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PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia?
 

PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia?

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  • http://www.zoenature.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/hannibal-elephants.jpg Accessed 11 November 2011
  • http://www.fprado.com/armorsite/Abrams_Pics/M1A1-Firing-svg-01.jpg Accessed 11 November 2011
  • http://worldmeets.us/images/chinese.korean.war_poster.jpg 13 Nov 2011
  • http://us.cdn3.123rf.com/168nwm/tilo/tilo0902/tilo090200006/4255577-vector-illustration-of-explosive-bomb-with-burning-fuse.jpg Accessed 13 Nov 2011 http://210engagewithasia.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/map-china.gif 13 Nov 2011
  • http://www.3quarksdaily.com/.a/6a00d8341c562c53ef014e605d7d3c970c-800wi 13 Nov 2011
  • Carl von Clausewitz, On War.

PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia? PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia? Presentation Transcript

  • War in Asia? Tokyo, 14 November 2011 Temple University, Japan Campus Robert Dujarric Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies Temple University, Japan Campus, Tokyo [email_address] www.tuj.ac.jp/ic as
  • Sad truth: War – always in fashion Yesterday
  • Today
  • Defining “War in Asia”
    • Point of origin: East Asia.
    • Type: Major conflagration.
    • Core conflict: China vs. USA/Japan.
    • Other participants: Unlimited.
    • Geographical limit: none.
    • Theaters: Land, Air, Sea, Space, Cyber-space.
    • Time frame: Unknown.
    • Fatalities: Unknown.
    • Outcome: Unknown.
  • Could it be a “major war?”
    • Is China a peer competitor to the US/Japan?
      • Clearly not.
      • Military potential untested and unclear.
      • Could be a “paper tiger” but far from sure.
      • Possibility of a “major war” not insignificant.
  • Key questions to answer
    • Is such a war possible? Arguments against.
      • Economic interdependence makes war impossible
        • Human nature is violent. “Make money not war” like “make love not war” is not universally accepted.
        • Historical evidence disproves hypothesis.
        • Theoretical underpinnings defective.
      • Nuclear deterrence precludes a Sino-US war.
        • Empirical data set too small and ambiguous.
        • Theory interesting but not convincing.
        • Non-nuclear Cold War not preordained.
  • Who wants war? No one but…
    • US goal: incorporate China into (US) global system.
    • Not consistent with Chinese objectives.
    • US (and Japan) won’t accept radical systemic change.
    • Ideological confrontation.
  • Possible fuses
    • International ones:
      • Taiwan
      • South China Sea
      • India
      • US (maritime issues)
      • Pakistan/Afg./Central Asia
      • Japan
      • Russia
  • Possible fuses (2)
    • Domestic (in China and other countries):
      • Nationalism used for domestic political gain.
      • Domestic instability/weakness.
      • Separatism.
  • Additional risk factors
    • Who’s in charge in China?
    • Miscalculation.
    • Cumulative effect of multiple crises.
    • Perception US weakness.
  • Reflections – from Clausewitz
    • No one in his senses ought to start a war without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve and how he indents to conduct it.
    • War is now untrammeled by any conventional restraints and has broken lose in all its elemental fury.
    • No other human activity is so continuously or universally bound up with chance.
  • Thank you
    • Feel free to contact me:
    • Robert Dujarric
    • Temple University, Japan Campus
    • [email_address]
    • www.tuj.ac.jp/icas
    • Tel: (03) 5441-9800