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War in Asia? Tokyo, 14 November 2011 Temple University, Japan Campus Robert Dujarric Director, Institute of Contemporary A...
Sad truth: War – always in fashion Yesterday
Today
Defining “War in Asia” <ul><li>Point of origin:  East Asia. </li></ul><ul><li>Type:  Major conflagration. </li></ul><ul><l...
Could it be a “major war?” <ul><li>Is China a peer competitor to the US/Japan? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clearly not. </li></u...
Key questions to answer <ul><li>Is such a war possible?  Arguments against. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic interdependence...
Who wants war?  No one but… <ul><li>US goal: incorporate China into (US) global system. </li></ul><ul><li>Not consistent w...
Possible fuses <ul><li>International ones: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Taiwan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>South China Sea </li></...
Possible fuses (2) <ul><li>Domestic (in China and other countries): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nationalism used for domestic po...
Additional risk factors <ul><li>Who’s in charge in China? </li></ul><ul><li>Miscalculation. </li></ul><ul><li>Cumulative e...
Reflections – from Clausewitz <ul><li>No one in his senses ought to start a war without first being clear in his mind what...
Thank you <ul><li>Feel free to contact me: </li></ul><ul><li>Robert Dujarric </li></ul><ul><li>Temple University, Japan Ca...
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PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia?

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  • http://www.zoenature.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/hannibal-elephants.jpg Accessed 11 November 2011
  • http://www.fprado.com/armorsite/Abrams_Pics/M1A1-Firing-svg-01.jpg Accessed 11 November 2011
  • http://worldmeets.us/images/chinese.korean.war_poster.jpg 13 Nov 2011
  • http://us.cdn3.123rf.com/168nwm/tilo/tilo0902/tilo090200006/4255577-vector-illustration-of-explosive-bomb-with-burning-fuse.jpg Accessed 13 Nov 2011 http://210engagewithasia.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/map-china.gif 13 Nov 2011
  • http://www.3quarksdaily.com/.a/6a00d8341c562c53ef014e605d7d3c970c-800wi 13 Nov 2011
  • Carl von Clausewitz, On War.
  • Transcript of "PPT 11/14/2011_Is war possible in East Asia?"

    1. 1. War in Asia? Tokyo, 14 November 2011 Temple University, Japan Campus Robert Dujarric Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies Temple University, Japan Campus, Tokyo [email_address] www.tuj.ac.jp/ic as
    2. 2. Sad truth: War – always in fashion Yesterday
    3. 3. Today
    4. 4. Defining “War in Asia” <ul><li>Point of origin: East Asia. </li></ul><ul><li>Type: Major conflagration. </li></ul><ul><li>Core conflict: China vs. USA/Japan. </li></ul><ul><li>Other participants: Unlimited. </li></ul><ul><li>Geographical limit: none. </li></ul><ul><li>Theaters: Land, Air, Sea, Space, Cyber-space. </li></ul><ul><li>Time frame: Unknown. </li></ul><ul><li>Fatalities: Unknown. </li></ul><ul><li>Outcome: Unknown. </li></ul>
    5. 5. Could it be a “major war?” <ul><li>Is China a peer competitor to the US/Japan? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clearly not. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military potential untested and unclear. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Could be a “paper tiger” but far from sure. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possibility of a “major war” not insignificant. </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Key questions to answer <ul><li>Is such a war possible? Arguments against. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic interdependence makes war impossible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Human nature is violent. “Make money not war” like “make love not war” is not universally accepted. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Historical evidence disproves hypothesis. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Theoretical underpinnings defective. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear deterrence precludes a Sino-US war. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Empirical data set too small and ambiguous. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Theory interesting but not convincing. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Non-nuclear Cold War not preordained. </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Who wants war? No one but… <ul><li>US goal: incorporate China into (US) global system. </li></ul><ul><li>Not consistent with Chinese objectives. </li></ul><ul><li>US (and Japan) won’t accept radical systemic change. </li></ul><ul><li>Ideological confrontation. </li></ul>
    8. 8. Possible fuses <ul><li>International ones: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Taiwan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>South China Sea </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US (maritime issues) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan/Afg./Central Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Possible fuses (2) <ul><li>Domestic (in China and other countries): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nationalism used for domestic political gain. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic instability/weakness. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Separatism. </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Additional risk factors <ul><li>Who’s in charge in China? </li></ul><ul><li>Miscalculation. </li></ul><ul><li>Cumulative effect of multiple crises. </li></ul><ul><li>Perception US weakness. </li></ul>
    11. 11. Reflections – from Clausewitz <ul><li>No one in his senses ought to start a war without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve and how he indents to conduct it. </li></ul><ul><li>War is now untrammeled by any conventional restraints and has broken lose in all its elemental fury. </li></ul><ul><li>No other human activity is so continuously or universally bound up with chance. </li></ul>
    12. 12. Thank you <ul><li>Feel free to contact me: </li></ul><ul><li>Robert Dujarric </li></ul><ul><li>Temple University, Japan Campus </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.tuj.ac.jp/icas </li></ul><ul><li>Tel: (03) 5441-9800 </li></ul>
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