Big Data & Elections

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This presentation explores big data and its growing importance in winning and predicting future elections. In addition to this, controversies surrounding the intense use and analysis of personal data and the transition from viewing voting blocks as groups made of of individuals to individuals who are, by default, part of a group.

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  • http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-elections-2012-results-map#zoomed-picture
  • Image from: http://www.fortbendcounty.com/cities “Fort Bend Cities”Population Growth inFrey, H. W. (2012). Metro America since 1980: Putting the Volatile 2000s in Perspective. Brookings Institute. Retrieved from: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/20%20population%20frey/0320_population_frey.pdf
  • Census Viewer. Population of Fort Bend County, Texas:
Census 2010 and 2000 Interactive Map, Demographics, Statistics, Graphs, Quick Facts Retrieved from: http://censusviewer.com/county/TX/Fort%20BendUnited States Census Bureau. (June 27, 2013). State & County QuickFacts. Retrieved from: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48/48201.htmlUnited States Census Bureau. (June 27, 2013). State & County QuickFacts. Retrieved from: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48/48157.html
  • King, Bill. (March 9, 2013). Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/default/article/Decline-in-voter-turnout-may-be-handicap-to-Hall-4342798.php
  • Image from: http://www.bilerico.com/2010/01/political-hurdle-health-care-reform1.jpg
  • Dannenbaum, K. (August 8, 2012). What Does Big Data Mean for This Election?.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keya-dannenbaum/post_2941_b_1263802.html
  • Arthur, L. “What Is Big Data”. (August 15, 2013). Retrieved from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/lisaarthur/2013/08/15/what-is-big-data/
  • Szkolar, D. (January 24, 2013). Data Mining in Obama’s 2012 Victory. Syracuse University. Retrieved from: http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/
  • Issenberg, S. (December 19, 2012). “How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters.” Retrieved from: http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/
  • Netapp. (June 7, 2013). “Big data and the Election?”. Retrieved from:https://communities.netapp.com/servlet/JiveServlet/download/38-39229/big-data-election-netapp%20copy.pdf
  • Marlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=205925658858
  • Leah, C. Scott, K., Purcell, K. et al Smith, A. (2010). Assessing the Cell Phone Challenge. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from: http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/05/20/assessing-the-cell-phone-challenge/
  • Decline at the local level and in contrast that on an innovative style of voting measures through the Big data, through the Obama Campaign and dramatic increase in Black Population dilution
  • Big Data & Elections

