councillors Election                                                  Mic...
Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
USD in Yen
New Bank of Japan Governor       Kuroda Haruhiko  Nominated 28 February 2013
Supplementary Budget Vote Passes on 26 February 2013Voting in favor                  Voting againstLDP                    ...
Cutting A Deal 1  Hamada Kazuo                            Noda TakeshiResigned from PNP                      Resigned from...
Cutting A Deal 2 Tanioka Kuniko Midori no Kaze
Popularity of Cabinets - Comparative         Source: Sankei Shimbun
Which party will you vote for in the House of Councillors                   Proportional Vote?              LDP           ...
House of Councillors Election Outlook             House of Councillors caucuses as of 28 February 2013Party              P...
What Could Go Wrong ?
What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment
Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
Nikkei 225 – Five Year
Tokyo Mothers
What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals
What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident
What Could Go Wrong ?•   Reversal of Market Sentiment•   Scandals•   International incident•   Internal dissension
What Could Go Wrong ?•   Reversal of Market Sentiment•   Scandals•   International incident•   Internal dissension•   Poli...
What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ
What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP
Results of Proportional Vote - 16 December 2012     LDP                   16,624,457     JRA/JRP               12,262,228 ...
What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP• Proper policy mix
What is likely to go right?•   Moribund DPJ•   A by-passed JRA/JRP•   Proper policy mix•   The Third Way
終
Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?)
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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?)

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Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?
Swept into the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party as a second place finisher and elected prime minister in a constitutionally suspect election where millions of voters abstained in disgust, Abe Shinzo starts his second term on what would seem unstable and unforgiving terms. With a risk-taking economic growth plan and a social agenda out of step with the values of many Japanese, Abe is throwing away the rule book on the role a highly indebted government can play in leading an aging and cautious population.

Despite the adverse circumstances, Abe Shinzo seems to be doing well in his early weeks in office, with high poll ratings and significant support from the political, business and media establishments. He looks on course to lead his party to victory in the summer House of Councillors election and break the cycle of an annual rotation of prime ministers.

How stable is the Abe administration and program? What are the issues that can derail its progression? What changes should we expect after the House of Councillors election?

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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (2.28.2013 Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability?)

  1. 1. Outlook for the Abe Cabinetand the 2013 House of Councillors Election Michael Cucek Research Associate, MIT Center for International Studies shisakublog@gmail.com
  2. 2. Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
  3. 3. USD in Yen
  4. 4. New Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko Nominated 28 February 2013
  5. 5. Supplementary Budget Vote Passes on 26 February 2013Voting in favor Voting againstLDP DPJ *New Komeito Your PartyJapan Restoration Party SocialistsPeople’s New Party Life *DJP defector (1)Midori no Kaze (4) AbstainingIndependents (3) DPJ defector (1) Life (1)
  6. 6. Cutting A Deal 1 Hamada Kazuo Noda TakeshiResigned from PNP Resigned from PNP 27 February 2013 27 February 2013
  7. 7. Cutting A Deal 2 Tanioka Kuniko Midori no Kaze
  8. 8. Popularity of Cabinets - Comparative Source: Sankei Shimbun
  9. 9. Which party will you vote for in the House of Councillors Proportional Vote? LDP 43.3 JRA/JRP 13.0 DPJ 7.6 New Komeito 3.5 Your Party 5.2 JCP 2.6 SDP 0.9 Life 0.5 New Renaissance 0.4 Midori no kaze 0.1 Other parties 7.2 Don’t know 15.7 Source: Sankei Shimbun
  10. 10. House of Councillors Election Outlook House of Councillors caucuses as of 28 February 2013Party Proportional District Total in Play TotalDPJ 15 30 45 87*LDP 13 22 35 83New Komeito 7 3 10 19Your Party 0 2 2 10Life 3 3 6 8Communist 3 0 3 6SDP 2 0 2 4JRA/JRP 1 1 2 3PNP** 1 0 1 2Renaissance 1 1 0 2Independents 1 3 4 5 Source: House of Councillors
  11. 11. What Could Go Wrong ?
  12. 12. What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment
  13. 13. Nikkei 225 – 6 Months
  14. 14. Nikkei 225 – Five Year
  15. 15. Tokyo Mothers
  16. 16. What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals
  17. 17. What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident
  18. 18. What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident• Internal dissension
  19. 19. What Could Go Wrong ?• Reversal of Market Sentiment• Scandals• International incident• Internal dissension• Policy overreach
  20. 20. What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ
  21. 21. What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP
  22. 22. Results of Proportional Vote - 16 December 2012 LDP 16,624,457 JRA/JRP 12,262,228 DPJ 9,628,653 New Komeito 7,116,474 Your Party 5,245,586 JCP 3,689,159 Tomorrow 3,423,915 SDP 1,420,790 Nippon Daichi 346,848 New Renaissance 134,718 PNP 70,847 Source: Tokyo Shimbun
  23. 23. What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP• Proper policy mix
  24. 24. What is likely to go right?• Moribund DPJ• A by-passed JRA/JRP• Proper policy mix• The Third Way
  25. 25.

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