    1. 1. Big Data Transforming Elections in the United States By: Dr. Michael O. Adams & Subria Lapps
    2. 2. Radio, Newspapers, and Television as a thing of the past… CHANGES IN TRADITIONAL MEDIA
    3. 3. Traditional Media Outlets • • • • African-American Radio African-American Newspapers Direct Mail Television Ads
    4. 4. DIRECT VOTER CONTACT • • • • Preachers Judges Neighborhood Civic Organizations Social Clubs
    5. 5. New Media • Social Networks (Twitter, Facebook, Google Circle, LinkedIn) • Data Sharing (Photo, Video, etc…) • Wikis • Blogs • Podcasts
    6. 6. What are African-American Candidates Up Against in Houston DEMOGRAPHICS & THE URBAN EXODUS
    7. 7. CITY OF HOUSTON BLACK EXODUS TO • Counties bordering SUBURBIA major urban centers experienced extreme growth from 2005 to 2006 & from 20092010 during the housing crisis this growth was cut in half • Cities and densely populated suburbs grew significantly during the late 2000s • Missouri City • Pearland • Sugarland
    8. 8. Population Harris County & Fort Bend County Population Growth 2000-2010 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Harris County 2000 2010 Fort Bend County 3,400,578 4,092,459 354,452 585,375 Source: U.S Census Quick Facts
    9. 9. Population Change Harris County Population Change 2000-2010 Harris County Fort Bend County Population (%) Change 2000-2010 Fort Bend County 42 79 24 47 Black White 86 4 White Hispanic Black Hispanic Source: Census Viewer
    10. 10. HOUSTON MAYORAL ELECTIONS • Mayor Lee Brown (Houston’s 1st AfricanAmerican Mayor was elected in 1997, 1999 and in 2001 • 2001 was the last election before AfricanAmerican voter participation in Houston elections witnessed a consistent decline • Elections w/ Black Candidates 2003 Bill White (v. Sylvester Turner) and 2009 Annise Parker (v. Gene Locke)
    11. 11. What is Happening? • The turnout model has changed and the old outlets and institutions have weakened
    12. 12. Social Media Engagement and Tracking as a Strategic Core WHERE DOES BIG DATA COME IN?
    13. 13. BIG DATA • Alistair Croll of O’Reilly Radar: – "After Eisenhower, you couldn't win an election without radio. After JFK, you couldn't win an election without television. After Obama, you couldn't win an election without social networking. I predict that in 2012, you won't be able to win an election without big data."
    14. 14. BIG DATA…WHAT IS IT? Large data sets that include but not limited to: • Consumer history • Financial history • Call centers • Point-of-sale • Social networks • Web Traffic/Patterns
    15. 15. DATA MINING IN ELECTIONS • Specific algorithms are designed to analyze collected data on voters to predict – election outcomes – advertising tactics to promote voter support and participation (online, door-to-door, phone, mail) • Looking at voters as distinct individuals and by default as part of a larger group • PERSONALIZED PROFILES=PERSONALIZED MESSAGES • TAKING RAW DATA AND MAKING IT MAKE SENSE
    16. 16. 2012 Elections, President Obama & Big Data • Targeted Messaging (online/text) • Volunteer App • Combining Traditional Phone Interviews w/ New Data Forms to develop algorithms
    17. 17. WHAT MATTERS MOST… Social Media has the power to propel any issue into the spotlight… Source: Netapp “Big data and the Election?”
    18. 18. AFRICAN AMERICANS & SOCIAL MEDIA • African Americans use twitter more than any other demographic group Source: FacMarlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=20592565885 8
    19. 19. RUNNING A DATA DRIVEN CAMPAIGN • Linking everything and mind the data • In the past, they needed cellphone and email addresses. – NOW they have de-emphasized the traditional poll and realized the increased mobility of younger tech savvy generations • T/V ads are broad and most of the population does not want commercials – Hard telephone lines are basically dead – People under the age of 35 do not have hard lines...
    20. 20. CHALLENGES 1. African-American churches/ civic organizations are loosing and will eventually loose their base as communities build stronger ties in newly migrated suburbs 2. African-American candidates are disconnected from the diversity that exists across younger Black voters, first time voters, and undecided voters 3. Running a conventional style campaign cannot survive demographic changes and a transforming technological landscape that has reshaped advertising 4. Institutions of African-American radio and readership of black newspapers are not as strong as they once were
    21. 21. LOOKING AHEAD 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. African-American churches, civic organizations, radio, and newspapers are critical to the Black Communities across Houston These institutions have to begin appealing to younger generations, current younger voters, and swing voters across racial and socio-economic lines (What do youth of the post-Civil Rights era value?) Gen-X/Gen Y etc… African-American candidates have to aggressively engage social media platforms to reach potential voters African-American candidates have to reform their platforms by taking an issue based approach as oppose to a race based one Focus on coalition building with Latinos/Hispanics as Blacks and Hispanics (they are the least segregated groups in Houston and surrounding cities/counties)
    22. 22. BIG DATA CONCERNS • Big data also includes the sometimes unethical gathering and merging of personal information • Major invasion of privacy without explicit permission • Selling data on preferences (i.e behaviors survey houses, businesses, even universities. • Software that codifies internet comments/tweets/activities into a psychological/emotional/political profile
    23. 23. Bibliography Arthur, L. “What Is Big Data”. (August 15, 2013). Retrieved from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/lisaarthur/ 2013/08/15/what-is-big-data/ Dannenbaum, K. (August 8, 2012). “What Does Big Data Mean for This Election?”. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keyadannenbaum/post_2941_b_1263802.html Frey, H. W. (2012). Metro America since 1980: Putting the Volatile 2000s in Perspective. Brookings Institute. Retrieved from: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/20%20population%20frey/ 0320_population_frey.pdf King, Bill. (March 9, 2013). Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/default/article/Decline-in-voter-turnout-may-be-handicap-to-Hall4342798.php Issenberg, S. (December 19, 2012). “How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters.” Retrieved from: http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big- data-to-rally-voters/ Leah, C. Scott, K., Purcell, K. et al Smith, A. (2010). Assessing the Cell Phone Challenge. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from: http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/05/20/assessing-the-cell-phone-challenge/ Marlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php? note_id=205925658858 Szkolar, D. (January 24, 2013). Data Mining in Obama’s 2012 Victory. Syracuse University. Retrieved from: http:// infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/

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